The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates

Perhaps the news is slowing. Perhaps I’m squinting.

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  Once again, it’s Scylla and Charybdis, last used here!

  Erick Erickson, in the face of fourth-rate – or worse! – Republican candidates, remains confident of success in a couple of weeks. Why? In an email that doesn’t appear to be on his blog: Oregon Democrats are panicking as Nancy Pelosi’s campaign team has pulled money from historically blue house seats because the Republicans are so far ahead. If true, that has to be of concern for those voters who find the candidates behind which Erickson stands to be of an enormously substandard variety. But of more interest from him is this post, which can be read, with only a few changes, as a condemnation of both parties for their absolutist elements. For the Democrats, their transgenderism stance, seemingly unconscious of the societal directive that parents guide and raise children, and not succumb to their every demand, is just one of his criticisms; while, Erickson completely unconscious of it, the absolutism of anti-abortion stands forth as a crippling intellectual failure for the Republicans. In a sense, these two positions are Scylla and Charybdis, a metaphor I’ve used before, the terrifying sea monsters between which mariners must sail, and independent voters are heading for that deadly whirlpool wherein they can pick a Republican Party that abandoned the principles of liberal democracy a decade or more ago, or a Democratic Party that has become increasingly arrogant and certain of itself, and flouted liberal democracy itself when it promoted transgenderism as the law of the land sans discussion. But if Erickson is right, then there’s the question of even those he might assume are his allies are instead abandoning him; see the next two news items.

• The Tulsa World, which one would assume is reflective of its city and state of Oklahoma, and is thus traditionally a conservative rag, has issued an endorsement for the special election to fill Senator Inhofe’s (R) seat after his planned January ’23 resignation. The endorsement is not for Republican candidate Rep Markwayne Mullin, but, surprisingly, the Democratic candidate, former Rep Kendra Horn. Will this move the needle in Oklahoma? Probably not. But it remains a noteworthy move, remarkable in that it may alienate a number of subscribers. Notable: Her congressional stint gives Oklahomans a glimpse of what Oklahoma lawmakers of the past looked like. They were pragmatic legislators who looked after their state and found ways to get things done rather than cater to the fringes of their own parties. Mullin’s frantic attempts to get the former President’s attention and endorsement were, in the end, embarrassing, and indicative of a candidate willing to owe his political career to an ineffective, possibly even worse than that, President, rather than make his own reputation and way.
• There may be no polls for the Kentucky race between Senator Paul (R) and challenger Charles Booker (D), but we do now have an endorsement. The Lexington Herald-Leader has endorsed the Democrat, Booker, rather than the incumbent, a move virtually unheard of for respectably sized newspapers, and the Herald-Leader is the second largest (well, back in 1999) in Kentucky. Here’s the link, but it’s behind a paywall, so I didn’t give it a read. Regardless, disgust with Senator Paul’s (R) behavior is apparently spreading. Not that I expect an upset in Kentucky, but it’s a nice thought – I don’t much care for Paul’s behaviors, either.
• Unsurprisingly, challenger Natalie James (D) is not getting any attraction traction against Senator Boozman (R). The Arkansas Senator has a 52% – 32% lead over James, according to Talk Business & Politics, a pollster unknown to FiveThirtyEight. Last month the lead, measured by the same pollster, was just more than 13 points, and Boozman only had a 43.5% share of the survey answers. He’s now over the 50% mark, giving James a real challenge. For the record, in 2016 Boozman won by 23 points, so he’s not been notably damaged by the general fourth rate nature of the Republicans this cycle.
• Florida Atlantic University, an A/B pollster, gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 47.7% to 42% lead over challenger Rep Demings (D). While it may remain encouraging that Rubio is failing to find his way over the 50% mark, Demings remains in a challenging position herself, despite her superior credentials. The margin of error is ± 3.65 points.
• GOP-linked Insider Advantage, B rated, gives Nevada challenger Adam Laxalt (R) a 48.2% to 46.3% lead over Senator Cortez Masto (D).
• Insider Advantage also rates the Pennsylvania race as “neck and neck” at 46% apiece to Fetterman and Oz.
• Remember my report of a news item about Ukrainians alienated by Republican anti-Ukrainian statements? This may impact the Ohio races, according to WaPo, as they confirm the earlier report. Pissing off Ukrainians, whether over there or over here, would seem to be a very bad practice.
• A Seattle Times survey has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R), 49% – 41%. Murray is not over the 50% hurdle, which should be concerning for her, but Smiley continues to carry the burden of a Washington Republican Party loaded with extremists.

The previous edition, scorned by many, is here.