Unsightly Mental Blemishes

For those readers confused by claims, often emanating from Gen Z, of identity with a group with which they are either evidently, or admittedly, not, here’s Katherine Dee on Default Wisdom:

… as acceptance of minority sexual orientations and gender identity have grown, these categories have become much more nebulous. Rather than being guided by physical experience, one’s sexuality and gender identity are now determined by something much harder to define: feelings. The YouTuber Contrapoints may have put it best in a now-deleted tweet: “Gen Z people are hard to figure out. They’re like, ‘I’m an asexual slut that loves sex! You don’t have to be trans to be trans. Casual reminder that your heterosexuality doesn’t make your gayness any less valid!”

But to our hypothetical Gen Z member, though, I’d have to reply, Sorry, dearie, but you’re not thinking clearly.

Here’s the situation: there’s an assumption that some bundle of feelings or vibes is inseparable from the group to which it’s associated, be it gays, lesbians, or the asexual.

But this assumption has some hidden troubles. Feelings and vibes are not spontaneously existing things that are independent and unaffected by the surrounding societal context. Consider a comparison of two pairs of men. Each pair is bonded. One pair is living in 1950 in New York City, and, for simplicity, the location of the other pair is also New York City, but in 2020.

The former pair, on average, daren’t reveal their quasi-married status and devotion to each other, except to a few close friends, due to strong societal disapproval, such as losing their jobs or even their lives. The gentlemen of 2020, on the other hand, may have had 200 guests at their wedding, and, if they lose their jobs because they’re gay, they have a solid legal basis for compensation.

These highly differences, in key ways, of society’s reaction will undoubtedly strongly influence the feelings of these men of self, towards their partners, and towards society.

To suggest that feelings/vibes and group identity are inseparable is a difficult, even impossible, proposition to defend in view of the fact they change so easily.

Take it another step: are the feelings and vibes originating from belonging to one group broadly unique? Why would they be? Is it possible that, in the years from the above example, a lesbian pair would feel quite similar?

I think so. The pair of a status and a society, and its mapping to a vibe or feeling portfolio, can hardly be considered to generate a unique such portfolio. Just as dread can occur when faced with a wild tiger or the loss of a job, so can the feelings of being part of some group.

So when I suggest our Gen Z member isn’t thinking clearly, I’m specifically referencing the logical error Affirming the Consequent, in which a system supporting the assertion if (a) then (b), and then b is observed (to be true), and thus a fallacious conclusion of (a) is drawn. That is, just because you feel like you’re gay, asexual, or whatever, you’re not unless you substantially follow the physical practices of said group.

I shan’t speculate on the motivations between such poor reasoning, as none of the conclusions are pleasant; I’ll just suggest that a class in rhetoric may be in order.

Paul Newman and Meryl Streep star in ….

Bulldog Drummond’s Bride (1939), part of the canon of Bulldog Drummond, is a rather dreadful effort that depends on the charm of the lead playing Drummond, John Howard, to carry the load. Howard gives it the old college try, but between American accents ascribed to British citizens, French police rather than gendarmes, and a silly plot centering around a bank robbery and a would-be bride, eager for the role, chasing after an ADHD Drummond, this short movie was difficult to take seriously.

Fortunately, I doubt it was ever anything more than a filler.

Reading Andrew Sullivan’s condemnation of the far-left and far-right for going anti-Semitic, following the incendiary invasion of Israel, with its attendant mass murder and kidnapping of civilians, by Hamas, then in control of Gaza, left me gloomy. Don’t get me wrong: Hamas’ actions, whether taken in a supposed defense of Gaza or, as mooted about in AL-Monitor and other publications, an attempt to break up an imminent rapprochement between Israel and its adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia, certainly constitutes a pure, distilled evil.

But for years, even decades, the activities of Israeli settlers, slowly pushing Muslims out of their long-held homes, has been unsettling as well. Indeed, the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, a leading figure in the Oslo Accords, thought to be leading to a two-state solution, by a far-right Jewish Israeli, might be considered a signal clue as to the arrogance and, yes, evil that may exist is Israel.

For those readers who may be thinking that I hardly know what I speak of, you’re quite right. The events of the Middle East since the establishment of Israel following World War II by, or at least with the backing of the Allies, as led by David Ben-Gurion, have been curious, even to those conversant with the various religions active in the area; for an agnostic with only a passing interest, the claims, the maneuvering, the actions can all be downright puzzling.

But tonight it occurs to me to take a step back while thinking about the motivations of both sides. The extremists on each have amply demonstrated their extremists’ belief in a Divinity, some sort of force that represents good.

And we know that thinking you are part of a tradition of a Divinity can often lead those in that tradition to think their actions, grim as they may be, are sanctified. Certainly, the more mature individuals will recognize the fallacy; but many do not. They believe in God, they believe the rules only apply to their interactions with others in the tradition, and outside of that tradition?

Much anything goes.

And so we see one of the dangers of believing in a divinity: an illusion of the sanctification of some of the worst, most disgusting actions of human kind. All because of a belief that the Divine favors the perpetrator.

It’s something I’ll be keeping in mind in the future. And it helps explain my gloominess at understanding this situation.

Ramada:

(US) A simple arbour or open porch, typically roofed with branches. [from 19th c.] [Wiktionary]

Funny, all these years and never have I run across ramada, excepting all those Ramada Inns, anywhere until now. I had assumed that Ramada Inn was named after their founder, whoever that might be. I noted it in “Archaeologists discover remarkable ancient O’Odham village and va’aki beneath Tempe,” Tamara Jager Stewart, american archaeology (Spring 2024), but the link is to a partial article that does not contain the usage; I suppose you’ll have to give money to the Archaeological Conservancy, as I do, and then ask them to send the Spring 2024 issue, if this concerns you. Here’s a very partial quote, all typos mine:

A giant steel ramada was built over the great house in 1932 — a New Deal project — to protect it from the elements, replacing an earlier 1903 wooden protective structure.

As a mark of ramada’s rarity in literary usage, the spell check in use by WordPress has marked ramada as a misspelling.

Looking at Mr Trump’s Truth Social company, known by its stock symbol of DJT, kos of Daily Kos reads DJT’s 8-K, and if I were an investor, this would concern me:

• Conservative former Congressman Devin Nunes is paid $750,000 as CEO, despite having zero experience running a tech or media company, and that will go up to $1 million next year. Prior to serving in Congress, he was a farmer. Now, I’m sure you’re thinking, “Gosh, that’s not a lot of money, and there’s no one more qualified at licking Trump’s boots than Nunes. What if he bolts?” Oh ye of little faith, you underestimate Trump’s grifting negotiating prowess! Nunes is also getting a $600,000 “retention bonus”! Keep that number in mind.
• The company’s chief financial officer Phillip Juhan and chief operating officer Andrew Northwall are getting $337,500 and $365,000, respectively. And you’ll be happy to learn that both of them are also getting $600,000 retention bonuses.

This is looking as this tree in my backyard.

And it doesn’t stop there. For a company showing a loss that’s huge relative to revenue, doesn’t appear to have a reasonable business model, has inexperienced personnel, some arguably incompetent, at key positions, and is not revealing key metrics, these are bright red flags, fluttering in the breeze.

And this is a company that, so far, is dependent on the charisma and reputation of a guy coming up fast on the end of his lifetime. They say they are trying to develop products beyond Mr. Trump, but given the lack of star quality leadership in technology, I have my doubts.

The red flags are thundering in the windstorm, in my opinion.

H.R.7845, a House bill whose sponsor, Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA), is today’s nominee, has the title:

To designate the Washington Dulles International Airport in Virginia as the “Donald J. Trump International Airport”.

Rep. Reschenthaler is either, or even both:

1. A truly devoted fan of Mr Trump, beyond all bounds of reason or taste;
2. An aesthete of enormous talent and sensibility. As his colleague, Rep Brandon Boyle (D-PA), noted, Dulles is an old, ugly airport that no one wants to see. So I think this is a fitting tribute to 45. But Rep Boyle failed to note how this fits into the panoply of Mr. Trump’s associations, as “old airports” are, unless properly updated, fourth class. Mr Trump never finds the first class associate, does he? It’s not in his personality, narcissistic and desiring adoration, for first rate people expend adoration upon their pets, who generally cannot abuse it, and not on people. Those they treat as appropriate: dignity, caution, loathing are some of the applicable adjectives. Their association with adoring people is uneasy, suspicious, and withdrawn.

My congratulations to Rep. Reschenthaler on his achievement.

Correction: The stock symbol of Trump Media & Technology Group is actually DJT. My previous post was wrong.

But I like it.

Craton:

A craton is a large, coherent domain of Earth’s continental crust that has attained and maintained long-term stability, having undergone little internal deformation, except perhaps near its margins due to interaction with neighbouring terranes. Stable continental crust is an end product of intense magmatic, tectonic, and metamorphic reworking; hence, cratons consist of polydeformed and metamorphosed crystalline and metamorphic rocks (e.g., typically “granite-greenstone terrains” in the most ancient cratons). [astrophysics data system]

Noted in “Why supersonic, diamond-spewing volcanoes might be coming back to life,” Robin George Andrews, NewScientist (23 March 2024, paywall):

There was just one problem. Almost all kimberlites are found within cratons, the colossal, 200-kilometre-thick cores of continents, which don’t experience [the rifts caused by continental breakups]. Cratons are several billion years old. Even when supercontinents are broken, these cores remain intact. That meant kimberlite magmas picked the thickest, toughest parts of the continents to puncture through – the path of most resistance – something most eruptive activity tends to avoid.

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone (2001), the first of the Harry Potter series, is a special effects tour de force for its era, and functions as a morality and inspirational tale, teaching that those who are pure of heart, and never give up, can accomplish wonderful things. How well it stacks up against the novels of the same name is not within my ken, seeing as I’ve never read the novels. I’ve read too much fantasy as it is.

If you’ve somehow never seen it, it’s worth a gander. Unless you’re goth and, thus, hopelessly cynical.

Keeping the herd together by the use of moral condemnation, Erick Erickson, back on Thursday, has a solemn pronouncement:

While most media headlines today are about Sam Bankman-Fried’s sentencing, Ronna McDaniel’s next move, or the fallout from the bridge collapse in Baltimore, today will be one of the most consequential days in the 2024 presidential election. Joe Biden is screwing up Manhattan traffic with a fundraiser featuring Barack Obama and Bill Clinton that should clear his campaign upwards of $25 million.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump will be attending the wake of 31-year-old NYPD officer Jonathan Diller on Long Island. Diller was murdered by a career criminal with 21 prior arrests who viciously gunned him down during a routine traffic stop. Diller leaves behind a wife and one-year-old child named Ryan.

The campaign split screen happening in New York is emblematic of how voters increasingly view this race. Joe Biden fundraises with millionaires and billionaires in Manhattan while refusing to say the names of the 13 fallen Marines in Kabul or Laken Riley in Athens who died as a result of his policies. As Trump sits at an NYPD funeral at the request of the family, Joe Biden is attempting to push through a radical judicial nominee who serves on the board of an anti-police nonprofit organization.

Erickson’s got a small problem. Solemn Pronouncements don’t work if your “facts” aren’t. For example, at the State of the Union, he said the name Laken Riley. Anyone who tries to verify Erickson’s statement will discover it to be false.

Similarly, Biden attended the return of the Marines lost to our enemies in Afghanistan during the evacuation:

On Aug. 29, President Joe Biden paid his respects to U.S. service members who were killed in a terrorist attack at the Kabul airport. The president and first lady Jill Biden bowed and placed their hands over their hearts as 11 caskets were presented at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. …

The full video of the dignified transfer ceremony shows Biden honored each of the fallen U.S. service members. [USA Today]

He was there, he honored those who fell because of the former President’s decision to sign a legally binding treaty requiring the United States to leave. Through this act, he honored those fallen heroes.

And, finally, it only takes a little thought to realize that blaming Biden for a bloodthirsty criminal’s actions is intellectually dishonest. If Trump had the opportunity to jail this killer, why didn’t he? Should we blame the lack of the wall when those parts of the wall that have been built by Trump turned out to be a waste? Would he be to blame for a bad wall?

The fact is that, in what some call “this fallen world,” terrible things happen, and sometimes policy is ineffective, whether it’s Democratic policy regarding immigrants or Republican policies regarding gun control. Thoughts and prayers simply do not work. And, yet, each side is willing to take some losses while pursuing their favored policies.

So what of Erickson’s claim about the money raised by the three Presidents? The Radio City Music Hall event was exceedingly popular:

Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and some big names from the entertainment world teamed up Thursday night to deliver a rousing New York embrace of President Joe Biden that hauled in a record-setting $26 million-plus for his reelection campaign.

The mood at Radio City Music Hall was electric as Obama praised Biden’s willingness to look for common ground and said, “That’s the kind of president I want.” Clinton said simply of the choices facing voters in 2024: “Stay with what works.” [AP]

Erickson may be right: $26 million is not peanuts. That Biden didn’t cancel a long planned event is no surprise; if the Diller family had invited President Biden to the funeral, he probably have tried to attend.

But trying to turn this into a question of morality is ruined by Erickson’s own lack of a connection reverence for truth. The truly sad part is that Erickson has expressed dismay concerning Trump and his allies from time to time, so why can’t he be consistent in this dismay and become a NeverTrumper?

Because of Erickson’s addiction to his sides control of power.

Daily Kos‘ NebraskaDemocrat has a soothing claim:

Another symptom of Trump fatigue is that [Trump’s VP] Mike Pence has declined to endorse his candidacy. In addition, 41 out of 44 Trump cabinet members have declined to endorse him. These are the people who know Trump best. This gives millions of Republicans a permission slip to not vote for Trump in November.

[My bold.] Unfortunately, no source for this claim is given. Still, that even one has outright spoken out against Mr. Trump and his winning reelection – former Chief of Staff John Kelly, for instance – is unprecedented in my lifetime. And I don’t know if all of the Republicans understand this, but the sad tragedy in Baltimore this week, of the container ship Dali knocking down the Francis Scott Key Bridge and killing six construction workers, is doubly a disaster for the Republicans. A big ship loses power, hits the Key Bridge, knocks it over and kills some construction workers, and – worst for Republicans – knocks an important Port offline.

None of this is the fault of Democratic President Biden nor his allies, inside or outside of Congress.

But it is Biden’s responsibility to keep the Nation running as smoothly as possible, and this is a situation where Biden has an opportunity to shine. If my reader remembers Hurricane Katrina of 2005, the bungled response of the Republican Bush 43 Administration was another blot on an Administration that was not only discredited for incompetency and political favoritism, but was replaced by the Democratic Obama Administration, and in the same election Democrats completed their takeover of Congress, begun in 2006.

Biden is reportedly smarter than Bush in this respect, having hired competent administrators for posts such as Secretary of Transportation. The Biden Administration, having experience in untangling supply chains by motivating Ports to move faster after the Covid pandemic, and as Professor Richardson notes,

Perhaps learning from the 2023 East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment, when the government response was fast but quiet and thus opened a window for right-wing complaints they weren’t doing enough, the administration was out front today. Buttigieg rushed to the scene from a trip out West, and Maryland governor Wes Moore told reporters Buttigieg had called him at 3:30 am, just two hours after the crash.

By around 6:00 am, the National Transportation Safety Board already had a team of 24 people on the scene to launch an investigation into the cause of the collision.

Speaking today, President Joe Biden said: “I’ve directed my team to move heaven and earth to reopen the port and rebuild the bridge as soon as…humanly possible. And we’re going to work hand in hand…to support Maryland, whatever they ask for. And we’re going to work with our partners in Congress to make sure the state gets the support it needs. It’s my intention that federal government will pay for the entire cost of reconstructing that bridge, and I expect…the Congress to support my effort.”

And Republicans have tried to turn this disaster to their advantage, blaming it on … governors who prioritize diversity, a particularly juvenile and crass statement of … DEI did this, referencing a left-wing initiative commonly called diversity, equity, and inclusiveness, and the heretofore invisible Senator Schmitt (R-MO), who I had to look up:

Republican Senator Eric Schmitt addresses misinformation on the bridge collapse: the problem here this is the consequence, this distrust of terrible leadership when you have an administration that has weaponized the department of justice. pic.twitter.com/9gh4v85z4M

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 26, 2024

Republican Senator Eric Schmitt addresses misinformation on the bridge collapse: the problem here this is the consequence, this distrust of terrible leadership when you have an administration that has weaponized the department of justice.

For those who are solid members of the MAGA base, this is all followed by a head nod. The rest of us? At both best and worst, they’ll be muttering Where’s your evidence? while the rest of us just shake our heads at the repetitious incompetence and clumsy attempts at politicizing a disaster.

And, I must say, Senator Schmitt appears to be particularly clumsy and ill-suited for the job of being a Senator.

Last word I heard was that the Biden Administration was rushing equipment to the scene to help remove debris in order to get the Port reopened, including large helicopters. Because I’m feeling ungracious at the moment, I predict some Republican official will ask why these helicopters weren’t allocated to the effort:

Competency from the Biden Administration, properly messaged and honestly covered by the media, may be a big nail in the Republican coffin of 2024. Between the Freedom Caucus in the House and a portfolio of weak Senators in the Senate, the Republicans are fielding one of the weakest Republican teams in recent times, possibly even worse than those in the 2006 elections, in which

Democrats defeated 22 Republican incumbents and won eight open Republican-held seats. For the first time since the party’s founding, Republicans won no seats previously held by Democrats and defeated no Democratic incumbents.

While many pundits are still hung up on the Trump base, the age of Biden without considering the age of Trump and his concomitant imbecilic behaviors, I’m looking at trends: Trump’s many legal liabilities, shocking record of brazen mendacity, record of corruption, record of incompetence, questions about his wealth, his record as a grifter, and etc, while Biden’s record since taking office, such as excellent messaging, superb economic progress, fast and competent response to incidents, response to Putin’s War (Ukraine invasion), the difficult problem of the Middle East, the excellent folks he’s hired; to summarize, how the trends are positive for Biden, while negative for Trump.

All of this makes me ask what most will call the impossible: Will this be Nixon vs McGovern (1972) all over again, with Biden in the Nixon role as the guy who wins with a record of 49 States to McGovern’s 1 State?

Of course not. All those pundits will tell you that we’re all too polarized for that to happen.

Repeat after me: All those pundits …

OK, it won’t happen. Idaho and North Dakota are full of arrogant right-wingers who simply don’t understand the poor quality of most Republican candidates.

But those two States won’t be enough. I’m looking at Biden winning two, perhaps three more States than last time. And the last weeks of the campaign will be peppered by Republican accusations that Biden was in the Dali’s wheelhouse, even at the helm, when the tragic crash occurred.

Because that’s how surreal the far-right has become.

Parker Spiral:

The heliospheric current sheet, or interplanetary current sheet, is a surface separating regions of the heliosphere where the interplanetary magnetic field points toward and away from the Sun. A small electrical current with a current density of about 10⁻¹⁰ A/m² flows within this surface, forming a current sheet confined to this surface. The shape of the current sheet results from the influence of the Sun’s rotating magnetic field on the plasma in the interplanetary medium. The thickness of the current sheet is about 10,000 km (6,200 mi) near the orbit of the Earth. [Wikipedia]

Accompanying the above is this cool depiction:

Noted on Spaceweather.com under the heading Sizzling Sunspot:

Any eruptions this weekend could have a strong effect on Earth. Sunspots located near the sun’s western limb are magnetically connected to our planet via the Parker Spiral. If AR3615 erupts while it is transiting this “danger zone,” energetic protons and electrons may be funneled back toward Earth for a solar radiation storm. Stay tuned!

I’m a little surprised at the naiveté displayed by some financial commentators concerning the market cap of the company associated with stock symbol TMTG on the markets. In case you’re not familiar with Digital World Acquisition and its acquisition of, or merger with, Trump Media & Technology Group, here’s Adam Lashinsky at WaPo:

The next step for Sam Bankman-Fried is an unhappy one for him and his family:

FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried will serve 25 years in prison after being convicted of defrauding his customers, investors, and lenders.

The man who presided over the largest crypto collapse in history received his sentence Thursday in a Manhattan federal court from US Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over Bankman-Fried’s trial last fall.

He faced up to 110 years. Prosecutors argued for a sentence of 40 to 50 years, while Bankman-Fried’s lawyers asked for six and a half years. [yahoo! finance]

What’s to say? Narcissism and consequential arrogance gets its comeuppance.

Along the intellectual path of goat entrails and special elections, ruby red Alabama had a special election yesterday, and its results must have left Republicans a little aghast.

An Alabama Democrat who campaigned aggressively on abortion access won a special election in the state Legislature on Tuesday, sending a message that abortion remains a winning issue for Democrats, even in the deep South.

Marilyn Lands won a state House seat in a rare competitive race to represent a district that includes parts of Huntsville. Lands, a mental health professional, centered her bid on reproductive rights and criticized the state’s near-total abortion ban along with a recent state Supreme Court ruling that temporarily banned in vitro fertilization. [Politico]

Competitive, yes, but …

Lands ran for the seat in 2022 and lost by 7 points to Republican David Cole, who resigned last year after pleading guilty to voter fraud.

Lands’ margin of victory? Almost 25 points. Sure, politics is generally local, and perhaps her opponent, Republican Teddy Powell, was a poor candidate – but a swing of some thirty points or more is not a mistake.

It’s more of a sign. In neon.

It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on Alabama and its local Republican Party, to see if SCOTUS‘ Dobbs decision, and the Alabama State Supreme Court’s threats to IVF, not to mention their clownish pair of Senators, Katie Britt (R-AL) of the State Of The Union Response Speech fame, and Tommy Tuberville, who endangered national security by holding up officer promotions in a temper tantrum over abortion services, suddenly transform Alabama into a purple State. Don’t forget, the last time the Republicans nominated a real clown for Senator, Judge Roy Moore, who was of a theocratic temperament and an alleged, but unproven so far as I know, sexual predator, Alabama voters narrowly rejected the Republican in favor of Doug Jones (D-AL).

In news that sounds like a joke, former Rep George Santos (R-NY), who has the sad distinction of having been expelled from Congress for a number of instances of lying and possible crimes, has said he’s running for re-election, citing perhaps the most ridiculous reason imaginable:

Embattled former Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., said he is suspending his plans to run for reelection as a Republican and will instead run as an independent, blaming the shift on the “embarrassing showing in the House” Friday.

The House on Friday passed a $1.2 trillion spending package that would finally fund the federal government through the end of September, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., filed a motion to vacate against House Speaker Mike Johnson – the procedure that led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

After Friday, “I have reflected and decided that I can no longer be part of the Republican Party… The Republican Party continues to lie and swindle its voter base. I in good conscience cannot affiliate myself with a party that stands for nothing and falls for everything,” Santos said in a post on X.

“I will take my Ultra MAGA/Trump supporting values to the ballot in November as an Independent.” [USA Today]

Those last two paragraphs are just killer for me, because the essence of Santos and MAGA is lying and grifting. It’s the Theater of the Absurd.

But concerning matters for the electorate keep on coming. Erick Erickson, at the beginning of his “ministry’s” Holy Week, in which he prefers not to discuss politics, had this to say yesterday:

I see more and more right-of-center “influencers” trying to use God’s Word as a cudgel against their political opponents.

And here, he offers a video entitled Purging the Republican Grifters. Representatives Gallagher (R-WI) and Buck (R-CO) have not only announced their retirements, but their unexpected and abrupt resignations from Congress (the former on April 19th, the latter already accomplished), and their letters of announcement have indicated deep disgust with the bulk of the Republicans in the House.

Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AL), long a target of right-wing extremist elements in the Alaska Republican Party, yet winner of her seat as a write-in candidate in 2010, which reflects her long-standing popularity and the disconnect between the Alaska Republican Party and Alaska’s electorate, recently expressed her disgust with the national Republican Party, hinting that she may leave the Party for independent status. Leaving the Party in disgust over its allegiance to Mr. Trump, as she puts it, isn’t unprecedented, but Senator Murkowski would certainly be the most prominent member to do so. Will there be more? Former US VP Mike Pence (R-IN) has remarked that he shan’t endorse his former boss, Mr. Trump, but has yet to walk away from the Party. I might have thought Senator McConnell (R-KY) would have done so, but so far he’s not exhibited the independence of thought to do so.

But he, as well as others, may be forcibly ejected from the Party, as Rep Greene (R-GA) has declared the necessity of purifying the Party of dissident elements, with the aforementioned Rep Gallagher (R-WI) perhaps one of her early scores.

Mr. Trump himself is doing poorly in one of the most important aspects of his appeal to voters, his constructed myth of being a successful, dominant businessman. Skipping all the details, Professor Richardson’s pithy summary of how his legal travails are going is the best that I’ve seen:

Trump made his political career on his image as a successful and fabulously wealthy businessman. Today, “Don Poorleone” trended on X (formerly Twitter).

It’s unsurprising that CNN ended up with a headline, which I cannot find at the moment, to the effect that Mr Trump says, oh, yes, he has $500 million available, even as his lawyers argue that he does not and thus should have the size of his bond reduced. It’s clear that wealth is the magic pixie dust for Mr. Trump’s base, at least in his own opinion.

If this all smells of a Republican Party that is falling apart, I agree. But there’s more, and of a nature that may come as a surprise. Professor Richardson mentions it:

This morning The Boeing Company announced that the chief of Boeing’s commercial airplane division, Stan Deal, is leaving immediately. Chief executive officer Dave Calhoun is stepping down at the end of the year. Chair of the board Larry Kellner will not stand for reelection.

On January 5 a door plug blew off a Boeing 737 Max jetliner operated by Alaska Airlines while it was in flight. The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) immediately grounded about 170 similar Boeing planes operated by U.S. airlines or in U.S. territory until they could be inspected. “The FAA’s first priority is keeping the flying public safe,” it said, and added: “The safety of the flying public, not speed, will determine the timeline for returning the Boeing 737-9 MAX to service.”

Last year an FAA investigation “observed a disconnect between Boeing’s senior management and other members of the organization on safety culture,” with employees worrying about retaliation for reporting safety issues. After the door plug blew off, an FAA audit of different aspects of the production process released two weeks ago found that Boeing failed 33 of 89 product audits. On March 9, Spencer S. Hsu, Ian Duncan, and Lori Aratani of the Washington Post reported that the Justice Department had opened a criminal investigation into the door plug failure.

A disregard for product safety, and the safety regulations that lead to desirable results such as planes not falling out of the sky, is a classic sign of an untoward pursuit of wealth and the corporate results necessary for same. The departure of top executives from The Boeing Company, a storied corporation, under a cloud of dishonor, suggests that the negative public reaction to the perceived consequences is acting as a rebuff, even a rethink, of the importance of safety regulations.

“Regulation is evil” is a fundamental tenet of the Republican Party, so we can, with some skepticism, take the actions at Boeing to reflect evolving American attitudes: a concern that a rejection of regulation may be less than wise. Similarly, the case built by Democrats that investing dollars in the IRS will result in a positive return, while forcing millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share, is a strong, if more indirect, rejection of the Republican Party tenet that taxation is evil.

All these together suggests we’re seeing a turning point in the political landscape. The substandard officials, both at the Federal and State levels, elected under the Republican banner, the Party chaos at both State and federal levels, the rejection of Republican tenets, the Dobbs decision and its crushing effects on Republican election results, fundamental disregard of democratic rights and norms, these are all acting together to outweigh Democratic blunders, such as botching the management of the transgenderism and border issues.

It’ll still take a catastrophic result to actually burn down the Republican Party, but I think that may occur in November. Large, unexpected losses in Congress, with elevated, unwarranted expectations assisted by Republican pollsters trying to encourage Republican voters, and Trump defeated by a large margin is where it starts. No doubt Mr Trump will be disgraceful in his loss. But, hopefully, actual violence will be limited and, more importantly, properly and publicly shamed by fellow citizens.

Only the compartmentalisation of information, both actively via conservative media, and passively through refusing to engage in active research, can save Republicans, in my opinion.

We may be seeing the beginning of the end of this incarnation of what was once, proudly, the Party of Lincoln.

Back in February, WaPo’s Travis Meier thinks his distaste for math qualifies him to judge the needs of society:

I’ve been sympathetic, if only contingently, to Republican squalling concerning Democratic meddling in Republican primary contests. Shouldn’t each Party be permitted to select its nominees without interference? There’s even a parallel to draw with the Russian interference in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential contests.

But E. J. Dionne, Jr. of WaPo brings a countering argument:

Is it a cougar following the high path?

Or just a squirrel pretending to be a miniature Bigfoot?

Do you remember Rep Buck’s (R-CO) prediction concerning the 118th Congress? Well, OK, I didn’t actually mention it before, so here it is:

What’s more, there’s no reason to assume that the list won’t grow: As the Post’s article added, Buck, whose last day is Friday [today], “warned that more resignations could be coming.” [Maddowblog]

And he was right:

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who announced last month he would not run for re-election, will resign from Congress early, he confirmed in a statement Friday. [NBC News]

Even more interesting:

Gallagher’s decision to leave April 19 also means that there will not be a special election to fill his seat. Under Wisconsin state law, vacancies after the second Tuesday in April are filled in the general election, so Gallagher’s replacement will be decided in November and his seat will remain empty until January.

My oh my, I’d call that a message sealed with flaming poo.

So, come April 13th, the Republican House advantage becomes 217-213, as Buck’s resignation becomes effective today for a 218-213 advantage and assuming no other effective events, but there’ll be no chance to recover from Gallagher’s resignation until the 119th Congress.

What is most interesting about this is that we now have three powers in the House, which has been true since the last Inauguration Day, but with the shrinking gap is becoming more and more critical. What are the powers?

1. Democratic members, who are currently highly disciplined, even unsettlingly well disciplined.
2. Freedom Caucus members, who need only abandon a Republican cause in very small numbers in order to sink it.
3. The balance of the Republican caucus, who have the same power as the Freedom Caucus. But do they know it, and are they willing to use it?

It’s getting cold in the Republican camp.

Of course, it’s a bit frustrating that Buck and Gallagher are unwilling to stay in Congress and vote against the nonsense, but the drama of actually resigning, of implicitly notifying the Freedom Caucus, and other extremists, that their behavior is unforgivable, has its own advantages. And if Speaker Johnson (R-LA) can be replaced with a Speaker sympathetic to our foreign policy needs, so much the better.

Will the resignations continue? Point to Buck for predicting someone would resign. But will he be right about more? Can Democrats flip those three Republican seats currently sitting empty while retaining the empty Democratic seat?

Ukraine’s government is watching with fierce attention, I’m sure. So, for that matter, is Putin.

Surety:

noun, plural sur·e·ties.

1. security against loss or damage or for the fulfillment of an obligation, the payment of a debt, etc.; a pledge, guaranty, or bond.
2. a person who is legally responsible for the debt, default, or delinquency of another.
3. a person who, as a sponsor, godparent, etc., has assumed or accepted responsibility for another’s debts or behavior.
4. the state or quality of being sure.
5. certainty.
6. something that makes sure; ground of confidence or safety.
7. assurance, especially self-assurance. [Dictionary.com]

Really? That word is overloaded. Noted in “New York attorney general disputes Trump’s claim that he can’t secure $464 million to post bond,” Graham Kates, CBS News:

[Dennis Fan, a senior assistant solicitor general for the state,] also briefly knocked many of the claims Trump made, noting that they’re not required to find just one underwriter to provide the entire bond, but instead can combine multiple sureties for the full total.

“Defendants’ argument that obtaining a full bond is purportedly impossible is based on the false premise that they must obtain a single bond from a single surety for the entire judgment amount of $464 million,” Fan wrote. “But appealing parties may bond large judgments by dividing the bond amount among multiple sureties, thereby limiting any individual surety’s risk to a smaller sum, such as $100 or $200 million apiece.”

DISASTER is when your spouse, her hands full, decides to try to open the gate with a karate kick, misses the latch completely, and loses her balance.

CATASTROPHE is when she drops the DQ ice cream cup she was carrying.

APOCALYPSE is when it lands upside down, in the sand.

EMBARRASSMENT is when it turns out you know all four of the horsemen that show up in response to her cursing, but you can’t remember the name of one of them. Was it Fred? John? Hildegaard? Damn, those skulls all look the same when the sky abruptly darkens and giants stride the Earth.

Gimme back our ice cream!

Waffel-frolic:

I suppose some might say archaic. To them, I say they have no sense of whimsy.