The last post covered evolution in all its gory glory. This one?
MediaIte has an article on an apparently fake poll, showing candidate Mehmet Oz (R) closing in on candidate John Fetterman (D) in the Pennsylvania Senate race for an open seat, taking in far-right site Breitbart. Just about every poll has shown Fetterman with a substantial lead, so what the hell? The lesson here is Beware confirmation bias. You want to see Oz leading, that poll shows up, cue the drooling. But it’s a bad look. Outliers should always be viewed with suspicion. And I do not take Breitbart and a few other far-right sites seriously.- Candidate for Nevada’s Senate seat Adam Laxalt (R) appears to have run into a money problem:
In audio obtained by The Daily Beast from a July luncheon with the Southern Hills Republican Women, Laxalt, amid the sounds of clinking cutlery, said, “The Democrats have unlimited money, they have unlimited money. You think we have it bad here? Masto has, she just did $10 million she has to spend, we have $2 million. She’s on TV now because she has money and we don’t.” [The Daily Beast]
Note the date being sometime in July, so this may be out of date. And it’s not just Nevada, according to the ever-helpful Laxalt:
“In Georgia, it’s $20 million to $3 million. In Ohio, it’s $12 million to $1 million,” Laxalt told the attendees, who paid between $36 and $41 to hear candidates speak at Dragon Ridge Country Club in Henderson, Nevada, according to an Eventbrite for the event.
Money doesn’t buy votes, but it does buy access to the minds of voters who will watch political ads, so a lack of money may result in voters not going to the polls, as they’ll not feel like they know Laxalt – and in today’s world of millions of people, it’s very true, as attending events where candidates show up can be difficult. Money also functions as an ad hoc measure of support from voters, prior to the vote, depending on the number of small dollar donations from distinct donors. One of the far-right extremist billionaires could give Laxalt $10 million and thus solve his money problem – but that would just be money, not hundreds of thousands of voters who approve of Laxalt, only one or two. If what he claims is true, this may indicate one, or both, of two conclusions is also true: potential conservative small donors don’t care for the Senate candidates, or potential small donors are bled out, probably from the grifters infesting the right-wing power structure, beginning with Trump and going right down the pyramid, and thus cannot financially support Laxalt, et al.
- Trafalgar’s polls suggests Peter Welch (D) has a 7.7 point lead over Gerald Malloy (R) in the race for Vermont’s open Senate seat, currently held by the retiring Senator Patrick Leahy (D), which is considerably less than I expected. For comparison, incumbent Leahy won in 2016 by slightly less than 30 points, and by more than 30 points in 2010. The relatively slim lead is par for the course for Trafalgar this year, however. We’ll discover in November if Trafalgar’s A- rating is still good.
- A Suffolk University poll of Ohio voters for the open Senate seat finds Rep Tim Ryan (D) leading lawyer J. D. Vance (R) 46.6% to 45.6%. No margin of error apparent. Suffolk is a B+ rated pollster.
- Michael Franken’s campaign in Iowa is reporting a campaign-commissioned poll by “B-” rated Change Research gives incumbent Senator Grassley (R) a 48% – 44% lead over Franken, with a margin of error of 3.0 points. B- plus campaign-commissioned makes me dubious concerning this poll. But if we accept it, then it’s worth noting that the last known Iowa poll, by the Des Moines Register, estimated Grassley’s lead at eight points in mid-July, suggesting Franken is tightening the gap. With only eight weeks left, though, is it too much? Or will Grassley’s discouraging antics of the Trump years be his downfall?
- Senator Graham (R-SC), who is not up for reelection in this cycle, will be introducing some legislation that will go nowhere during this Congress soon.
Instead, some antiabortion advocates are hopeful that Republican lawmakers will rally around a 15-week ban that Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) is expected to introduce this fall, a proposal that has long been denounced by many in the antiabortion movement because it would allow the vast majority of abortions to continue. Spokespeople for Graham didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment. [WaPo]
Steve Benen is convinced Republicans are committing sepuku, but I wonder if this is how the Republicans, lacking votes in the current Congress to pass an abortion ban, and seeing incompetent screwups at the State level in attempts to ban abortion, are signaling to Republican voters that, yes, Republican candidates for office are truly dedicated to passing a ban, and hoping this will energize them for the November election.
Of course, this could also energize Democrats and independents who consider themselves pro-choice. But I am not convinced this is the madness that seems apparent to Benen.
- For those Democratic candidates of all stripes hoping to ride a Biden wave, there’s good news from Investor’s Business Daily:
President Joe Biden’s approval rating bounced higher over the past month, helped by lower gas prices and a series of legislative wins, a new IBD/TIPP Poll finds. Younger Americans, in particular, rallied around Biden following approval of the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act and his decision to forgive up to $20,000 in college loans.
Biden’s approval rating jumped 6.6 points to 49, the highest since April. The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval measure indicates that 49% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden’s job performance and 51% disapprove, in a measure that excludes those who were unsure or declined to state an opinion.
If this trend continues, Democrats on the bubble may win their races. Messaging, as always, remains key: abortion rights, January 6th insurrection, election denialism, and that their opponents are, for the most part, incompetent extremists with a variety of bizarre beliefs, against the supposed Republican advantage of a poor economy and Biden’s incompetency. Neither Republican subject has the benefit of being profoundly true; rather, Biden’s made a few mistakes, as do all Presidents, but even the critics are hard-pressed to make the Afghanistan withdrawal into a disaster of Biden’s making, but rather Trump’s, who signed the binding paperwork, and in any case the tragic loss of thirteen servicepeople was not the worst possible outcome. A lot of these critics, such as Max Boot, try hard enough to make it into a disaster that it makes their eyes bulge, but their arguments are unconvincing. And recession? Not with an unemployment rate of less than 4%.
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Tucker Carlson
Speaking of Biden, the Daily Kos analysts of Putin’s War are beginning to claim that Russia’s chances of winning are rapidly approaching zero. If Putin’s War terminates prior to November, or if Russia loses control of Crimea to Ukraine before November, that accrues to Biden’s account as a piece of masterful diplomacy and military supply; meanwhile, it’s quite possible that many conservatives who watch and/or read Fox’s Tucker Carlson and other such pro-Russian American conservative commentators may realize that they’ve been played for suckers, and decide to sit out the election simply out of rage, thus giving Democrats another edge in voting. Carlson, et al, will of course continue to be paid. How many multimillion dollar homes does Carlson own these days? Last I heard it was three or four. All on the backs of credulous conservatives.
- The final Senate primary has been completed, and it appears that in New Hampshire incumbent Senator Hassan (D), who won her primary with 93.4% of the vote, will be facing Don Bolduc (R), a retired Army brigadier general who won his primary with 38.1% of the Republican vote. Incidentally, and perhaps reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent, there were more votes for Bolduc than for Hassan, although in a hypothetical jungle primary he would not have won outright. The GOP establishment is reported to be dismayed, as Bolduc is an election denier and is ready to at least muse at repealing the 17th Constitutional Amendment, and abolishing the FBI. The last poll showed a tight race. But Bolduc’s relatively low take of the primary vote may reflect a bitter intraparty fight that won’t heal in the little time left before the general election.
The previous Senate update is here, cowering in terror of my wretched word-play.
