The end is nigh. Sing it, kitty! In other news …
- A rated Monmouth University Poll’s last survey of Pennsylvania’s Senate race gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Oz. How broken is this race? Will Oz pull it out? Even thrash Fetterman? Emerson College may be indicating that, giving Oz a 48% to 46% lead. Susquehanna Polling and Research, B+ rated, believes Dr. Oz has a lead of 47.6% to 46.6%, or another dead heat. Remington, more on them below, has Dr. Oz ahead 47% to 44%, while B+ rated Suffolk University, while finding their recent debate may have hurt Fetterman due to his stroke-affected performance, gives Fetterman a 47% to 45% lead, or too close to really call. Notable: The contest is up for grabs, the survey shows, with an unusually high 19% of independents undecided, even as early voting has opened. 19% of independents are undecided? Are you yanking my starter cord? Or is this article from WaPo, quoting Dr. Oz as saying Senator McConnell runs the party and not the former President, a deal-breaker for MAGA voters in PA? Daily Kos’s Joan McCarter seems excited about it.
- B rated Remington gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 48% to 47% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. On RealClearPolitics, Remington Research Group has (R) after their name, which appears to mean they’re Republican leaning. If so, Kelly may have a somewhat larger lead than shown here. For instance, A+ rated Siena College just gave the Senator a six point lead. But GOP linked Insider Advantage makes it a dead heat at 48%.
- B/C rated University of Arkansas has issued a poll for the Arkansas Senator Boozman (R) vs Natalie James (D) race, but there are no numbers in the document. The RealClearPolitics link for it, though, claims Boozman now has a 33 point lead. While not surprising, it’s disappointing in that the two previous available polls gave Boozman a much more surprisingly slim 13 point lead. But University of Arkansas does not have an impressive rating, either.
- GOP linked Insider Advantage gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 51% to 45% lead over Rep Val Demings (D). This seems broadly consistent with other polls. Although this guy claims to have interviewed a Florida pollster who says Crist (D, formerly R) leads Governor DeSantis (R) in the Florida gubernatorial contest by six points, which would be a real outlier. I don’t doubt either of the guys, I just don’t believe the result, not only because most other polls show DeSantis way out ahead, but this guy gets his results from online polling.
- A rated SurveyUSA has Georgia Senator Warnock (D) up 49% to 43% over challenger Herschel Walker (R), while Republican pollster Remington turns the lead around, Walker 49%, Warnock 45%.
- Emerson College suggests the Kansas race has broken open, with Senator Moran (R) leading 54% to 33% over challenger Mark Holland (D). As Moran’s On The Issues page suggests he’s a rabid anti-abortionist, this is a little on the unbelievable side. I guess we’ll find out in five days.
- The Trump – McConnell feud continues in the GOP. This sort of thing, common in organizations that have as foundational principles arrogance, self-regard, greed, idolization of wealth, and etc, often leads to failure to reach organizational goals, and sometimes the dissolution of such organizations. Whether that happens here remains to be seen.
- GOP linked Trafalgar continues the Saint Anselm’s College findings by giving Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over New Hampshire Senator Hassan (D), 47% to 45.7%. Just call it a dead heat. However, trekking in outlier land, UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion gives Senator Hassan a 51% to 41% lead. That’s huge. And out of line with other pollsters. But Lowell’s is a B+ rated pollster, so sneezing is out of the question.
- The latest Marquette Law School Poll, A/B rated, gives Wisconsin Senator Johnson (R) a 52% to 46% lead over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Another six years of dread stupid rumors? Say it isn’t so! However, A+ rated Siena College gives Johnson a much smaller 47% to 45% lead, or technically a dead heat. And in this poll Johnson isn’t over the 50% hurdle.
- Remington is giving J. D. Vance (R) a 48% to 43% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in Ohio. And there’s Baldwin Wallace University, B/C rated, giving Ryan the advantage at 50.2% to 46%, which I don’t call an outlier, but I lay in bed at night debating the point. From The Center Square regarding this poll, Notable: Vance’s memoir Hillbilly Elegy that detailed his family’s crisis in Appalachian Ohio surrounding opioid addiction along with other economic and socioeconomic issues became wildly popular and led to a movie. To Sutton, “airing dirty laundry” of the region could create problems for Vance with voters in the area. “J.D. Vance became very well know because of his memoir and has been seen as a great success,” Sutton said. “But if you’re from these communities dealing with these issues, you look at your brethren here and he aired the dirty laundry. For the folks that live in those areas he committed a cardinal sin. I think those folks in those areas are either voting for Ryan or sitting this race out. So, one of the things I’m going to be looking at is the vote gap between those who vote for DeWine and those who vote for Vance.” I look forward to hearing if this hypothesis proves out.
- Emerson College gives North Carolina Rep Ted Budd (R) a 50% to 45% lead over Cheri Beasley (D). Balancing them, B- rated Civiqs has these two nominees tied at 49%, with a margin of error of ± 4.9 points.
- Finally, SurveyUSA shows Trudy Busch Valentine (D) closing the gap too slowly and too late in Missouri, as Eric Schmitt (R) leads 50% to 41% to replace the retiring Senator Blunt (R). A previous poll showed a 12 or 13 point lead, I forget which.
Last time? I spilled something on it. Here it is.
