Category Archives: Uncategorized

We assumed this was a fashion show, but now we think it was closer to being an art installation. Enjoy!

REPUBLICANS SHOULD HAVE A CASE OF NERVES

Because the generic CNN Congressional poll gives the Democrats an 8 point lead.

Because their Party has quite a few dubious characters, such as Representatives Edwards and Miller, and there’s more than just them. Think Gaetz, Bondi, and others.

And Trump doesn’t have a magic wand.

THAT TIME AT THE BALLPARK WHEN A SINGLE HOME RUN WAS HIT AND …

… no other score. Yep, happened to me on a date. Haven’t gone to a ballgame since. Oh, and here’s the news:

• Third time … leaves me feeling a bit weirded out. But, yes, it’s happened.
  

  The Democratic Senate nominee in South Dakota ended his campaign Tuesday following calls from party activists to exit the race and leave independent Brian Bengs as the main competitor against Republican Sen. Mike Rounds.

  Julian Beaudion, a former state trooper, cited “extraordinary personal challenges,” including a house fire, financial struggles and “intimidating threats to drop out of this race,” as reasons for his decision.

  He said in a statement posted to social media that he has no plans to endorse either Bengs or Rounds. [Roll Call]

  First, let me state that I’m appalled that intimidating threats are occurring; we need to track down and imprison the perpetrators. Scaring folks out of the political process is not to be tolerated.

  Second, and for new readers who’ve not paid attention to political activity for the upcoming Senate elections, this is the third instance of a Democratic nominee dropping out of a three way Senate race. The two prior States have been Nebraska and Idaho; in Montana there’s a three way contest, but the Democratic nominee, Rep Alani Bankhead, protests that former UMontana president Seth Bodnar (I) has discriminated against women, and she’ll never drop in his favor, so a fourth will have to come from elsewhere.

• The Kansas City Star of Kansas has endorsed Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) in the Democratic primary; he has ten competitors. Hamilton can add that endorsement to that of former Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

  The presumptive Republican nominee is the incumbent, Senator Roger Marshall (R).

  [A day later] And now we have primary results from 4 August. Senator Marshall won the Republican primary with roughly 80% of the vote. His opponent was Pond Naramore, who appears to be a moderate Republican, although I don’t have an On The Issues summation for him. That an unknown such as Naramore attracted 20% of the vote against a powerful incumbent says something, but nothing too significant, I suspect.

  In the Democratic primary the victor is Pastor Adam Hamilton in a badly fragmented vote; his percentage of the Democratic primary vote was only 34.9%. The remainder of the vote was spread among his ten competitors, with second place going to Christy Davis with 14.1% of the vote.

  I’d ask if the Democratic side of the slate can pull together, or if there is resentfulness of the late-comer Pastor, but here’s the important numbers: Senator Marshall outpolled the entirety of the Democratic primary field, and substantially. While using raw primary numbers for analysis of an upcoming general election is often highly misleading, right at the moment Marshall seems to be in a commanding position, despite his association with President Trump.

  Yet, professional forecasters have added a degree of uncertainty to their forecasts, according to the Kansas Reflector, moving from solid ‘R’ to likely ‘R’.

• According to Ballotpedia as of this writing, South Carolina’s special primary election to replace the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R) on the general election ballot still has five candidates, including Senator Darline Graham (R), who is his sister, and the notorious Mark Sanford, former governor of South Carolina, as well as former Representative of South Carolina’s 1st district.

  KTBS reports two polls were released last week:

  Graham led the poll from the Trafalgar Group released Friday with 27%. Norman and U.S. Rep. Russell Fry each snagged 17%.

  Norman led the poll from the Emerson College Polling Center released Thursday with 22%. Graham was next at 19%.

  The same report has the Republican count at nine, not five, but I think that’s a mistake. The special primary is scheduled for 11 August.

• In a rare Alabama Senate poll, by a pollster of whom I’ve not heard, named yes. every kid. foundation., Rep Barry Moore (R) leads Everett Wess (D), 47% – 32%. (If you like details, follow the link and then click on the second View Fullscreen big blue button.)

  Analysis of this poll is foolhardy, as I don’t know quality of the pollster, but I cannot help but note that a 15 point Republican lead is a far cry from the last Senate race in Alabama. In 2022, now-Senator Katie Britt (R) defeated Will Boyd (D) by 36 points. Has Alabama shifted twenty points towards the center?

  Or is Wess a more appealing candidate? Or even Moore a less appealing candidate?

  Pun intended.

• Texas Southern University, in the same range as other polls from academic institutions in Texas, gives James Talarico (D) a 47% – 45% lead over Ken Paxton (R), with a margin of error of ±2.83 points, so realistically it’s a tie. Talarico has a roughly 18 point lead in the net viewed favorably part of the poll, which makes me wonder how easily Paxton might attract more votes compared to his rival.

  The Texas Pulse Poll (Texas A&M) has a similar result of a four point lead, 47% – 43%, as does 254 Labs/YouGov, 48%-45%.

  Old-time blogger Paul Waldman has an observation on the race:

  Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, after ousting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, is in a tight race with state Sen. James Talarico. At first, Paxton and his allies focused on defining his opponent as “low-T Talarico” — a radical left-wing ideologue bent on sapping the testosterone from manly Texas men. But last week Paxton changed tunes, introducing an economic plan with new and expanded tax breaks for things like health care, child care and housing. The accompanying ad sounds the same notes you’ll hear from most of the Democrats running for office in this election. “Washington is making it harder than ever to get ahead,” he says in the ad. “And the American Dream is slipping away as the cost of everything from housing to health care rises.”

  Wait — doesn’t Trump say we’re living in a “golden age” of boundless prosperity? [MS NOW]

  Will Trump take this betrayal by a candidate he’s endorsed lying down? In view of today’s job report, might he have to?

  It also occurs to me that, if Ken Paxton does win, how long will it take for him to start agitating for Senatorial immunity for crimes committed in office?

• 

  On The Issues: Senator Mark Warner (D).

  In Virginia the 4 August primary yielded Senator Warner (D), unopposed in the primary, as the Democratic nominee, and Bert Mizusawa (R) as the Republican nominee. Mizusawa is a retired US Army major general and has relevant degrees and work experience, according to Ballotpedia. His victory was with 51.5% of the vote, so the Republicans seem fragmented. I heard nothing of substance concerning this primary; the last Republican Senator from Virginia was George Allen, serving 2001-2007, so it’s not impossible that Warner could lose.

• The Iowa Senate race is tight, with an Emerson College poll giving Rep Hinson (R) a 47.5% – 45% lead over Josh Turek (D). I found the name recognition portion of the poll interesting, as nearly 10% of respondents had not heard of Mr Turek, while only 4% had not heard of Rep Hinson. It suggests there may be some room for Turek to pick up some undecided’s votes.

  A recemt Fox News poll had given Turek a four point lead.

• On 6 Aug the Tennessee primary elections determined the incumbent, Senator Haggerty (R), will compete with challenger Marquita Bradshaw (D), who won with 54.7% of the Democratic vote. She’s an environmental activist who has not held political office, despite running in the 2020 and 2024 Senate races. She won the primary in 2020, upsetting the favorite.

  Despite being unopposed, the Senator outpolled the entire Democratic field of five hopefuls by nearly double, 623,538 to 333,605. Bradshaw has quite a cliff to climb, and there may not be enough Tennessee independent voters hauling on that rope to get her to the top.

• KSTP/SurveyUSA have a new poll out for Minnesota showing Rep Craig (D) leading Lt Governor Flanagan (D) in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator Klobuchar’s (D) Senate seat by 2 points, 42% – 40%, and I can attest they continue to go at each other hammer and tongs in commercials. My personal favorite is that Rep Craig is a puppet of “crypto-pharma.”

  On the Republican side, Michelle Tafoya is even more dominant than the previous report claimed, leading 48% – 13% over Royce White.

• The North Carolina GOP nominee for the North Carolina Senate seat, Michael Whatley (R), has apparently been nominated for the Nevada governor’s seat as well by President Trump. Yeah, don’t ask me.
• Senator Ossoff (D) of Georgia has picked up some endorsements:
  

  In the span of three days, former Republican U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Valdosta Mayor Scott James Matheson and Tifton Mayor Julie Smith all announced they are backing Ossoff’s reelection campaign over Republican nominee U.S. Rep. Mike Collins. [CBS News]

  Not that I think he needs them.

• And in Michigan, the favorite of pundits everywhere, on 4 Aug Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (D) did beat Rep Haley Stevens (D) for the Democratic nomination for the to-be-open Senate seat in this State, 48.5% – 47.5. As it happens, Mallory McMorrow (D) also won 4% of the vote, so some may argue if she had withdrawn from the race officially, rather than unofficially, Stevens might have won. I think the more realistic conclusion is to admit it’s impossible to know who that 4% would have voted. McMorrow had indicated disdain for Party leader Schumer, so we might conclude El-Sayed would have received those votes, but the On The Issues summations of El-Sayed and Stevens are close to identical, although El-Sayed has a paucity of data behind it.

  Rep Stevens has immediately pivoted back to the campaign trail:

  “I want to congratulate Abdul El-Sayed on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. He is a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes Scholar, and a dedicated Michigander. I am proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election.

  Notably, most of the polls did not mirror these results. Emerson College’s last poll gave El-Sayed a 15 point lead, Tavern Research a 10 point lead, Mitchell Research a 14 point lead – you get the point. Will this unreliability carry over to the general election? There’s a conversation here at the Times, but it’s behind a paywall for which I have not paid for access.

BETTIN’ ON A NEW PARTY?

Honestly, as tempting as it may be, no, I’m not. Successfully founding and running a Party is a very difficult operation, and I don’t see that happening just because some independents are considered to be competitive.

That said, the Big Tents both parties claim to pursue are double-edged swords. OK, mixed metaphor. But my point is this: get enough special interest groups together and alignments of interests becomes difficult. Individuals find they have to be pro-choice, pro-transgender, this, that, the other thing, and some political folks can’t do it. Or, if they’re evangelical Christians then they must be pro-life and hate the ‘baby-killers,’ burn books deemed offensive, disbelieve climate change, and some more etcs.

Independents often discard these requirements, or mix selections to satisfy their moralities, their ambitions, their desires. If they happen to have a collection of such that matches the voters’, they may win. From this, the Parties may or may not adapt. While both Parties seem quite rigid today, tomorrow may bring a change because it’s better to adjust than become a political irrelevancy, which is a well-loathed fate by most politicos.

The simple fact that 3-4 independents look competitive suggests the post-season could be quite interesting, once some facts have been established beyond dispute. I look forward to that.

The Fringe starts tonight, folks, and while it’s come down a bit from its pre-pandemic heights, it can still be fun. We’ll be attending a few shows, constrained by our various surgeries and recoveries there from.

Contumacy:

1.  obstinate and wilful rebelliousness or resistance to authority; insubordination; disobedience
2.  the wilful refusal of a person to appear before a court or to comply with a court order [Collins Dictionary]

This seemed familiar, but I can’t find it on the blog, so I guess not. Noted in “Peter Navarro inches closer to Supreme Court in his Jan. 6 subpoena contempt appeal,” Jordan Rubin, MS NOW:

“Because President Trump did not, in fact, invoke executive privilege, neither the Select Committee’s subpoena nor the prosecution for Dr. Navarro’s contumacy in the face of that subpoena presents the separation-of-powers concerns of which Dr. Navarro complains,” the panel said last month in rejecting his appeal.

Too bad, kid. Best to wear your conviction with faux-pride.

Primary Day, in Missouri, is also Amendment Day, and the most important Amendment priority for Governor Kehoe (R) didn’t do well:

Missouri voters have rejected Amendment 5, declining to give lawmakers a blank check to raise or expand sales taxes, something some lawmakers sought to enable enormous income tax cuts for the state’s wealthiest households. By doing so, voters in the Show-Me State set a positive example for states around the country, turning away from what would have been one of the most damaging tax policy changes in any state in recent years.

Otherwise divided voters were united in rejecting redistributing taxes away from the wealthy, with just 17 percent of voters casting their ballots in favor. Despite a well-funded campaign and no signs of wholesale rejection of their elected leaders, Missourians across the state rejected their governor’s biggest priority. [ITEP]

A symptom of one of the toxic influences on Republican politics. If rich people want to reduce their relative tax burden, then raise corporate taxes. They’ll pass on their additional tax burden to their customers, because heaven forbid their investors take the hit, and it’ll be quite popular.

If the Republicans want to become unpopular, keep on trying to undertax the wealthy. It’s a bit like splashing one’s self with hot tar and then jumping in a lake. Splash splash.

I found this report on Secretary of Department of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin’s (R-OK) encounter with MAGA fascinating:

Yet [Mullin] apparently isn’t good enough for MAGA die-hards. They’re furious and calling for his ouster over comments he made Saturday at a National Governors Association meeting in which he drew a distinction between legal and illegal immigration, and also suggested immigration reform would be a good idea in the long term because it’s needed to help the economy grow. [Zeeshan Aleem, MS NOW]

What did he say?

Over the weekend, Mullin told the National Governors Association Summer Meeting that in order to grow the economy, there needs to be more employment visas for the farm and agriculture sector, which some Republicans have tried to change out of concern that those who use them will be taking Americans’ jobs.

“Because this narrative that it steals American jobs is true in some industries, it’s not true for all industries,” he said during a fireside chat moderated by NGA chair Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt. “We want to take care of Americans first. It’s our economy, it’s our homeland, but there’s a way to utilize labor where we’re not having the participation rate we need to, and we can plug those holes.” [ABC News]

I think that, to the dispassionate observer – sure, go look that up, I’ll wait – that’s actually the beginning of a nuanced conversation, even if it looks like maybe Mullin dropped a word here or there.

MAGA is given to neither being dispassionate or, in fact, analysis.

We could discuss this in the context of apparent MAGA precepts, or the impact of the loss of immigration on the economy, or several other contexts, but I find more interesting what the future behavior of MAGA might be. We need to remember that, like most human institutions, there’s a power structure involved, whether it’s your local club for collecting post-stamps, or the “Catholic Church hierarchy.”

In an organization centered around disputes with central societal assumptions, in this case tolerance of variations in such human attributes as skin color, immigrant, religion, and other such attributes, the important valuations center around purity, and rejection of anything that might imperil such purity, and so what I think we’re going to see is rejection of nuance, of compromise, and the very idea that MAGA can be wrong. Instead, much like the Republican Party, discussion within the group will center around who can go further into the extremes of ideology and, importantly, arrogance. These will be the valuations upon which judgments of social position will pivot, and the ambitious will strive to find more and more ‘pure’ positions.

In other words, look for MAGA positions to become more and more extreme, and MAGA attitudes to become more and more arrogant.

I don’t expect MAGA to grow appreciably; indeed, the drive towards purity may result in the ejection, voluntary and involuntary, of members. Some will not qualify for membership, and some will become disgusted, either by the perceived weakness of the organization or by the consequences of the group dynamics. Will there be a wall where no ideological warrior can move even further right?

But I had been ignoring MAGA as likely to dissolve – and I still expect them to dissolve. But they’ll be making a racket for while longer, it seems.

President Trump has not yet fired U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro over her doing the right thing with regards to the Reflecting Pool debacle, but he might as well have done so:

The pool’s problems had sparked tirades from Trump inside the White House, and the president soon grew angry for another reason: Pirro did not give the White House a heads-up about dropping the charges, a White House official said. The president spoke with her by phone Saturday to discuss the decision, a call first reported by CNN.

Trump publicly turned his ire on Pirro too, saying on social media he disagreed “100%” with her decision and again insisting that vandals were to blame. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum chimed in to agree that vandals “repeatedly” damaged the site, claiming the acts were caught on camera and insisting his agency had been forthcoming with Justice Department lawyers. [WaPo]

So he’s embarrassed her, criticizing her actions and her judgment. Will this diminish her admiration for someone who, frankly, is a failure at darn near anything he tries?

Or will she live up to her reputation of being no-nonsense, resign, and go out with return insults?

And how about Secretary Burgum? He claims to have evidence of vandalism on camera. If so, then Pirro’s office should be able to use same for prosecuting a case. Her failure to do so suggests Burgum’s either lying through his teeth in order to please Trump, or his understanding of what he has is deeply flawed. Neither is an admirable position.

And is this another step on the way to impeachment and conviction? It depends on how much more amateur hour bullshit Republican members of Congress can tolerate, and that’s a hard number to quantify.

For those readers maintaining an interest, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp went live with their Truth API on Saturday. How do I feel about this? Let’s start with the announcement:

“Markets already move on Truth Social posts,” Truth Media’s McGurn wrote at the time of the announcement. “Truth API delivers a direct, licensed, real-time feed of the platform’s most market-moving Truths while advancing our strategy to monetize proprietary assets through a high-margin, recurring revenue stream.” [CNBC]

Unfortunately, he’s probably right. Libertarians should be shivering in horror at this juncture, as this is clear evidence of government interfering in free markets. But is that the position of their customers, or are they too focused on making money and keeping their shareholders happy to actually think about the implications of this entire sordid mess?

Then there’s the true conservatives in this context – Senators Warren (D-MA) and Schiff (D-CA):

“This appears to be an outrageous abuse of the President’s office for his personal benefit that undermines everyday investors and the integrity of our markets, while enriching Wall Street and other wealthy insiders,” they wrote in a letter to SEC chair Paul Atkins dated Tuesday.

If you’re busy being outraged at the thought of those two Senators being conservative, keep it in context. They’re calling for government not to interfere in the private sphere, especially for personal gain. Plenty of liberals and conservatives have been caught with their hand in the cookie jars, to be sure, and mutter about that if you must. It’s corruption.

But it’s worth a bit of contemplation concerning corruption. Why is it so bad? Because corruption misdirects societal resources for critical services. Just as putting investor desires for return on investment first in the corporate world, corruption’s purpose of skimming resources, whether it’s product, information, or wealth, changes how resources are distributed – and reduces efficiency, sometimes drastically.

That’s why the concern over corruption, whether it’s Fat Leonard corrupting naval officers, or Donald Trump corrupting his own Administration. Misdirecting resources can result in chaos and disaster.

Well, I’m a bit far afield here, so I’ll stop and let your mind wander on the various subjects.

For science geeks, the Big Rip refers to a hypothesized future astrophysics phenomenon in which atoms themselves rip apart as the Universe expands.

But for my purposes, this news, a continuation of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool debacle and the arrest of David Hearn for vandalism of same, may be a big red flag:

The felony indictment that [former Fox News host and current District of Columbia U. S. Attorney Jeanine] Pirro’s office brought alleged that Hearn had caused more than $1,000 worth of damage to the Reflecting Pool. It was a facially absurd claim when it was made on July 2 in a Pirro press conference that was roundly mocked at the time.

Unsurprisingly, the indictment did not stick.

Less than a month later, Pirro and Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael P. Spence filed Friday’s motion to dismiss the indictment against Hearn. [Law Dork]

President Trump violently disagreed with Pirro’s activities, and you can find that at the Law Dork link.

When analyzing this incident, it’s important to keep in mind that US Attorney Pirro, when she was a Fox News host, was an avid Trump fan, even agreeing with his election-denial position, regardless of the lack of evidence; no doubt that and her former position as a judge led to her nomination by Trump, and her confirmation by the Senate, as US Attorney for D. C.

Now he’s shriekingly angry at her for withdrawing a false accusation^[1] and admitting the whole incident is a farce, all because it thrusts the fault for the embarrassing and expensive incident back on the President.

Chasing away your most ardent fans is not a path to success; this is how those he counts on for loyalty and protection suddenly find a reason to turn on their sugar daddy and melt him in a pot. This could be the precipitating incident for Trump loyalists in the Cabinet, in the House, and in the Senate to quietly consider how to remove him from office and from influence.

Nothing may happen. Heavens knows the loyalists have had to ignore fallacious economic theories, fallacious war theories, humiliating Cabinet meetings, and a petty, boastful, grasping President who makes decisions based on personal loyalties rather than objective merit; many of them no doubt revel in their elevated, and often unearned, social positions. Some may have used their positions for grifting.

But realizing the society in which they exist is being put through a cheese-grater will occur to some of them, and that the consequent loss of national prestige among the community of nations is damage to themselves. I’m guessing there’ll be a delay as folks organize, and one day Trump will be dumped out of the White House on his ass, and his Secret Service detachment either replaced with a smaller group or even, in extreme circumstances, withdrawn.

All ignited by this small incident.

¹ A not unknown phenomenon in Trump’s life, as those who remember the shameful Central Park 5 accusations are aware.

At least they served dinner.
You’re quite sure?
Well, not quite. Merely sure.
You fluster me, sir. Fluster me.
If you insist. The dinner was a dessert?
Not at all. Olives are not a dessert.
I say. With enough sugar, anything’s a dessert.
Ah, so much nonsense. Puns do not exist in this hotel, so prey do not employ them here. I have not the funds to pay them. Their teeth are sharp and their claws are borrowed from the snickety-snick!
The tax auditor was snatched up and eaten while inventing an adequate response to this breath-taking assertion. His scuba tank fell off when it happened, but the inspector missed the clue twelve hours later.

Mr. K (2024) is where you go if you need your fix of surrealism. Mr. K, a sleight-of-hand magician, has been invited to entertain at a hotel. His stay rapidly transforms into a trap as the hotel itself seeks to contain him, shunting him from kitchen to his room to another room to, well, perhaps that was Alice of Wonderland.

All the while the purposes of hotel and story remain obscure. That’s about all I can really say, as the story becomes more and more obtuse, and when an escape finally is presented, I can only wonder if it’s really an escape, or another trap.

Like I said, surrealism. If you like it, great, have at it, have fun. If you don’t, though, this may not be your cup of tea.

THE BAD NEWS TSUNAMI

Republicans are facing a wave of bad news, and it’s mostly their leader that has them in a pickle, with a fair seasoning of their own inability to say No! to their little child of a leader. I could cite Trump’s War and how it’s sucking in various players, or the threats to the nearby and critical Suez Canal, or we could move on to an economy that is so worrying the Federal Reserve that at their recent quarterly meeting, the leaders of the various Banks leaders didn’t even consider reducing interest rates, as demanded by President Trump, but held them steady while reporting some of the leaders recommended a rate increase. Or we could talk about his various distractions, such as redesigning Dulles Airport, or the Qatari-gifted airliner that needs upgrading, or the Medicare subsidy cancellation, … so many other problems.

But let’s go with a poll from highly respected Quinnipiac University:

Thirty-two percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 58 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.

Trump’s 32 percent approval is an all-time low approval rating for him in a Quinnipiac University poll.

This may be especially hurtful to the GOP Senators …

Twenty-nine percent of voters think Donald Trump is focused enough on addressing the problems most Americans are facing, while 68 percent think he is not focused enough on addressing the problems most Americans are facing.

By the time the November elections comes around, voters may be asking why the GOP caucus in Congress did not remove the President as soon as problems appeared. And vote accordingly.

HERE’S THAT CAVE WHERE YOU LEFT YOUR TOY MONSTERS

They said that was from last week and they don’t want them.

• Remember the recent action in Nebraska wherein Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank declared she couldn’t beat incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) and withdrew in favor of Dan Osborn (I)? It’s happening again in Idaho:
  

  The Democratic candidate who hoped to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Risch in Idaho announced Tuesday that he is dropping out of the race, leaving Independent Todd Achilles as the challenger to the longtime Republican.

  David Roth, who won the Democratic primary in May, said he was proud of his campaign and believes in what Democrats are fighting for across Idaho, but decided to shift his efforts to other areas.

  “I have concluded that I can make the greatest difference by focusing my time and energy on helping Democrats win up and down the ballot and in communities across Idaho,” he wrote in a statement. [Idaho Statesman]

  Mr Achilles doesn’t appear to be a slouch, according to Ballotpedia, with time in the US Army, various degrees in economics and international relations, time in corporate America, and a couple of years in the Idaho statehouse, albeit on appointment rather than winning an election.

  So does Mr Achilles have a chance? Some parts of the country are hungry to kick out old politicians, and Senator Risch (R) is 83. Public Policy Polling (PPP) thinks he could be ejected. Me? The information at PPP struck me as a trifle fantastical and speculative. Show me a poll from a highly-rated pollster.

• Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee for the Senate seat currently held by Maine Senator Collins (R-ME) is up for grabs:
  

  Jackson said Maine voters do not think the federal government is working for them and are looking for a change. “There’s an energy like I’ve never seen of people that are frustrated. They’re fed up,” he said.

  “We can have much better government than we have right now, and people in Maine are going to show up in November, and Susan Collins is in trouble,” he added. [MS NOW]

  But Mainers know Senator Collins. Certain of her votes in the Senate have certainly been unpopular, but the mark of a good politician is the ability to turn what looks unpopular into a badge of honor. In today’s polarized climate, however, that feat is more difficult to accomplish than in previous decades. And Maine is … the nation’s oldest state, according to Census.gov. That may work against Jackson.

• North Carolina’s getting a bit of love in this issue of Campaign Update as the national GOP tries to claw back the Senator Tillis (R) seat, which former Governor Cooper (D-NC) currently has in a headlock:
  

  The Senate’s top GOP super PAC is launching a $17 million summer ad campaign in North Carolina — its largest reservation anywhere in the country so far this cycle, underscoring the state’s importance to Republicans’ hopes of defending their Senate majority.

  The investment, shared first with POLITICO, is the first tranche of Senate Leadership Fund’s previously announced plan to spend $71 million in North Carolina this year. It comes as early public polling shows Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s popular former governor, with a lead over GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair. [POLITICO]

  $71 million seems excessive, as I continue to ignore Trump’s Inflation forcing prices up. But it seems Republicans think they can expose weaknesses in Cooper’s record. The problem with this assertion? The Republicans have spent much of the last few years being absolutely tone-deaf, which is also true of the Democrats. But Cooper has struck me as not so tone-deaf, having won two governor races in this Republican state.

  

  On The Issues: Gov Roy Cooper (D-NC).

  Meanwhile, highly respected Fox News Poll is giving Cooper a 53% – 44% lead over Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee for Tillis’ Senate seat. Of particular interest was that Cooper voters are mostly interested in voting for Cooper, but Whatley voters are 46% voting against Cooper. While that doesn’t directly address the enthusiasm question, it is suggestive of a Democratic advantage in that department. Add in that nearly half of participants were concerned Whatley is too close to the profoundly unpopular President, and Whatley will need to step away from Trump in order to make a move on Cooper.

• Another clutch of polls for Michigan: In the Democratic primary, Mitchell Research has Abdul El-Sayed (D) with a 52% – 38% lead over Rep Haley Stevens, while the defunct Mallory McMorrow (D) is at 4%, trailing Undecideds, who are at 7%. This is a larger lead for El-Sayed than Mitchell’s prior poll. However, the margin of error is ±4.85 points with n=406 likely primary voters, which is not all that large.

  Meanwhile, in another poll Mitchell has Republican nominee and former Rep Rogers in a tie with El-Sayed at 45%, while Rogers leads Stevens by 3 points, 46% – 43%. Margin of error is ±3.77%.Emerson College Polling has El-Sayed with a 54% – 39% lead, impossible to overcome using only undecideds, so Rep Stevens will have to convince El-Sayed leaners to lean towards herself. I know Emerson had better ratings than Mitchell, so this one should worry Rep Stevens.Finally, unknown Tavern Research gives El-Sayed a 46% – 36% lead, again substantial. Polls can be badly wrong, but three, including Emerson, leaning against Rep Stevens must cast a shadow on her chances.

• The Texas GOP may want to contract with Austin, TX, for a heaping bucket of the blues. The highly respected Fox News Poll does not have good news for them as Democrat James Talarico (D) leads state AG Ken Paxton (R) 51% – 48%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. Of course, the Democrats should lead by more, and that should tell them something, too. But, like the Republicans, they are too arrogant to listen, I expect.

IS CHANGE IN THE AIR?

Not usually, but I never expected to see even a hint that Idaho might be in play. Let’s be frank, it’s still not likely that Senator Risch (R-ID) will lose, but, like the Minnesota Twins game Thursday night in which they were beat until they weren’t, often dominance doesn’t seem to be beatable until someone grits their teeth and doesn’t stop and overturns the unbeatable.

Or, for those of us who favor brevity, persistence pays off.

While the odds are still with their opponents, these two independents could herald the beginning of the replacements for the major Parties of today.

Remember the excitement over SpaceX going public? Well, since then, as of yesterday …

The price per share high was $225 or so, so it’s lost not 25%, as this six month chart shows, but 50% or so.

Not pleasant.

To me, a market cap is the result of investors future expectations of the stock, that being dividends and the likelihood that other investors, for good reason or bad, will bid the price up. Sure, there’s going short, calls, puts, and more outré forms of investing, but that’s the essence. Fundamentals, which are the analysis of the various numbers associated with running a business, technicals, which is the application of mass psychology to the investor class and often seems delusional, stand along side the story aspect of investing: associated with the estimate of the market size, it’s the rationalization of why this company will grow, and in turn grow the return on investment.

Will SpaceX ever grow into its market cap? At its high of $205/sh and an outstanding share count of 10,607,000,000, we’re talking a market cap of $2.17T at one point, which seems huge to me, especially for a company not yet showing a product. But what about its market and story? I’ll leave the market to others, especially since that’ll depend on Mr Musk’s objectives over the next few years, but note that SpaceX’s ownership structure is atypical and concentrates control in the hands of Mr. Elon Musk. Mr. Musk has been erratic over the last few years, demonstrating an inclination to bulldoze his way through obstacles, rather than finding proper and clever paths. While he deserves, and gets, credit for his products congruent with green thinking, his intellectual vulnerabilities apparent in his conspiracy theory mindset and the DOGE debacle make him a sketchy leader.

The SpaceX future becomes a problem in dueling stories: the supposedly immense riches of outer space vs Musk’s erratic behavior in combination with the immense technical challenges of his enterprise. I’ve owned shares of that solar power company that was bought by Tesla, and so I’ve owned Tesla shares as well. Yes, the romanticism attaching to SpaceX is alluring, but I shall have none of it. Elon Musk has been erratic and, in the end, will have disgraced himself with his DOGE antics. Too easily his companies might just collapse.

Apparently Federal agents showed up at a 2025 Governor Newsom (D-CA) press conference … for no good reason:

Leaked messages have shown that federal agents complained about a “political stunt” aimed at Trump nemesis California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Hundreds of explosive court documents have blown the lid off federal immigration operations in Los Angeles, exposing a chaotic mess of random street stops, casual racial slurs, and rogue officers terrified they were being forced to break the law.

The exhibits were included in a motion for a preliminary injunction filed by the American Civil Liberties Union, Public Counsel, and other groups and private attorneys seeking to bar an “ongoing campaign of suspicionless and discriminatory detentive stops” in the Central District of California. [Daily Beast via Newsbreak]

It sounds to me to be the kind of abuse that you punish by arresting the agents, their supervisors, then the Secretary of DHS, and, finally, the President.

And if it’s state police that have to do it, so be it.

Sorry, a bit angry.

Luteal phase:

DJT, the stock symbol of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, has been bouncing upwards of late, so I thought I’d review it. First, DJT’s stock chart from yahoo!:

It’s gained some value, and even breached $10/share at one point today, although it finished with a minuscule loss on the day. Seeing that the major indices did not do well today, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ down more than 1.5%, and the Dow more than 2%, it’s not a bad day’s performance for DJT.

Compared to my last check, too, DJT is doing well. Last time it was at $8.54/sh, so nearly $10/sh is a nice pick-up.

So is it time to plunge all-in?

Me? I won’t. I won’t buy a speck. They do have a new product offering called Truth API. Here’s 24/7 Wall St (via yahoo!):

High-frequency trading firms are paying up to $100,000 a month for a direct API feed to President Trump’s Truth Social posts, according to Wall Street Journal reporting discussed on CNBC Friday morning. Gunjan Banerji, the Journal’s lead markets writer, walked through the mechanics of the arrangement and explained why algorithmic traders view the fee as a cost of doing business rather than a discretionary spend. …

Banerji framed the stakes in the smallest possible time unit. “For the high frequency traders, the types of firms that are subscribing to this data, nanoseconds matter. We’re talking billionths of a second can make a difference in terms of their profits or losses,” she said. Algorithmic desks that trade equities, Treasury futures, currency pairs, and index derivatives can capture or lose meaningful spreads on a single Trump statement about tariffs, sanctions, or personnel.

Let’s skip my objections to high speed trading, which I do not regard as investing, but as parasitism. For me, Truth API is DJT is selling fast access to a failing product, that being President Trump, which may lose its value at any moment. For example, if impeachment proceedings are successful, and a conviction follows, then President Trump reverts to being Donald J. Trump, the guy with a mouth and bad judgment. This might happen before mid-terms, although after mid-terms is more likely. There are other scenarios of similar nature. What is the value of Truth API then?

Sure, it might retain value, but that’s not how I’d bet on it. Mr Trump has been losing respect ever since he resumed office, and I do not see long-term value in this or any other offering of DJT.

But that new product offering may be what’s caused the value to pop in the short term. Or it could be a few other motivations, such as market manipulation by an international ally of the President’s. But don’t look for this to begin climbing to that IPO sale price, and I remain skeptical that there’s any value in their expected merger with TAE. I just don’t see it. Nor do I see their “cryptocurrency treasury” saving them, as $TRUMP and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin are trending downwards. It seems to be a dark future.

As always, I’m an obsolete software engineer with an opinion, I’m not an investment advisor or financial expert. Find one of those if you need advice.

Not all these are from this year.

THEY’RE NOT CHESS PIECES, ALTHOUGH SOME WOULD LOOK GOOD CARVED OUT OF WOOD

President Trump, in his desperation to treat Republican Senators like his personal chess set, may be dooming his midterm results, instead.

Trump on Wednesday told rally-goers in Georgia to “call John Thune” over the Senate GOP’s inability to pass a partisan election bill, known as the SAVE America Act, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday said the president’s patience with the South Dakota Republican is “running out.”

But if Trump’s rhetoric is meant to drive Republican voters to the polls this fall — and some allies believe it will only increase ahead of November — it does little to change the reality in the Senate, where the SAVE America Act still doesn’t have the votes to pass. Instead, many Republicans on Thursday came to their leader’s defense, acknowledging an unwinnable standoff between the president and their 53-seat majority.

“This idea that he can just command members of the Republican conference to get in line is just a fantasy. So I think it’s unfair,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who ran against Thune for majority leader in 2024 and then lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger earlier this year. “I don’t know who it was that sold the president on this idea, that this was obtainable, but it’s creating a circular firing squad for Republicans.” [Politico]

President Trump may view this as a matter of political survival. If the Democrats win Congress, he may believe they’ll impeach him, and, if so, a conviction in the Senate would result not only in his being barred from the Presidency, but also in the resumption of legal proceedings against him at both State and Federal levels, up to and including imprisonment. Furthermore, investigations may resume, and if the rest of his family has been involved in nefarious deeds in the pursuit of money, they, too, could find their freedoms endangered.

But let’s take this a bit further. As a self-proclaimed billionaire, he’s made it clear that he views himself as a superior human who shouldn’t be subject to the same rules as us mere hoi-polloi. Now, it’s not unknown for folks to band together around some shared characteristic, even when they don’t like certain members of the group, because they view that shared characteristic as more important than their personal dislikes.

It’s not unlikely that such a group, bonded by their immense wealth, would become very concerned if Trump’s freedoms were endangered, because that would imply their own vulnerability to government restrictions. What would happen then? Open warfare? Covert warfare? Assassinations?

And will any of this elaborate conspiracy theory occur? I still see the Democrats flipping the House; their chances in the Senate are much less, and even if they do take the Senate, persuading enough Republicans to convict their President seems unlikely, as Tillis, Cassidy, and Cornyn will have been replaced, although listing their replacements could lead to some interesting scenarios.

But, in general, GOP Senators are becoming quite unhappy with the President. The President may be forced into unexpected concessions under threat from GOP Senators post-election. The horse-trading may become a spectacular sport.

FUTURE REALITIES HANGING OVER THEIR HEADS

All of which leads up to the dawning realization among the GOP faithful that their understanding of the American world is perhaps not up to snuff.

Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.

A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.

The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections. [WaPo]

The dangers of the epistemic bubble, eh, the mistake of talking only to ideologically similar folks? Yes, although the Democrats have problems of their own, such as immigration and autocratic inclinations.

It’s far too late for new Parties supplanting the old, but maybe in 2028.

AND NOW THE MAIN EVENT

Last week’s main event was held in Paris. Paris, Texas. It was called the Ephemera Championships, and the trophy was constructed of solidified invisible ink.

• Michigan is a center of Senate campaign activity in this issue, as open seats often prove to be.
  1. First up is former Rep Mike Rogers (R), presumptive nominee of the Michigan Republicans, and, well, I’ll call it his big, monarchical mouth:
     

     Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers has found a new reason for Michiganders to open their wallets: He wants them to help protect Elon Musk from congressional accountability.

     In a fundraising appeal sent Saturday, Rogers warned supporters that Democrats would use control of the Senate to subpoena Musk over his role in the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which carried out sweeping cuts across the federal government.

     “When you stand with my Senate campaign today, you are directly shielding Elon Musk,” Rogers wrote. He then asked for an “immediate, urgent contribution right now to protect Elon and save America.” [Detroit Metro Times]

     Monarchs are, more than often, shielded from most forms of accountability. Just call Rogers a King George lover. See if he twitches. While Republican voters may consider all Democrats unacceptable, independents should see this as a profoundly un-American statement, and vote for someone other than Rogers.

  2. CNN has a subscriber article entitled, In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat.  The Republican is former Rep Rogers, and that Democrat is Abdul el-Sayed, one of the two remaining Democrats in the Michigan Senate primary. Is it a ploy or an unvarnished opinion? The latter, I suspect.
  3. Third, Governor Whitmer (D-MI) is in the endorsement sweepstakes and has endorsed El-Sayed’s primary rival, Rep Haley Stevens (D), for the Michigan Senate seat.
  4. 

     On The Issues: Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI).

     I don’t generally pay attention to polls from Glengariff Group, owing to their poor evaluation results when FiveThirtyEight was still around, but I was intrigued by their latest poll in Michigan. It’s not a direct comparison of the intra-Party rivals in the Democratic primary, but more of a message to primary voters: Rep Stevens (D) has a 46-45% lead, within the margin of error of ±4.0 points, over presumptive Republican nominee and former Rep Mike Rogers (R), but Stevens rival Abdul El-Sayed (D) trails Rep Rogers, not Stevens, by 10 points, 49%-39%. If we assume Glengariff slanted their results, then this may be another sign of the coming rift between progressives and moderate Democrats. However, the fly in this conspiracy ointment is summarized to the right & above: Rep Haley’s position strikes me as more progressive than moderate, even though she’s described as the moderate and El-Sayed as the progressive.

• The Maine Democratic Party Senate nominee is officially Troy Jackson. For whatever “official” is worth, as Graham Platner was also official, having won the primary. If Jackson is as volatile as described, we may yet see another nominee from the Maine Democrats. If such happens, I may have to make vaguely insulting comparisons to the process of replacing former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
• The appointment of Trump-endorsed Darline Graham (R-SC) to her late brother’s South Carolina Senate seat, and her reported interest in the primary for the next general election in November, has not yet resulted in the clearing of the field. Perhaps she’s seen as a weak candidate in this context.The primary special election is scheduled for 11 August.
• In Texas pollster Texas Public Opinion Research gives James Talarico (D) a 45%-40% lead over state AG Ken Paxton (R), with a margin of error of ±3.4 points. I wonder if Senator Cornyn (R) would do better?Perhaps Texas Public Opinion Research should put former Governor Ventura (I-MN) on their Board of Directors, as he was adamant that politics is not a horserace, and yet there it is:
  

  Paxton v. Talarico Horserace

• I don’t see much out of Montana, so GQR, which had a respectable, if not amazing, rating from FiveThirtyEight, is worth reporting. They give US District Attorney Kurt Alme (R) a 41% share, Seth Bodnar (I) 27%, and Rep Bankhead (D) 22%. Bankhead’s name recognition is abysmal at 63% and, until she repairs that omission she’ll not have a chance. Two other polls from other pollsters have similar numbers. These numbers speak for themselves, but it’s not simple to predict those of tomorrow.

THAT IRRITATING LAST WORD

Montana will not be flipped unless Bodnar drops out, and Maine is slowly fading from Democrats’ hopes. Still, there’s plenty of time for something to happen.

And, yes, there is a delay in the acquisition of Warner Bros Discover by Paramount Skydance.

Perhaps ‘typo’ is too strong a noun, but I find the second paragraph quite jarring:

Tropical Storm Bertha, the second storm of the season in the Atlantic Ocean, came ashore in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, on Wednesday afternoon.

As of 2 p.m., the disheveled tropical storm had crossed near the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area. Sustained winds were listed at 45 mph, but those winds were contained mainly in thunderstorms well offshore. The center of circulation was drifting west-northwest at 7 mph. [“Tropical Storm Bertha makes landfall in Louisiana“, Ben Noll & Matthew Cappucci, WaPo]

Yeah, ‘disheveled.’ Are storms disheveled? There’s usually some human association with things that are disheveled, whether it’s your bedroom or your hairpiece. But a storm?

This interrupts the reading as the reader mulls the sentence, and that’s not what a good writer wants. I suspect AI actually wrote this, but, sure, a rookie writer could also make that mistake. A friend once tried to get ‘ingest’ by me in a human context.

“Lisa,” says I, “Humans eat; it’s The Blob that ingests.” Sadly, she had not seen The Blob, which lead to lingering disbelief.

“What did you say about my mother?”

The Monolith Monsters (1957) is that rare thing: a B-list science fiction movie that, every time you think about the science, it’s … plausible. A meteorite hits Earth in the American southwest and spreads rubble near San Angelo, CA. Or at least it’s rubble until it is wetted, and then, due to an exotic chemical reaction, it begins growing.

No, it doesn’t grow into a kaiju, but into an obelisk, a tall tower of material that will eventually collapse under its own weight and creates more of the deadly rubble.

While medical researchers frantically search for the key to the chemical reaction and how it sucks important material out of the human body, town leaders search for a way to save the town, and possibly the entire human race, from the menace of this exotic material.

And will they succeed? There’s this strange taste of this being a dated film, mostly due to the old-fashioned concept of how an American society ought to function, and so that tainted the movie to an extent. But if you can ignore that, it’s a tense member of the How do we fix this problem genre.

And it’s sort of fun.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright strips off some context from an argument, which Steve Benen restores but …

Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on ABC News’ “This Week” and was asked about the latest developments. “Gasoline prices today are more than $1 a gallon cheaper than they were four years ago under the Biden administration,” he argued.

The Cabinet secretary’s reference to “four years ago” gave away the game: Joe Biden’s presidency wrapped up a year and a half ago, but there was a price spike in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Wright apparently wants people to compare Biden-era data to Trump-era data, though he’s playing a tiresome shell game that’s intended to obscure a basic fact: Americans are paying more at the pump now than when Biden exited the White House.

… doesn’t really dig out the details. Specifically, President Biden or his people took a situation, Putin’s War, that was no fault of their own, so far as I could see, and worked that inflation down through opposition to Putin’s War by financing Ukraine and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.

Trump and those who advise him and/or direct him, on the other hand, are responsible for Trump’s War, and thus responsible for its consequences, such as devastation of the world economy, destruction of the American position as lone superpower and the advantages that came with a dollar-based international financial system, and, of course, the gas prices and general inflation.

The fact that Trump cannot remedy the problem, for whatever reason, renders Secretary Wright’s defense specious at best, fraudulent at worst. For all that Biden’s people were caught lying, a decision that cost the Democrats the White House, the Republicans elected a leader who is deeply incompetent, arrogant, lies ceaselessly, pardons criminals in order to win their allegiance, and permits his need for ego-inflation to direct his actions.

And that’s why the Republican Party should be dissolved and replaced.

Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie (2023) is a lot like an extra-long episode from the famous Monk series of its derivation. The private detective Monk’s unstable grip on reality has begun to slip due to the isolation introduced by the Covid 19 pandemic response, but this really reveals Monk’s ongoing central tragedy of his life: the horrific death of his wife at the hands of criminals who were targeting Mr Monk himself during his time as a policeman. This mental degradation results in the loss of a book contract and consequent need to return the advance he’d been paid, and Monk sinks deeply into an existential gloom.

In the midst of this, his wife’s daughter, his stepdaughter, is getting ready to marry, and the celebration was to be funded by Mr. Monk. In a turn to the worst, the groom is journalist Griffin Briggs, but then he dies in a bungee jumping accident – or is it?

The story becomes the struggle between gloom and accident, and scant evidence that Briggs was murdered. As we follow along in Monk’s scrambled wake, we encounter many Monk characters from the past. Keep your scorecard handy.

But we’re not talking about an old villain, but someone new! Who can it be? Look for the biggest ego out there. Yes, it’s all a little bit too convenient, but the ego that may be necessary to do really big things is plausible for someone to engage in murder, and so it’s not entirely ridiculous, just a little bit too, oh, obvious. But that leads to a series of clever maneuvers which I did enjoy.

Is it good? Monk has always been a matter of taste, with an appeal more for audiences with a taste for the sympathetic oddball. Parts of the script could have done with a bit of polishing, as at least some of the characters out of the past were a bit too noodle-headed for my taste. The acting seemed fine, on the other hand, and the plot complexities were on the same order as episodes from the series. I confess the supernatural, or delusional, aspects of the plot were annoying – but that’s just me.

Not great, not awful. Good luck to Mr. Monk in the future.

Get too greedy for the honey and the bees will sting:

A federal magistrate judge ruled Tuesday that President Donald Trump must turn over detailed financial information in connection with his defamation lawsuit against the BBC.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Enjoliqué Lett concluded that Trump’s sweeping complaint put injury to his businesses at the forefront and made their vitality a fair subject for the BBC to demand information about.

“All of President Trump’s brand, properties and businesses are impugned or said to have been impugned. Reputational, economic damages, all of that is now at issue in this case,” Lett said at the conclusion of a three-hour hearing.

Her decision opened the door for the BBC to explore the finances of more than 400 companies owned by a Trump family trust, but Trump can appeal the ruling to U.S. District Court Judge Roy Altman, a Trump appointee. [Politico]

Or, in this case, assault you with their posh Brit accents.

I wonder if the public will get a little insight into the finances.

THE SEED OF INFURIATION

Trump supporters, MAGA and not-MAGA, often celebrate his attempts to “punch back ten times harder,” which sounds all tough and fighty – but politics isn’t always a punching game. Consider this:

The Trump administration on Tuesday paused more than $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota, which Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said would not be reversed until the Democratic-led states “demonstrate that every dollar meets federal requirements.” [MS NOW]

Governors Walz (D) and Newsom (D), the governors of Minnesota and California, respectively, are loathed by President Trump, the former for being on the Democratic ticket, and the latter for standing up to President Trump and making him look bad. No doubt, someone in the Administration thought this was a matter of retribution.

But now Trump has made himself look bad. He’ll look bad to every person affected by Medicaid funds being withheld.

And Walz and Newsom will make this Trump Administration action an important part of many races in their States. Minnesota residents are angry enough over the murders of Minnesota citizens by ICE agents that it probably won’t matter, but it’s possible a House seat or two will flip between the two States.

Dumb move.

NOT A RHETORICAL MIRACLE WORKER

Steve Benen notes the SAVE Act has made little progress with Congress:

The New York Times reported last week that his legislative plea, “which Mr. Trump implied was the reason behind the Thursday night speech, appeared to have landed with a whimper among Republicans on Capitol Hill and in campaigns around the country.” NBC News published a related report as this week got underway:

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, didn’t mince words when he was asked Monday whether President Donald Trump’s primetime speech succeeded in its goal of nudging the Republican-controlled Senate to pass his sweeping elections bill, known as the SAVE America Act.

“No,” Cornyn told NBC News. “We don’t have the votes. … I think the president’s getting some supremely bad advice.”

When NBC News asked Republican Sen. Thom Tillis whether Trump’s speech helped the legislation’s prospects, the North Carolinian replied, “Not at all. There’s no way you get this implemented in time for this election. I think people are being led to believe that that’s the case, and that’s just wrong.”

It’s true the House managed to pass it, as The Guardian (UK) notes, but it was somewhat pathetic:

House Republicans resurrect Save America Act by adding it to spending bill

Effort is latest attempt to pass bill that seeks to ban mail-in ballots and imposes voter identification requirements

That’s Speaker Johnson for you. Rather than make a persuasive case for it, or telling Trump to back off, he quips that intuitively he knows cheating is rampant and then strong-arms the legislation to its doom in the Senate.

The weakest Speaker in modern memory.

THE ANCHOR IN THEIR PANTS IS GETTING BIGGER

Trump’s War, and the Senate’s failure to stop it, will weigh more heavily on them as the Houthis try to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Even if they fail, it’ll push up the cost of insurance used by shippers, which will be passed on to consumers – and they’ll know who to blame.

AND BACK TO OUR DAILY SOAP OPERAS!

• Remember I mentioned the Democratic nominee for the Nebraska Senate race, Cindy Burbank, was still in the race, along with incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I), a few Campaign Updates ago? Now she’s out of the race:
  

  Cindy Burbank, Nebraska’s Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate race, submitted paperwork Friday to remove herself from the November ballot, a move that could clear the way for nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.

  The Secretary of State’s office confirmed that Burbank filed a form saying she was declining to run Friday morning.

  Burbank did not immediately respond to an Examiner request for comment. In a video posted to her Facebook page, she said: “I’ve looked at the numbers. I won’t be your next senator. So I have withdrawn my bid for U.S. Senate.” [Nebraska Examiner]

  Confirmed by Ballotpedia, which tends to get these things right. And remember that part about suing to remove names from primary ballots? I suppose this next bit might be filed under, ummmmm, karma? What goes around comes around? Oh, there’s a dusty old aphorism that fits, surely…

  Secretary of State Bob Evnen will send a letter on Monday to Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers asking for his decision on whether Burbank should be allowed to drop out, Evnen spokesperson Rani Taborek-Potter said Friday.

  Finally, this just seems to be incoherent gibberish.

  [Incumbent] Ricketts’ campaign released a statement Friday on Burbank dropping out.

  “Dan Osborn has rigged yet another party’s ballot because he is the Democrats’ nominee,” the statement said.

  Perhaps Senator Ricketts and his campaign can’t believe this is happening. It does appear to be his worst scenario, but it’s impossible to say whether Osborn can keep it close until the end, and then pull out a victory.

• The previous Campaign Update mentioned that legislator Troy Jackson (D) is the presumptive Democratic nominee for Maine Senator Collins’ (R-ME) seat, and now we have a University of New Hampshire poll on both the race for the nomination, which shows Jackson with a large lead, and a general election poll, giving Jackson a 49% – 46% lead over Senator Collins, with a margin of error of ±2.8 points. That makes it a close race, presuming Jackson does, indeed, win the nomination. The convention is 25 July.

  Senator Collins, realizing she’s in a tight race, has come out against the recent tariffs on Canadian goods:

  [Maine] shares a border and a close economic relationship with Canada, making it among those most likely to see a strong economic downside from the new levies. And the strong reaction from Republicans and Democrats across Maine made it clear just how much of a political albatross the policy might be in a top battleground that Trump lost by seven points in 2024. Tariffs in general have been particularly unpopular in the Pine Tree State: A June New York Times poll found that 59 percent of likely voters in Maine disapprove of them. [Politico]

  Both healthy for the nation and politically smart.

• A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll for the Minnesota primaries shows Rep Craig and Lt Governor Flanagan tied at 40% in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator Smith’s to-be-open seat, with 16% undecided and 4% leaning towards an undefined ‘other’, suggesting a large reservoir of votes are available. The undecideds is most popular with the aged 18-34 crowd and the female group. How does this differ compared with last month’s result?
  

  The DFL-endorsed Flanagan gained 4 points from last month while Craig dropped 1, putting them even at 40% of the vote.

  Lt Gov Flanagan has the endorsement of the Senator she might be replacing, Senator Tina Smith (D), received last February.

  Michelle Tafoya has a large lead on the Republican side, 41%-10%, over second place candidate Royce White. The GOP-endorsed candidate, Adam Schwarze, continues to lag very badly, and undecideds are at 28%, meaning even if Royce White were to pick all of them up, Tafoya would still lead, although probably within the margin of error, which does not appear to be provided. She’s the nominee sans a black swan event, I think.

  The primary is 11 August.

• If your candidate runs when a journalist asks a question, perhaps you should replace the candidate. I mean, Texas‘ GOP Senate candidate and Texas AG Ken Paxton is a prime candidate to be replaced based just on personal history. All those white hats in the video? Put that many on stage and that speaks to me … BLACK HAT. Senator Cornyn, stay near your phone. The Texas GOP may be placing an emergency call to you.
• An AARP poll gives Georgia Senator Ossoff (D) a 52% – 43% over challenger Rep Mike Collins. I don’t know if AARP polls have a good history, though.
• Michigan Senate candidate Abdul el-Sayed (D) has received the endorsement of Senator Tina Smith (D-MN), according to The Hill. But do Michigan voters care? It sure seems like Senator Smith has been a non-entity in her first, and, it turns out, only term in the Senate, but then that seems to apply to most of the one hundred Senators. She retires at the end of this term.

FIN

That’s it for this issue. The question marks remain numerous, and no one anxiously awaits the next issue.