Unsightly Mental Blemishes

Attribution science:

A revolution in weather forecasting could soon see warnings of forthcoming heatwaves, storms or other extreme events accompanied by specific information on the role climate change has played in fuelling [sic] them, as meteorologists seek new ways to bring the reality of our warming planet home to the general public.

Key to this idea is the growing field of attribution science, which involves examining extreme weather events after the fact to quantify the impact of climate change. It involves simulating an event twice, first under real-world conditions and then again in a fictional world where there is no human-caused climate change. The difference between those two scenarios reveals the extent to which rising emissions made matters worse. [“Weather forecasts could warn about events made worse by climate change,” Madeleine Cuff, NewScientist (21 September 2024, paywall)]

That’s a new one.

Seen in Newsweek:

Gallego had 54 percent support among lively voters statewide, whilst Lake had 44 percent. With independents, Lake lagged behind on 32 percent compared to Gallego’s 64 percent.

Just a muscle twitch is good enough.

Who? Them? They went that away.

Gimme that hot foot food…

Didn’t I See A Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll The Other Day?

No, you saw a bunch of them. If you were looking.

I’ve decided to drop them, though, unless something comes up. I am filled with loathing and hesitancy when I see that name. Some of their polls look right, some radically do not, and, quite frankly, GIGO.

So no more incorporation of their results into my thinking.

Here’s The Rest Of The Herd

• In what I consider to be the most dramatic and unexpected race of the season – no, I’m not talking Marbula One – Senator Fischer (R-NE) is still measured as having a meager one point lead in Nebraska, 43%-42%, over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE). The problem for assessors? The pollster/sponsor is
  Global Strategy Group (1.8)/Retire Career Politicians. The latter is listed by FiveThirtyEight as a partisan group aligned with the Independent Party. It’s a red flag when the pollster, #126 in the FiveThirtyEight ratings, is somewhat weak, and the sponsor is partisan and would benefit from the candidate winning.

  That said, even keeping in mind the press release may be misleading, this statement is interesting:

  … after hearing positive biographies of both candidates, Osborn leads 48-40.

  The pair presses on with a clear partisan message that, nevertheless, may be accurate:

  In response to Osborn’s surge, the Fischer campaign has gone up with their first ad in the last week, an entirely negative message that highlights what is currently broken in American politics. Fischer’s main attack is that Osborn does not support Trump, which underscores how she has completely missed the point of Osborn’s independent campaign. Osborn is not supporting either major party candidate for president, he’s focused on fighting for all working people across party lines against political elites and the party bosses who are crippling our country.

  This may be the most exciting race to watch as we approach Voting Day.

• Maryland, widely considered a solid Democratic property, is also experiencing drama as Gov Hogan (R-MD), the former Republican governor who is quite popular, has made it a race despite the fear & loathing of local and national Republican extremists. But the latest bit of news comes from the other side of the ledger:
  

  Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maryland, improperly took advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens, saving thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in Washington, DC, and in Maryland.

  A CNN review of property records and tax bills shows that for both properties, Alsobrooks claimed for more than a decade a homestead tax exemption that is meant to apply only to someone’s primary residence, violating state and local tax relief requirements.

  She also improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half. Alsobrooks, 53, never qualified for that tax break, but her grandparents, who owned the property before her, likely did. [CNN/Politics]

  What the Democrats were no doubt hoping would be a non-event is anything but. Alsobrooks’ response?

  A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue.

  Not totally irresponsible, but perhaps a bit two-faced, as she’s “unaware” but her attorneys are working on it with the jurisdictions.

  So, of course, it’s necessary to ask what happens if Hogan wins. Do the Republicans disown him? As I’ve mentioned before, does he move over to the Democrats, or simply unregister from the Republicans? Or will he function as an exemplar for moderate Republicans and independents, implicitly rebuking the extremists currently in control of the Republican Party?

  This may turn out to be the second most exciting race this season.

• Who is Research America? FiveThirtyEight doesn’t know. Should I believe this unknown pollster or their sponsor, University of Mary Washington Center for Leadership & Media Studies, who I’ve never heard of? Should I take seriously their claim that Virginia’s Senator Kaine’s (D-VA) lead over challenger Hung Cao (R-VA) is only six points, 49%-43%?

  Probably not.

• Is Missouri hosting a possible upset of Senator Hawley (R-MO) by challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO)? Until today, I thought the answer was no. But this news report has made me thoughtful:
  

  Marcellus Williams, who spent more than two decades on Missouri’s death row convicted of a 1998 murder that he says he did not commit, died by lethal injection Tuesday evening after a lengthy and complex effort to exonerate him based on DNA testing issues.

  Williams, 55, was pronounced dead at the Potosi Correctional Center in Mineral Point.

  After two last-minute execution reprieves starting almost a decade ago, momentum to reexamine Williams’s decades-old conviction gathered from unlikely sources, including the local prosecutor from the office that convicted him. Williams received an outpouring of support from legal groups such as the Midwest Innocence Project and a member of Congress. The family of the victim in the 1998 St. Louis stabbing came to oppose Williams’s execution. [WaPo]

  I’m very disturbed that Mr. Williams was executed when even the prosecutors had raised doubts. This sounds like a heartless injustice, the sort of thing that stirs up riots and makes people wonder if they’re next. I know that some Republicans regard such doubts as little more than Democratic attempts to foil death sentences. I think such sentiments have even been expressed by conservative SCOTUS justices. But when the prosecutors say they got it wrong, it seems to me that it should be incumbent on elected officials, regardless of party allegiance, to investigate and delay, if necessary, such irremediable sentences.

  Missouri voters may be similarly upset by the Republicans who run and represent Missouri. And take out their anger on them.

• In Pennsylvania, MassINC Polling Group (a very respectable 2.8) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a seven point lead, 49%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a smaller lead of 47%-42%. Morning Consult (1.9) has a larger lead for the Senator of 49%-40%. These results are congruent with other respected pollsters in previous reports. Interestingly, Morning Consult’s sample size is twice that of each of the other two pollsters, but those pollsters are currently rated far ahead of Morning Consult. Has Morning Consult corrected a problem in data gathering?
• Wisconsin experiences the same three probes as Pennsylvania: MassINC Polling Group (2.8) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a lead of 52%-44% over Republican Eric Hovde (R-WI?), Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a 49%-46% lead, and Morning Consult (1.9) lead for the Senator is 50%-43%. Results like these are common enough for Wisconsin that I expect Senator Baldwin to retain her seat.
• Unknown pollster ActiVote, which certainly seems to lean conservative, is giving challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) a 51%-49% lead in Ohio over Senator Brown (D-OH). Do I take this seriously? Not on its own. Most other polls give Brown a lead.In other news, Oliver Willis on Daily Kos reports a potential faux pas by Mr Moreno:
  

  Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee for the Senate race in Ohio, told an audience on Friday that many women voters are solely focused on abortion rights. Moreno also said it was “crazy” for women over fifty to be concerned over the abortion issue at all.

  If this is true, it betrays a basic intellectual failure on Mr Moreno’s part to understand why humans band together and have governments: to not only gain safety and enjoy rights, but to ensure those rights extend to other members of the group. Uneven distribution on arbitrary basis results in uproar and disruption for the group, because we band together for mutual and equal support.

  Will this become a drag on Mr. Moreno’s campaign? No. It’s an abstract point and will be ignored or, even, looked upon favorably by those who have put individualism on an altar. Individualism is certainly a part of much of American culture, but, like any right or tradition, it has its limits, and when it becomes a danger to American society, it should be a limited tradition. But this is probably too abstract.

  It’s also important to note that Mr Moreno has abdicated on his responsibility to persuade his target audience of the rightness of his arguments. He is fixated on telling them that abortion no longer matters to the older crowd, implicitly, if ignorantly, admitting his arguments lack the moral force he thinks they have.

• The same ActiVote is giving Florida Senator Scott (R-FL) an eight point lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 54%-46%. The likelihood that the deeply unpopular Senator is at 54% strikes me as doubtful. It’s worth noting that ActiVote’s sample size is atypically, among all pollsters, small at 400 voters, and results in a margin of error of ±4.9 points.

  In other news, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele (R-MD), serving in that role back in 2009-2011, is predicting that Florida will go Democratic in the Presidential race this election, which would end Mr Trump’s ambitions. Whether or not that includes Senator Scott’s seat is not addressed.

• Massachusetts finally has polling, and it’s even respectable! University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Warren (D-MA) a 58%-32% lead over challenger John Deaton (R-MA), or 26 points, while MassINC Polling Group (2.8) is giving the Senator a similar lead of 56%-35%, or 21 points, over the cryptocurrency advocate.

  I’ll desist from any more Massachusetts reports unless a black swan is reported to be circling.

• Connecticut, too, has received a poll, from the suddenly prolific MassINC Polling Group (2.8), giving Senator Murphy (D-CT) a 51%-35% lead over challenger Matthew Corey (R-CT). I plan not to report any more Connecticut polls unless that bloody black bird appears.
• Texas gets some polling. First, Morning Consult (1.9) is giving Rep Allred (D-TX) a slender lead over Senator Cruz (R-TX) of 45%-44%. Second, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (unrated) is giving Senator Cruz the lead at 48%-45%. One pollster is unrated, and the other has a rating that is unimpressive: perhaps reasons not to be excited either way. Still, Allred’s team and voters have a reason to cheer, and that may be what they need. Notably,
  

  But the Dallas Democrat still appears to struggle with name identification as 30% of likely voters said they do not know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him.

  Which suggests Allred still has room to grow his share of the vote, while Cruz’ reputation, whatever it might be, is probably cemented with nearly all residents of Texas.

• And a respectable pollster, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (2.6), shows Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) leading Royce White (R-MN) 51%-40%. This margin is surprisingly small; I expected it to be double that. Margin of error is ±3.5 points.

In Conclusion …

I’ve fallen a ways behind due to feline illness and unexpected visitors, and this post is big enough already, so here’s the big sloppy mess, plumb in your lap. Another update soon enough. I hope you find it useful.

Anorak:

“Anorak” /ˈænəræk/ is a British slang term which refers to a person who has a very strong interest, perhaps obsessive, in niche subjects. This interest may be unacknowledged or not understood by the general public. The term is sometimes used synonymously with “geek” or “nerd“, or the Japanese term “otaku“, albeit referring to different niches. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Why are rich people so boring?” Rachel Tashjian, WaPo:

We’ve often talked about the hierarchy and allegiance, despite everything, of the Republican Party. The Charlotte Observer notes that the North Carolina Republican Party has taken it to an extreme with their candidate for Governor, senior member, holder of extremist, disgraceful opinion, and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R-NC):

Then there’s the North Carolina Republican Party, which has not only refused to disavow Robinson, but has even gone so far as to openly defend him. In a post on social media, the NCGOP wrote that Robinson “has categorically denied the allegations made by CNN but that won’t stop the Left from trying to demonize him via personal attacks.”

How disappointing that Robinson’s campaign staff appears to have more integrity than Republican leaders who were elected to serve the people of North Carolina.

Yes, most of Robinson’s campaign staff vamoosed when they were informed of Robinson’s alleged faux-pas. But the Party practiced Party discipline, sticking to what passes for their leaders, and now Robinson’s vote total may turn out to be on the order of the size of the Republican Party in North Carolina. He’s already way, way behind.

And, since Mr Trump endorsed Robinson in glowing terms, that Party allegiance may turn North Carolina blue, as they say, as voters move, albeit reluctantly, away from Republicans, and even to the Democrats.

This is the fruit of a toxic team culture, an exemplar of what I’ve predicted for years: Remove and even disdain such requirements as competency, compromise, and experience, whittle down your metrics to how loud someone can scream LOWER TAXES, LESS REGULATION, Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice, ABORTION IS EVIL … and after a while … WOMEN SHOULDN’T VOTE … and more and more, and, surprise surprise, the incompetent extremists rise to the top.

Now it’s up to the independent voters and moderate Republicans to kick the Republican Party out of power, to punish them for using a toxic team culture.

Erick Erickson acknowledges a possibility I brought up not too long ago, although I view it as a near-certainty:

But MAGA [in North Carolina] chose to go with Mark Robinson, a minister who had a weird kinky fetish history online and is among the walking dead of candidates now.

The drip, drip, drip of scandal is now going to continue because Robinson will not step aside by midnight. He will lose. He is ten points behind the Democrat in the polls right now.

The question now is, with the drip, drip, drip of scandal, does Robinson’s baggage have other ballot ramifications and open a path for Kamala Harris and the state’s 16 electoral college votes?

Those sixteen votes, as someone on Daily Kos pointed out, are located on the Eastern seaboard, which means the lean of North Carolina may become known to other would-be Republican voters in Middle-America before their polls close, and discourage them from otherwise voting

And thus does an electoral tsunami begin.

And while a lot of people – rightly – worry about “know-nothing” electoral officials refusing to certify results because of an unsubstantiated belief that the election is corrupt, a big enough wave of Democratic victories may motivate most of them to quietly do their jobs and avoid the possible prison sentences that might otherwise apply.

Erickson is in the process of pinning future blame on MAGA. What he doesn’t understand is that the Republican Party team politics toxic culture will most likely lead to another crisis in the Republican Party in the not too distant future. Until Gingrichian dictates are explicitly rejected as immature foolishness, the Republican Party will be at risk – or at sea.

My garden didn’t have any lilacs when I moved in, but a couple of years ago one appeared.

Now it’s trying to bloom for the second time this summer:

This summer may be a trifle too long for some of these plants.

Photoperiodism:

Photoperiodism merely refers to the potential of the plant to incite flowering relative to the changes in the photoperiod. Thus, photoperiod is a light duration or the length of day and night, while photoperiodism is the effect of light duration on the plant’s growth. [Biology Reader]

Noted in “Even simple bacteria can anticipate the changing seasons,” James Woodford, NewScientist (14 September 2024):

Despite being among the simplest forms of life on Earth, cyanobacteria are able to anticipate and prepare for the changing seasons based on the amount of light they are exposed to.

It has been known for more than a century that complex organisms can utilise day length as a cue for future environmental conditions – days get shorter before it gets colder, for example. Phenomena like migration, flowering, hibernation and seasonal reproduction are all guided by such responses in plants and animals, known as photoperiodism, but it has never been seen in simple life forms such as bacteria until now.

NewScientist has a quick report on a reversion … so to speak:

The world’s largest sailing cargo ship is making its maiden voyage across the Atlantic Ocean. It left a port in France in early August, and it is on track to deliver 1000 tonnes of cognac and champagne to New York City by 3 September. Its shipments have a carbon footprint one tenth that of a standard container ship.

“For centuries we knew wind was abundant [over] the deep sea, and we had the pilot charts,” says Guillaume Le Grand, CEO of TOWT, the French company that commissioned the 81-metre-long ship, named Anemos. “But now, thanks to satellite communication and routing technology, wind is also predictable, which makes it a reliable source of propulsion.”

Notice how the question of capacity is overlooked. Are container ships shipping more or less product? And does it make sense to measure in units, since fixed costs may vary greatly between the types?

What about risk?

Also, I’m not sure I’d agree that predictability makes for a reliable source of propulsion. On the other hand, as the Earth retains more and more energy, we may see more and stronger winds. And if they don’t blow?

When primarily relying on wind power, the ship [named Anemos] can reach speeds of more than 19 kilometres per hour [9.3MPH] – and it could potentially sail faster in stronger conditions such as the North Atlantic trade winds, says Le Grand. For backup propulsion, the ship uses two diesel-electric engines.

Still, it is exciting to see something that appears to be progress on carbon reduction in the shipping business.

I’ve railed on for years concerning why the Republicans have become less and less reasonable and competent. If the sociology of the Republican Party interests you, Professor Richardson presents a somewhat different view of her own. Key quote:

In those [gerrymandered] districts, the Republican candidates were virtually guaranteed election, so they focused not on attracting voters with popular policies but on amplifying increasingly extreme talking points to excite the party’s base. That drove the party farther and farther to the right. By 2012, political scientists Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein warned that the Republican Party had “become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition.”

Arrogance, in a word.

Well, I speculated it’d be an up and down ride for DJT, but it’s been mostly down:

I suspect the professional and/or habitual investors are well aware of the political component of DJT’s probability of success, and, assessing Mr Trump’s likelihood of political success in November, have chosen not to invest in this stock. That leaves those interested in manipulation, such as President Putin, and the MAGA base, most of whom are first-time investors. The latter, at least, do not have the financial muscle to keep DJT’s value elevated.

My own assessment is that the proper value of DJT is as a penny stock, which I take to mean being less than $1/share at this time. Reverse splits change this, of course, but I suspect DJT is actually in danger of going bankrupt at any time.

But I also wouldn’t short this. The political component makes it far too dangerous, given how shorting works.

It’s been a frenzy out there, use an umbrella to stay safe from rogue polls….

Debacle: North Carolina

Will the North Carolina embarrassment of nominating Mark Robinson (R-NC) for the governor’s race, in light of his extremism and dubious viewing matter as a fundamentalist Christian, affect the Senate races?

Only among those voters actually paying attention, and, given how busy our lives have become, that’s not a big number.

Still, there will be independents for whom this is a final straw. But don’t try to count them, even if they break the camel’s back, it’ll be small.

And Now For That Frenzy

• kos of Daily Kos has a report on how the Republican’s fixation on Haitian immigrants eating pets, a fallacious claim according to those in the know, may come back to bite them on the ass in Florida.Speaking of Florida, I just learned that Amendment 3 on the 2024 Florida ballot concerns legalizing recreational marijuana, an issue that will certainly lure some otherwise dormant voters to the polls, and as Senator Scott’s reputation for having run a corrupt company, and then for being generally repugnant during his Senatorial term, are quite negative, voters may simply pick the “not-Rick Scott” on the ballot, regardless of their knowledge and/or opinion of his challenger.That said, Morning Consult (1.9) shows Senator Scott (R-FL) continuing to show a consistent lead over challenger former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 46%-42%.
• It did happen before: Pollster GQR (1.9) shows Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) with a mere four point lead over challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO), 50%-46%. These numbers are in stark contrast to the last Missouri Senate poll I cited, a YouGov (2.9) poll giving Senator Hawley a large lead. Their disparate ratings throw a shadow on GQR’s poll results.Casting more doubt on this result is the fact that the sponsor of this poll is Democratic candidate Mr Kunce. GQR is new to me, but pollsters are known to skew results to make for happy customers. Similarly, pollster Change Research (1.4) is giving Hawley a five point lead, 46%-41%.Finally, a poll I didn’t cite when it came out, as I consider(ed) Missouri a settled issue, is that of Remington Research Group (a very respectable 2.6) from a week earlier than the GQR poll, finding Senator Hawley with an even bigger 52%-37% lead (here’s a link, but it’s not very good).So why am I not discarding the GQR poll? There are too many unknowns. Is GQR willing to skew its results, or is this an honest result? Is this quote trustworthy?
  

  “Hawley and his allies are clearly seeing the same movement in the polls,” a source close to the Kunce campaign told Newsweek on Friday, pointing to negative attack ads targeting the Democrat and increased ad spending by Hawley and his supporters.

  Is it important? Are pollsters really having trouble gathering data reflecting the youth vote, as progressives claim and divergences between poll and election results over the last two years suggest, and maybe GQR found a way to reach them?

  And what about the race between Senator Fischer (R-NE) and challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) in Nebraska? (Wait, what?) To recap, Mr. Osborn trailed Senator Fischer substantially in a series of dubious quality polls until highly respected YouGov (2.9), sponsored by Osborn, gave the Senator a two point lead, followed by similarly respected SurveyUSA (2.8), sponsored by Split Ticket, giving Senator Fischer a one point lead.

  Sure, the analogy isn’t nearly perfect. GQR’s rating is not that of YouGov and SurveyUSA, for example. There were two polls in Nebraska, while only one in Missouri.

  But there are also similarities. Republican political establishments in both States are unapologetically hostile towards abortion, motivated as they are by current social structures in their Party to be as uncompromising as possible. This attitude motivates otherwise dormant voters who’ve suddenly lost abortion protections and worry about it – and resent it. And there’ll be an abortion protection amendment on the Missouri ballot, a worthy encouragement.

  Finally, Senators Hawley and Fischer have similar profiles when it comes to their political positions; indeed, Hawley’s made positive noises about Christian Nationalism, demonstrating either ignorance or arrogance shocking in a former law professor and current Senator concerning the history and makeup of politics and governance in America.

  We’ll have to see more polls before deciding if this is an outlier poll – or a prescient poll.

  Incidentally, Newsweek also provides some good context on the previous polls, for which they deserve an earnest pat on the back.

  A Short While Later: Emerson College (2.9) has just published a poll giving Senator Hawley a twelve point lead, 51%-40%, over challenger Lucas Kunce. While, yes, Emerson has been trending a little conservative compared to other top pollsters, 11-12 points is quite a gap. Or even, perhaps, the GQR and Change Research polls, mentioned above, are wishful thinking.

• It’s not really worth mentioning: Lake Research Partners (1.2 … ugh) is awarding Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a 47%-43% lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX). That link isn’t really worth a click, and Texas Public Opinion Research is using a cut-rate pollster, so who knows if these numbers are good. However, the numbers are reasonable in the light of other polls.And here’s another one now: Morning Consult (1.9) is giving Rep Allred (D-TX) a small lead over Senator Cruz (R-TX), 45%-44%! Now, do you think Morning Consult is worth trusting?
• While it’s not unusual to hear that a politician is ambitious and arrogant, most of them usually figure out how to get along with the folks on their side. This may be another norm that’s breaking up in the Republican Party:
  

  Donald Trump declined to formally endorse Steve Garvey, the Republican running for Senate in California.

  “I don’t know much about Steve Garvey. I think he’s made a big mistake because he hasn’t reached out to MAGA,” Trump told reporters as he was leaving his news conference in Southern California. He added: “I’m hearing he wants the MAGA endorsement, but he’s got to call me.” [WaPo]

  Not that the Democratic candidate for the late Senator Feinstein’s (D-CA) seat, Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA), is likely to lose, no matter what the Republicans do short of getting God to come on down and endorse Mr. Garvey.

  But, you know, good for Mr Garvey and for California for shunning Mr Trump.

• Senator Brown (D-OH), defending his seat in Ohio against challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH), has another foe in league with Moreno: The cryptocurrency industry. The Senator does not seem unduly worried.For processed numbers, Morning Consult (1.9) gives the Senator a small lead of 46%-44%.
• In Minnesota, unknown pollster Embold Research, working for news site MinnPost, gives Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) an 11 point lead over challenger Royce White (R-MN), 52%-41%. A new pollster makes it hard to trust them, but eleven points is not entirely out of line.

  Mr White may have more troubles than just a popular incumbent to defeat:

  If you ask Minnesota Republicans about fellow GOP candidate Royce White, many are likely to pivot.

  White is the only Minnesota Republican running statewide this year, but fellow GOPers are keeping a distance on the campaign trail from a candidate with past legal troubles and known for derogatory remarks, some of which align with conspiracy theories. [MPR News]

  It’s hard to win when your Party is half-hearted about your candidacy.

• While Cygnal (2.1) may be a conservative pollster who seems to skew poll numbers, I’ll nevertheless note, in respect of their fairly good rating, that they give Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a mere one point lead, 44%-43%, over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) for the soon-to-be-empty Michigan seat. I’m sure that’s within the margin of error. It’s also a strong contrast to Morning Consult’s (1.9) polling showing a nine point lead for Slotkin in the last update. And then there’s a Quinnipiac University (2.8) poll showing Slotkin with a 51%-46%, or five point, lead, ker-plunk in the middle.

  Marist College (2.8) has Slotkin leading 52%-45%, while Emerson College (2.9) has the lead at 47%-42%, and a later Morning Consult poll … this must be a typo, but I can’t verify it … a lead of 51%-37%. What does it all mean? Michigan may still be a tight race.

• Emerson College (2.9) is giving the Democratic candidate for the open Maryland seat, County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), a seven point lead, 49%-42%, over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD … sort of).  Morning Consult (1.9) gives Alsobrooks a bigger lead of 50%-39%, and Public Policy Polling (1.4) give Alsobrooks a ridiculous lead, at least in comparison with better rated pollsters, of 50%-33%. Honestly, I’m not taking that last pollster seriously, but there is a point made by them:
  

  Part of Hogan’s problem is that a fair number of conservatives remain suspicious of him. His favorability with Trump voters is only 54/32 and that’s sending 14% of them over to vote for the Libertarian candidate. Hogan does tighten the race to 52-37 in a head to head but that represents a widening from 48-40 in June as well.

  And the MAGA base is suspicious and inflexible. Either you’re bought fully into their world-view, or you are out. Often, right wing pundits will remark that the Republican tent is so big they’re hard to keep together, but, to my eye, it’s shrinking due to furious demands of purity, and we’ve been seeing such demands for more than a decade.

• Hey! Indiana does exist! Emerson College (2.9) is giving the Republican candidate for the open Indiana Senate seat, Rep Jim Banks (R-IN), a 47%-33% lead over Democrat Valerie McCray (D-IN). This is an improvement over the last Senate contest in Indiana, back just two years ago, when Senator Young (R-IN) won by 20+ points. The mountain still seems overwhelming for McCray.
• Suffolk University (2.9) is giving Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) a four point lead, 47%-43%, over Mr. McCormick (R-PA), which must be a bit disappointing for Pennsylvania Democrats. InsiderAdvantage (2.0) is scarcely more encouraging at 49%-44% for Casey, and a 2.0 rating is mediocre. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is evenly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, or so recent history suggests, so Pennsylvanians will be exposed heavily to the Presidential candidates between now and November. If either has a public meltdown it may affect the Senate contest as well. Finally, Quinnipiac University (2.8) is giving the Senator a much larger lead, 52%-43%, with a margin of error of ±2.7 points. You don’t get to cancel Suffolk with Quinnipiac, Democrats, but you can try to reconcile the clashing results with yoga.A Little Later: SIX MORE POLLS appeared, ranging from the two being even (Washington Post) to a nine point lead (The New York Times/Siena College). Here’s the link, but it’s a dynamic page, I’m here to publish and not drive myself mad with data.
• Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) has two polls in her favor over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?): Quinnipiac University (2.8) gives her a 51%-47% lead, and Frankensteinian Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) has the race at 50%-47%. Meanwhile, Emerson College (2.9) also gives Baldwin a lead, this time 49%-46%.
• Senator Warren (D-MA) scoops up some headlines in Massachusetts by advocating for cheap money:
  

  Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a half percent cut to benchmark interest rates on Wednesday — the first cut since March 2020. The move was cheered by Wall Street as a boon for the economy and will help make mortgages, car loans and business loans more affordable.

  While a half percent cut is considered large, the Senator from Massachusetts wanted more. Warren, along with two senate colleagues, sent a letter to Powell’s office on Monday ahead of the announcement, advocating for the Fed to cut rates by three-quarters of a percent. [WBUR]

  If Senator Warren is trying to backseat drive for Mr Powell, perhaps she should volunteer to join the Fed the next time an opening comes available.

• Rhode Island gets its first Senate race poll since their primaries from University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6), and it shows Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) leading challenger Patricia Morgan (R-RI) 51%-33%. That’s not so much a mountain to climb as a walk to the Moon, and I doubt I’ll be mentioning this race again unless the black swan comes by.

A number of polls were ignored, since New Mexico, New York, and others do not appear to be in doubt. Feel offended? Visit FiveThirtyEight yourself.

Stop looking for polls!

On the whole, Sir, I cannot help expressing a wish that every member of the Convention who may still have objections to it, would with me, on this occasion doubt a little of his own infallibility–and to make manifest our unanimity, put his name to this instrument.”–He then moved that the Constitution be signed by the members and offered the following as a convenient form viz. “Done in Convention, by the unanimous consent of the States present the 17th. of Sepr. &c–In Witness whereof we have hereunto subscribed our names.” – Benjamin Franklin to the Federal Convention

The arrogance of humanity, identified. My thanks to Professor Richardson for pointing me at this quote, delighting me.

OK, the guy on the right is just the smallest bit fun. But no more than that.

From Time To Time (2009) is a saccharine and unchallenging movie concerning the ghosts of children who can time travel. This isn’t challenging, you say? No, it’s not.

It doesn’t say Hallmark, but it should.

Such fantasy movies need strong motivations, such as an otherwise terrible fate, and this is not really conveyed to the audience, as nearly everyone is, ya know, dead. It puts a real pall on the movie.

Dull and Boring are, I believe, the producers. Don’t bother.

It’s been a while since I’ve dipped into the “conservative” email bloodstream, and I’m not going to actually rip another one apart here. They’re either offensive or, worse, simply inferior to previous examples.

However, I cannot resist this anti-immigrant poster here, as it’s a bright example of a now-chronic problem for conservatives – projection:

Here’s but one example of projection from January 6th, 2021, a date that will live in infamy…

There were a number of others, but the point is made: hostile folks running around with their hair afire, waving their own flags. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

I’m glad I’m not living in Lebanon:

Footage shared online shows people in Lebanon going about their days before their pagers exploded.

In one video, a man is seen shopping in a fruit and vegetable market before an object explodes from his midriff. The man collapses to the ground and cries out in pain, while other bystanders scatter in fear.

In another, security camera footage shows a man about to pay for goods at a store before something on his person explodes, sending a burst of smoke into the air.

In another, a person films the damage inside a bedroom after an apparent explosion. Two holes have been torn through the top and bottom of a drawer, smashing a nearby mirror and scattering debris across the room. [CNN]

Reminds me of Stand On Zanzibar by John Brunner, which is weird since I don’t remember anything more of the novel than a scene in which a soldier is killed with a nanowire. I get the impression the novel was all about future political violence, which I suppose we’ve been living ever since that novel was published in 1968.

My Arts Editor and I occasionally watch clothing designer shows together, but this was something else. It left me gaping.

I don’t know anything about the fashion world, but it appears Robert Wun treats the designer shows more like a moving art installation than something that looks, at least superficially, like clothing. It is slightly reminiscent of the late Lee Alexander McQueen’s work, with which I’m familiar only because of the documentary McQueen (2018): the telling of a story as a designer show.

This Robert Wun show was delightful.

In The Dash

Is the vice president hitting her stride?

Democratic U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 47% to 42% in the race to win the Nov. 5 presidential election, increasing her advantage after a debate against the former president that voters largely think she won, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Thursday.

The two-day poll showed Harris with a five percentage point lead among registered voters, just above the four-point advantage she had over Trump in an Aug. 21-28 Reuters/Ipsos poll. [Reuters]

Ipsos has a 2.3/3 star rating from FiveThirtyEight.

A five point lead is larger than my last citation, which was four, but it’s still not big enough, to be conservative about it.

Oh, And This …

A local interview quoted an Iowan as saying this was not about a date with Mr. Trump, but a vote, and they were voting Trump. Unfortunately, the two are a lot more alike than perhaps that Iowan realizes.

And speaking of Iowa, the Iowa Poll, conducted by highly respected Selzer & Co (2.8), shows a startling shift in the Presidential race in Iowa:

Kamala Harris has significantly narrowed the presidential race in Iowa, cutting Donald Trump’s lead to 4 percentage points in a dramatic turnaround from Joe Biden’s double-digit deficit.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring. [Des Moines Register]

If Iowa is suddenly competitive, then that suggests other states regarded as Republican safe territories are suddenly not. While Selzer expresses strong doubt that Harris can actually take Iowa, it’s worth wondering if Iowa’s six electoral votes are worth pursuing by a Harris or Walz stop in, say, Des Moines.

In fact, Trump is in so much trouble that Democrats have some helpful advice:

“If we are being honest, last night’s debate performance by former President Donald Trump was disastrous and hard to watch,” Moskowitz said Wednesday in a statement titled, “Trump’s ability to continue campaign.”

“I believe now is the time for the former President to have those difficult conversations about whether or not he should continue serving as the Republican Party’s nominee for President,” Moskowitz continued. “For now, I want to give him the space to meet with his family and make that decision.” [The Hill]

Advice that I’ve given to the Republican Party.

Less than two months ago.

Or so goes the old stock market aphorism, and, sure, it’s a good one. But it also explains this:

Former President Donald Trump lashed out at Nasdaq over a routine trading halt in shares of his social media company and even threatened to move the listing to the New York Stock Exchange.

“Why is NASDAQ halting the sale of DJT?” Trump said Friday on Truth Social, referring to the ticker symbol of Truth Social owner Trump Media & Technology Group. “What right do they have to do this? They have done it twice today. What’s going on?”

Trump suggested Nasdaq was “taking orders from the SEC,” an agency he accused of delaying Trump Media’s merger “for political reasons.”

What happened is Trump Media’s stock, which trades on the Nasdaq Composite, skyrocketed on Friday, after Trump himself made very big news: He announced he won’t be selling shares in the company.

That spike was so big that it triggered two five-minute trading pauses designed to provide a cooling period. [CNN/Business]

The trading halts are a non-sequitur, which I suspect Mr Trump put out there in order to keep his base enraged, banking on the likelihood that his base will be ignorant of standard procedures and take it as persecution. Heck, I wasn’t aware of this procedure, although it makes sense on its face.

The real news is that, as I bolded above, Mr Trump will not be attempting to sell out of his company. I think investors chose to read this as Mr. Trump having confidence in his company’s future. But now investors need to consider these questions:

1. What is Mr Trump’s investment term? Five years? Five months? Five minutes? All of these are congruent with his statement. And keep in mind Mr. Trump is quite old at this point; it may not make sense for him to make a promise on the order of decades.
2. When he does sell out, what does the company have? Will he even continue to use Truth Social? He is its star attraction, after all.
3. If his investment term is best measured in a few days, that is, his statement is effectively a lie, then is it true that this is a sophisticated pump ‘n dump, once again taking advantage of MAGA-heads who are naive, vulnerable investors?
4. Does his business history, both in Truth Social and his other businesses, justify a continuing stake in Truth Social?

DJT – Click to enlarge.

In other words, and in reference to that hoary old aphorism, above, Truth Social was sitting near or at the bottom of its market cap range when he published that remark; it then regained a small amount of value. I won’t be the least surprised if he continues to publish remarks that burnish the image of Truth Social. Some of it will be double talk, as the SEC frowns on outright lies concerning publicly traded companies and their stock – and a SEC frown can lead to a term in the pokey. But he may try to double talk his company back to some price level where he’ll feel that he can make an acceptable amount of money by selling out.

Nor is it out of the realm of the possible that the price will rise on its own. Not that I think the MAGA-heads or the QAnon types have the kind of buying power to raise the price of DJT more than momentarily. However, a foreign adversary may prop the price up using the resources of a big nation, if they see advantage in putting Mr. Trump in a position where he owes them something. Their investment would not be in hopes that DJT goes up in price, except to the extent that it makes Mr. Trump happy, but rather they hope that Mr. Trump will attain the Presidency, again – and they can hope to manipulate him.

The next month’s behavior of DJT may prove very interesting.

Seiche:

A seiche (/seɪʃ/ SAYSH) is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water. Seiches and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, swimming pools, bays, harbors, caves, and seas. The key requirement for formation of a seiche is that the body of water be at least partially bounded, allowing the formation of the standing wave. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “A landslide triggered a 650-foot mega-tsunami in Greenland. Then came something inexplicable,” Laura Paddison, CNN/Climate:

The subsequent mega-tsunami — one of the highest in recent history — set off a wave which became trapped in the bendy, narrow fjord for more than a week, sloshing back and forth every 90 seconds.

The phenomenon, called a “seiche,” refers to the rhythmic movement of a wave in an enclosed space, similar to water splashing backwards and forwards in a bathtub or cup. One of the scientists even tried (and failed) to recreate the impact in their own bathtub.

I wonder what that does to the fish!

We have a door to the computer room we rehabbed by scraping off the paint and restaining it. Unfortunately, this scraped up the little windows in it, so Deb found a solution which occasionally gives us quite a colorful display.

Oh, and here’s one now:

Add creepy music and stir.

Steve Benen summarizes the nightmare of a debate for Mr Trump:

A few weeks ago, Kamala Harris delivered an acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention and told an obvious truth: Donald Trump, the vice president reminded voters, is “easy to manipulate.” In context, she was referring to foreign powers, but the simple observation also proved to be the basis for Harris’ strategy for her first debate against the former president.

Headed into the event, the Democrat’s strategy was hardly a secret. I lost count of how many published reports I saw exploring Harris’ plan to bait the Republican with traps she hoped he’d fall into. Hillary Clinton told The New York Times last week that she’d spoken to her party’s candidate about the debate, and the former secretary of state said her advice was straightforward: “She should bait him. He can be rattled.”

In theory, Trump and his team should’ve seen all of this and prepared accordingly. After all, Democrats spent weeks effectively broadcasting their playbook, telling the whole world exactly what Harris intended to do. It was like watching the run-up to a Super Bowl, in which one team’s coaches speak publicly about which plays they are eager to call.

But in practice, the GOP nominee simply couldn’t help himself.

It’s been a long summer, and the succulents seem to love it.

And Mr Trump has long been rumored to be both a misogynist and a bigot. I can’t really speak to those points, although circumstantial evidence does support the contention – including this one.

A bigot, and a misogynist is a bigot as it applies to women, isn’t just a hater. A bigot has a certain set of beliefs concerning a group of people that is at variance with reality. For example, the Southern racists believed their slaves were, truly, subhuman, and when freed slaves formed military units and marched against the Confederates, sometimes successfully, it was a shock for the Confederates. Welcome to reality, boys, and hell is your first stop after you’re dead.

Thus, the reports that Trump hardly prepared, if at all, make sense: he believes himself innately superior to his opponent, a woman, and thus didn’t prepare. He discovers, too late, the discordancy of his beliefs with reality, and loses so badly he feels it necessary to run back out and “report” snap polls made him the victor.

And it doesn’t help that he’s aged and mentally deficient, untrained in governance, and generally a failure in his one term.

This is why true bigots continually fail, with only occasional success when their opponents are also unprepared: they don’t apprehend reality properly. That’s what appeared to happen with Mr Trump.

Results are delivered via rake… previous results were delivered via coffee filter….

Hey, About Morning Consult

Morning Consult (1.8) released a number of polls overnight, and I noticed they use a larger sample size than most pollsters. It guarantees nothing, but it does make it more likely they’ll get accurate results.

Chances are. That 1.8 rating still doesn’t look good.

Most Obvious Right-Wing Grifter Pollster

Obviously, this is all speculation, since there are no objective baselines from which to measure; other sensibilities must be used to make the call. For me, claiming Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has a mere six point lead, 42%-36% over challenger Royce White (R-MN), when that gap should be in the upper teens, is a big red flag, and we can see that in previous, far more authoritative polls. A supporting flag is the insistence of the pollster that Minnesota is, somehow, a swing State! No, we learned our lesson from former Senator Coleman (R-MN) and former Governor Pawlenty (R-MN), and the Minnesota Republicans. Some folks were fine with them, but most of us didn’t enjoy the experience.

So, step on forward, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (unknown to FiveThirtyEight, no surprise there!), and receive your prize, a good, old-fashioned clout^[1] upside the head. Not all of their polls seem fraudulent, but that Minnesota poll makes me wonder who else they’re misleading, and whether they’re being paid gobs of money to do so.

That Presidential Debate Means Nothing To The Senate Races, Right?

And I saw this! Yes, that big collapse in price is this morning, the morning following the debate.

No, I didn’t watch the debate. My appetite for political events and analysis is actually quite limited. However, I’ve seen bits and pieces, along with other analyses, enough to convince me that Mr Trump’s string may have run out last night.

And, if this is so, the various GOP Senate candidates who are in tight races may have cause to bitterly blame Mr Trump come November, as independents and moderate Republicans who might’ve been inclined to vote for Mr Trump and his allies scurry hurriedly away, convinced that the GOP has become peopled by the terminally crazed and their parasites.

And will Mr Trump abandon the ticket? While I don’t want to be another But he’s a racist! parrot, he’s more or less a misogynist, and so being chased from the race by Mz Harris may be a bit too much for him to swallow.

I think it’s entirely possible that two or three Republican Senate candidates who are thought to at least have a chance, such as Scott and Cruz, may suddenly be viewed as being in the same room as Trump, and voters will walk swiftly away.

Finally, I believe all the polls cited in this message date from before this debate.

The Rake’s Leavings

• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Arizona gives Rep Gallego (D-AZ) an eight point lead over Republican candidate and election denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), 49%-41%. That’s a trifle on the short side of other, more reputable pollsters, with the noteworthy exception of Emerson College. Meanwhile, Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Rep Gallego a six point lead of 48%-42%. Go figger.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Florida gives Senator Scott (R-FL) a five point lead over former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 47%-42%. And then, in a puzzling move, Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Senator Scott a smaller lead of three points, 44%-41%. Is this pollster trying to zig enough to make them seem trustworthy? Or does their “true” reading of the race have Mucarsel-Powell actually leading? It’s even puzzling that they would list Florida as a swing state. That is the fervid hope of Democrats, but right now both Senators and most of the Representatives are Republican, as is the State Legislature. Maybe poll sponsor The Telegraph, a UK news site, wants to fill more inches?
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Maryland gives Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) a five point lead over Republican candidate and former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), 48%-43%. This must be giving Democrats little nightmares. On the other hand, they may plan to ask Hogan to switch parties if Alsobrooks fails. It’s not like the national Republican Party is a warm & comforting home to a politician of Hogan’s middle-of-the-road stripes.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Michigan gives Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a nine point lead over Republican candidate and former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI), 49%-40%, while YouGov (2.9) is giving Rep Slotkin a seven point lead, 48%-41%. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Rep Slotkin a five point lead, 44%-39%. And co/efficient (1.1, which is nearly the bottom of the heap), possibly competing with Redfield & Wilton Strategies for top douchebag pollster, has Rep Slotkin’s lead at one, 39%-38%. Yep, that’s four polls in Michigan on this report, affirming the quality of Michigan restaurants.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Ohio gives Senator Brown (D-OH) a nine three point lead over Republican candidate Bernie Moreno (R-OH), 46%-43%.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Pennsylvania gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a nine point lead over Republican candidate David McCormick (R-PA?), 49%-40%, while YouGov is giving Senator Casey a seven point lead, 48%-41%. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is giving Senator Casey a lead of eight points, 44%-36%, and that 36% share suggests Mr McCormick is simply not that popular with voters, if you take this pollster seriously. co/efficient (1.1) is giving Senator Casey a 45%-36% lead. which is healthy enough, although a 1.1 rating is hardly inspiring of any confidence in their accuracy.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Texas gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) a five point lead over Democratic candidate Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), 47%-42%.
• Morning Consult’s (1.8) latest poll in Wisconsin gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a seven point lead over Republican candidate Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 49%-42%., while YouGov (2.9) is giving Senator Baldwin a nine point lead, 51%-43%, Marquette University Law School (3.0) gives Senator Baldwin a six point lead, 51%-45%, and BK Strategies (1.3 – why do I even bother?) gives Senator Baldwin a slimmer lead of 49%-44%, a five point lead.
• In Missouri, a circuit court disqualified from this November’s ballot the Abortion Amendment to the State’s Constitution that I mentioned earlier, and then, a couple of days later, as if to illustrate the fragility of citizens’ rights, the Supreme Court of Missouri hurriedly reversed that ruling, putting the amendment back on the ballot. If that doesn’t shake up voters, I’m not sure what will. This particular version permits abortions up until fetal viability, so it sounds like a nightmare for physicians, but at least it’s progress for patients. But will it affect the Hawley (R-MO) – Kunce (D-MO) contest? It may make Hawley’s margin smaller, but so far there’s no indications of an upset in the making.
• Rhode Island has finally held its primaries, as Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) wins nomination for reelection, and his challenger will be state Rep. Patricia Morgan (R-RI). On The Issues has little information on Patricia Morgan. Democratic primary voters outnumbered Republican primary voters more than 2 to 1.

And Now For A Commercial-Free Break

• Remember, you pay for cable so that you never have to watch a commercial again. That, folks, is what they were telling us on Showtime 50 years ago. Welcome to the insatiable financial maw of companies, eh? That’s not irrelevant to the question of Senate campaigns.
• For those who are interested in trivia, the rake picked up polls from Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, and Missouri, with the expected results. That’s why they’re stuck in the rake.

No more room for substantive content, I’ve run out of bits.

¹ Clout has a delightful set of meanings that lend themselves to mildly disgusting visuals. Keep in mind that the piece of cloth version often refers specifically to the small piece of cloth concealing one’s genitals.

There’s a difference, of course, between promises and ability, as Transport Topics notes:

Former U.S. President Donald Trump said that if elected he would declare a national energy emergency to “achieve a massive increase in domestic energy supply” to bring gasoline below $2 a gallon. He would also reduce electricity prices, he said.

A goal of sub-$2 gasoline, last seen during the pandemic shutdown that caused demand to collapse, would be difficult to achieve, since presidents have little control over pump prices.

In an address to the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5, Trump also pledged to rescind unspent funding from Democrats’ signature climate law in the most definitive remarks yet on his intentions for the Inflation Reduction Act.

That’s one way to alienate fossil fuel company executives. They must be feeling a bit lonely these days, what with Mr Trump offering to betray them on one side, and Democrats discouraging demand for their products on the other, and many of their children suggesting their own parents are dooming their future.

But, if you’re angry about energy prices, along with the above, remember this: Mr Trump is a mildly successful actor. He’s quite capable of being convincing on a subject over which he’d actually have little or no influence.

And that’s today’s PSA.