Some runners are beginning to stagger. Don’t let them touch you! In other news…
- As Senator Mark Kelly’s (D) lead in most polls of Arizona has dwindled, some wonder if the Republicans will be swallowing him up. azcentral’s article on the subject points out Democratic strategist Andy Barr’s observation: “A blowout win for Democrats in Arizona is winning by like 3 points,” he said. “There are more Republicans than there are Democrats, period. And there are very few people who switch allegiances based on who the candidates are.” An example of toxic team politics at work. Better to vote for your own highly flawed candidate, such as Masters, than for the evil opponent. That attitude, a result of the win at all costs! of former Speaker Gingrich (R-AL), is an example of the American empire tearing itself to pieces, if we pay attention to Turchin’s scholarship. And in other news, Insider Advantage gives Senator Kelly (D) a 45% – 43% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R).
- Data For Progress, B rated, gives a 51% to 44% lead to Florida Senator Rubio (R) over challenger Rep Val Demings (D).
- In New York challenger Joe Pinion (R) is making little progress against Senator Schumer (D), Emerson College Polling reports: In the election for US Senate, 51% plan to support incumbent Chuck Schumer, while 36% support Joe Pinion. Eight percent are undecided. With their support allocated, Schumer’s support increases to 53% and Pinion to 40%. Since September, Senator Schumer has lost three percentage points and Joe Pinion has gained five percentage points. Pinion has little more than a week to make up a serious amount of ground.
- GOP aligned Insider Advantage believes Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) has a 47.5% to 44.8% lead over Lt. Gov John Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania. Insider Advantage is B rated. This is probably the first lead for the snake oil salesman.
- C/D rated Triton Polling & Research gives Washington Senator Murray (D) a 50.6% to 45.4% lead over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R). This might need the extra large salt shaker, although the numbers are not entirely out of line with other pollsters. Meanwhile, conservative pollster Trafalgar has a much closer race at 49.4% to 48.2% for Murray. In some ways, that’s even further out of line than Triton’s.
- A Daily Kos diarist delivers the argument that the attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of the Speaker of the House, will be to the Democrats’ advantage this cycle. Erick Erickson disagrees, although I think most of his arguments are specious or stripped off context. Me? I don’t think it’ll have an effect. Most folks will figure the attacker is an extremist and maybe out of his head, much like the guy who tried to shoot a bunch of Republican legislators at a Congressional baseball game a few years back. And we’ll probably never know for sure.
- Yet another Insider Advantage poll, this time in Georgia, suggests Herschel Walker (R) ahead of Senator Warnock, 48% to 45%, with a margin of error of ± 4.2 points. Chase Oliver (L) has 2% of the vote.
- Trafalgar gives Adam Laxalt (R) a 49.8% to 45.6% lead over Senator Cortez (D) in Nevada.
Getting near the end here. Oh I so hope. The last edition, grievously out of date, is here.
