On Lawfare, Chibli Mallat presents an analysis of the leadership situation in Saudi Arabia which is a bit unsettling:
There have been hints of open dissent within the family, and the stakes are existential for [Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS)]. Last November, some of the most prominent members of Saudi high society were confined to house arrest at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, including 11 members of the royal family and the most prominent businessmen in the kingdom. Although billed as an anti-corruption crackdown, it certainly looked like the crown prince consolidating his power. Reuters reported at the time that MBS ordered the arrests “when he realized more relatives opposed him becoming king than he had thought.” Eleven other members of the royal family were arrested on Jan. 4.
The young prince is, by all accounts, determined to take over as quickly as possible. His father is 82 and suffers from a mild form of Alzheimer’s. King Salman could change his mind if his unhappy brothers and nephews get his ear. The opposition at large has grown also because of the setbacks of Saudi foreign policy, mostly ascribed to MBS’s impetuous character, in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. His commitment to the glitzy and increasingly elusive 2030 Vision plan has also drawn concern. There was far less money to go around in 2017 and far greater entitlement expected by the ruling family’s proliferating membership, dissenters of all kinds and the population at large. And there is the Arab Spring—the real, nonviolent one on the streets and in social media, which first emerged in preparations for a “Day of Rage” on March 11, 2011, that authorities prevented from being held.
As Saudi Arabia is our most important Arab ally, any sort of upset during a power transfer has to be of concern and is worth watching. And if MBS makes it a violent act, do we wish to remain allied with Saudi Arabia? The move from fossil fuel dependence to renewables would make this question much easier to answer. The current Administration is thus making that more difficult.
