The fickle dodgeball of fate begins here. It’s bouncing down a yellowed brick road. The defiled metaphors could continue, so feel grateful that the dinner bell is ringing. Now for the news:
- The next televised January 6th Insurrection panel will reportedly be September 28th, but check your local listings. Why is this important? The former President has flailed ever since the first of these televised hearings (now up to eight) revealed his temper tantrums and possible intentions, and, since then, he’s had backlash for more of his headstrong and narcissistic behaviors inflicted on him, from the numerous convictions and confessions for the January 6th riot at the Capitol, the FBI search for and discovery of confidential documents at Mar-a-Lago, a stop at the hearings over said documents that are going badly for Trump despite getting the Federal judge he wanted, to the very recent civil suit by New York AG James for $250 million and added non-financial penalties. The more the independents see of his shallow, mob-boss mentality, his incompetence, his arrogance, and his disrespect for the law, the more likely they’ll overlook Democratic flaws, and less likely they’ll vote for any candidate closely allied to Trump. Remember, independents hold the balance of power in most States. Republican candidates know this and have already been documented scrubbing their web-sites clean of mentions of Trump endorsements, embracements of Trump and his positions, etc. Can those candidates make it work? That depends on the campaign staff of their Democratic opponents gathering evidence and packaging it up for communications to voters.
- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, unrated by FiveThirtyEight, has released results suggesting challenger Herschel Walker (R) leads incumbent Senator Warnock (D) 46% – 44% in Georgia. Erick Erickson celebrates – 7 weeks early. A day or so after Erickson hopped up and down with happiness, Marist Poll, A rated by FiveThirtyEight, gives Senator Warnock (D) a 47% – 42% lead over challenger Walker (R). Epistemic bubbles, regardless of ideology, are burst in Novembers. My epistemic bubble is talking to people who agree Americans are rational and would never put gibberish-emitting Walker into office. I had the same talk about now-Senator Tuberville (R-AL). I hope my personal bubble pop doesn’t burst my eardrums.
- Emerson College Polling gives Rep Ted Budd (R) a 46% – 43% lead over Cheri Beasley (D) in the race for the soon to be empty North Carolina Senate seat, and notes that Budd has lost two points while Beasley has gained two points since their last poll of this race. I’m not impressed, but this is notable: Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Budd leads among men by 16 points while Beasley leads among women by nine points. Notably, 81% of the undecided voters are women whose most important voting issue is abortion access (28%).” Can Beasley find seven points among the undecideds?
- GOP-linked Trafalgar gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 48% – 46% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, much in line with other Trafalgar polls: much tighter than other pollsters.
- A rated SurveyUSA gives Eric Schmidt (R) a 47% – 36% over Trudy Busch Valentine (D) in the race for Missouri’s soon to be empty Senate seat. This is no improvement on the last poll of this race, and must be deflating for Valentine.
- Another rumble of internal maneuvering in the GOP? WaPo reports the previously noted Senator McConnell (R-KY) super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, has cut all remaining ad buys, valued at $10 million, in Arizona, leaving inexperienced challenger Blake Masters (R) dependent on what he can raise and the erratic favors of his patrons, the former President Trump and venture capitalist Peter Thiel, in his race against incumbent Senator Kelly (D). Masters losing would be a blow to the political prestige of Trump, as it’d indicate he cannot elevate extremists to elective positions through his magic touch. This may be McConnell trying to shiv the former President, already under immense legal pressure, by either draining him of financial resources or of his political base, and the latter may unexpectedly shatter if the civil litigation by the New York AG reveals Trump to be nowhere near the rich guy he’s claimed to be. Yeah, I know, Erickson just today said Trump has $99 million in the bank, but why does he believe anything that comes from a Trump-related source? Hasn’t he gotten Trump figured out yet? Meanwhile, Impact Research (aka ALG Research) in collaboration with FabrizioWard, both rated rated B/C, give Kelly (D) a 50% – 42% lead. Making for a plethora of polls, OH Predictive Insights, rated B/C by FiveThirtyEight, gives Kelly an even larger lead of 47% – 35%. Arizona polls have shown Kelly with various leads, but this last one sounds like an outlier, doesn’t it? Especially with a non-top tier rating.
- An AARP Alaska poll suggests it’s a dead heat between the two remaining Republicans for the Alaska Senate seat in this three way RCV competition. What’s the quality of this pollster? Beats me.
- Marist Poll, A rated, suggests that in Ohio Rep Tim Ryan (D) and J. D. Vance (R) are in a dead heat.
- A rated Siena College suggests Lt. Governor Barnes (D) has a 48% – 47% lead over incumbent Senator Johnson (R). Call it a dead heat. Ugh, don’t, don’t encourage climate change, eh? Noteworthy side results: Overwhelming Support for Universal Background Checks for Guns; Majority Support for Banning Assault Weapons; Opposition to Arming Teachers; Strong Opposition to SCOTUS’ Dobbs Decision Overturning Roe v Wade[.] Note that all of those make Senator Johnson gnash his teeth. And then change his published positions, I suspect.
- Steve Benen suggests Florida’s Senator Rubio (R), embroiled in a close race with Rep Demings (D) in his reelection race, may have just alienated 200,000 Venezuelan immigrants living in Florida. Does every vote count? He may have a hefty four point lead, according to Suffolk University, of 45% – 41%, and Suffolk has a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, suggesting it knows its business. Still, a margin of error of ±4.4 points does bring on a myriad of questions, at least for me.
- If you haven’t read this post on the potential impact of Putin’s hypothesized fall from power, get to it.
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