But these entrails are not for the traditional special elections. Instead, they’re for interpreting the public’s reaction to the RNC (Republican National Convention) of a few weeks ago:
The president raved about the event’s success as “a solidly sold out winner for Republicans” in a Truth Social post — despite reports of many empty seats.
Polling numbers in the weeks since have also painted a vastly different picture. RealClearPolitics’ Generic Congressional Vote, which averages results of other major polls, showed Democrats at 50.5 percent and Republicans trailing at 42.1 percent Tuesday.
It’s a steep increase from September 7 – two days before the convention – when Democrats held 48.1 percent compared to Republicans’ 42.3 percent. [Independent (U.K.) via yahoo!news]
This isn’t really surprising, but it may serve as a counterweight to Harry Enten’s observation that Republicans outperform polls in elections – which gives right-wing pundit Erick Erickson some relief in what must be a very stressful two years in his life.
But the Republican base is learning how badly an amateur President underperforms required standards, and my guess is that they’d rather survive in humility than go down in a burning zeppelin while giving liberals the finger.
Whether they’re ready to reconsider the tenets of their lives is another question, and I don’t think liberals are yet ready, either. But after some leakage, it’ll be reform or be replaced by a new Party on either side.
In the meantime, this report suggests to me that Americans are appalled at the President, and the reports of North Carolina being lost, of Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska being in trouble are real, that Trump campaigning in Oklahoma could even be read to suggest that Oklahoma’s wavering – which I doubt!
All speculation, but soon enough we’ll learn.
