Category Archives: Uncategorized

No doubt my reader has heard a bit of the Reflecting Pool debacle, in which President Trump handed a favored company to fix some long-standing problems with this national memorial and only made it worse.

But then this occurred:

Jailbreak:

Jailbreaking is defined as the process of removing or bypassing limitations set by manufacturers of the device, developers of the operating system, or the application store. It is a process that empowers end users to have the right to install unauthorized software, access system features that are not visible, and modify system behavior. For instance, iOS jailbreaking enables iPhone users to change or add new applications, tweak fundamental settings, and download new modifications not available in the App Store. According to statistics, jailbreak solutions make up to 10% of the applications in some third-party stores, pointing to steady demand among geeks. However, such changes are accompanied by increased risks associated with the use of stolen accounts or the presence of viruses in the distribution network. [SentinelOne]

A morality-neutral definition. Noted in “The White House said Anthropic’s powerful AI was ‘jailbroken.’ Here’s what that means.,” Kevin Schaul and Nitasha Tiku, WaPo:

ADMIN NOTE

No more brevity, as the brace came off as anticipated, and the surgeon was pleased with the healing progress. I think I’m back to typing at my old speed, which is no great shakes but still better than hunt & peck, aka the seek and ye shall find technique, as my Dad used to call it.

VALUING INDEPENDENCE

For those voters who understand and value the importance of Senators being independent of Party directives, also known as the gibberish of President Trump, in our form of government, it may be cheering to see Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) orchestrating some counter-moves to President Trump’s foolishness with regard to Trump’s War, tariffs, and nominations.

As to the latter topic, Trump’s designation of Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI) certainly needed a rebuke, since the only qualification Pulte possesses is championship-level sycophancy towards Trump; he has no national intelligence experience. Since Trump values loyalty and physical appearance (“right out of central casting”), not merit or competency, above all else, he selected Pulte, who has used his previous and still-current position of Director of Federal Housing Finance Agency to attack Trump’s political enemies, such as now-former Fed chairman Powell.

Thune wants a proper DNI, as do the Democrats, and reauthorization of the controversial Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) is being held up as a leverage tool. Presumably, word reached Trump that Pulte was unacceptable, and persuaded him to nominate US Attorney for SDNY Jay Clayton, but then he withdrew the nomination and is letting Pulte run the agency until the Senate approves a voter ID bill of which Trump is overly fond.

So far as I know, Clayton also lacks qualifications required by law, so this all may be a moot machination. However, Clayton has not caught my attention for stunts on par with Pulte’s clumsy bluster.

All that is to note that GOP Senators up for reelection do seem, at least in part, to be trying to separate themselves from the incompetent President.

ALIENATION?

Still, they need to worry about alienated voting groups, like this:

The last time President Trump faced a midterm election, in 2018, congressional Republicans were dragged down by his unpopularity and lost more than three dozen House seats.

But even in defeat, the bottom never truly fell out for the Republicans that year — the party actually gained ground in the Senate — as working-class white voters largely kept their faith in Mr. Trump’s economic know-how.

Today, that once-deep reservoir of good will has largely evaporated.

Blue-collar white voters are, for the first time, seriously doubting Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy. A review of polling by The New York Times shows an extraordinary swing on that issue among white voters without college degrees between his first midterm election and now. [The New York Times]

I’ve seen similar reports for farmers as well. The relevant GOP Senators may have to campaign aggressively in rural areas, and have prominent disagreements with President Trump, to break that association of the President and his persistent foolishness with the Senators. But what to do for blue collar workers in general is not so clear. There’s little time for cleaning up the economy.

FOLLOW THE TRAIL OF BREADCRUMBS

Here’s some.

• The 16 June primary runoff elections in Alabama yielded Everett Wess as the winner of the Democratic primary, defeating Dakarai Larriett. Mr. Wess appears to have little electoral experience.
  

  On The Issues: Rep Barry Moore (R-AL).

  The Republican side of the primary season has been a raucous affair as inexperienced Jared Hudson was seen by some pollsters to be leading Rep Barry Moore, but in the end Rep Moore won rather easily, 55.8% – 44.2%, although I suspect many observers were shocked that even a primary was necessary. So it’ll be Wess vs Moore, with expectations being an easy victory for Moore. President Trump’s endorsement of Rep Moore should be a light burden in Alabama.

  Further, Moore is a favorite of the cryptocurrency industry, whose super PAC is spending $9.8 million on pro-Moore ads. I’ll skip the joke about printing money to give away, I’m sure someone would howl that it’s not true. Yes, I do have vague concepts on cryptocurrency implementations.

  Notably, while Democrats saw 339,903 votes in the primary election, only 89,585 made the effort for the runoff. Comparable Republican numbers are 481,952 and 310,529, suggesting much greater enthusiasm. Which way will independents lean? Probably Republican.

• 

  On The Issues: Rep Collins (R-GA).

  The 16 June primary elections in Georgia gives Erick Erickson some reflux as Rep Collins defeats former football coach Derek Dooley in the Republican primary for the Senate seat, 55.9% – 44.1%. It’s not a bad showing by Mr Dooley, but given the Senatorial performance of Senator Tuberville, another former football coach, and the babblings of failed GOP nominee Herschel Walker in 2022, neither of whom had any experience in elective office, the Georgia GOP voters showed some wisdom in picking someone with experience, even a far-right candidate like Collins. But that’s a very small amount of wisdom, as this strategist emphasizes:

  “If you went to a laboratory and tried to create the worst general election candidate for this state and environment possible, you couldn’t do better than Mike Collins,” a prominent Georgia Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told MS NOW.

  “He has a ton of personal baggage and won’t be able to raise money. He possesses the unique ability to offend female voters with that personal baggage but also with the hardest right abortion stance you can have. He will lose the Atlanta metro in unprecedented fashion, and we have to hope he doesn’t take everyone else down with him.”

  Or go read Erickson. I suspect that, absent black swan events, Senator Ossoff’s (D-GA) seat is now safe.

• 

  On The Issues: Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK).

  The 16 June primary elections in Oklahoma yielded Rep Hern (R) as the Republican nominee for the to-be-open Senate seat of appointed Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK), garnering 67.3% of the Republican primary vote. The Democrats had a less definitive result, as nurse N’Kiyla Thomas, with 45.2% of the Democratic vote, and lawyer Jim Priest, with 23.9% of the vote, advanced to a primary runoff to be held 25 August. Neither appears to have elective experience. The Libertarian candidate will be Sevier White, although whether he will fill a key role in this election is not yet clear, and may not be clear until after the general election is finished.

  Rep Hern (R) should be considered the odds-on favorite for the general election in November.

• I didn’t anticipate writing about the Massachusetts Senate primary, but now Suffolk University has released a poll which shows Senator Markey (D) leading likely Republican primary winner John Deaton (R) 55% – 30%, and Markey’s primary rival, Rep Seth Moulton (D), leading Deaton by even more at 54% – 26%.I confess I’ve not been paying attention, since I see Massachusetts as safe for the Democrats, and so it remains. But is Senator Markey safe, or, having been in various elective offices since 1973 and being 79 years of age, is he burned toast? Is Moulton making inroads with his questions about transgender rights when it comes to sports? For primary voters, that seems unlikely – but we shall see.
• In Michigan pollster Mitchell Research, fairly respectable in 2024, gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 42% share of the Democratic primary election for Senator, while fellow Democrat Rep Haley Stevens has a 33% share, and Mallory McMorrow, who disavowed Party leader Senator Schumer a few weeks ago, has been reduced to a 6% share. I noticed the number of participants in the survey is a relatively low 409, resulting in a margin of error of a largish ±4.85. The primary is 4 August, a long ways off.
• SurveyUSA was a highly respected pollster in 2024, with a 2.4/3 FiveThirtyEight rating, so this KSTP/SurveyUSA^[1] poll of Minnesota voters is of interest:
  

  Former sportscaster Michele Tafoya is easily in front right now in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.

  Tafoya received 36% of the vote today, far ahead of the 15% for Royce White and 7% for GOP-endorsed candidate Adam Schwarze. However, 27% are still undecided.

  That Mr Schwarze, the candidate endorsed by the attendees of the GOP convention, is failing this badly demonstrates a potential gap between GOP devotees willing to give up a weekend to attend a convention, and the more casual member of the Minnesota GOP base.

  Results for Democrats in the same poll …

  [Rep Angie] Craig garnered 41% of the vote, ahead of the 36% for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who won the DFL endorsement. Roughly 18% of respondents are still undecided while 6% support another DFL candidate.

  I appreciated the demographic breakdown:

  • Craig received nearly half the vote from men while Flanagan leads slightly among women.
  • Younger voters favor Flanagan slightly while older voters, especially 65+, skew toward Craig.
  • Unsurprisingly, more liberal voters are backing Flanagan while moderates favor Craig.

  Can Rep Craig maintain her appeal to moderates? Independents will mostly skew moderate. Lt Governor Flanagan and Rep Craig have been going at it hammer & tongs in commercials, seems to me as a Minnesotan who doesn’t seek out politics but has them thrust upon him, and there will be some damage to whoever wins the nomination.

  And then the general election result? Let me draw an analogy, again from the same poll …

  MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell is ahead of the field in the Republican primary for governor.

  The businessman and staunch ally of President Donald Trump is getting 27% of the primary vote today. House Speaker Lisa Demuth garnered 22% of respondents’ votes, with GOP-endorsed Kendall Qualls at 17%. Roughly 24% of likely Republican voters are still undecided.

  Lindell is a conspiracy theorist and gabbling lunatic who appeals to those from the victimhood cult. If that characterizes much of the Minnesota GOP, it’s quite likely some portion of the GOP portion of the electorate will stay home on Election Day, convinced either that the dark powers have deprived them of their chosen candidate, or that the candidate is unrepresentative of their views.

  Minnesota primary election day is 11 August, and don’t mistake the limited number of candidates listed above as the totality; both sides have more than these listed. And, no, I don’t recognize any of those names, but I come from an age of pseudonymous social media, so my lack means little. Good luck to all of them, and I hope they accomplish whatever it is they’re trying to accomplish, so long as it’s not illicit.

• In Montana the left’s hopes to turn back Kurt Alme’s (R) bid for the Senate seat may have suffered a setback:
  

  When Alani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana, announced that she would hold a news conference Monday afternoon, many fellow Democrats hoped she would announce that she was dropping out.

  The idea was to make way for an independent candidate, Seth Bodnar, who is seen by many as more electable than Ms. Bankhead in a heavily Republican state.

  Ms. Bankhead did not play ball.

  “If dropping out was the right move to pave the way for a better candidate, I would absolutely do it,” Ms. Bankhead said in a defiant speech. “But Seth Bodnar is absolutely the last person on the face of the Earth I would ever drop out of this race for.” She added: “I am never dropping out. Ever. Ever.” [The New York Times]

  Ms. Bankhead finds her offense in … two-year-old news that the university had settled a sex-discrimination lawsuit during his tenure. Mr. Bodnar had “established a pattern of dismissing and discriminating against women,” and he should “read the room and back out,” Ms. Bankhead said.

• Maine’s Senator Collins (R), up for reelection against oyster farmer and former Marine Graham Platner (D), regrets nothing, apparently:
  

  NEWS CENTER MAINE: This is the first reelection campaign that you’re run since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. I was hoping you could talk to me a little bit about your vote to confirm Kavanaugh and whether you regret that?

  SUSAN COLLINS: I do not regret that vote.

  Do Mainers dislike Justice Kavanaugh? Or is this an irrelevancy?

• Is this, net, good or bad for Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)?
  

  On Friday [19 June?], CNN’s KFile team reported that Dan Osborn, the Democratic-backed independent Senate candidate from Nebraska, recalled calling ICE on replacement workers hired after his union went on strike in 2021, despite heavily criticizing the agency throughout his campaign. [Mediaite]

  Independent voters who are against mass migration may approve Osborn’s behavior, along with union members and moderate Republicans; progressive Democrats may disapprove, but moderate Democrats may approve. Scabs, the colloquialism for replacement workers, seems a problematic topic in left politics.

• In Wyoming, the Democrats have a second candidate running in the Democratic primary, Billy Benavidez. He does not appear to have experience with elective office, and is using the well-worn I’m new around here approach to the election.

  For the record, Rep Hageman (R), the presumed favorite in the Republican primary, has four competitors. There are no polls in this race, as of yet.

ON THE MARQUEE

The next Senate voting opportunity comes on 27 June for Louisiana’s primary runoffs for both Republicans and Democrats, followed by Colorado’s primary election on 30 June.

¹ KSTP is the Twin Cities ABC network affiliate.

Recent headline, like so many:

I’m a couples therapist. Here’s how to have a better relationship.

Time for a new headline.

I’m a grifter. Here’s why you should believe what I say.

CNN supplies the article title, article itself paywalled:

Trump threatens Iranian delegation while Vance holds talks with them

And will the Iranians have any concerns?

Of course not. They’ve endured, and quite possibly won, a war with Trump. So Trump is mouthing off. Why?

Well, it’s more than It’s what Trump does. No, there’s more going on, and it has to do with Trump supporters needing something to point at, pick up off the ground, and chew on. They can point at it and claim it’s part of Trump’s master strategy.

But in the end, it does little. It’s just the failed President running his mouth once again, and embarrassing the United States in the process.

More of the prancing dance, isn’t it?

Trump doubles down on feud with Italian Prime Minister Meloni, insisting she asked for G7 photo  [CNN, paywall]

Yep, more hand waving, please don’t look at … this:

Strait of Hormuz is closing again. Few ships were leaving the waterway anyway  [CNN, paywall]

That’s right, Trump’s much touted peace-treaty, in progress, is hitting rocks and sinking as Iran claims both Israel and the United States are violating the cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump is busy with, frankly, sleazy implications concerning the prime minister of Italy, claiming she begged for a picture with him.

Seems unlikely, even for the leader of a far-right Italian party.

And how about that Reflecting Pool debacle?

Algae, peeling blue material, conspiracy theories: Reflecting Pool takes national spotlight [CNN, paywall]

Could it be deliberate? Sure, it could be, although I have no way to prove one way or the other.

And there’s other news, but look for the news that’s important, news that invalidates claims of military glory. Trump’s failures such as the Reflecting Pool renovation will generate outrage from some, but the real threats to his Presidency are the Epstein Files and Trump’s Lost War. He wants you to think Meloni adores him and the Pool was sabotaged, rather than consider the possibility that his name is quite popular in the files of a pedophile, and that a war he chose to initiate because he desires gratification above all, that is causing inflation crippling to many citizens he’s supposed to protect, is being lost due to his incompetence.

No, governance is never easy, and if you think it is, you’re a schmuck or quite young.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
– H. L. Mencken

Antimacassar:

An antimacassar is a small piece of fabric placed over the back or arms of chairs and sofas. At first glance, it may seem like a simple decorative cloth, but it actually has a very practical origin. In the past, people used hair oils that could easily stain furniture, and antimacassars were created to protect upholstery from these marks.

The idea began in the 19th century, when a popular hair product called Macassar oil was widely used. This oil left greasy stains on furniture, especially on headrests. To solve this problem, households started placing removable cloth covers on chairs, which could be washed or replaced easily. [The Styles Magazine]

I was discussing protection of my computer room chair arms from the desk with my Arts Editor when she used the word antimacassar, and I had to ask what it meant. I’m not sure the delicate lace fabric depicted at the link will be adequate, but my previous chair suffered significant damage from the desk, over maybe fifteen years.

This warning caught me off-guard:

“I said I want juniper berries on my pizza!” he snarled. “Not olives! And stop that sniggerin’!”

Running Time (1997) is a surprisingly well-written story about a flash-gang of thieves, by which I mean a criminal gang assembled, on a moment’s notice, as a plan comes together. The jailed leader, Carl, has just been released from prison, out early for good behavior, and the first thing he does is set in motion his next heist, planned over five years, in partnership with good old dependable, didn’t-get-jailed, buddy Patrick.

Who sweetens the deal with a prostitute, Janie, for Carl.

Patrick, who delegated responsibilities to the wrong person.

Yes, this is a salutary tale of why thieves sometimes keep on thieving, giving the audience a taste of the thievish culture of immaturity and flawed understanding of how things work. It’s nicely done.

But the real charm of this story is that it’s told as if it were done in one long take, from Carl being picked up outside the prison by Patrick to Carl’s pell-mell escape, not only from the cops, but arguably from his old life of consorting with failures to a new one. The only break that I recall comes when Carl passes out once or twice. The old Greeks had something similar called the theory of the three unities, and it ties the theatrical elements together.

I won’t recommend Running Time, as there’s a lack of sympathetic characters that leads to a certain puzzlement over why the audience should care, but if you’re looking for something comprehensible, noir, and a bit off-kilter, you could do worse. Enjoy the wordplay. But be careful about watching the sex scene, it just about gave me a crick in the neck.

Back in late January / early February, President Trump was rattling his cage with his cries for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, in the belief that such an action would rev up an economy that was sputtering, as the news stylists like to say. As Fed chair Powell’s term was coming to an end, Trump nominated a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, with the obvious hopes that Warsh would reverse the Fed’s policy of higher interest rates, which was in place in hopes of controlling inflation.

Into this interlude I’ll insert an old memory of running across a piece of spam – not email, but real life paper mail – that promised that President Bush, that’s #1, not #2, would be re-elected because Fed chairman Alan Greenspan would ensure a roaring economy for Bush. And this would hike up certain stocks, and you should buy them, yada yada.

President Bush, for the record, was not re-elected; instead, the rascally Bill Clinton won the election. Fed chairmen are independent of the President for a reason, and that’s to formulate monetary policies that benefits the nation – not necessarily the President.

Back to the story, Fed chairman Warsh ran his first meeting yesterday, 17 June, and did not dictate the lower interest rates Trump demands. Indeed, he doesn’t appear to have tried:

Warsh deflected repeated questions about why the Fed held rates while so many officials signaled hikes ahead, citing his opposition to “forward guidance.” The decision to hold was unanimous, and the Fed didn’t consider hikes at its meeting, he said. [WaPo]

And for those betting on lower interest rates at the next meeting?

Nine of the 19 officials who participate in Fed policy meetings penciled in at least one rate increase by the end of the year, up from zero in March, when most Fed officials still anticipated cutting rates.

The Fed is an example of distributed design, the hallmark of which are decisions made not by a central authority, but by the responsible local, or autonomous, node. The isolation serves to mitigate the influence of non-germane factors on the decision-making process, even in the face of stacking the deck, to use an old euphemism for sometimes illegal manipulation of starting conditions and complexities. Trump selected Warsh as Warsh is known to favor lowering interest rates in general, but Warsh did not come through.

But, and more importantly, this is yet another loss for President Trump, blatant evidence that he doesn’t understand how American government, politics, and economics works, and that he’s convinced that he does.

He shouldn’t listen to himself.

While I don’t expect this particular failure to be followed immediately by him being chased out of office, it is certainly another brick in the wall – and it’s very hard to know when MAGA will reform itself and realize that its only way back to respectability will be via participating in the removal of Trump from office. It’s best to think about this in a time series of probabilities; as it becomes clear that Trump’s War may have resulted in an Iranian victory, as many conservatives have begun to mention, I expect the probability of Trump leaving office, probably on a Trump airliner heading out of the country, will jump.

And then comes the rebuilding of our politics phase, as his minions, both in the White House and in Congress, start having to make decisions about policy.

Today the brace came off my right hand and I can almost type normally; the post-surgical swelling is slowing me down a little, but this is a welcome step forward and, having gone through this with the left hand, I’m confident a full recovery, or so close it doesn’t matter, will be coming in the next month or two.

What does this mean for my readers? I’ll be a trifle more prolix, or chatty, but the impact is really on the other side of the keyboard, where I’ll be writing much more quickly.

Some headline writer needs their head examined:

Trump beats a longtime adversary with a late Georgia endorsement, and other election takeaways [CNN]

This is a reference to Rep Collins defeating former football coach Derek Dooley in the Georgia primary runoff. Governor Kemp (R-GA) had endorsed the latter, while President Trump endorsed the former.

Except Trump didn’t. Not until 14 June. The primary date was 16 June.

Endorsements are traditionally a manner in which one political participant, whether it be a powerful individual such as a (ex-) governor or a union leader, confirms the ideological congruency of the endorsee to the endorser, and that the endorsee is competent to the job. Governor Kemp has been campaigning for Dooley since August of 2025, when he endorsed Dooley.

President Trump has replaced that definition with a definition that feels like a weapon, because he has proclaimed many times, on many occasions, that those he endorses win, and win by a landslide. This is false, of course, with his endorsement of failed Iowa gubernatorial candidate Randy Feenstra (R-IA) as just one example. But it does result in Republicans often doing the dolphin dance, looking for that faux-magical endorsement by putting themselves in front of the camera, often at Fox News, in order to catch and hold

So this was a clash of a callow President’s “philosophy,” if sops to his ego combined with ties binding winning candidates to his ankles qualifies as a philosophy, with the old definition of a politician simply saying he likes a candidate’s ideology, competency, merit, and bona fidēs.

Obviously, the two should not be compared; when Trump is pushed out of office, his definition should be discarded by everyone, no matter how much he trumpets its importance.

And CNN really blew it with that headline.

Remember the Sunday UFC event at the White House?

World Liberty Financial will play a key role in UFC^® FREEDOM 250 as the Presenting Partner of a new $250,000 Performance of the Night bonus pool, which will be awarded to UFC athletes selected for standout performances during the event.

The bonuses will be paid in USD1, World Liberty Financial’s U.S. dollar-backed, compliant stablecoin and one of the fastest-growing stablecoins on the market. USD1 bonuses will be awarded in addition to the traditional Performance of the Night bonuses presented to athletes by UFC President and CEO Dana White following the event. The USD1 payout will be awarded independently of the previously announced Crypto.com $1 million bonus pool, which goes to the two athletes who compete in the Fight of the Night. [businesswire]

I hope the fighters, or whoever is in charge of their financial planning, immediately converted the cryptocurrency to dollars. Yes, yes,  I know: stablecoins … but …

Despite the name, stablecoins are not necessarily stable. Stablecoins rely on stabilization tools such as reserve assets or algorithms that match supply and demand to try to maintain a stable value. [Wikipedia]

This CNN headline sums it up:

‘Trump has surrendered to Iran’: Some prominent GOP hawks fear Trump just caved

But let’s pull a bit more detail:

When President Donald Trump launched the Iran war in February, he risked alienating the non-interventionist base he had spent a decade cultivating.

As he now tries to extract himself from the highly unpopular war, it looks increasingly like he might inflame the other side of his base — the foreign policy hawks with whom he suddenly found himself in-league.

While there are few hard details of what’s actually in the memorandum of understanding, or MOU, with Iran, those hawks are openly worrying that Trump gave away too much in the name of trying to end the war. They’ve made no secret that they fear Trump signing on to a nuclear agreement like the one struck by the Obama administration in 2015, which they (and Trump himself) derided as too weak for more than a decade.

Which is to say that the neocons, who often advocate for wars such as the Iraq War, can’t stand the thought of compromise. Maybe it doesn’t fit into their narrative of the invincibility of the American military, or the Mighty Hand of God that supposedly backs the Republicans and America – and, remember, they’re selling themselves to their audience, not measuring their pronouncements for their future accuracy. When Trump fails to deliver on his promises, their “success” is threatened – and he may be inspiring more backers to join the former backer crowd, these days mostly made up of Epstein Files worriers.

Conservative pundit Marc Thiessen, who I hardly read, is uncharacteristically angry, reports MediaMatters for America:

[H]awkish Fox contributor Marc Thiessen expressed concern about a deal on Monday’s edition of Fox & Friends, the president’s beloved morning show. Thiessen, who has reportedly advised Trump privately about the war, called last week for a “decisive attack” on Iran to “finish the job.”

“We don’t know the details of the deal yet,” Thiessen noted on Monday. “We don’t know what has been agreed to, and the nuclear part is still to be negotiated. This is just an agreement to negotiate the nuclear side. So that’s one problem.”

Numerous pundits are expressing discomfort over the failure to release the MOU (peace framework) for their salivatory satisfaction. I see Trump delaying a release for personal tactical reasons, hoping to avoid more accusations of being a fool.

He may end up bombing Iran again on Friday.

Much like Thiessen, radio host and pundit Erick Erickson wants more war, but he has reasons:

Donald Trump started a war with Iran, and now he is ending it on terms worse than the status quo he inherited. That is the plain shape of what happened, however the White House and its surrogates dress it up.

The war came at a price—lost lives, oil markets convulsing, allies rattled, and an economic shock that rippled from Tehran to global commodity prices. What started as a strong campaign to end a regime is ending with subsidy and surrender by the Americans. We are choosing to give up.

The ending arrives as a memorandum of understanding, signed on Sunday, whose full text the administration has been conspicuously slow to publish. When a deal is good, you release the text. When you guard it, you are managing a story rather than reporting a victory. Senator Lindsey Graham, no dove, has asked for the document and admitted he is concerned Iran reads the agreement differently than our own negotiators claim.

The big reason?

And here is the failure that unites Obama and Trump, the blind spot neither administration will name: Mahdism, a religious belief that Iran must set the stage for the return of the Twelfth Imam, who disappeared from the planet as a child, but will return. The Revolutionary Guard promotes ideological zeal over competence. Devout believers in a militaristic Mahdism control Iran’s three pillars of power—its militias, its missiles, and its nuclear program. These are men for whom the destruction of Israel is not policy but prerequisite, a barrier to be removed so the Twelfth Imam may return. This is not opinion. It is the presuppositional foundation on which the regime operates.

I have no idea if that’s anywhere near the truth, but I will note that Obama’s approach had a good chance of driving these folks, if they exist, out of power – peaceably.

It’s also notable that a portion of the evangelicals in the Republican Party have, in broad outline, similar beliefs. They believe they can precipitate the end times, a religious doctrine of how the Christian universe ends. It involves rivers of blood, so my reader can evaluate for themselves.

Of course, The New York Times is no ally of Trump, but I’ll finish with their biting summary of the likely final results:

On balance, Iran emerges the strategic winner of the four-month war. It did suffer substantial losses, including much of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the war’s first day. With the war ending, however, Iran’s leadership can begin rebuilding.

The United States, for its part, looks weaker in the eyes of the world. The American military has shown itself unable to quash a much smaller opponent even as it burned through many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The outcome damages this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin to repair the damage, the United States would be wise to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that have been frayed by the war’s military and economic effects. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. Neither is likely to happen under President Trump.

ADMIN

Apologies, hand, surgery, etc. Almost done with the brace!

HE HOPS THE FENCE AND INTO THE WILDERNESS HE TROTS

… while shouting, in a voice hoarsened by incessant lying, It’s a wonderful city, isn’t it? I designed it myself!

Hours after the Labor Department reported that inflation had crested above 4 percent for the first time since early 2023, [President] Trump told reporters, “I love it, the numbers were great,” adding that oil prices didn’t climb as high as he thought they might when he ordered attacks on Iran in late February.

“I love the inflation,” he said. “You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, … it’s going to come down like a rock.” [Politico]

Well, at least when he predicts negative inflation, it’s technically possible. That’s when prices drop.

This is what happens when a chronic liar, painted into a corner, takes too big a sniff of the paint fumes, and tries to claim the ongoing disaster is a good thing that he will enjoy. Supporters will hold cult meetings expressly to try to interpret the occult Trump signs.

Republicans running for Senate seats must be aghast as the chains around their waists tighten and they’re dragged towards the edge of the cliff by the babbling idiot on the other end, swinging back, swinging forth, oblivious to the sand and pebbles of his tumbled fortress falling into his eyes.

Can they unlock the chains in time? Or will they wait for the Democrats to fall on their swords? The latter is actually not a bad strategy, but if the Democrats are leaning towards more sensible policy positions, as noted in a previous installment, success may be marginal.

BUT HE HAS A CEASE-FIRE!

And that’s not the unconditional surrender he claimed was imminent for how long?

But at this point, we should just fire him and take what we can get. While we’re not yet near riots in the streets, we have some toes on that path, and really need to think about how things are going. Republicans, are you paying attention? Well, this guy isn’t.

THIS IS A BIG HINT

To both Republicans and Democrats:

President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating continues to weigh down his party ahead of the midterms — though the GOP has a slim measure of separation from the president, with Democrats holding a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new national NBC News poll.

The poll — which was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to advancing democracy — found 49% of registered voters say they prefer to see Democrats control Congress as a result of this year’s elections, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control and 7% who are unsure. [NBC News]

Each side has, as its adversary, a Party constituted of whack-jobs and flakes, condemning the other as Evil Incarnate – and not without reason. That neither side is running away is a condemnation from the independents, who are shaking their heads.

It’s time for new Parties.

Meanwhile, if the Republicans led an impeachment of the President, I’ll bet they’d retain control of Congress.

THE WAKE OF DOOM <cough> <cough>

• In Alaska the latecomer Sullivan claims to be in earnest:
  

  Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan acknowledges that sharing a name and party affiliation with the incumbent Republican gives him “an instant megaphone” in the crowded primary race. But Sullivan said his campaign isn’t a sham or something Democrats put him up to doing. …

  “This is my choice,” Sullivan, who lives in the small fishing community of Petersburg, said in a telephone interview Monday. [AP]

  But the Alaska Division of Elections disagrees, and has disallowed the second Sullivan from running. Only one Dan Sullivan at a time, please? Some common-sense solutions are offered up in the article, such as labeling the Senator as the incumbent on the ballot. Maybe one of them will be selected.

  In polling news, Alaska Survey Research finds …

  Mary Peltola [(D)] extends her lead over Dan Sullivan [(R)] to over 5 points in the US Senate general election race!

  But I can’t find the actual poll. Is it wise to trust a BlueSky news release? Especially if they seem partisan?

• In Texas …
  

  Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a 3-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State’s Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by the Texas Pulse. [The Hill]

  I do not know Texas Pulse, so is this significant?

  Meanwhile, there’s dissension in the ranks:

  As Texas Republicans meet for their state convention in Houston to project unity after heated primaries, the former top Republican elected official in the state’s biggest red county will take over local radio airwaves with one message: “I won’t vote for Ken Paxton.”

  The one-minute ad featuring former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley will be blasted on conservative airwaves in Houston on Friday and Saturday during the GOP’s state convention. The pro-James Talarico super PAC, Lone Star Rising, spent around $5,000 for an initial ad run during the convention but will continue to air the spot throughout the campaign season. [Spectrum News]

  While it won’t move hordes of Texas voters, it’ll make some few think. It also makes primary voters look bad, which will cause more dissension as primary voters who voted for Paxton grow resentful of the condemnation.

• In Maine, the 9 June primary election yielded Graham Platner (D) easily winning the Democratic primary, 72% – 19.5%, and rendering my speculations of an upset by Governor Mills (D) bootless. His first challenge? Not Senator Collins (R), but this:
  

  Platner, a Marine Corps veteran and first-time candidate, launched his campaign in August 2025 as a populist challenger to five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. He withstood early uproar over inflammatory Reddit posts and a Nazi-linked tattoo, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills’s withdrawal from the Democratic primary race all but assured his win.

  But he faces a different electorate in the general election, and recent reports that he sent sexually explicit texts to several women while married and mistreated former romantic partners have cast additional doubt on his electability.

  Platner has responded to many of the revelations by attributing his past actions to poor mental health and post-traumatic stress disorder after his military service, saying voters should focus on Collins’s voting record. He also denied recent allegations from an ex-girlfriend that he was physically intimidating, pointing to her past in GOP politics to question her credibility. [WaPo]

  That was published 10 June, one day after the primary election. As Senator Collins is a moderate Republican, independents are not going to feel as strongly motivated to vote against a Republican incumbent Senator as they might in some States. Makes ya wonder about WaPo, doesn’t it? Maybe working for the Republicans?

  However, Mr Platner is not without options. He could drop out of the race, for one thing, and the Party could then select his rival, Governor Mills, despite her age. She’s older than Collins, and the Party should be asking where the up and comers have gone, but too late now.

  Or Platner could work with an enduring principle of American life: Redemption. If he can make this into a redeemer campaign, it could all play out well for him. I think he’s already trying, so can he make it fly?

  In any case, President Trump has endorsed Senator Collins. Another cross for her to bear.

• In South Carolina, the 9 June primary election yielded incumbent Senator Graham (R), with only 56.8% of the Republican votes, and Annie Andrews, with 61.5% of the Democratic votes. While the Senator’s results may indicate the primary voters are restive, I doubt that puts Graham in the troubled category. It’s still a walk for Graham. 

  Although his frenzied spending remains a puzzle.

• Last time I saw a poll for the Hudson / Moore primary runoff in Alabama, unknown pollster co/efficient gave Rep Moore a nine point advantage, and that poll was released on 6 June. Now a poll released by unknown pollster Strategy Management on 9 June gives Hudson a 5 point lead, 42% – 37%. Yes, predicting elections has become difficult, but biased polling is a thing – and some biases are bought, and I don’t know all of the, ah, vendors with bias for sale.
• Any poll in Idaho is a miracle, so I don’t care if I’ve never heard of Peak Insights … oh, I have. Once. In 2024. Unrated. In Idaho’s Senate race, they give incumbent Senator Risch (R) a 55% – 15% lead over David Roth (D), and that’s not a typo. In the name recognition race, Senator Risch is familiar to 85% of the surveyed, while only 39% had heard of Mr Roth. That’s not a winning strategy for Mr Roth.
• In the Michigan race, Rep Stevens (D) is now sporting a brand new sexy endorsement from Senator and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D). Polls are not scarce, but just insert the word respectable and they scatter like ducks at the sight of a hunting dog.
• The Georgia primary election is imminent and President Trump is hungry for glory:
  

  President Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Mike Collins (R-Georgia) early Sunday[14 June,] ahead of Tuesday’s runoff in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary, wading into a race that could determine control of the chamber this fall.

  “Mike is strongly supported by the most Highly Respected MAGA Patriots in Georgia and beyond,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, touting his alignment with Collins on a number of policies. “He is a WARRIOR and WINNER!“ [WaPo]

  I cannot help but note if Collins was so fabulous, Trump would have endorsed him weeks ago.

• Last-term Senator McConnell (R) of Kentucky, whose current term ends on the Senate’s Inauguration Day early next year, is in the hospital, reason not given.
• The next set of Senate primaries is 16 June, and consist of Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Colorado is a week later.

REVISION, REVISION …

I’m moving Maine (R) from likely to flip to unlikely to flip but possible.

I hope this holds together:

Trump and Iran reach agreement that includes opening Strait of Hormuz [CNN, sub required]

Trump has been nattering on about cease-fire for months now, so there has to be doubt.

But now the two sides will jockey about and test each other. And, of course, Israel is independent of the United States, and PM Netanyahu has his own set of motivations, which does not seem to include pursuing military glory so much as keeping Israel in a position where it cannot pursue his prosecution on corruption charges.

Israel may mess this up for Trump.

Note that this sounds like a primitive approach to a lasting peace, because there’s no third party providing monitoring guarantees. Of course, who would Iran’s government trust? Regardless, this may be unstable and short-lived, because President Trump has been utterly humiliated.

I project he’ll be hooting about his profound victory, rather than resigning as he should. Amateurs, tasting power, rarely relinquish it, believing it brings them respectability, even as it reveals them to be failures.

This may cause an uproar:

A local court in Germany has made a landmark ruling that could significantly impact the operation of search engines and AI chatbots worldwide. The Munich Regional Court has determined that Google is liable for false statements generated by its AI Overviews feature. This ruling compels Google to take responsibility for preventing the circulation of inaccurate claims through its search engine.

The case originated when two publishers found that Google’s AI-generated summaries linked them to dubious business practices and scams, without any factual basis. These publishers sent a cease-and-desist letter to Google earlier in the year. However, Google refuted the accusations, arguing that its AI tool provides warnings that the information may be erroneous and should be independently verified.

The court’s analysis showed that Google’s AI synthesized information from various sources, combining it in a way that falsely associated the plaintiffs with illicit activities. Unlike traditional search engines that merely list links, Google’s AI tool created “independent, new, and substantial statements” based on misinterpreted data. [IT Magazine]

When a service collides with individual reputational concerns, when it spreads falsehoods, which is more important, this sometimes-wrong service, or the reputation?

The nature of truth and associated questions, such as epistemology, has challenged philosophers for millenia, and scientists wrestling with data collection, along with baffling cause & effect scenarios such as placebos and nocebos, for centuries. Distinguishing a measurement from someone jiggling the probe is sometimes a difficult business, for example.

Google is providing a generative AI service, which means they’ve processed the content of some part of the Web and use that to generate their service contents. It should  go without saying that the Web isn’t trustworthy as a general rule, and even trusty parts are sometimes temporarily corrupted. Does Google’s quest for yet larger profits adequate justification for putting folks’ reputations at risk, for distributing fallacious information for possibly critical services?

Or is this an early incident in the fall of the generative AI services?

Epiphragm:

An epiphragm (from the Ancient Greek ἐπί, epi ” upon, on, over ” and φράγμα, -phrágma “fence”) is a temporary structure which can be created by many species of shelled, air-breathing land snails, terrestrial pulmonate gastropod mollusks. It can also be created by freshwater snails when temporary pools dry up.

In most species, the epiphragm is made of dried mucus, and although it is elastic, it is fairly easily torn when forcibly removing a snail from its substrate. In a few species, the epiphragm is thick and quite rigid, being reinforced with calcium carbonate. This kind of epiphragm is very strong and may be difficult to break. [Wikipedia]

Survival strategies. Noted in this Animalogic video, The 13 Animals With The Most Extreme Sleep Behaviours:

Erick Erickson continues to discover that he backed, well, a clown …

It is Obamaesque to think one can negotiate with a terrorist regime that is premised on bringing about the apocalypse. The Vice President claims the Trump Administration is dealing with both moderates and hardliners. The definition of a moderate in Iran is one who wants to nuke Israel tomorrow, instead of today.

The President of the United States chose to engage Iran. It dealt a serious blow. But instead of dealing a knock out blow, the President ordered Israel to pull its punches. We have now harmed our relationships with our Middle Eastern allies who depend on us for protection. The situation is now more unstable than before the war began and it is all because of a single person who swears he’ll get a deal any day now.

Erickson is, to his credit, being honest, but I think his real shortcoming is the set of false or unproven assumptions from which he operates. For instance, the assumption that his religion automatically maps to good and Islam to bad has a collection of knock-on conclusions that are sometimes not fulfilled by reality.

Similar remarks apply to an Iranian government that is entangled in questions of clinging to positions of social prestige. And that applies back to us.

Yes, this is unsurprising, but to accept it and not explore alternate explanations is a mistake. For example, assuming the Iranian government, a large entity, is evil will lead to expectations which will remain unfulfilled; but if we accept a common-sense proposition that they’re doing their best to care for what they consider important, just as we do, then our expectations will come closer to reality. We can guess they’re operating from assumptions a millenia out of date, we can assume they’re trying to follow the rules issued by a divinity long, long ago.

Just as some of us still do today.

I’m mostly avoiding detail here due to my continuing surgical recovery, but I must say: I violently reject Erickson’s first remark. By all accounts I’ve read, the Iran deal was considered an ongoing success, as nuclear weapons were not under development and, more importantly, the outraged Iranian hardliners were losing credibility. Whether it would have continued to be successful is moot, of course.

But that does bring up President Trump, who destroyed the JCPOA. Since he’s Party leader, Republicans generally are hesitant to criticize him, and while Erickson has offered the occasional criticism, his cited post is a step towards acknowledging President Trump has a mental illness, perhaps pathological narcissism and dementia, along with a fourth-rate understanding of how politics really works. What we see is near-childish grasping of the visible signs of governmental greatness, such as monumental and imposing buildings, military victories, and dominance over others; these are signposts of the illness he may have.

He is fortunate to fail, honestly, as success might cost him more than he can imagine, from conviction as a war criminal to the humiliating deconstruction of monumental mementos, which are desired by no one but him and his coterie.

I’ll leave it at that out of necessity.

Rep Nehls (R-TX) is ambitious for an award and, no doubt, so much more:

Nehls: Donald Trump is the best thing to happen to this country in a hundred years. He was born a very special baby. I bet the doctors said, “I can tell this is a very special baby.”

I suppose he could be joshin’ the reporter, but the Republicans are lunatic enough that I doubt it. I think Nehls is either terrified of being primaried, or jonesing for a promotion into the Administration.

Fedsurrection:

Etymology

Blend of fed (“federal agent”) +‎ insurrection, popularized by American right-wing politicians Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz.

Noun

fedsurrection (plural fedsurrections)

1. (politics, derogatory) the January 6 United States Capitol attack

Usage notes

• This word alludes to a conspiracy theory that a large number of federal agents took part in an insurrection. [Wiktionary]

Noted in “Jan. 6 rioter targeted by ‘fedsurrection’ conspiracy theories gets 8 years in prison,” Ryan J. Reilly, NBC News:

Assistant U.S. Attorney Rebekah Lederer said Alam’s fellow rioters had made him “a scapegoat,” noting that they tried to label him “antifa” or claim he was part of the “fedsurrection,” the conspiracy theory that the Jan. 6 attack was a setup driven by undercover law enforcement entities.

I was a bit alarmed to see Trump advisor try to slip a problem by:

It appears Mr Pulte failed the hurdle as CNN is claiming Jay Clayton (R) is the nominee for Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He doesn’t seem qualified for the post, but I’ll leave it to those with the time and a working right hand to confirm that. I think it’s interesting that Pulte didn’t get the nod, showing that Trump can be influenced by resolute Republicans and Democrats, and wanted FISA more than Pulte.

But will it work? Clayton will be beholden to Trump, because that’s how a chronically guilty man works, but will Clayton be incompetent as well? Will he be worse than Pulte was projected to be?

Before the overnight storm:

From my Arts Editor.

When spa-ing is overdone.