Monthly Archives: October 2022

Via Professor Richardson, from last night’s televised January 6th hearing, a videotape of Speaker Pelosi being told that then-President Trump is trying to travel to the Capitol:

“I hope he comes, I’m gonna punch him out… I’ve been waiting for this. For trespassing on the Capitol grounds. I’m gonna punch him out, I’m gonna go to jail, and I’m gonna be happy.”

The glaring eye of publicity!

I’d have paid good money to see that. I’ll bet he thought he’d be seen as some sort of savior, and she’d have laid him right out.

I wonder if Pelosi now becomes the leading contender to be “that woman” to conservatives. (You’ll have to imagine the bulging eyes.) Clinton had been, but with her retirement she doesn’t have the public’s attention any longer.

From WaPo:

The delayed ninth episode of the January 6th panel was basically a recap of the incidents of January 6th, the culpability for said criminal incidents, and, based on that copious and sometimes chilling material, the unanimous decision by the panel to subpoena the former President for documentation and personal testifying concerning that day.

Given the number of times various panel suggested he may have engaged in illegal acts, I doubt the former President will agree to appear; he’d rather face a potential contempt of Congress charge, and since that must be approved by Congress, he’ll no doubt hope he can delay it until after the next Congress is sworn in – and the House is controlled by his minions.

So now we wait to see how Trump responds.

Unbelievable stamina in these polka dancers, I gotta say. Oh, we’re talking political races? Not nearly as much fun.

• The next televised January 6th hearing is scheduled for today. There’ll be more than a few candidates wondering if the news will be damaging to them – or their opponents.
• Republicans are tipping their hand that, if they win control of the House, they plan to blow up the government if President Biden doesn’t signoff on their legislation, and this may swing more votes to the Democrats. They must remind voters of the costs to them of a non-functional government. While this is more House than Senate focused, it helps bring into high relief the extreme methods that extremists, given partial power, may employ to achieve their ill-considered goals. Like, say, depriving Ukraine of support in their existential war with Russia.
• Georgia, the most popular State in the Union, features a Quinnipiac University Poll, A- rated, showing Senator Warnock (D) still leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), and by a hefty 52% – 45% gap, with what appears to be a ± 2.9 point margin of error. On the other hand, the most recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative poll gives the Senator only a 46% – 43% lead, within the margin of error of ± 3.1 points. Apropos nothing in particular, if you take Erick Erickson’s denigrative comments concerning the Senator seriously, then the Georgia race may be even more broken than the Pennsylvania race, as Walker’s mendacity and gibberish is surely unworthy of a vote, while Erickson insists on believing that abortion is baby-killing, and therefore Warnock is a fake Christian. Sigh.
• According to Politico, Senator Lee (R) of Utah has asked for the endorsement of fellow Utah Senator Mitt Romney (R), which seems a bit pathetic. He must be seeing his close ally, the former President, going down in flames, and is worried he’ll get caught by his flight scarf as he tries to jump out the cargo hatch of the Trump Airliner. Rumor has it that Romney turned him down, which should be no surprise, given the mutual antipathy of Romney and the former President. Close allies need not apply?
• I understand Senator Kelly (D) and challenger Blake Masters (R) of Arizona recently had a debate. It must have gone poorly for Masters, because OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, now gives Kelly a shockingly large 46% – 33% lead, and Libertarian (that’d be ‘L’) Marc Victor (L) gains a huge 15% of the vote. I confess to not seeing the debate, of course, so I can only guess that conservative independents, perhaps horrified at Masters’ performance, now favor Victor. Still, like good science, I wait confirmation by independent pollsters. I must say, though, that, in November, if Victor were to manage a second place finish, leaving Masters in third, the schadenfreude cast towards the former President and his minion, Peter Thiel, might overwhelm the magnetic bands protecting the Earth from infernal cosmic rays, killing all of us. But it’d be worth it.
• The first poll of the California Senate race is in, and unsurprisingly SurveyUSA, A rated, gives Senator Padilla (D), appointed to fill VP Harris’ seat when she resigned to join the Executive Branch, a 22 point lead over challenger Mark Meuser (R), 56% – 34%. Not only does Meuser not have much time to erase a tremendous deficit, his opponent is past the 50% mark. He’ll have to change a lot of minds and get all the undecideds. Seems unlikely. Incidentally, this race and poll covers both the special election, for the term lasting until January 3rd, 2023, and the general election, for the term starting January 3rd. A comparison to Harris’ 2016 election would be apples and oranges, as Harris beat another Democrat in the general election.
• Louisiana’s first poll is also in, conducted by A- rated Public Policy Polling, and gives Senator Kennedy (R) 53% of the vote, while in second place is Luke Mixon (D) with 16%. This result, if repeated in November, would permit Senator Kennedy to avoid a runoff, as this is a jungle primary state. Impressive? Kennedy won with slightly more than 60% in 2016, so he’s not improved on previous performance – but unlikely to lose this time around, either. Just to force a runoff, Mixon would have to persuade 4% of the Kennedy portion of the electorate to change their minds, or at least stay home.
• Nevada’s Senator Cortez Masto (D) may be back in the lead, according to B+ rated Suffolk University, 45.6% to 43.6%, ahead of challenger Adam Laxalt (R). Call it a dead heat, maybe even a dry heat. It’s Nevada, after all. But if the next poll, if there is one, shows Masto’s lead growing, it’ll suggest she’s connected to the Hispanic community successfully. That’s an utter necessity for her.
• Remember Democratic-aligned pollster Center Street PAC giving Rep Tim Ryan (D) an improbably large eleven point lead in Ohio? B+ rated Cygnal just gave his opponent, J. D. Vance (R), a two point lead of 46% – 44%. Our signal has improbable amounts of static. Ahem. That was inadvertent, I assure you. Anyways, there is a catch here, much like with Center Street PAC: Cygnal is characterized as a GOP polling firm, by a web site named American Greatness. I suspect the real answer lies somewhere near the middle of that range.
• The latest Sooner Poll, C+ rated, shows Senator Lankford’s (R) lead in Oklahoma over Madison Horn (D) has shrunk to 52% – 40%. In the prior poll, Horn’s portion of the poll was only 35%, while Lankford’s was still 52%, so that’s a 5 point gain, leaving Horn still with quite a mountain to climb. Or will Oklahoma voters be negatively impressed by Lankford’s plan to strip away drug price benefits that were just passed? I think a 12 point lead, including 2 that have to be convinced to leave Lankford, is too hard to do in three weeks or less, but the game isn’t over just yet.
• The Sooner Poll also covered the Senate special election contest in Oklahoma between Rep Mullin (R) and former Rep Kendra Horn (D), and Mullin’s lead has shrunk from 12 points to 9 points, 51-42. Mullin’s number shrank by a point, which is not adequate – five would be better. Can the former Representative pull the upset? I doubt it, I doubt it strongly. But, again, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility.

Here’s the smoking hole in the Earth from the last time I did this. Sorry ’bout that.

Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. Of course. The kaiju have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news:

• In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are sponsoring a Senate bill named Protect Drug Innovation Act, which is “To repeal prescription drug price control provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.” As this part of the Inflation Reduction Act is both popular and beneficial to the elderly segment of the electorate, this seems an unnecessary risk on the part of these Senators. But can Schumer perform a bit of aikido on them? He might grant it discussion and a vote, against their expectation, thus gathering material for their and other Senate races to benefit their opponents. That, however, would require confidence in how members of his own caucus would vote.
• Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to hold a lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), according to A/B rated Saint Anselm College. They give her double the lead that conservative-leaning Trafalgar has accorded her, a lead of six points, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points. Notable: In a successful tactic sure to be become more widespread in coming cycles, Democratic groups spent millions of dollars to help secure the nominations of explicitly pro-Trump Republican candidates. These nominees now face a general electorate in which 52% of voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the former president. Saint Anselm is premature in this conclusion. The fact you got who you wanted doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact, an extremist is more likely to interfere, post-election, in a destructive manner with the inauguration. And some GOP state parties are entirely controlled by extremists who want little to do with GOP moderates, so ensuring the nomination of a moderate may be more productive. This point seems less applicable to Democrat state parties, as lefty extremists have not seen the success of their far-right counterparts. The domestic cultural history just isn’t there.
• CBS News Polls/YouGov are giving Senator Johnson (R) of Wisconsin a 1 point lead over Lt. Governor Barnes (D), 50% – 49%. Call it a dead heat. Notable: Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they’re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they’re very enthusiastic about voting. Enthusiastic to vote for Johnson, who runs around threatening old, stable social net programs while spewing conspiracy rumors. My neighbors to the East are decidedly an odd bunch, but I’m not surprised, given their recent election habits.
• Former President Trump’s Make America Great Again Inc super PAC is finally getting involved in four hot races, Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Georgia and Arizona. But will these political ads inspire voters to vote for his candidates – or motivate them to vote for the Democrats?
• It occurs to me that candidate Herschel Walker (R) of Georgia is not only endorsed by the former President, but was personally recruited by the former President. Walker failing to beat Senator Warnock (D) would be a tremendous blow to the political prestige of the former President, and given how Walker’s reputation is in tatters, there’s a real chance that Walker will not only lose, but actually be routed, despite Trump’s late efforts. It’s up to Georgia voters to decide if Walker is up to the job of Senator.
• Speaking of Georgia, Emerson College has Senator Warnock (D) up by two points, 48% to 46%, over Herschel Walker (R). Notable, maybe: Since the August Emerson Georgia poll, Warnock’s support increased four points and Walker’s support decreased by two points. If Emerson is as accurate as their A- rating suggests, then that’s significant, but as the gap is less than their margin of error of ± 3 points, and even the best pollsters don’t always get it right, it sounds more like just noise in the signal.
• Alaska Senator Murkowski (R) has gained support from a new super PAC named Country First, created by retiring Representative and member of the January 6th Committee Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). He did threaten to stay in politics, remember. But will word of this support play positively or negatively with the Alaska electorate? Beats me.
• Utah’s Evan McMullin (I) has also gained Country First’s support; again, I don’t know if this is a positive or a negative for the candidate. And Utah has a new poll, again from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, but conducted by B rated pollster Dan Jones & Associates (a detail which I’d missed before), showing challenger McMullin (I) losing ground as Senator Lee (R) leads 41% – 37% with a margin of error of ± 3.46 points. Notable: It looks like 8% of those surveyed are looking at other candidates, and, significantly, 12% are undecided. That’s where McMullin’s gold is located, in that group of undecided. He doesn’t have to convince Lee voters to change their minds, which can be difficult. But it’s not good that McMullin lost two points of support relative to Lee. Also notable: [The survey] found 97% of those surveyed say they are likely to vote, including 83% who say they will definitely vote. … According to the poll, Utahns who identified themselves as moderates represent the highest percentages of undecided voters. While McMullin is heading in the wrong direction, he’s not lost yet, and there are still plenty of votes to scoop up, and voters who may be inclined his way. I suppose the question will be whether moderates think McMullin is acceptable, or if he’s too conservative for their taste.
• Iowa finally has a new poll, but it’s bad news for challenger Admiral Mike Franken (D). Emerson College gives Senator Grassley (R), full of mendacity and confusion, a 49% to 38% lead, with a margin of error of ± 3.1%. Do I sound disappointed in my neighbors to the south? I’d like to give them more credit than this. But, as I said, I figured this race would get away from the Democrats.
• A rated Marist Poll gives Colorado Senator Bennet (D) a 48% to 41% lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R). While this race is not out of reach, O’Dea must be aware of Bennet’s proximity to the magical number of 50%. These numbers are much like previous polls, suggesting O’Dea cannot find traction. It’s a pity, since he appears to be a moderate, and the failure of a moderate may be food for the extremists.
• If you’re interested in tactics, WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin thinks Rep Ryan (D) just gave a master class in a debate with J. D. Vance. The Ohio race may be the nation’s closest Senate race this cycle, although Wisconsin is giving it a run for its money.
• I just noticed FiveThirtyEight is recognizing Center Street PAC as a partisan pollster for the Democratic Party – see the tool tips on the above link. Please discount their polls by at least several points.

Last time I did this, something terrible happened. I forget what.

On this warm, windy Fall day I sighted a lone morning glory.

And one of these.

The warnings to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia continues:

“As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I will not green light any cooperation with Riyadh until the Kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine,” Menendez said in a statement first obtained by POLITICO. “Enough is enough.” …

“There simply is no room to play both sides of this conflict — either you support the rest of the free world in trying to stop a war criminal from violently wiping … an entire country off of the map, or you support him,” Menendez added. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia chose the latter in a terrible decision driven by economic self-interest.” [Politico]

But it’s worth noting that Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, absolute; a specimen of autocracy. The appeal to free world here isn’t moral, but economic, a warning to Saudi Arabia that it may lose access to lucrative markets if it chooses to side with a fellow autocracy.

Autocracies are not natural allies. Founded on little more than a need to gratify an enormous personal ego, they see other autocracies as rivals and existential dangers. The world is zero-sum, in their eyes. Whether Saudi Arabia chooses to go with Russia or the free world depends on where the most gratification of Muhammad bin Salman’s ego lies, and whether he thinks the USA can follow through.

Which is to say, I have no idea which way Saudi Arabia’s going to flail next.

From AA:

Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority plans to raise the transit fees for ships passing the waterway by 15% at the start of 2023.

In a statement, the Canal Authority’s chairman, Osama Rabie, said the transit fees for bulk and tourist ships will also be raised by 10% and will also be applied as of January 2023.

Rabie cited the increase in fees to current global inflation, which increased the operational costs and the costs of navigation services provided in the canal.

Avoiding long supply lines means avoiding factors that are out of producers’ control.

Over the last week or so, YouTube has convinced me that the urge to be pure, no matter how it’s defined, is more or less a disaster. In this particular case, the royal families – or family, if you prefer – of Europe decayed, as they kept the throne(s) in the family via sanctioned incest. To be succinct, the royal diseases sank their futures, and, in some cases, they even became disfigured monsters, convinced God favored them even as their offspring died early and tragically, and wars left them in ruins.

I see the same thing happening with abortion. As the extremists have taken control of the Republican Party and have tried, with varying degrees of success, to decree that abortion will not be permitted, the Jell-O is squeezing away from them. Their long-observed and discussed epistemic bubble has interfered with their ability to integrate simple realities with their political philosophies, and is beginning to lead to reports such as this one in Politico:

Who needs a funny caption?

Big Trouble In Little China (1986) is an old favorite of mine, but, sadly, it falls into that category of rose-tinted glasses movies. Yes, rather than howling with laughter, I chuckled, sometimes shaking my head, and I confess I wondered if the impetuously censorious among the current young generation would shake their fingers and scream in constructed outrage at certain points.

Why, it’s elemental, my dear Thunder!

This is farce upon farce. The first layer farce is the sendup of Chinese culture, as we’re first introduced to a single Chinese street gang, intent on kidnapping a green eyed Chinese immigrant at the airport, which is swiftly, if confusingly, followed by an encounter with two Chinese street gangs, battling for control of the byways of Chinatown in San Francisco, whose tidy little war is interrupted by the appearance of magical king-fu characters out of myth: Thunder, Lightning, and Rain. Yet, for all their power, they are only minions for the really bad guy here: Lo Pan, an ancient and cursed sorcerer who leads a double existence, one as an ancient man in a wheelchair, barely breathing and cackling in a most demented way, the other as a ghost of a mature man, full of power, but unable to feel anything.

And he’s got hormones. In fact, he must sacrifice a green-eyed wife to the God of the East, Ching Dai, which would be tough on both of them. But there’s a way around this!

Into this mess drops Jack Burton, American truck driver and commentator on life, a man who overdosed one too many times on swagger and sangfroid. While helping buddy Wang Chi pick up his fiancee, green eyed Miao Yin, from the airport, Jack meets Gracie Law, a green-eyed lawyer intent on protecting the civil rights of another immigrant. Into this tableau intrudes the Lords of Death, looking to kidnap a victim for the Chinese slave trade.

From the middle of an airport.

So Miao Yin becomes their victim. The ensuing chase, them in their hot sports car, Jack and Chi in Jack’s monster tractor sans trailer, leads to the happy little street war, interrupted by the aforementioned kung-fu Gods, where Jack and Chi encounter Lo Pan. Jack is up for anything, but even his sangfroid, his swagger, is stressed by kung fu masters who fly around on chunks of lightning.

But Miao Yin, fiancee, marriage. So it’s off they go, with an increasingly unsustainable swagger on Jack’s part. And a second green eyed woman, Gracie Law, possibly to become wife number two, because, after all, evil sorcerers are always bigamists.

Well, we can tell the special effects budget ran short, as one character explodes, just out of sight, and the stage crew is kept busy throwing chunks of cabbage out, rather than special effects innards. The acting is effective, and the plot keeps you guessing, or at least giggling.

The whole thing is silly and depends on the charisma of Jack and, crazily, Egg Shen, a good guy sorcerer not yet mentioned, but its age shows, at least a little bit. Not in terms of racism, but it simply feels like the themes it is exploring are too obscure, too simple.

But it is good if you just need to pass a couple of hours.

Sweet thistles planted, we hope to harvest them by the time the horses come home from the fields, dragging the farmers behind them. In other news:

• Remember Michael Steele’s Pink Wave remark? Here’s some tentative evidence for it, via Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos: Two Civiqs tracking polls suggest that Republicans and Donald Trump are in a newly precarious position with both independent women and men, but likely for different reasons. Not dispositive, but interesting. Visit the link for more information.
• Filed under SOMEONE WAS LISTENING: Following the Politico report that national Democrats are failing to spend on the close race in North Carolina, the Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Majority Leader Schumer, is now … reserving an additional $4 million in TV ads in the race, according to spending figures shared first with NBC News. I think North Carolina is a prime pickup opportunity in the Senate for the Democrats, not only this cycle, but in 2026, when Senator Tillis’ (R) term comes to an end. Cheri Beasley (D) winning this cycle would certainly give the Democratic candidate in 2026 some needed momentum.
• A CNN Poll gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 51% – 45% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). CNN gets a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.4 points.
• Another CNN Poll calls the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto and challenger Adam Laxalt a dead heat. The actual numbers show Laxalt up by two points, 48% – 46%. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.7 points. Can Masto re-energize the Hispanic vote?
• An InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia gives Senator Warnock (D) a 47% – 44% lead over scandal-ridden challenger Herschel Walker (R). As the poll has a margin of error of ± 4.2 points, that suggest this race is a dead heat. InsiderAdvantage has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. But there’s also gossip: Walker Campaign Political Director Taylor Crowe has been fired, reportedly for leaking information to the media. And another poll, by A rated SurveyUSA, gives Senator Warnock a 50% – 38% lead over Walker. This seems seriously out of line with other polls, but SurveyUSA is A rated, so it must be taken seriously. Walker’s campaign is burning, are Republican officials paying attention? Or have they given up?
• Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) continues to lead challenger Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania according to a Monmouth University poll, 48% – 43%. Notable: Few specific reasons emerge in describing reluctance to support the Democrat, but it is worth noting that only one probable Fetterman voter in the poll mentioned health concerns as a reason they might not support him. Fetterman’s misstep at primary time, when he suffered a stroke, is apparently not a big deal.
• Oh, yeah, add California to the list of Senate seats for which no polling apparently exists.
• Colorado Senator Bennet (D) leads challenger Joe O’Dea (R) 50% – 41%, according to B rated Data for Progress. It’s margin of error is ± 3 points, but I have to wonder: … conducted a survey of 1,005 likely voters in Colorado using SMS and web panel respondents. Is this really a reliable survey method? I admit I’m not up on Internet methodology. If it’s accurate, O’Dea is running out of time to persuade independent Bennet voters to change their minds.
• Politico via MSN: Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is pulling millions of dollars in spending from New Hampshire’s race to shore up other candidates across the board, as Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan continues to poll ahead of her challenger. Much like Senators Kelly, Cortez Masto, and Murray, Senator Hassan was considered an opportunity for a Senate seat pickup by Republicans. Apparently, Republican leaders are finding extremist candidate Don Bolduc is not an effective force in New Hampshire. His flip-flopping, however, has been impressive. Too bad the Olympics didn’t make it an Olympic sport, eh?
• Oregon is finally getting a Senate poll, and it’s Emerson College Polling, giving incumbent Senator Wyden (D) a 51% – 32% lead over challenger Jo Rae Perkins (R). Six years ago Wyden won by 23 points, so a 19 point lead is no surprise at all.
• Indiana’s Senate race now has a second poll, and there may be something going on here. ARW Strategies is giving Senator Todd Young (R) only a two point lead over challenger Mayor Thomas McDermott (D), 39% – 37%, in a race for a seat that Young won easily by ten points six years ago. The problem? ARW is unknown to FiveThirtyEight, so it’s difficult to judge whether or not this poll should be taken seriously. ARW thinks Todd will end up winning easily, but if McDermott is this close with four more weeks to go, and a lot of undecideds still available, this may be an upset in the making.

When the sweet thistles were harvested, we buried the link to previous news in a bale of it, completely by accident, and then dug for hours to find it. Here. Brush off the debris first or –

It’s a dumpster fire, and, of course, you know it’s the Walker campaign in Georgia, following multiple revelations: his funding of an abortion several years ago, which he fervently denies, and his failure to follow through on suing the reporting news media, finally followed by a semi-admission, and his grown and acknowledged son, Christopher, a conservative himself, repudiating his earlier support for Walker, which are merely follow-ons to Walker’s absolutist support for a national ban on abortion, his utter gibberish when it came to the Uvalde tragedy, his mendacity when it comes to being a member of law enforcement, and his inadequacies, to be polite, in regard to other national priorities.

But, having seen bits and pieces of his interview by Hugh Hewitt, a prominent conservative pundit, perhaps the worst part of this firestorm is the simple fact that he’s getting exposure that the power-holders of Georgia, the independent voters, are going to see.

What will they see?

The Senate requires members who are intelligent, articulate, and systematic in their thought processes. While Walker may be intelligent, he’s neither articulate nor particularly systematic. He comes across very poorly.

And that won’t impress independent voters who, most likely, will be aware that they bear the responsibility for selecting an excellent Senator, not an old football player eager to relives his glory days.

This exposure of his patent inadequacies, not so much as his apparent hypocrisy on abortion, may doom him.

Published in Journal of Ethnopharmacology in 1986, via ScienceDirect:

A multidisciplinary approach to ritual enema scenes on ancient Maya pottery

Apparently only the abstract is freely available. I must admit I’m considering buying the paper. Maybe after reading it I can use it as a Christmas gift for my Arts Editor. Hmm.

And I did find this on a brief search, although the source appears to have disappeared.

Autotomy:

In the poem, Szymborska reflects on the creature’s process of autotomy, casting off a part of the body while under threat, through the lens of survival and mortality. [Poets & Writers]

Specializing in the whimsical selection of non-authoritative sources.

Noted in the Feedback column of NewScientist (24 September 2022, paywall), which, in this particular case, concerned itself, concerningly, with the Ig Nobel prizes for this year. Or perhaps 1986. I’m not sure.

The Biology prize went to Solimary García-Hernández and Glauco Machado. They studied whether constipation affects the mating prospects of scorpions and, if so, how. The scorpions’ plight arises when they respond to a predator’s attack by discarding their tail segments – an action called autotomy. García-Hernández and Machado explain: “After autotomy, individuals lose nearly 25% of their body mass and the last portion of the digestive tract, including the anus, which prevents defecation and leads to constipation.” Despite which, love, or whatever you call it, finds a way.

I wonder if the royal family of Saudi Arabia’s a bit disconcerted:

From unanswered questions about 9/11 & the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, to conspiring w/ Putin to punish the US w/ higher oil prices, the royal Saudi family has never been a trustworthy ally of our nation. It’s time for our foreign policy to imagine a world without their alliance.

— Senator Dick Durbin (@SenatorDurbin) October 6, 2022

Given the military inadequacies of Russia, vividly demonstrated in Putin’s War, I know that, if I were a member of the House of Saud, I’d be wondering if Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), de facto ruler and heir apparent to the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, was leading the family into a disaster.

Not that I think any of them are capable of taking MBS out. MBS has proven to be a superior practicioner of royal intrigue, royal politics, and he’s probably got the family firmly under his thumb.

But it still makes him a target. From royal family infighting, to the murder of journalist Jamal Kashoggi of WaPo and the Yemen War, which has been spectacularly unsuccessful, to attempting to excessively profit on the American addiction to fossil fuels in the face of President Biden, he’s made a number of enemies. Having Durbin make explicit that the best weaponry available for import into the kingdom may suddenly be withheld is not only an existential threat, it’s also a blow to MBS’ prestige. And there’s no guarantee that China will come riding to his rescue – or that their weaponry is any better than Russia’s.

Messing with the Biden Administration, which has handled Putin’s War about as well as we could have hoped, is more or less an unforced error that really speaks to his long-term survival odds falling.

I don’t know how poorly King Salman is doing, and if his orders would be followed if he chose to have MBS removed from the position of Crown Prince. The Independent reported he had Alzheimer’s back in 2015, but whether that’s accurate, I don’t know. If he does have Alzheimer’s then he may be nothing more than a figurehead, as rumors suggest.

The future for Saudi Arabia and OPEC is hard to predict.

Rumors of dragons abound, chasing maidens and gophers about. Quite pestilent. In other news, their prey keep running for office.

• Politico has an article on the potentially defective strategy employed by national Democratic organizations insofar as advertising goes for the Senate race in North Carolina.
• Emerson College gives Senator Murray (D) a 51% – 42% lead over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington’s Senate seat race, which are numbers similar to other recent polls. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points.
• In Arizona a CBS News/YouGov Poll shows Senator Kelly (D) leading challenger Blake Masters (R) 51% – 48%, with a margin of error ± 3.8 points. This is a smaller margin that most other recent numbers. YouGov is rated B+.
• A Mason/Dixon Poll has Senator Rubio (R) of Florida leading challenger Rep Demings (D), 47% – 41%. Mason/Dixon is A- rated, so this must be of strong concern for Demings.
• In case you were wondering, North Dakota, Oregon, Hawaii, Louisiana, Idaho, and Kentucky remain unpolled with regard to their Senate races, at least that I can find. Bah.
• There is an overview of Oregon candidates for Senate available, though. I kinda liked the truck driver; the Green Party candidate seemed naive.
• Trafalgar continues to go against the grain by giving Senator Hassan (D) a slim 3 point lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 48.2% to 45.0%, in New Hampshire. Other pollsters are awarding larger gaps, and thus more credit to New Hampshire voters.
• In Ohio, unknown and perhaps suspect Center Street PAC gives Rep Ryan (D) a shocking 49% to 38% lead among “likely voters.” An 11 point lead in the Ohio race is out of line with other pollsters, some of which have shown Vance with a lead. Is Center Street PAC’s methodology flawed, or do they know something that escapes the other pollsters?
• Politico analyzes House special elections and comes up with this: The race in New York’s 19th District wasn’t unique. A POLITICO analysis of turnout data before and after Roe v. Wade was struck down in June shows that voters in rural counties were less motivated to cast ballots than those in more Democratic-leaning suburbs and cities after the Supreme Court decision. Though special elections are not a crystal ball, that could spell potential trouble for the GOP if the trend continues to the midterms in November, because rural voters, who overwhelmingly supported former President Donald Trump, are a key constituency for Republican candidates. As ever, though, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And it raises an important question: why is their turnout lower? Have the rural women, realizing that all forms of abortion, and possibly even medical birth control, are suddenly endangered, but unable to persuade themselves to vote Democrat, simply staying home? One would think that, having “won” the stripping of Constitutional protection of abortion rights via Dobbs, they’d realize now they need to take a second step.
• SDSU (South Dakota State University) Poll, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, gives incumbent Senator Thune (R) a 51% to 31% lead over challenger Brian Bengs (D) in South Dakota. That’s overwhelming and leaves only the shouting, no doubt by former President Trump, who had vowed to have Thune primaried and out of politics, so this’ll be another failure for Trump, even if he endorses Bengs. Not impossible with the Trump Lump of Hatred, but his endorsement power isn’t what he thinks it might be. The only surprise in the poll is that Gov Kristi Noem (R), thought to have Presidential ambitions and be more popular than Thune, is actually in a close race, leading 45 to 42 over challenger Jamie Smith (D). That’s within the margin of error. It’s an idle question, as I doubt Noem’s performance will impact Thune vs Bengs, but did Noem’s poor decisions vis a vis Covid impact this election?
• Peter Welch (D), vying for the open Vermont Senate seat, leads competitor Gerald Malloy (R) by an astonishing 62% – 28% margin, according to the UNH Survey Center, which is rated B-. That’s an abyss in politics, and more fingers than I currently possess. For comparison, the only other poll I’ve found for the Vermont Senate race is by Trafalgar, and has Welch also leading the relatively moderate Malloy, but by less than 8 points. This is a bit crazy.
• This is neither final nor of direct effect for the November elections, but Senator Sasse (R-NE), a former Midlands University president, has reportedly been offered the same job at the University of Florida, and has accepted. There are still a few steps to be taken by the University of Florida. Assuming all goes well, Sasse would resign his seat by the end of the year. Does this have immediate meaning? No. His seat will be filled by appointment by a Republican governor, Pete Ricketts, and the in-fighting in Republican ranks may be quite entertaining if Ricketts is not wisely expeditious. But, eventually, a special election will need to take place, and that will give Nebraska Democrats a chance to make some noise, inspired by Kansas Democrats.

The dead snapdragon news is here. Dragons snapping their fingers, it’s quite a sight, but they’re so competitive that they just can’t get the synchrony right.

NASA’s Juno probe has had a flyby of Jupiter’s moon Europa, and here is an intriguing picture:

Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI

The highest-resolution photo NASA’s Juno mission has ever taken of a specific portion of Jupiter’s moon Europa reveals a detailed view of a puzzling region of the moon’s heavily fractured icy crust.

The image covers about 93 miles (150 kilometers) by 125 miles (200 kilometers) of Europa’s surface, revealing a region crisscrossed with a network of fine grooves and double ridges (pairs of long parallel lines indicating elevated features in the ice). Near the upper right of the image, as well as just to the right and below center, are dark stains possibly linked to something from below erupting onto the surface. Below center and to the right is a surface feature that recalls a musical quarter note, measuring 42 miles (67 kilometers) north-south by 23 miles (37 kilometers) east-west. The white dots in the image are signatures of penetrating high-energy particles from the severe radiation environment around the moon.

Whether or not Herschel Walker, candidate for the Georgia Senate seat and staunch opponent of abortion, actually funded an abortion may not matter that much. For all that it looks like hypocrisy, there’s at least one report that a church of evangelicals gave Walker a standing ovation in the wake of the report.

And that leads to a subject I’ve mentioned before, that of redemption. In my view, it’s one of the great favorite themes of Americans, and justly so, as it indicates a faith in humanity’s ability to recognize mistakes, to change one’s beliefs and one’s actions as a consequence of that recognition. To improve one’s moral clarity, and the harmony between belief and action, is always worthy of admiration.

But redemption requires more than a simple assertion. I would remind the earnest students of the evangelical tradition that redemption is traditionally accompanied by moral progress on more than one front, as well as an expression of remorse.

Has Mr. Walker achieved that?

By all reports, he has not. His mendacity concerning law enforcement has continued, along with his activities in the private sector.

I suggest that, regardless of his abortion beliefs vs his actions, his overall behavior pattern, and the gibberish he often spouts on issues of governance, disqualifies him from the position to which he aspires.

Applause for correcting a moral position, even one I don’t agree with, is fine. Rewarding him, despite his other moral failings, and a long history of family failings, in the absence of any demonstrated genius, or even competence, in the arena of governance, is quite another.

Beware assuming the enemy of your enemies is your friend. Folks, we’re all Americans here, and we should be selecting those best qualified, not the worst in a fit of misplaced anger and hatred. The election of Walker would merely demonstrate the moral degradation of American politics today.

Are they changing their minds this much?

• The GOP, dominated by the former President whose willingness to do Russian President Putin’s bidding was obvious and well-known, appears to be ambivalent about President Biden’s willingness to support Ukraine. Remember, much of the GOP’s governing philosophy has been built on Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) notion, no doubt originating from former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), that the denial of a victory for the Democrats was the equivalent of a victory for the Republicans.McConnell himself has made an exception for aid to Ukraine, but as this WaPo story makes clear, there are conservative elements that are so locked into McConnell’s primitive philosophy that they remain willing to back the murderous dictator of Russia. Money quote:
  

  The Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday tweeted — and then hours later deleted — a message that called on Democrats to “end the gift-giving to Ukraine” while featuring a fluttering Russian flag. The tweet also referred to “Ukraine-occupied territories,” appearing to legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims to annex provinces based on a referendum that the U.S. and allies view as illegal.

  The point in this context? Public support for Ukraine is undeniable, and if conservatives are perceived to be out of step with the public, Republican candidates endorsing an anti-Ukraine stance may find that it costs them independents’ votes.

  They might even find themselves being asked why they’d rather fight the Russians at Niagara Falls, rather than have the Ukraine Army boot the Russians and Putin out of Ukraine. That’d be uncomfortable.

• Nevada’s Senator Cortez Masto (D) may be the most endangered Democratic Senator in this election cycle, as this NBC News article makes clear. Notable: [Somos PAC President Melissa Morales] said after she spent time canvassing she didn’t hear waffling voters turning to Republicans; instead, they said they’d vote either for Democrats or stay home. Latinos interviewed by NBC News supported that sentiment. As confident as this report may make Republicans in Nevada, and even country-wide, it’s also discouraging for them: Republicans don’t even get consideration as an alternative. Also notable: The new word Latinx, frequently savaged by critics of the elites, who reportedly are trying to supersede the traditional Latinos and Latinas with Latinx, much to the irritation of the Hispanic community, does not appear in this article, neither in quotes nor in prose. Those quoted know better? Disapprove? Or had their verbiage altered post-interviews? That’s unknown. OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, has produced a poll showing challenger Adam Laxalt (R) leading Senator Cortez Masto (D) 45% to 43%, which is within the margin of error of ± 3.6 points.
• B/C rated Meredith College agrees with Civitas: In North Carolina, the race between Budd (R) and Beasley (D) is too close to call. Their latest poll shows Budd up 41.3% to 41%. Notable: There is a great deal of enthusiasm for voting in the 2022 Midterm Elections. Over two-thirds of North Carolinians say they plan on voting before or on Election Day. Democrats and Republicans seem equally energized. Over 83 percent of North Carolinians indicate that they are likely to vote with over 85 percent of Democrats and Republicans indicating a strong likelihood of voting. This is versus 53% turnout in the midterms of 2018. And, contrary to the predictions of the right, One of the issues that is driving the expected high turnout this year is the Supreme Court decision in the Dobbs case … Chiming in is WRAL News/SurveyUSA, the latter A rated, which claims a 43% to 42% lead for the Republican Budd, and a “credibility interval” of 4.4 percentage points. But I have a problem with this poll: The online survey … I’m not sure how easy it is to game an online poll, as I’m out of date on this sort of thing, but it doesn’t sound secure. But the numbers match a number of other surveys.
• Chris Hayes notes that Pennsylvania Senate candidate Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) is under constant attack by Fox News. I suppose when you’re frantic to earn back the favor of mob-boss Trump, you’ll do anything. It did occur to me that Fetterman’s dark charisma may appeal to conservatives, and those that are wavering might actually vote for him, which Fox News is trying to avert. An interesting thought. A Suffolk University poll does show Fetterman with a 46% to 40% lead. Meanwhile, WaPo (you’ll have to search the link) reports Fetterman is beginning to remind voters of Dr. Oz’s dubious practices as a celebrity doctor, including his endorsement of the fake Covid-19 treatment hydrochloroquine. Money quote from Fetterman: … a malicious scam artist. It’s difficult to disagree with that assessment. Is this a knockout blow? Or are you Erick Erickson, convinced Dr. Oz has the lead?
• A Siena College poll suggests Senator Rubio (R) has a seven point lead over challenger Rep Val Demings (D), 48%-41%, with a ± 4.5 point margin of error. Siena is A rated, making that a believable result.
• A rated Fox News Poll’s latest has Senator Warnock (D) of Georgia leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 46% – 41%. Are hopes of flipping Warnock’s seat fading? If it were a different Republican, probably not. The only thing keeping Walker in the race has been absurd Republican loyalty to the Party’s candidates and Walker’s old University of Georgia glory. Will young Georgia voters follow in their elders’ footsteps? But now an accusation of Walker funding an abortion has surfaced, and an adult son that he’s acknowledged may be very unhappy with him, although of course his account may have been hacked by malicious forces. Walker’s threatening to sue the accuser of him funding an abortion, but if he does, wins the election, but loses the court case, he’ll almost certainly be a one-term Senator, barring amazing work in the Senate. That, in turn, would be exceedingly difficult regardless of who controls the Senate, as the Democrats would ignore his priorities, and the Republicans are dead-set against governing at all. But if he doesn’t sue, he makes his current Senate run even more difficult. In chess, they call this a ‘fork,’ where two pieces are threatened and the choice is really unpleasant. I think Walker is forked.
• I cite polls a lot. Those and the political events that affect people’s lives are about all there is to go on for forecasting elections. And now Richard Hanania doesn’t think polls are any good, either, although he’s more nuanced than that. Darn it. Anyone got a dead goat, complete with intestines?

Old, worn out tires news is here.

My Arts Editor pointed me at this shot, which I think is about as good as a smartphone is going to do these days.

The mechanism on which they’re perched is our hi-tek rain gauge.

skralyx on Daily Kos summarizes some medical research news concerning one of my two primary illnesses, diabetes:

It seems that a common bacterium found in the human gut makes a protein that looks just enough like insulin to cause the immune system to attack not only this bacterium, but indeed to attack insulin and the pancreas itself.  This process could very well be one of the main triggers of Type 1 diabetes, and knowing this would substantially change the way we think about this disease.  And it all may be just a crazy accident of nature.

I’m Type II, not Type I, but I’ve been theorizing, from the perspective of a software engineer with 40 years experience analyzing partially understood complex systems, that researchers who came up with the Type II definition of diabetes were operating with defective (or incomplete, if you prefer) information. My suspicion, based on responses to questions I’ve asked, my observations of how human system analysts react to defective information and the pressure to produce results, and the vague explanations of Type II – cells fail to respond to insulin properly, really? All of them? – that the final explanation may turn out to be far simpler: an over representation of certain types of bacteria in the gut overproduce glucose, leading to hyperglycemia, since we know that the pancreas can only produce so much insulin.

But, like I said, I’m just a software engineer. I don’t even play a doctor on TV, as the old disclaimer goes.

But this article on Type I gives me hope that Type II will have a similar explanation, and that a targeted dose of antibiotics, and, in the case of Type I, a reset of the immune system results in a cure. Then we won’t have to worry about pharma companies raising prices on insulin any longer.

Scientific research can be even harder than I thought:

Laboratory mice tend to be more stressed when they can smell men, making them behave differently in experiments depending on whether they are handled by a man or a woman. The finding raises important questions about past research using mice, since animal studies generally don’t control for an experimenter’s sex.

Todd Gould at the University of Maryland began investigating this issue after his team couldn’t replicate a simple lab result. The experiment involved a “forced swim test”, in which researchers place mice in a tank of water and see how long they keep trying to swim for. When they stop swimming, the researchers take them out, unharmed.

In previous tests with male experimenters, mice tried to stay afloat for longer if they were given ketamine, an antidepressant. But when Polymnia Georgiou, a female researcher who was working in Gould’s team, carried out the test, the mice gave up quickly regardless of whether they were given ketamine. [“The sex of the researcher can influence results of mouse experiments,” Jonathan Moens, NewScientist (17 September 2022, paywall)]

In retrospect, it makes sense. But I still insist on being flabbergasted.

Bifurcation:

A division into two branches; a forking. …

Bifurcation is the act of splitting something into two branches, or an example of a situation where something splits or there is a fork.

Bifurcation is based on the verb bifurcate, which means to divide or fork into two branches. These words are most often used in technical and scientific contexts, such as engineering and medicine.

Example: The hiking trail has a bifurcation about three miles in; make sure you go down the left branch. [Dictionary.com]

It seems a bit odd that I’ve made it this far without really having much of a clue about bifurcation and its root.

Noted in the Feedback column, NewScientist (17 September 2022, paywall):

World Standards Day 2022 will soon be upon us. The public’s enthusiasm for this annual bifurcated event, which celebrates the technical rules and regulations that keep society running, seems undimmed by the covid-19 pandemic.

The bifurcation is geographical. This year, most of the world will celebrate World Standards Day on 14 October. This date is specified by a consortium of three groups: the International Organization for Standardization, the International Electrotechnical Commission and the International Telecommunication Union. The goal is to recognise the importance of international standards.

Meanwhile, the US Celebration of World Standards Day will take place on 13 October. Its date is specified by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) and the official theme is “Sustaining the U.S. Standards Model and American Standards Leadership”.

Well. I think that’s a reprimand. Maybe.

They should all take a ski trip, and the survivors can be declared winners. That’s sort of like the former President offering to take the lead on ending Putin’s War. In other news:

• Former Maryland Lt. Governor and Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele (R) believes there is a “pink wave” coming in November, disregarded or undetected by pollsters. The pink wave are women who don’t usually vote, but will vote Democratic this cycle. Why disregarded? My guess, unsupported by experience or evidence, is that pollsters adjust raw data based on previously detected factors, and this wouldn’t be supported by previous occurrences. If Democrats do win big in November, then Steele gets credit for an insight I haven’t seen mentioned elsewhere.
• In perhaps an iconic mark of the incompetent, even childish, amateur at work, former President Trump broke Party discipline and has attacked fellow leader Senator McConnell (R) for his support of the Continuing Resolution that is keeping the government up and running during these days of hurricane (Ian) and war (Putin’s War), according to CNN/Politics:
  

  Former President Donald Trump on Friday night directly ridiculed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, saying on his social media platform that the Kentucky Republican had a “death wish” for supporting “Democrat sponsored bills.”

  Trump, in his Truth Social post, also mocked McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao – who was born in Taiwan and served as Trump’s secretary of transportation – referring to her as McConnell’s “China loving wife, Coco Chow!”

  So is this the sort of thing that’ll break the Republicans in half? While Trump’s MAGA voters may try to take him seriously, the fact of the matter is that many candidates McConnell has endorsed and even helping with his Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) are also endorsed by Trump, and those few that might not fall into that category, such as Senator Murkowski in Alaska, are already well known to the MAGA voters.

  And do the MAGA voters matter? Popular report has it that the MAGA rallies are ill-attended these days. It may be that the former President is coasting on past glories these days, despite the number of endorsed extremists of which he can boast.

  In the end, I suspect Trump’s temper tantrum, best interpreted as the wailing of someone who thinks they have fabulous political insight, but doesn’t, is little more than inadvertent entertainment for everyone who is not a Republican.

• A rated Fox News Poll reports Senator Kelly (D) leading Blake Masters 46% – 40% in Arizona. Their August poll gave Kelly an 8 point lead, but both lost ground in this poll. There is a ±3 point margin of error.
• Fox News Poll also reports that Senator Johnson (R) is now leading Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) 48% – 44% in Wisconsin. Given the conspiracy rumors in which Johnson indulges, it’s a real disappointment.
• A poll from Franklin & Marshall College Poll, B/C rated by FiveThirtyEight, gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 45% to 42% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R) in Pennsylvania. This seems abnormally small, especially in view of Marist Poll just giving Fetterman a ten point lead. No margin of error is given.
• Candidate Don Bolduc (R) of New Hampshire is a flip-flopper. First, he thought there was electoral fraud in 2020. Then, soon as he became the GOP nominee for the New Hampshire Senate seat, he said research showed that’s not true, that the election had no systemic fraud. Now? Back on the election denial wagon, apparently. Frankly, he seems a bit frenzied to sit in the Senate. It was intended for sober legislators, not this guy.
• Challenger Madison Horn (D) remarks on former President Trump’s endorsement of candidate James Lankford (R) for reelection in Oklahoma.
• GOP-leaning pollster Trafalgar’s latest poll in Colorado suggests Senator Bennet’s (D) lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R) is shrinking, 48.6% to 42.6%. If accurate, then O’Dea no longer has the mountain of changing people’s minds to climb, just the mountain of undecided independent voters to climb.
• Senator Schumer (D) of New York has a 55% – 36% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) according to A rated Siena College. Two months ago Schumer held a 22 point lead, according to Emerson College, but if this decay in Schumer’s lead continues, the rate of change is not enough for Pinion to pull the upset.
• Unknown to FiveThirtyEight, but reportedly conservative, pollster Civitas has North Carolina as a statistical tie, with Cheri Beasley (D), the former State Supreme Court Justice, leading Rep Ted Budd (R) 44.0% – 43.7%.

The last time I did this is here.