Category Archives: Uncategorized

Scarper:

to leave very quickly, often to avoid getting into trouble:
The police are coming! We’d better scarper. [Cambridge Dictionary]

Ah. I’d seen the word before, but never acquired the precise definition. I wonder as to etymology. Noted in “August 8, 2024,” Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American:

The plumbers burglarized the office of Ellsberg’s psychiatrist in California, hoping to find something to discredit him, then moved on to bigger targets. Together with the Committee to Re-elect the President (fittingly dubbed CREEP as its activities became known), they planted fake letters in newspapers declaring support for Nixon and hatred for his opponents, spied on Democrats, and hired vendors for Democratic rallies and then scarpered on the bills. Finally, they set out to wiretap the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Democratic National Committee, in the fashionable Watergate office complex.

CREEP member Roger Stone memorably described himself, in connection with this work, as a ratfucker.

People will do anything to move up the prestige ladder. Skeptic Benjamin Radford catches Tik Tok influencers in the act:

Bogus health fads come fast and furious, and one of the latest is something called “oil pulling,” an ancient Indian practice in which people cleanse their mouths (and bodies) of toxins by swishing a vegetable oil (such as olive, coconut, or sunflower) in the mouth for twenty minutes and then spitting it out. Wildly popular TikTok videos extol the virtues of this allegedly ancient practice.

It’s ridiculously simple, and, it is claimed, amazingly effective. According to a blog for the Skeptoid podcast, “Oil pulling is said to treat chronic pain, insomnia, cavities, allergies, thrombosis, diabetes, asthma, bad breath, gingivitis, digestive issues, meningitis, low energy, heart disease, kidney disease, ‘toxic bodily waste,’ PMS, leukemia and even AIDS. Oil pulling, it would seem, is truly a life-changing medical miracle.”

If you catch yourself saying, Well, I saw this video on Tik Tok … with no attempts at confirmation from more respectable sources, perhaps you need to reconsider how you’re running your life. Maybe try independent thinking:

The fact that oil pulling has been used for thousand of years (if indeed it has) is asserted as proof of its efficacy but in fact means nothing. This is an example of a logical fallacy called the “appeal to tradition.” Just because a practice has endured for hundreds or thousands of years does not mean it is valid.

Given the widespread scourge of disease we endured until the science of medicine came along, an independent thinker might conclude that oil pulling is invalid. Of course, this, too, would be an invalid conclusion, since we lack any idea of the prevalence of general disease in a population lacking an oil pulling tradition.

Independent thinking is a lot harder than it looks.

But relying on Tik Tok for your knowledge is simply another way to give people all your money.

Meanwhile, keep in mind that influencers get prestige and money from being influencers. What have they really done to earn such a position?

A bumbler working over the echinacea. I think.

Yeah, I can see this popping up on a card in a future edition of Trivial Pursuit under Who Said This?

These are the ravings of a madman. We are here now everyone. Trump is gone. It's a serious matter and we cannot look away anymore.

After his disastrous week last week, where he repeatedly embarrassed himself, his campaign has taken him off the trail. His campaign knows. pic.twitter.com/kK88A8DfcZ

— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) August 6, 2024

“What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kambla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE. He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!!” — Donald J. Trump

Wow. Why does anyone even associate with him anymore? Oh, yeah, that’s right.

Bricolage:

Bricolage is a term that originated from the French word “bricoler,” which means to tinker or to make do with whatever materials are at hand. It refers to the practice of creating something new by using a diverse range of materials or objects that may not typically be associated with each other. Bricolage is often characterized by its use of found objects, recycled materials, and unconventional techniques.

Bricolage is a form of artistic expression that emphasizes creativity, resourcefulness, and improvisation. It allows artists to break free from traditional constraints and explore new possibilities by combining disparate elements in unexpected ways. Bricolage is often associated with the concept of bricolage, which is the idea that meaning is constructed through the interaction of different elements. [Learn Everything About Art & Art History]

Noted in “Borderlands review — how can Cate Blanchett be so flailingly inept?” Kevin Maher, The Times:

This film, instead, is lazy bricolage, cobbled together by so-called creatives who appear not to care and by some who should clearly know better.

Steve Benen’s ongoing puzzlement over Trump voters proceeds:

As we discussed last year, members of a White House cabinet have a unique perspective on an American presidency. After a president chooses them for their powerful positions, these cabinet officials routinely work closely with the person behind the desk in the Oval Office, learning first-hand how a president thinks, works, prioritizes, processes information, and leads.

I’ve long wondered what might persuade voters inclined to support Trump to change their minds. Who, if anyone, will they listen to?

Clearly, these voters will not be persuaded by pundits. Or lawmakers. Or historians. Or prosecutors. Or committee reports. Or special counsel investigations.

But perhaps they’ll consider listening to those who worked closely with Trump, and who are now keeping their distance as he tries to regain power.

No, just about none of them will pay attention.

The bulk consider themselves to be at the bottom of the social ladder, lacking in influence and respect due to atavistic^[1] views on social issues, with other influences being rejection of rapid changes and other inclinations which causes them to lose social status. Mr Trump represents an alternative social matrix, one that is nation-wide, into which they fit both more comfortably and have more relative influence because their views of subjects mesh far better with this group. The fact that Mr. Trump has the resources of a national party, from which he has ejected, or at least suppressed, members who disagree with his views, view him as incompetent, and are concerned about his dementia, adds to his allure. That he might win the Presidential run closes the deal, because such a victory would validate their views and elevate the social standing of his followers – if only in their own minds.

The continuing blunders of the left when it comes to proper management of transgender issues certainly helps to stabilize the Trump movement, discouraging members from leaving due to the discomfort of being excluded from an issue into which they had the right to have input, as well as the exceptionally difficult issue of the Gaza War. For some members, they stand to profit greatly from a Trump victory, primarily financially.

They’re already at the bottom of the heap, so why not take a chance on Trump? The alternative is a world which ranges from uncomfortable to blasphemous. Issues of competence and truth? Not all that important, since that path leads to negative results, in their view.

At this juncture, Trump’s voters are his base and independents who believe that both sides are equally corrupt and prefer Trump over Harris for any of a number of reasons. That means Harris must convince them that she is not as corrupt as Trump, and has far more reasonable views. That includes the Biden / Harris economic record, border record, and other positive results from the previous four years – and the Trump behavior over the last eight.

¹ At least within their social matrix. That I use the word atavistic implies no malice on their part, merely an inclination that is both old-fashioned and at odds with those in a social group which they generally must interact.

I must confess I’m sort of waiting to see if Erickson can, indeed, put his trust in a God that may not have a lot of sympathy for him, or if the pressure will just cause his assorted limbs to pop off and bounce around the room like balloons. Remember, Erickson, from evidence on the ground, has been tasked with keeping the herd from running away from a Republican Party that seems to have gone mad, led by a pathological narcissist who appears to have either suffered unrevealed strokes, or has dementia.

And those very attributes are driving Erickson himself around the bend.

This is Donald Trump’s race to lose and there are times I wonder if he wants to. This weekend was one of those times. He spent more time attacking Brian Kemp and Georgia Republicans than he did Kamala Harris.

If Donald Trump loses in November and your first thought is that it was stolen, ask yourself why it was a good idea to re-nominate a man who had it stolen from him even while he was the sitting President in charge of the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security and FBI with Republican Governors in Arizona and Georgia. Now, in 2024, Joe Biden is in charge at the federal level, Democrats control Arizona, and Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger are still in charge in Georgia. Really, a genius plan.

Poor guy. He’s tied in knots over poor logic OR his faith, so he can’t switch parties or even drop out. But there’s a hidden hand grenade here:

The whispers are already there, folks. Some Republicans see this behavior and think the party would be better off with Trump losing and pushing out those tied to him because of the loss. It’s foolish thinking, but it is growing. People are tired of being bullied with all the demands for unity and loyalty flowing in one direction — that’s more bowel movement than political movement. And it’s not just Trump, but his diehard supporters who wear people out who are willing to vote for Trump, but don’t want to hump his leg.

The grenade is that the Republicans don’t really have anyone, anyone at all that exudes that gravitas suggesting they are both destined and worthy of the Oval Office. No one. Closest might be Kemp, who worked well under pressure during the 2020 election, refusing to be pushed into committing illegalities that might tarnish his reputation further, showed an admirable independence, and never collapsed. Other candidates such as Haley and DeSantis were inferior in this respect.

But I’m unconvinced that any of them would work well as President. They might exceed Trump, it’s true, as Trump mostly coasted on the momentum he received from President Obama, and when faced with difficult governing challenges he did poorly. But that is not equivalent to being an adequate President.

Therefore, when Erickson claims it’s foolish to keep Trump out of office, he’s very short-sighted. Do we really need to go through all of Trump’s debacles, from dropping taxes without adjustments to spending to a high likelihood that Trump kept all those papers at Mar-a-Lago for reasons having little to do with the government’s interests, and all about his.

And the odd thing is that Erickson just about agrees.

Part of his problem is that he surrounds himself with the trolls of social media who, like Laura Loomer, whisper crazy in his ears and he regurgitates it after it has festered in his brain. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Bill White chatted with Trump before his tirade. White, a New York transplant to Georgia and friend of Trump, had a falling out with the Republican leaders in Georgia over his plans to make the northern part of Atlanta its own City of Buckhead. White got so angry, he packed up and moved to Palm Beach (and joined Mar-a-Lago), but probably whispered his vinegar in Trump’s ears before the Atlanta rally. White blames Kemp and has kept an “enemies list” with Kemp at the top. Here is White’s statement attacking Kemp over the Atlanta rally and his anger that Kemp did not show up at the rally. Note, again, Kemp was not invited to the rally. Last night, White came after me on social media and attacked Kemp’s wife.

These are many of the people who are in charge of Republican affairs. They are the leadership. And it’s foolish not to put them in charge of the nation?

It’s screwed up thinking like this, along with the mistake of thinking propaganda is somehow truth …

And, today, between the markets, a looming recession, and a war spreading in the Middle East while we have a dementia addled patient in charge, Trump needs to remind people he can lead, not just complain about the past. Otherwise, the Democrats will cast Kamala Harris in the role of leader and work overtime to make her look calm as Trump, yet again, relitigates 2020.

… no, there’s no sign of recession, and markets, which had gotten ahead of themselves, as they so often do, are simply correcting. War? Could be. Would have come faster with Trump in charge. Biden keeps on being successful, and Erickson shamefully charges him with dementia. All without addressing Trump’s own addlepated behavior as disqualifying.

The madness is Trump’s. Biden’s just tired but wanted to finish the job. And then the idea that this was Trump’s race to lose … no. Republicans, over the last couple of decades or so, have suffered from chronic overconfidence. You’d think they would have learned from 2018, 2020, and 2022, but I suspect they haven’t.

Cathectic:

Of or pertaining to a connection that is charged with emotional energy. [YourDictionary.com]

Noted in “A Nobel Prize winner’s brilliant tirade against mortality,” Becca Rothfeld, WaPo:

[Elias] Canetti is a peculiar writer, difficult to categorize or even characterize. His sole novel, “Auto-da-Fé” (1935), is a nightmarish fable about a cathectic bibliophile. It is a brutal and disorienting book, reminiscent of the writings of Franz Kafka (whom Canetti admired) and Samuel Beckett (toward whom he was more ambivalent). But his most famous achievement, the monumental “Crowds and Power” (1960), is an idiosyncratic work of poetic anthropology unlike anything else in world literature. Canetti cites legends and rituals from an astonishing range of cultures as he seeks to demonstrate that crowds are the antidote to humanity’s primordial fear of touch. Many of his conclusions are dubious. Is it really true that crowds are equalizing forces that raze all hierarchy, or that they grow practically of their own accord, or that those who outlive others relish the victory over the dead implicit in their very survival? Yet the literal truth or falsity of the pronouncements in “Crowds and Power” is beside the point: Regardless of its plausibility, it has the stern and enthralling authority of a myth or a religious text. Canetti’s memoirs are something else again. In his sparkling recollections of a bygone Europe, he invented a lighter genre for himself.

Sounds rather fascinating.

It’s been a while since I checked in on Mauna Loa:

And not obviously better. What triggered me to think of this? This CNN/Weather report:

The flood threat for Florida will only diminish slightly Tuesday and remain quite concerning.

“Due to the likely hard hit nature of this area by Tuesday, even smaller amounts of rain are likely to result in outsized impacts,” the WPC [Weather Prediction Center] warned.

Flood threats could become even more dire for parts of Georgia and South Carolina on Wednesday once the area becomes very water-logged.

“By this point, the multi-day storm accumulation will likely be in the double digits with maxes in the 20 to 30 inch range near the Savannah metro and all along the Carolina Coastal Plain,” the WPC continued.

This is not an isolated event, either. Following three years of drought, northern Minnesota saw heavy flooding earlier this summer, which caused the Blue Earth River to effectively go around the Rapidan Dam. We have wildfires in California and Canada, a heat wave of memorable proportions on the East Coast, and we can certainly point at anthropomorphic climate change. Hurricane Beryl with more to come…

And a stubborn CO₂ density curve.

Our second visit to this year’s edition of the Minnesota Fringe Festival yielded these two shows:

• Juliet & Juliet: Improvised Shakespeare is a delightfully goofy improv show. The two leads take contributed themes and ideas and try, more or less successfully, to weave them into a mini-play set in Shakespeare’s time and language. Nothing serious here, but certainly fun.
• The Untold Myth of Medusa, The Musical; Part 1 retells the story of Medusa before she was saddled with that mess of snakes, coming up with the abuse of a brave woman. Painfully preachy in parts, badly sung in others, it appeared to me to be more of a graphic lesson of the dramatic disasters that occur when attempting to integrate the logic of humanity with the logic of the gods; or, a lesson in never interacting with the oversexed, under-challenged gods.

As uneven as a Fringe experience should be.

Reading Erick Erickson’s occasional missive on how “God has this, don’t worry,” and then to read the following ca sometimes jar one’s teeth in one’s head:

2024 began as a referendum between two deeply disliked men, one of whom is an incumbent with a bad economy and his predecessor who had a great economy until a global pandemic undid it. 2024 is ending with everyone remembering they hate Trump and not knowing who Kamala Harris is. Trump can still win it, but he seems intent on reminding people they do not like him while ignoring Harris’s record. His latest comment won’t cost him the election. They will just keep him from gaining ground and rebuilding momentum less than 100 days before the election.

It’s a stampede of six-legged horses, isn’t it?

• Polls show Biden is not disliked, but instead old enough that people began to worry that he couldn’t do the job. It’s an illustration of the tragedy of growing old.
• OK, he may have Trump right as being disliked, but the MAGA base might argue it. Or they might not.
• The fantasy that we exist in a bad economy that, until this last month, had a record setting low unemployment rate continues; meanwhile, third party evaluators see the United States as having a world-leading economy.
• Trump didn’t rescue the economy from disaster in 2017, but rather rode a roaring economy, inherited from Obama, while boasting he’d created it. Obama, cleaning up after the Republicans as usual, gave him a lovely gift.
• Erickson skips the question of Federal debt, which jumped under Trump and his 2017 “tax reforms”:

  What’s that you say, Biden’s debt went up, too? Yes, that’s right! Cleaning up after the Republicans’ clownish behavior, aka Gingrich’s Don’t let them have a victory!, of the previous four years is an expensive business, not in the least helped with “holding the line on taxes.”

• Trump can still win it, really? We’re not talking about a judicious, mature man. We’re talking about a demented narcissist, with acting skills, intent on preparing himself for becoming God’s favorite. while grooving on the adoration of crowds who mistake his actions as that of a successful businessman … which he isn’t. Meanwhile, the general electorate becomes more and more uneasy about him, the disaffected young voters have become fascinated with Harris, the VP selection process of the Democrats heightens the anticipation, while the Republicans have lost that focus, and Republican donors are supposedly yammering for a do-over on the pick, Senator J. D. Vance, whose views on various issues appear to be calibrated for winning nominations from the weirdo-right, not independents.
• And, finally, Trump has assumed the mantle of yesterday. He talks about migrants taking Black jobs, not understanding the segregational aspect’s assumptions are outdated and racist. He still whines about his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, still trying to convince anyone that Biden cheated. He projects his own inclinations on Harris, such as outright cheating and stopping at nothing – see Jan 6, 2021 – to win, rather than letting voters decide who’s better. He lacks a fundamental understanding of why things work the way they work. There’s a reason why his mentor, Roy Cohn, is despised rather than worshiped, and it has nothing to do with Cohn’s supposed sexuality. Some Americans believe Trump is the right way to go, and some of that is due to blunders by the Left.Meanwhile, Harris has sought, and perhaps successfully assumed, the mantle of a bright future. From the economy to justice, she represents what appears to be a way forward that seems, especially to the younger voters who, despite their inexperience, think they see the injustices of today mirrored in the eyes of Mr. Trump and his supporters. There is something to be said for the judgement of those lacking investments in the current societal order.

I do feel sorry for Erickson, because his own misjudgment towards abortion makes the idea of compromise, of even switching sides, completely repugnant. Does he fail to see the utter lack of virtue in Mr Trump and his allies? I would certainly hope so.

But he doesn’t seem to get it. Once in a while he expresses disgust, but that’s about it.

Is this Whack-A-Mole?

The Most Dangerous Game (1932) is a familiar story: nasty bit of work likes to hunt The most dangerous animal!, and that leads to a horrific conclusion …. for someone. In this version, a number of victims have been killed and then deprived of their skins by Zaroff, and when big-game hunter Bob Rainsford lugs himself onto Zaroff’s beach, he finds Zaroff, Eve Trowbridge and her brother, Martin the Alcoholic with the Annoying Voice.

So one loses their skin and another picks up the title Official Victim, but he’s slippery and daring.

But there’s little to really rouse our sympathies. Oh, it’s not like Al Capone is being hunted, but the good guys are really too good. Rather than the Victims becoming victims and maybe losing a few of them because of character traits, it’s really more of someone having the idea of the Big Hunt and forgot to develop it further.

But the dogs are really, really cool. And I enjoyed some of the cinematography more than I should have. So that was a nice positive.

I forgot to mention the Minnesota Fringe Festival started today. We saw two shows at Open Eye Theatre:

• Secrets Under the Christmas Tree: A Deedee Wallaby Mystery by Deft Pictures concerns machinations in a family, of smart strong women and their cloddish, needy husbands. I felt the script needed several rewrites, and more rehearsals, but my Arts Editor thought it clever and it made her laugh.
• 5 x 5 by Transatlantic Love Affair, a sellout, is a collection of five stories told tréteau style by a theatre company with an excellent representation, and even if this felt like it was slapped together at the last moment, it still connects to the audience early and often. We hadn’t seen them in a decade, and they are still excellent. Pay attention to the Fringe rules on sellouts and order your tickets to this one online to be sure you are allowed in.

A bridal dress show, punctuated by my Arts Editor’s exclamations of Oh, exquisite! and Western bridal dresses have nothing on this! She is a former master tailor who ran a bridal shop, so I pay attention.

The Internet and its spawn, the Web, are, in a sense, an irresistible honeypot^[1]. While we fall down “rabbit holes,” numerous firms are collecting out information: credit cards, addresses, purchase information, all used to build personal profiles to sell to those wishing to target you for goals licit and illicit, legal profit to theft.

WaPo’s Michelle Singletary demonstrates general consumer ignorance on the matter:

Whenever possible, push back when companies ask for information they don’t actually need.

Once, as I was picking up some furniture, the clerk wanted to take my driver’s license and scan a copy into the retailer’s computer system.

“No, sir,” I said.

He insisted the information was needed to keep a record of the items that were picked up by customers. Nonsense. I had a receipt. But I was okay with him verifying my identity by eyeballing my license.

There was a long line of customers behind me, visibly annoyed — blowing their breath, rolling their eyes. I told the employee, loudly enough for them to hear, that the store’s policy was unnecessary and that it could expose me to identity theft should their system be hacked. Every piece of information that is compromised helps criminals improve their tactics in targeting victims.

And we see the hacking every day, with notices from vendors announcing the access of information describing you with mind-numbing regularity. Sometimes we receive mail from vendors we’ve never heard of announcing a victorious hack of them, and now our credit card information is floating about in the dark version of the Internet, available for a small fee, and because it’s digital, it can be copied and sold an infinite number of times. The lower prices made possible by the indiscriminate copying entices more and more criminals, like a hive of vicious wasps presented with a ham sandwich.

So where is this going to end? Are there penalties for the security-deficient firms, legal or market, that motivates improved security behavior? Is the problem too difficult to solve?

Or, someday, will we see firms begin to flee the Internet? Will we see a great rush among the non-Amazons to announce that they no longer use the Internet for customer-facing applications, for their financial facets, for even supplier interactions?

Will there ever be a first? Or will the lure of bigger profits continue to keep every firm in line?

¹ Honeypot is a cybersecurity term for one or more systems on the Internet that appear to be loaded with valuable information. They distract a criminal (let’s not glorify them with “cybercriminal”, they’re simply destructive parasites) with faux-information while those hosting the honeypot collect information from the criminal.

I’d draw a person, labeled American Electorate, and a huge mosquito, hovering neck-high, proboscis plunged into the neck, labeled Project 2025.

Maybe it’s too obvious, though.

Lately the pundits have been upset over Mr Trump’s remark at a recent rally, as provided by Professor Richardson:

On Friday, speaking to Christians at the Turning Point Action Believers’ Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump begged the members of the audience to “vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what: it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine…. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”

The comment drew a lot of attention, and on Monday, Fox News Channel personality Laura Ingraham gave him a chance to walk the statement back. Instead, he said: “I said, vote for me, you’re not going to have to do it ever again. It’s true.” “Don’t worry about the future. You have to vote on November 5. After that, you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care, because we’re going to fix it. The country will be fixed and we won’t even need your vote anymore, because frankly we will have such love, if you don’t want to vote anymore, that’s OK.”

Reality?

You can approach this as many intellectuals might, employing close reading to discern Mr Trump’s meaning. By doing so, I came to the conclusion that he probably means all the problems that bother the Christian Nationalists will be fixed in four years. The bureaucracy will be gutted, military stripped of non-Christian Nationalist leadership, EPA shrunk or eliminated, etc.

But, of course, that strips context. What context? Mr Trump’s mendacity is legendary at this juncture, to such an extent that his being even close in the Presidential race is a real black eye for America.

So don’t use close reading when evaluating Mr. Trump. I’m sure some intellectuals feel close reading is their strength, but, like reading for QAnon clues about the future, just don’t. It’ll lead you astray and waste your time.

Dicta:

Plural of dictum:

1. : a noteworthy statement: such as
   1. : a formal pronouncement of a principle, proposition, or opinion
      awaiting the king’s dictum
   2. : an observation intended or regarded as authoritative
      must follow the dictum “First, do no harm”
2. law : a judge’s expression of opinion on a point other than the precise issue involved in determining a case [Merriam-Webster]

Noted in “How Samuel Alito got canceled from the Supreme Court social media majority,” Joan Biskupic, CNN/Politics:

Plainly irked by the turn of events, Alito wrote in his final concurring opinion that Kagan’s First Amendment pronouncements amounted only to “nonbinding dicta” that lower courts need not follow.

Such lines between core principles of a decision, or mere dicta, are often fuzzy and the source of disagreement among lower court judges – and even the justices themselves. But, despite Alito’s protest, Kagan had a majority signing her decision, which, at minimum, offers lower court judges a strong indication of the framework the high court majority would use in future online challenges.

The decision is interesting to me because I faced similar issues, albeit and thankfully not in Court, from time to time in the 1980s. One fellow seemed to want me to guarantee his copyright on the poetry he was putting up on my BBS, which I refused. More of a Wild West time.

The cycle continues.

It’s raining polls, or at least it was, but hardhats are optional.

Compaction

The pollsters, possibly motivated by the withdrawal of President Biden and his endorsement of Vice President Harris to replace him on the ballot for next term – it’s not final yet, or, if you’re a Republican, a fait accompli, in its pejorative, yet slightly admiring sense – are heavily polling the battleground states, presumably to see how Harris’ move upwards is affecting voter inclinations for both the Presidential election and the downballot results.

In order to save both time and my hands, which is not a joke after being a touch typist for 45 years, I’ll be skipping the conversational part of reporting numbers, only turning to chatty convo for any analysis I add. The actual number format will be obvious.

Timing

But not Olympic timing. Most of these polls are since President Biden dropped out in favor of Vice President Harris and so constitute some of the earliest measures of Harris’ impact on Senate races.

What Am I To Make Of Fox News Polls?

Fox News is sponsoring polls by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, which has a very respectable 2.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.

For those readers who stay in the comfortable bubble of Fox News, I will connect you with everyone else by saying that Fox News, despite its leading audience size, does not have any respect of those with knowledge of the news. They are known to tilt the news for Mr. Trump’s benefit, by such means as not correcting his misstatements, altered pictures, and with opinion shows that attack political adversaries of Mr Trump’s with false information. Doubt it? Agreeing to a $787.5 million settlement in the case of Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News Network is absolute proof of their guilt and complicity. If you want the true measure of Fox News, and not some flustered But our audience, Our revenues!, ask for their count of Pulitzer Prizes. That’s the true measure of excellence in the journalism sector.

That said, polling results issued by Fox News Polls have won praise from third parties and liberals in the past, while conservatives probably grumble. That a known partisan organization issues accurate polling results is a point for them – and makes them an important component of any attempt to analyze aggregate polling results. And they use somewhat larger sample sizes (people interviewed) than do most other pollsters, which may explain their historical accuracy. Remember all this when noting results from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, below.

Enough Chitchat, Eh?

• In Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) continues to lead challenger David McCormick (R-PA?) in all polls: North Star Opinion Research (1.2, right-leaning) 49%-41%, Emerson College (2.9) 48%-44%, The Bullfinch Group (unknown) 53%-42%, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) 46%-39%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 55%-42%. McCormick’s chances, in view of that last poll sponsored by Fox News, are looking dim, but there’s still 100 days, three months, left.
• In Arizona prospective Senate nominees Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the Emerson College (2.9) poll 46%-42%. Primaries are July 30, next Tuesday, and I’ll be greatly interested in whether or not Arizona Republicans select Lake or someone else. If it’s Lake or someone off to her right, independents may be more likely to vote for Gallego in November, and the impression I’ve picked up from reports on Lake, former Republican Chair Kelli Ward, and other Arizona Republicans is that they have gone off the cliff. But Lake was reportedly booed at a convention a ways back, a reaction congruent with many positions. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be instructive.
• In Wisconsin Senator Baldwin  (D-WI) leads prospective GOP nominee Eric Hovde (R-WI?) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 49%-43%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 54%-43%, While Wisconsin primaries are August 13, Baldwin does not face a primary challenger, yet. In the Republican primary, wealthy businessman Hovde is facing Rejani Raveendran, a 40 year old immigrant from India who is a single mother of three, a former nurse, and currently a student pursuing a degree in political science – kudos for doing the right thing! – and Charles Barman, who appears to be a chronic candidate. Hovde, in the absence of primary polling, seems to have the most reasonable expectation of winning the primary. But the Fox News Poll result of Baldwin holding a lead in the 50% range makes the Wisconsin race seem close to finished. As the Emerson College result is not far off from the Fox News result, it may be time to take Wisconsin off the list of hot races.
• In Michigan prospective Senate nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep Mike Roger (R-MI) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 45%-41%, Glengariff Group (1.5) 46%-41%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 51%-46%, Primaries are Aug 6. The Fox News Poll showing Slotkin advancing into the 50% range against GOP favorite Rogers does not yet suggest the race is over to me, as I’d like to see confirming polls, not to mention the primary, but it does suggest a mountain to climb for Rogers that is much steeper than Slotkin’s. This could all become irrelevant, though, on the day after the primary if either one, both facing opposition in said primaries, loses.
• Missouri Democrats worry about putting candidates through a primary in a limited resource environment, but I think it’s the right thing to do so long as it’s fairly run and transparent. The benefits of sharpening messages and introducing one’s self to voters are simply too important. We’re not talking about a prize at the finish line, but the selection of someone who will make serious governance decisions as well as replace a self-proclaimed Christian Nationalist in the person of prospective GOP nominee Senator Hawley (R-MO). Missouri primaries are August 10.
• In Nevada Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) in the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (1.8), 45%-40%.
• Florida has been absent polling numbers for a while, but the announcement of President Biden’s decision to remove himself from the Presidential race and his endorsement of Vice President Harris has excited younger Florida voters, according to Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). From the same source, Scott is trying to keep the focus on the Gaza conflict, which is a difficult issue. A bit of polling would be interesting.

Summary

Even though it’s early days, some races that were thought to be tight are beginning to look like they are cool or cold. I’d put in that category Pennsylvania (Casey vs McCormick) and Wisconsin (Baldwin vs Hovde). Michigan (Slotkin vs Rogers), an open seat, remains hot, as does Texas (Cruz vs Allred), Montana (Tester vs Sheehy), and Nevada (Rosen vs Brown). Florida may also be hot. West Virginia remains on the cold list as a GOP flip until polling suggests otherwise, and I don’t expect to see that.

Where would I like to see more polls? Ideally, everywhere, but that takes unavailable resources. Since I have the impression that most Democratic incumbents are solid, I’d prioritize all open seats, then all Republican seats, then all Democratic seats. Just because Dobbs is such a huge disruption that even States in which Republicans dominate will be vulnerable to angry women voters.

Tomorrow has Arizona primaries.

Naptime, his favorite time of the day.

Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) is definitely a movie for cult member and the in-crowd. Jokes involving Deadpool’s past, the studios making this movie, even studio heads fly thick and fast. Not to mention jokes concerning  Wolverine and the multiverse.

Which is all very silly and, for those of us not knowledgeable fans, rather incomprehensible.

Still, there are charming bits, including aspirations to make the violence charming. Not quite there.

So don’t see this unless you’re a fan, curious, or like dogs.

Did I say dogs? Forget I said dogs.

And don’t drop a lot of moolah on this one.

Virome:

The human body hosts vast microbial communities, termed the microbiome. Less well known is the fact that the human body also hosts vast numbers of different viruses, collectively termed the ‘virome’. Viruses are believed to be the most abundant and diverse biological entities on our planet, with an estimated 10³¹ particles on Earth. The human virome is similarly vast and complex, consisting of approximately 10¹³ particles per human individual, with great heterogeneity. [“The human virome: assembly, composition and host interactions,” Guanxiang Liang & Frederic D. Bushman, nature reviews/microbiology]

Noted in “The vital viruses that shape your microbiome and your health,” Linda Geddes, NewScientist (13 July 2024, paywall):

“What is interesting about bacteriophages and other viruses in the gut is that every person has their own unique set, with almost no overlap between different people,” says Evelien Adriaenssens at the Quadram Institute in Norwich, UK. One of her interests is understanding where these viruses come from, which she is investigating by analysing stool samples from women and their newborn infants and following them over time. “What we see is that healthy infants are born without a noticeable virome, then, in the first couple of weeks of life, they acquire one, together with the bacteria and all of the other components of the microbiome,” says Adriaenssens.

Fascinating stuff.

An academic effort to track the dissemination of misinformation in such domains as politics and medicine is stumbling, due, I suspect, to the Internet:

From time to time there are reports that the Houthi of Yemen have shot missiles at another ship, and I wonder what they hope to accomplish. Maybe this is it?

Revenue registered by the Suez Canal for fiscal year 2023/24 fell by more than $2 billion, as attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to disrupt global trade and cause rerouting.

Yemen’s Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea region since November 2023, calling the strikes a direct response to Israeli military operations in Gaza after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. [AL-Monitor]

Do the Houthi consider Egypt friend or foe? And I had no idea that they were having that sort of impact on Canal revenue.