Unsightly Mental Blemishes

It appears Republican hopes in the Michigan Senate race are fading:

Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee, leads Republican Trump in Michigan 53-41, according to a poll conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing between May 30 and last Wednesday. …

U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat from Bloomfield Township, leads Republican challenger John James of Farmington Hills, 51-36, with 13% undecided or refusing to say. [Detroit Free Press]

This is roughly twice the gap from the previous poll that had come to my attention with regards to Senator Peters (D-MI) reelection chances.

And, of course, Biden appears to enjoy a tremendous lead in Michigan. It’s still a long ways to November, and there are many possible potholes facing Biden, so he has to continue projecting bold leadership – from his basement – and concentrate on talking about the current incompetency in the White House, and detail how he’ll reintroduce competency and integrity to the White House. He almost must keep his constituencies confident that their concerns will be addressed, if he does win. Chief among these are the black community, who essentially forced the Democrats to choose him, and he must retain their confidence.

Keep an eye on the polls.

They should have been on Survivor.

Lost In Space (1998) can never make it past its original pained premise. Earth is doomed to environmental disaster, but the Robinsons, with their trusty, if lascivious, pilot Major Don West, are blazing a path to the only other known livable planet in the Galaxy to, you know, maybe ruin it, too.

Yeah.

And two young Robinson kids will be occupying important posts. They happen to be prodigies with all the usual irritating stereotypical kid things.

Robot and Mr. Smith are there as well, and I will happily admit the robot is fairly cool.

It was sort of vaguely entertaining when I saw it in the theater back in ’98 – not to mention excellent CGI for the time. The action is non-stop, but then we get into time travel, with all of its conundrums. The audience applauded in ’98 at the end, but I did not when I saw it recently. The show is essentially themeless.

Not worth your time unless you’re a completist for any of the actors.

One of the problems of data analysis is being able to trust the results in the face of questionable data collection and coverage practices. For example, WaPo has a longish article on the problems of understanding the range and character of deaths of people by police force:

Amid the turmoil, nobody could answer a simple question: How often do police shoot and kill someone? No one knew for sure, because no government agency kept a comprehensive count.

The Post’s database relies significantly on reporting from local media outlets on shootings in their own communities. The amount of reporting done on individual shootings has declined, probably a victim of the continued cuts by local media outlets.

But fatal shootings by police have not slowed — even though the pandemic closed businesses, shuttered schools and effectively shut down much of American life for weeks on end. In May 2019, police shot and killed 74 people. In May of this year, police shot and killed 109 people.

WaPo maintains its own database because no one seems to have a reliable and official database available.

And:

Fatal shootings by police are a limited metric for answering larger questions about how police use their powers, experts said. Whether a shooting is fatal may depend entirely on a few centimeters in the trajectory of a bullet.

No nationwide data exists on how often police shoot and wound someone, or how often they fire and miss. And no comprehensive national data exists on how other kinds of force — such as chokeholds or the use of batons or stun guns — are used.

“The fatalities is a very good measure of some things, but doesn’t include the kinds of events and activities that we’re seeing all over the country that normally don’t lead to death,” said Alpert, the criminology professor. “Unless there’s an injury or unless there’s a complaint that gets traction, either we don’t know, or it doesn’t matter.”

So when we want to analyze the situation, it almost seems hopeless – the data is not trustable, not granular enough, and how do we measure the racism inherent in redlining and profiling and, say, the casual racism of this woman:

The staff at progressive web site The Daily Kos sees a Trump ad buy in Ohio, won by Trump in 2016 by 8 points, as a signal that Trump has already lost:

So they’re spending money to shore up Ohio, which is for presidential election purposes an irrelevant state! It’s as if Democrats spent money playing defense in Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won by 2.4% in 2016. Because if we lose Nevada (or Minnesota, another close 2016 state), we’ve already lost enough other states to call it a day.

Or to put it another way, Trump’s problem isn’t Ohio. His problem is that his national numbers have tanked, and because of that it’s potentially putting reach-states like Iowa, Ohio, and Texas in play. But Ohio isn’t going to cost him the election. It’ll be the seven battlegrounds that will fall to Biden long before—and by a bigger margin than—Ohio ever will.

So why spend money on such ads in Ohio?

So there are two options: The first is that Trump is dictating where money should be spent. It would be just like him to assume he knows more than the experts and usurp their judgment. It’s easy to imagine Trump seeing a poll showing him narrowly losing Ohio and panicking, then ordering his campaign to go on the air in a state that won’t be deciding who wins or loses.

That theory fits in with the kind of campaign Trump is running: one based on his own prejudices, score-settling, and whatever else his lizard brain demands. It’s the kind of campaign that thinks mocking Biden for wearing a mask is effective when 72% of Americans agree on the importance of wearing a mask. It’s a campaign build on getting cheers from the QAnon deplorables, not on winning the actual votes he needs to win an actual election.

The other option is that his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, is actually bad at his job. It’s not as if Trump has ever surrounded himself with the best and the brightest. So it’s not a stretch to think that Parscale is just another in a long list of failures inside Trump’s orbit.

Personally, I think they have to dig a little deeper in the swamp. The Trump Campaign has an amazing amount of money for a campaign that appears to be going down to defeat. By buying ads in Ohio, they’re transferring some of that money, sent by loyal donors, from their coffers to someone in Ohio. The Daily Kos staff might want to consider following the money.

Wouldn’t it be interesting if it turned out to involve firms under the influence of the Trump family?

Odder things have happened in politics. I’m not even sure it’d be illegal. But I’m guessing the fees would be steeper than usual.

In Texas, Reeves County GOP chairperson LaDonna Olivier manages to put her foot in her mouth and just about get it down to her gullet.

LaDonna Olivier, GOP chairperson from Reeves County, shared a post on Monday saying “people are trying to turn George [Floyd] into a saint” but he was a “brutal criminal.” [Texas Tribune]

How many ways can this be wrong?

1. The police are the police. They are not judges, jury, or executioner.
2. The police almost certain were not aware of George Floyd’s criminal record, if any. Suggesting that it was OK to commit homicide extra-judicially in this context is utter nonsense. Given their likely lack of knowledge, even this exceptionally weak justification breaks down.
3. The entire weakness of Olivier’s argument suggests a bigoted position. This isn’t a thoughtful argument; instead, it uses some emotional trigger words, namely “saint” and “brutal criminal” in close juxtaposition. For those readers who don’t understand, or take seriously, such arguments, please purchase and read The Persuaders.
4. And, finally, this isn’t a serious assessment of a situation in which protests are taking place in cities and towns large and small. In a WaPo article on the same subject, they quote her, although I don’t know the source of the interview:
   

   “I said he was no angel,” Olivier said in an interview. “My concern is all the rioting and people not knowing what’s going on, making something so huge out of it. There are more important issues of people dying or being killed. Nobody cries about the abortions. The police were wrong, but from what I’ve seen on his medical records he was high on drugs.”

   The reference to abortion is another use of an emotional keyword, a reminder that, Hey, the Democrats are evil baby-killers! if I may paraphrase the lost soul Erick Erickson. Olivier is speaking as GOP attack dog first, not as an American citizen faced with one of the most important and chronic issues which threaten the prosperity of the United States. Abortion is nothing more than a squirrel, an attempt to avoid having to address an issue at all. And, while there have indeed been reports of Floyd being high on something – fentanyl was one mentioned, although I’m a little surprised toxin screens came back so fast – all the videos I’ve seen of the arrest have shown a cooperative Floyd, not a combative man.

Only four. I’m a little disappointed in myself. Other thoughts?

The visual is damning, but also a lovely way to illustrate how the black community is mistreated by police:

From here.

It appears Arizona is sliding into an abyss that President Trump wouldn’t have believed existed. This is a Fox News poll (reformatted):

If the Arizona election for U.S. Senator were today, would you vote for (as of 30 May-2 Jun 20)
Democrat Mark Kelly: 50%
Republican Martha McSally: 37%
(Other) 3%
(Wouldn’t vote) 2%
(Don’t know) 8%

And, since we’re here, Trump trails Biden 42% to 46%.

The last poll I saw had Kelly with a 9 point lead; now it’s 13. As I always say, it’s a long ways to the actual election, but the poll trends have definitely been for Kelly and against McSally, who, from comments concerning the press, appears to be firmly esconced in the right win echo chamber. If this should continue, a 20 point loss would leave the Arizona GOP in ideological ruins.

But the loss of Arizona both in the Presidential and Senate columns would mark a definite rupture of the Republican firewall on which they’ve depended for their dominant position in the Senate, as well as holding the Presidency. Whether or not it’s loss would also mark the beginning of the dissolution of the Republican Party is a much murkier question to answer, though.

In response to my piece on the NFL changing its position on taking a knee during the playing of the national anthem at football games over the last year, a reader writes:

He’d [Kaepernick] somehow have to become a very good quarterback for anyone to want to hire him. And not be a locker room cancer[.] Better players than him have been let go because they were an overall detriment to the team.

I’ve never paid attention to the NFL to the extent that I could comment on many players outside of the Minnesota Vikings, and I haven’t paid attention to the Vikes for a good decade, if not more. So my thoughts on the skills of Colin Kaepernick are confined to the observation that he was a starting Super Bowl quarterback, and, from what I read in a bit of research, a credible attack both on the ground and through the air.

But that was several years ago. If he’s lost a step or his arm is no longer good then he’s not as valuable. At age 32, he’s a trifle old compared to the average quarterback, but that’s apples and oranges – he’s had several years off from the grind and may be far healthier than that average quarterback.

But I suspect he’s not a danger of being a locker room cancer. I doubt there’s a significant number of black players that disagree with his stand on the issue of taking a knee, and probably most of the white players, if they didn’t before, will agree with him now. My sense is that the nation’s citizenry is rapidly learning how the black community has been oppressed over the entire lifetime of this country, and while some are resistant to learning – the police forces of certain cities seem to be enjoying dealing out brutality, for example – I am hoping most will figure it out. For those readers who may be feeling uncertain about the black community’s woes, WaPo published a fine piece on the matter. Recently, notorious right wing pundit Erick Erickson expressed doubt as to the reality expressed in the phrase ‘white privilege’, because he had worked his ass off to get to where he is today, wherever that might be. I would have to ask if he’s ever experienced anything like the descriptions in the WaPo article.

I typically do not have the patience for a 20 minute video. But here I am, twenty minutes of watching…

Some good news when it comes to Lyme Disease:

A new vaccine on the way should be effective against the six types of Borrelia that cause most Lyme disease in the US and Europe. “We are developing these vaccines for people living in the northern hemisphere on both sides of the Atlantic,” says Thomas Lingelbach, president of the French biotech company Valneva, which is running human trials of the vaccine. Depending on the type of bacteria, between 70 and 90 per cent of people in the trials develop antibodies, he says. The vaccine should be available in 2023. [NewScientist (6 June 2020)]

Given recent trends, this may be a very good thing:

Source: NewScientist

But I’m not sure of the relevance of this statement:

The trick won’t just be making sure that the vaccine works, though. It is also fighting anti-vaccine sentiment and building enough trust to get people to take it, says Lingelbach.

Lyme Disease is not transmitted directly human to human, but rather via the tick host. Unlike a vaccine for measles or the coronavirus, the menace of an unvaccinated human to human society is much lower; they are, in fact, mostly a menace to themselves. I’ve had the disease, and it’s not pleasant.

However, it’s not clear to me if my episode with the disease confers immunity, or if I’ll need a vaccination.

Zombie fires:

There is strong evidence that last summer’s unprecedented Arctic blazes appear to have smouldered through winter as “zombie fires” and reignited this month.

Intense blazes across the frozen north last year led to record carbon emissions that were on a par with those from Belgium, exacerbating the global warming that made the conditions for the fires possible in the first place.

Now as temperatures rise in the region and snow recedes, satellite analysis of last year’s burn sites and the fires erupting this month suggest many in Siberia may be zombie fires.

“We know they are real and quite rare. That’s why seeing so many potential spots in Siberia is interesting. The satellite images are astonishing, particularly the snowmelt immediately followed by the fires appearing,” says Thomas Smith at the London School of Economics. [“‘Zombie’ fires are burning the Arctic after smouldering under snow,” Adam Vaughan, NewScientist (23 May 2020, paywall)]

The NFL has seen the light finally? Is the unemployable former Super Bowl quarterback Colin Kaepernick finally  … employable?

We, the NFL, condemn racism and the systematic oppression of Black People. We, the NFL, admit we were wrong for not listening to NFL players earlier and encourage all to speak out and peacefully protest. We, the NFL, believe Black Lives Matter. #InspireChange pic.twitter.com/ENWQP8A0sv

— NFL (@NFL) June 5, 2020

This won’t make President Trump, Mr. Patriotism himself, all that happy, now will it? The NFL has just repudiated their implicit stand with Trump, and he’s not going to take it lying down. If he hasn’t spat some venom at them yet, he will soon enough.

It’s not been clear to me how the football fans have felt about the entire Kaepernick controversy. Was a majority just irritated super-patriots that’d rather not watch those who squatted when the anthem was sung? Could this cripple NFL finances as fans stay away?

But, on the other hand, many of the NFL’s star employees are black and in solidarity with the community that has been abused for so long. If they walked out, that would cause the NFL a lot of financial pain, once again. So there’s definitely a pincer movement; I’m hoping that it’s true, however, that this wasn’t a financial calculation by the people in charge of the NFL, but a moral decision forced by the clarity that the George Floyd murder and ensuing protests has brought about. They characterize it as a moral decision, but it’s a little hard to know for sure if you weren’t in the boardroom where this decision took place. I can only hope.

And then how does this affect the fans? This is a bit different, because I’m wondering if this will transform the attitudes of some fans. There will be the supporters of those who took a knee who will be pleased, of course, but what about those who were virulently against them? Will they ignore the situation? Call for a boycott?

Or maybe reconsider their position?

The NFL is one of the biggest sports machines in the United States and influences a lot of people a lot more than is probably really healthy. Managed properly, this announcement may be a big rock starting to roll downhill finally. It could even be a big, if subtle, piece of why President Trump doesn’t get reelected – or even resigns early.

But announcing the signing of Kaepernick will be necessary in order to confirm the NFL’s conversion to a morally defensible position.

Brain feeling limber? It’s been twisting into pretzels just for fun? Try this on for size.

This possible advance both amuses me and makes me wonder:

Generic fidget spinner.

A device inspired by fidget spinner toys can diagnose a urinary tract infection (UTI) in less than an hour, without the need for a laboratory or electricity.

The device takes advantage of the centrifugal force generated by spinning to push the urine sample through a membrane lining its interior. Any bacteria in the urine will be separated from the liquid and stick to the surface of the membrane. Adding a dye that stains bacterial cells orange will then reveal their presence within 45 minutes.

“It is easy to operate,” says Yoon-Kyoung Cho at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea. One or two spins is usually enough to get a diagnosis, she says. [NewScientist]

Can this be generalized to handle other pathogens? Perhaps a dye specific to certain classes of pathogens? Distributed test processing, as I think of it, might take significant pressure of medical test processing. We already do this with glucose monitoring strips: a prick of the finger and the test gear, miniaturized in a little box, soon has your number for you.

On the other hand, I have to wonder if this would have a negative or positive effect on the environment relative to more traditional test processing methods.

Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) of Washington, D.C., has put President Trump in a bind:

The lovely lupines are fading out … who says pictures only belong to the young?

Interpled:

: to go to trial with each other in order to determine a right on which the action of a third party depends [Merriam-Webster]

Noted in “Why Is NSO Group Asserting Sovereign Immunity in WhatsApp Litigation?” Erik Manukyan, Lawfare:

As NSO Group notes in its reply brief, Republic of Philippines v. Pimentel, a case where the Republic of the Philippines was interpled in order to resolve its claim to disputed assets, lends some support to such an argument. Under Pimentel precedent, NSO Group correctly recognizes that “a case may not proceed when a required-entity sovereign is not amenable to suit.”

The next President, whether it be Pence or Biden, will face a test involving symbolic elements of our Republic upon entering office. What is it? Here’s what’s gone wrong:

Alyssa Mastromonaco, a former top Obama White House aide who directed operations, decried what she called “an incredibly sad transformation” to the White House this past week.

“Laura Bush believed in opening the White House to the public,” Mastromonaco said. “Michelle Obama took that idea and expanded to the People’s House. She routinely would say, this was not ours; it belonged to the American people. And our job was to make sure there was not one child left in this country who didn’t believe they belonged there. Everyone is good enough to walk through those doors.” [WaPo]

If the defenses erected during the protests of the last ten days is not removed by the Trump Administration, it must be one of the earliest duties performed by the incoming President. Not only should the People’s House be available to the people, but it is good and right that there be a certain vulnerability.

People who live eternally in military gear do not make friends.

Stories are, arguably, the most powerful medium for learning ever invented. Stories are constructed from narratives, which contain facts and causal relationships between the facts. The causal relationships are one of the key factors in judging a story – are they believable, to what state do they lead for each character, that is the meat of a story. That’s what makes the audience believe.

Today, on the national stage, we’re plagued with narratives.

FAR RIGHT WING

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR):

Iconoclastic:

If you describe someone or their words or ideas as iconoclastic, you mean that they contradict established beliefs. [Collins English Dictionary]

Noted in “Scientist behind Sweden’s covid-19 strategy suggests it allowed too many deaths,” Michael Birnbaum, WaPo:

A gruff, self-confident scientist with a mop of graying hair and an ever-present paper coffee cup in his hand, Tegnell has become an object of fascination both inside Sweden and abroad with his iconoclastic approach to the crisis. He shot down other countries’ attempts to close down their societies as a needless overreaction. He was so dismissive of Italy’s approach that he twice drew a reprimand from the Italian ambassador in Stockholm. He reported to police that he and his family have received death threats by phone, email and on social media.

In all likelihood, Rep Steve King (R-IA) is making his last appearance in the pages of UMB today, as he lost his primary run for the GOP nomination to his position to represent Iowa’s 4th district on Tuesday:

State Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) unseated Rep. Steve King (R) in the Republican primary for Iowa’s 4th congressional district on June 2, 2020. Feenstra received 45.7% of the vote to King’s 36.0%. None of the three other candidates received more than 10% of the vote. Local and national media identified incumbent Steve King (R) and top fundraiser Randy Feenstra (R) as leading candidates. A May 2020 article in Politico described the primary as King’s “toughest race since he was elected to the House almost 20 years ago.” [Ballotpedia]

Rep King, who lost all of his committee assignments following some unfortunate remarks concerning race, was the master of the passive-aggressive defense, which consists of “Hey, why are you misinterpreting my remarks?!” It appears the 4th district GOP voters were either tired of those remarks, or his loss of influence in matters agricultural. He’s also fairly bitter, but I shall omit those remarks, as they play the victimhood card.

Feenstra is a doctrinaire Republican:

“I am truly humbled by the outpouring of support over the past 17 months that made tonight possible and I thank Congressman King for his decades of public service,” Feenstra said in a statement. “As we turn to the General Election, I will remain focused on my plans to deliver results for the families, farmers and communities of Iowa. But first, we must make sure this seat doesn’t land in the hands of Nancy Pelosi and her liberal allies in Congress. Tomorrow, we get back to work.”

Feenstra had won marquee endorsements and financial support from conservative groups in Washington, including the Chamber of Commerce and the National Right to Life Committee. He told voters he wanted a seat on the House Agriculture Committee — something King no longer has. And he boasted a much greater campaign war chest, reporting over $415,000 on hand at the end of March compared to fewer than $30,000 for King.

“The 4th District needs a seat at the table — an effective conservative voice,” Feenstra said in a recent debate. “Our district, our President, deserve an effective conservative leader in Congress.” [CNN]

While the invocation of the opposing Party’s speaker as a boogieman is fairly traditional in political hoo-rah, support from conservative organizations and his support for the President mark Feenstra as another far-right Republican. Given that the primary included five candidates, and none of the other three broke 10%, it’s quite likely the fourth district remains a bastion of far-right Republicans, and in November will remain in Republican hands.

All together now…

From The Hill:

Former officials from the George W. Bush administration have formed a super PAC to support former Vice President Joe Biden’s White House campaign.

The super PAC, dubbed 43 Alumni For Biden, referring to the 43rd president, was formed Monday, according to a Tuesday filing with the Federal Election Commission.

The Republican Party knew it was in trouble way back in 2015, when Donald J. Trump survived early primaries and began gathering delegates. It’s noteworthy that he didn’t win many of them – he came in third in Minnesota – but his aggregation of delegates and refusal to quit ultimately won him the nomination.

Now we’re finally seeing some action, better late than never, from the old guard of Republicans, men and women who still believe a liberal democracy is the best form of government, a sentiment I doubt could be honestly espoused by President Trump. The question, of course, is how much respect do they still have from current Republican members, and how much influence will they yield? Bush II was certainly a failed Administration, punctuated on each end by the 9/11 Tragedy and the Great Recession – but they are still Republicans.

And if more high-level Republicans join?

This should be a signal to the Trump cultists that they’ve made a serious mistake and it’s time to rethink what they’ve done. Unfortunately, so far Fox News hasn’t come to understand that, so this is just another step along the way, and not the end for Trump. He’ll just bullshit them as ‘losers’ and move on, with the cult trailing along behind.

A few weeks ago I commented on how world-wide pity might help rid the United States of destructive attitudes in a way that condemnation – shame – would not. Now former Republican Max Boot has written a piece in WaPo that reinforces the point: