Category Archives: Uncategorized

My, the silt has accumulated quickly.

“I Didn’t Mean It When I Said …”

WaPo has a report on an unsurprising, but risky, change in Republican strategy for some House members, a change that can be anticipated to appear in Senate races, and in fact already has …

If I’m to believe Ryan Hall, Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 hurricane forecast to impact the Tampa Bay, FL area on Wednesday, went from a disorganized mess in the Gulf of Mexico to a tightly organized, laser-like monster of a storm in just a couple of days, not forecast until then, when most hurricanes can be foreseen a couple of weeks out.

This is following Hurricane Helene, which devastated the Carolinas and provoked Erick Erickson into a barking madness. That was just last week.

This following days, months, and years of heat records for the entire world, during which Australia burned and heat waves affected most of the planet, and polar ice noticeably thinned and decreased.

Can this be considered convincing evidence that climate change is real, is human-originated, will not be resolved by any Divinity, and the cost of doing so just keeps going up the more we screw around arguing the matter?

Or is this how humanity exits stage left, screaming, pointing fingers, and inelegantly proclaiming innocence, as if there’ll be something to receive such self-important proclamations?

The reality of being a content-generator.

As a very long-time user of social media, it’s a necessity, in my opinion, to stop and think about any hidden agendas those writers – let’s not call them content-generators, eh? – you’re reading, that you don’t know on a personal level, may hold. Why? Let Senator Kelly (D-AZ), retired American astronaut, and retired American Navy Captain, tell you:

Senate Intelligence Committee member Mark Kelly warns of a “huge” misinformation campaign by foreign actors. After hearing from the FBI, DNI, and NSA, Kelly estimates that 20%-30% of the political content and comments on social media are generated by Russia, Iran, and China. pic.twitter.com/98Vwb44TWI

— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) October 6, 2024

Senate Intelligence Committee member Mark Kelly warns of a “huge” misinformation campaign by foreign actors. After hearing from the FBI, DNI, and NSA, Kelly estimates that 20%-30% of the political content and comments on social media are generated by Russia, Iran, and China.

20-30% of political comment and contents is generated by our international adversaries? People who are not making honest arguments, providing factual information, discussing in proper American spirit – instead, poisoning the spirit of old-fashioned American discussion.

My readers, do you pause to consider this possibility before stepping into a discussion?

The Bob’s Burgers Movie (2022) is, essentially, and perhaps inevitably, a longer version of a Bob’s Burgers episode, but with better art and, if you pay attention to the characters, deeper character development.

And that’s about all I have to say, really. If you like the TV series, you’ll enjoy the movie, and if you don’t like nor watch the series, then the movie will make some sense, but quite a few references won’t.

And that’s OK. Enjoy.

But not by me.

We’ve taken to watching Ryan Hall, via YouTube, to get a view on the national weather scene, which can be important for anyone east of the Rockies.

Today, prior to his discussion of Milton, a Tropical Storm Cat 1 Hurricane that came together far more quickly than anyone predicted and is menacing Tampa, maybe, Hall did a nice PSA on the dangers of the Internet, and I rather liked it.

If you’ve not heard of Hall, give him a look.

Patagium:

The patagium (pl.: patagia) is a membranous body part that assists an animal in obtaining lift when gliding or flying. The structure is found in extant and extinct groups of flying and gliding animals including bats, birds, some dromaeosaurs, pterosaurs, gliding mammals, some flying lizards, and flying frogs. The patagium that stretches between an animal’s hind limbs is called the uropatagium (especially in bats) or the interfemoral membrane. [Wikipedia]

Goodness. That’s new. Noted in “The Colugo Looks Like a Cross Between a Bat and a Monkey, But Is Neither,” Joshua Rapp Learn, Discover:

Colugos can’t fly. Instead, they glide through the forest using a thin gliding membrane that covers their bodies – also known as a patagium. This membrane stretches from their neck down to the two sides of their tail, looking a little like a human in a wingsuit when they stretch it out and set sail on the winds.

If I were a Christian myself, I’d have to ask if Erick Erickson really thinks he’s a Christian after reading this:

A lot of people who think the government is a mess are upset that it has been slow to respond to Helene. Of course it has. What did you expect?

In fact, it was FIVE DAYS after the storm struck that Joe Biden really mobilized the government. The Southern Baptist Convention was already on the ground while the flood waters were still raging.

The government is not going to help you.

You think FEMA is a mess? You’re damn right it is.

After all, he’s not in a position to really evaluate. Indeed, it seems like he’s repeating the propaganda he’s been instructed to disseminate. Meanwhile, from CNN/Politics,

Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said at a Tuesday press conference that federal assistance had “been superb,” noting that Biden and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had both called and told him to let them know whatever the state needed. McMaster added that the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Deanne Criswell, had also called. He said, “So we’re getting assistance, and we’re asking for everything we need.”

Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin said at a Monday press conference, “I’m incredibly appreciative of the rapid response and the cooperation from the federal team at FEMA.” He specifically thanked Biden, among others, in a press release the day prior.

Republican Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee said at a Wednesday press conference that the response to his emergency declaration “was quick from the federal government,” adding there was “a fast turnaround, frankly,” in making the state eligible for some federal reimbursements.

At a Tuesday press conference, Lee spoke of a “rush” of officials “from the federal to the state to the local, the local emergency management agencies, local county mayors with tears in their eyes out there serving their people. There is a great deal of hope when you see what is behind the effort, the coordinated effort, in this community to begin to rebuild.”

Once again, the people up against the wall vociferously disagree with the guy relaxing in his radio studio.

But there’s a bit more to this than just pointing out Republican mendacity and misrepresentations, again. Erickson’s penultimate paragraph:

The government will not save us. FEMA will not save us. We will save each other.

A simple deconstruction highlights an important, unspoken facet of the Republican mindset which is misaligned with our best ideals, and that’s this, which I’ll state through its negative: The government is not alien, it is not the other, it is not the enemy. Despite the literal decades of anti-government propaganda, often by those who wish to take illegal advantage of their fellow Americans, it is none of those things.

In a democracy, in a republic, the government is us. Us, as in we can run for office and help manage and direct the government. Us, as in, with proper qualifications, we can work for the government, from DOT to DOD. When Erickson says, We will save each other, he’s quite right. We will save each other through the agency of the government, as well as through volunteers.

And the rest is just arrogant bullcrap.

The Republican-endorsed (!) candidate for North Carolina’s superintendent of public instruction, Michele Morrow, via WaPo’s Dana Milbank:

Back in February, WaPo published an opinion article by a dude by the name of Travis Meier who is a member of that informal group who hates math, particularly in its abstract form:

There should be a Roadrunner joke here, but it ran away.

How About That Vice President Debate, Hey?

I indulged in malpractice and didn’t watch.

Given Mr Trump’s age and apparent mental difficulties, the debate may be more meaningful for voters than is usual. After all, Vance might be called upon to fill an important role if Trump/Vance wins in November.

But for the Senate races? If you believe voters are more likely to practice Party-line voting, then it matters. If you think voters are willing to split their ballots, then maybe it doesn’t. And if you think independent voters are knowledgeable enough to realize Vance is way out of the mainstream on American values, then this may have not convinced them of the point – but, if Vance does have to take over, another way to foil him is for the Republicans to fall further out of control of the Senate.

But the most important group in this election is the independents, and Politico observes this:

… Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge.

Walz’s strongest ratings came from younger people, particularly those ages 25-34, those with college degrees, and Black and Latino respondents — all key components of the Democratic coalition that powered President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020.

Vance, meanwhile, performed best with people over the age of 55, white voters and those without a college degree.

Which, I think, is as one might expect. The oldsters, moi excluded, lean more towards Trump, while the youngsters lean towards Harris.

The fact that Walz managed to win what he was expected to win, but not more, suggests the debate was about average. And that may not affect Senate races at all.

Who is AtlasIntel?

I’ve not heard of them before, but FiveThirtyEight is giving them a heady rating of 2.7, so, at least historically, they’re nobody to sneeze at.

However, given the results they’ve posted over the last few days, subtract the rating, and I’d say they’re just another conservative pollster skewing their results to keep the customer happy.

How to evaluate them? Keep an eye on the divergence of their results from respectable pollsters’ average. If they drift towards other reputable pollsters, figure they are adjusting models and these are just outliers. No movement relative to other pollsters? Then a determination cannot conclusively be reached until after the election; they may be conservative and skewing, or their models and adjustments are just wrong, or the other pollsters may simply be off and AtlasIntel is ahead of the pack.

For what it’s worth, here’s their website. This sounds like Intimidate the rubes! jargon to me:

Nationally representative polls conducted by AtlasIntel using its proprietary data collection technology and post-stratification algorithms.

But maybe it means something – I am not an expert on polls, stats and probability. I’m just an obsolete software engineer casting an eye over the Senate races without wasting too much … time. Excuse me, gotta run.

And Into The Dust Storm

• Starting a run of AtlasIntel (2.7) results, they believe that Rep Gallego (D-AZ) in Arizona has only a four point lead over Republican challenger and election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), 50%-46%. Note the link doesn’t appear to have Senate-level data; perhaps FiveThirtyEight made a mistake. A four point lead is at serious variance with other respectable pollsters, which range from 6 to 13 point leads. Four is probably on the edge of the margin of error, which might make Arizona Republicans feel a little better about picking Lake as their nominee. InsiderAdvantage (2.0), for comparison, gives Rep Gallego a more substantial 7 point lead, 50%-43%. And very respectable Emerson College (2.9) is having none of this tightening race claim in Arizona, giving Rep Gallego a 52%-41%.
  

  ---

  In the news, Laurie Roberts of azcentral notes the Republicans’ seem frantic to get the Green Party up on the debate stage for the Arizona Senate seat, which happens soon. The strategy seems to be splitting the vote on the left. The Republicans may like Kari Lake, but just about everyone else doesn’t think she has the right stuff, or so says Roberts.

• AtlasIntel (2.7) is either measuring the wrong race or has a major insight into polling as it says former Rep Rogers (R-MI) is beating Rep Slotkin (D-MI) by a substantial margin, 49%-44%, in Michigan, and then round it up to six as well. This is at serious odds with other pollsters, some of whom give Slotkin a double digit lead.And one of those other pollsters is top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0), which is according Rep Slotkin a five point lead, 47%-42%, among likely voters. This pollster has had its own divergences from the pack, not to mention from liberal commentators, but this poll seems entirely plausible. Mitchell Research & Communications (2.4), another respectable pollster, if new to me, is giving Rep Slotkin a 49%-44% lead, which is none too large, but respectable. RMG Research (2.3), which generally has been trending conservative, breaks the mold here: a 49%-43% lead for Rep Slotkin, or six points.
  

  ---

  Down at the other end of the scale is Trafalgar Group (0.7 – and that’s not a typo), known to be aligned with the Republican Party, giving Slotkin and Rogers a tie at 47% apiece. I think I’m mentioning them for the laughs.

• AtlasIntel (2.7) doesn’t hesitate to knock sitting Senators down to size, either. In Nevada, after a run of polls that gave Senator Rosen (D-NV) such a large average lead over Republican Sam Brown (R-NV) that I stopped reporting the Nevada polls, AtlasIntel assesses the Senator a mere two point lead at 48%-46%. That strikes me as trying to haul a rogue dragon out of its cave with a mere silk thread, but we shall see. InsiderAdvantage (2.0) is giving Senator Rosen a lead of 49%-42% for comparison.
• AtlasIntel (2.7) is giving Senator Casey (D-PA) a two point lead over David McCormick (R-PA) in Pennsylvania, 47%-45%, which is not as unbelievable as some of their results, but is still on the far right side of the spectrum. OnMessage (1.1), sponsored by Republican-aligned Sentinel Action Fund, gives the Senator a one point lead at 45%-44%, but this pollster/sponsor pairing is awful if you want plausible results. Another known Republican-partisan pollster is Trafalgar Group (a laughable 0.7 rating, but maybe they’ve gotten … better?). which is measuring the Senator’s lead at 47%-46%. I only mention them so my reader may get a feel for how much … gunk … is flooding the zone. And then there’s Patriot Polling (1.1), new to me, giving the Senator a 51%-48% lead. Let’s finish up old PA with Emerson College (2.9), even if it does seem to be running a little to the right, and its assessment of 47%-45%, which seems out of the general range of respectable ratings in Pennsylvania. About a month from now we’ll find out.
• AtlasIntel (2.7) is still conceding Wisconsin Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a two point lead, 48%-47%, over Eric Hovde (R-WI?), but only because they’ve rounded their numbers up or down. This is another far right side of the spectrum scenario. The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) sees Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading challenger Eric Hovde by a substantial margin, 50%-43%. The gap is even larger with observed right-leaning ActiVote (unrated), 54%-46%, but the implicit conclusion (54+46=100) that there are very few undecideds left in Wisconsin does concern me, especially when The New York Times/Siena College poll suggests 7% of the electorate is undecided. Add in the margin of error of ±4.9 points, and it’s hard to take them seriously. Finally, maybe just for laughs, Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group (0.7 – why do they bother?) also gives the Senator a two point lead of 48%-46%.
  

  ---

  If you’re wondering about Mr Hovde’s dark innuendos concerning the Senator, Bill Lueders of The Bulwark has a response and some of his own innuendos regarding Mr Hovde. Take home paragraph:

  But Baldwin’s greatest advantage is that she is well liked and respected in Wisconsin and known to be a hard worker. In 2023, her campaign tallied, she “attended or hosted nearly 150 community events and meetings with constituents” in 44 of the state’s 72 counties. (It’s unclear how she was able to do this while spending as much time as possible hanging out in a pricey New York condo, all the while regulating entire industries.)

• In Florida, Victory Insights (1.3 – yes, a bit paltry) gives Senator Scott (R-FL) a lead of 45%-44%, or a statistical dead heat, with former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). If Victory Insights was highly rated I’d say Scott was in trouble. They also report that the state constitutional amendments on the ballot supporting abortion rights and marijuana legalization are highly popular. If so, those may push Mucarsel-Powell over the top. That is, if Scott and Mucarsel-Powell are still running a close race.
  

  ---

  Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for known Democrats-aligned Clean and Prosperous America, has a similar result for the Senate race, with Senator Scott leading 44%-43%. Given the poor pollster rating and the known bias of the sponsor, it’s difficult to give it much weight.Anchoring the other side of the quality and political spectrum, RMG Research (2.3, but take that with a grain of salt) gives Senator Scott a luxurious lead, 50%-44%. And, yes, the press release includes … was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen … I hope you like salt.

• In Ohio, The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Senator Brown (D-OH) a small lead of 47%-43% over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH). The Senator needs to hoof it a bit more. Note that the previous Ohio update had RMG Research (2.3) giving Moreno a two point lead. A 5-6 point swing is unlikely, so I have to wonder about RMG Research. Again.
• Texas Democratic partisans can continue to hope, as Public Policy Polling (1.4), working for known Democrats-aligned Clean and Prosperous America (CPA), see Senator Cruz’ (R-TX) lead down to two points, 45%-43%. Or they can conclude CPA is skewing the results of a weak pollster, depending on their level of cynicism. On the other end of this rope is unrated ActiVote, observed leaning rightwards, giving the Senator a larger lead of five points, 52%-48% (insert a song about “rounding” to a C&W tune here).
  

  ---

  RMG Research (2.3) is giving Senator Cruz a three point, 50%-47%, over Rep Allred. If RMG Research is skewing its data analysis, this race may be tighter than advertised.

  ---

  However, before indulging your cynical side, dear reader, consider this interview with Senator Cruz on right-wing cable news source Newsmax. It smacks of panic. Cruz may be wondering if the Republican message has become stale with Texas voters, by which I mean they may have come to realize it’s the message of grifters. Larger and larger applications of money may be insufficient to his needs.

• In lightly polled Missouri there’s what I consider to be an anomalous polling result: observed right-leaning ActiVote (unrated) is giving Senator Hawley (R-MO) the lead, but it’s only 54%-46%, or 8 points. Add in the ±4.9 point margin of error (or average expected error as ActiVote calls it), and then adjust for the possible skew of an apparent Republican-aligned pollster, and this race may have suddenly tightened up tremendously, as I speculated might happen in my last entry concerning Missouri. Or it may not. We need a high quality pollster to visit Missouri, check out the restaurants, etc.
• Speaking of, I’d sure love to have a good poll of Mississippi. Just sayin’.
• Is this shock turning into farce? Last time I mentioned Nebraska’s Fischer (R-NE, incumbent) vs Osborn (I-NE) contest, I said it’s the biggest shock of this campaign. But now we’re approaching farce territory as The Bullfinch Group, which is unknown and unrated, has a poll, sponsored by The Independent Center, giving Mr Osborn a 47%-42% lead over Senator Fischer. The last respectable poll, from SurveyUSA (2.8), gave Osborn a one point lead, a shock in what Republicans should have considered a safe race. Now I’m to believe it’s a five point lead?
  

  ---

  I think it’s best to neither believe nor disbelieve, but wait for a better pollster to do a poll. The pollster is unknown, and it’s a good bet the sponsor would like to see this result. It’s best to recognize the ambiguity of the situation.

  ---

  That said, I have to say I was gobsmacked that Chris Hayes, handed the chance to comment on the race that’s surprising him the most by Stephen Colbert the night of the VP Debate, picked the Texas Senate race. Sure, it’s important. It’d be a solid blow to a Texas Republican Party riddled with corrupt, or at least weak-willed, members (see TX AG Ken Paxton). It’d suggest that Texas is wavering. But the same could be said for Senator Scott (R-FL).

  ---

  But the real surprise, if it holds together, is the Nebraska race. No one, besides Osborn and maybe his team, saw this coming. Nebraska Republicans losing their grip on one of their Nebraska seats, with an incumbency advantage on top of that, will rattle some teeth loose.

• Only to be polite: Lake Research Partners (1.2) has Senator Cramer’s (R-ND) lead over Katrina Christiansen (D-ND) in North Dakota down to nine points, 49%-40%, in a poll I must have missed – it’s a bit old (Sept. 23-26). The verbiage on that report suggests it may have been sponsored by Christiansen, too. A more recent poll by WPA Intelligence (1.7) is much less encouraging, as Senator Cramer’s lead is 22 points at 51%-29%. Don’t take this entry too seriously, as I’m unconvinced Christiansen has a chance. Maybe a big pollster needs a vacation trip on the prairie to clarify the situation.

And The Monster Goes Swimming Down The Estuary

Anything to say? Bon Voyage? North Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming remain safe for Republicans? Don’t get sunburn?

I don’t normally republish Letters to the Editor of other publications, but this one is important enough to break that guideline. This is in WaPo, from a resident of Springfield, Ohio, which is the place cited by Mr. Trump and his running mate, Senator Vance (R-OH), claiming illegal immigrants have overrun the city and are eating cats and dogs, which has been called out as foul lies by the Mayor, who is Republican, and other officials. This is a partial quote:

You may have heard about dockworkers striking on the East and Gulf Coasts. The strike is about both wages/benefits and replacement of jobs by automation. On the latter subject, I thought this was interesting:

Traduce:

to speak maliciously and falsely of; slander; defame:
to traduce someone’s character. [Dictionary.com]

I may have seen traduce once, or even twice, before, but I fear I was ignorant of its meaning until moments ago. Noted in “THE CYBER SLEUTH,” Geraldine Brooks, WaPo:

The next time a politician or a pundit traduces the IRS, or JD Vance suggests firing half the civil service and putting in “our people,” consider whether a system that filled out its ranks with a new batch of political loyalists every four years would have the expertise of these dedicated, lifelong civil servants.

The far-right extremists must be feeling a bit desperate. The pollsters associated with the right are, from my observations, trying to skew their results such that swayable members of the electorate are convinced the herd is heading rightward; possibly even a well-rated pollster named AtlasIntel (2.7/3 by FiveThirtyEight) is issuing results that are not congruent with other respected pollsters, and are a fair approximation of far-right dreams.

And then there’s the response to Hurricane Helene. Erick Erickson is doing his damndest to scorn the Federal response in two posts, and I think he may be taken as an exemplar of what’s going on among the conspiracy theorists. First, from a come-on for his radio show:

The generation of government bureaucrats that followed witnessed their commitment firsthand and experienced the rise and fall of the Soviet Union. However, just like a third-generation business owner typically drives the business in the ground, this post-WWII third-generation government bureaucrat has taken for granted the competencies of their predecessors because that’s all they’ve ever known.

The lack of government competency in recent years has created a crisis-level deficit in institutional trust. The result is that a growing number of people are willfully falling for the latest conspiracy theory that tickles their ears.

It likens itself to a More in sorrow than anger message, but make no mistake: this is, in part, once again about weakening faith in government, the government that conservatives loath.

Right up until they need it. Right up until the conmen and grifters are caught out.

In his second post, Erickson goes for the Full of scorn position, attacking the bugaboo of the conservatives these days: President Biden.

Now, Joe Biden is at the beach.

People are dying in the mountains of North Carolina and Joe Biden can’t even be bothered to get off the beach and back to the White House. He claims he’s working the phones.

At times like this, it matters as much that Presidents look like they’re engaged, not just that they are engaged. Hanging out on the beach does not look very engaged.

For Democrats, this is a swing state with a Republican gubernatorial candidate in scandal. They could win it. But the President embracing the salt life as some people are just trying to stay alive is going to resonate. The pictures will matter. Yes, the optics matter.

Source: Wikipedia.

Ummmmm, no. Optics do matter to some small extent, sure, but it matters even more that the response be effective, now doesn’t it? Remember MISSION ACCOMPLISHED? Many may not, as that was more than twenty years ago, even as infamous as it turned out to be. Here’s then-President George W. Bush speaking under a big banner with the above message on it:

THE PRESIDENT: Thank you all very much. Admiral Kelly, Captain Card, officers and sailors of the USS Abraham Lincoln, my fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. (Applause.) And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country.

In this battle, we have fought for the cause of liberty, and for the peace of the world. Our nation and our coalition are proud of this accomplishment — yet, it is you, the members of the United States military, who achieved it. Your courage, your willingness to face danger for your country and for each other, made this day possible. Because of you, our nation is more secure. Because of you, the tyrant has fallen, and Iraq is free. [whitehouse.gov]

That speech was given May 1, 2003; the war continued onwards for a number of years, victory ever questionable, leading eventually to the American dishonor at Abu Ghraib. The optics were great, right up until the rift between desire and reality became gapingly apparent. Nowadays, Republicans acknowledge the Administration of George W. Bush only because there is no other choice that doesn’t make them a laughingstock. Bush demonstrated the mistake of letting Marketing and Branding run a country, rather than being a tool in the toolbox.

The greatest lesson here was to put forth the best effort, and once that’s done go out and advertise it. Biden says he’s working the phones? That’s what he should be doing.

Erickson’s problem? Well, I suspect his herd of conservatives, in the face of Robinson of North Carolina, Gaetz, Greene, and, of course, Trump, is dispersing. Not to mention, and as he references, the disaster of the response to Hurricane Katrina, and the press coverage of same, was one big step down the path of disaster and incompetence for a far-right that likes to fantasize that it has all the answers and God on its side. It had to sting when Bush and his incompetent minions blundered mightily in its response to Hurricane Katrina, drawing the wrath of American independents.

But as I was saying, there’s a shitstorm and the responses to it. Professor Richardson is countering the right-wing punditocracy with this message:

Today, almost a hundred years later, the destruction from Hurricane Helene continues to mount. At least 128 people have died in six states, and many more remain unaccounted for. Roads remain closed, and power is still off for more than 2 million people. In remarks to reporters today, President Joe Biden called the damage “stunning” and explained that the federal government is providing all the support it can. He noted that federal help was on the ground before the storm and when asked if there were more the government could be doing, answered no and explained that the administration had “preplanned a significant amount of it, even though they…hadn’t asked for it yet.” …

And yet, the hurricane has become the latest topic of disinformation for MAGA Republicans. Social media today is full of accounts claiming that the federal government is not responding to the crisis in western North Carolina because it prefers to spend money in Ukraine and on undocumented immigrants. Newsmax host Todd Starnes claimed that FEMA’s “top priority is not disaster relief” but to push diversity, equity and inclusion. “So, unless you’ve got your preferred pronouns spraypainted on the side of your submerged house—you won’t get a penny from Uncle Sam. Western North Carolina is just too Conservative and too Caucasian for FEMA to care.” The House Judiciary Committee posted that “Joe Biden was at the beach.”

These posts echo Russian disinformation, and Trump was on board with it. Touring Valdosta, Georgia, today, as a private citizen where people are still without power amidst the devastation, Trump said he had spoken to Elon Musk to get his Starlink satellites into North Carolina; FEMA has already provided 40 of the systems to North Carolina. He claimed that Georgia governor Brian Kemp is “having a hard time getting the president on the phone. They’re being very non-responsive.”

Sadly for Mr Trump…

Kemp himself told reporters that Biden had called yesterday. “And he just said, ‘Hey, what do you need?’” Kemp told him, “We got what we need, we’ll work through the federal process. He offered that if there’s other things that we need just to call him directly, which I appreciate that.” South Carolina governor Henry McMaster, a Republican, called it “a great team effort…the federal government is helping us well, they’re embedded with us. There is no asset out there that we haven’t already accessed.”

And there are more examples, in Professor Richardson’s post, of Republican elected officials expressing positive sentiments towards President Biden and Federal agencies helping in a time of need.

This is known as Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.

That’s a serious point, isn’t it? The folks who are on the spot, who know what’s going on and are responsible, are telling quite a differing tale compared to that of pundits, social influencers, and candidates for office: all members of a category that benefits from conservative anger, whether or not it’s justified. They just go out and generate it, and collect their paychecks afterwards.

It’s just like Alex Jones and his bizarrely popular and shameful theories about the Sandy Hook massacre. Money money money money. God doesn’t figure into it, and I say that as skeptic and agnostic.

There is a certainly role for evaluation of the emergency response, what is often called a post-mortem. But it’s ghoulish and dishonest to disregard the best information in favor of trying to stir up conservatives who may end up paying a very high price if they buy into the false information and bad evaluations dispensed by the pundits. If you’re a conservative, it’s Kemp who is being honest, not Trump, not Erickson.

They just want power.

What a chance for schadenfreude:

A Bala Cynwyd [, Pennsylvania] voter got a detailed letter this week from the made-up Pennsylvania Congressional Office of Immigration Affairs notifying her that her household had been selected to house five migrant refugees.

No office exists, nor does such a government-mandated housing program, but the letter, doctored to look like an official government document, provided specific details designed to mislead someone less attuned to a scam — and laid the blame for the fake program at the feet of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris during a heated and close election in which immigration has increasingly become a focal point. [The Philadelphia Inquirer]

I’d frame that letter, which I would hope was only one page, and put it prominently on the wall. Next to it I’d place another frame, but, instead of a picture I’d have the words, big & readable,

MUG SHOT
GOES
HERE

And if the half-wit pulling this stunt is ever caught – and my guess is the operative adjective will be easily – then I’d obtain a copy of said mug shot and put it up on the wall.

Giggling way too much.

The word anorak sparked some disagreement from readers:

I thought it was a waterproof jacket, a word more commonly used in the northeast than elsewhere in American [sic].

And another:

Despite what the esteemed intelligencia on Wikipedia might say, if you search online for anorak, you get coats/jackets. Getting to dictionary definitions, I see both, but the coat/jacket definition consistently comes first.

And not being located in Britain, I can’t really say if Wikipedia is just wrong, or if en_en and en_us are diverging, and in a thousand years we’ll be mutually incomprehensible.

From a subscriber-only come-on of Erick Erickson:

The Republicans have a very good chance of winning control of the United States Senate despite their very best efforts to lose it. Last month at The Gathering, Mitch McConnell told me on stage that this is the most favorable map he has ever seen. He’s exactly right.

Republicans control 49 seats and are not meaningfully at risk of losing any incumbents this cycle. This means that Democrats are forced to defend incumbents in the seven most vulnerable seats. By flipping West Virginia with the retirement of Manchin, the worst case scenario is a 50-50 tied Senate with control belonging to whichever party is in the White House.

But Democrats are convinced that Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas are viable pick-up seats for them. As a result of learning nothing from 2018, they are redirecting resources to pursue races they have no chance of winning.

Six months ago I would have nodded in agreement. But apparently Erickson’s reading, and taking seriously, his side’s propaganda concerning such matters as climate change (Florida residents might be pointing at Beryl and Helene), abortion, and, frankly, corruption. Sorry, Senator Scott (R-FL). That’s a mistake.

In his efforts to keep his herd together, I fear Erickson is overstating the case for both Senators Cruz (R-TX) and Scott, who are clearly in serious jeapardy, and does not even recognize that Senator Fischer (R-NE) seems to be in a tie with challenger David Osborn (I-NE), who probably would not caucus with the Senate Republicans.

Or maybe he mentions Fischer behind the paywall.

On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).

In any case, this is a pattern for Erickson – express strong confidence in Republican candidates, such as Loeffler, Perdue, Trump, and Walker, watch them go down in flames, and analyze their faults, without analyzing his own mistakes that led him down the path of misplaced confidence. That’s what I’m seeing here: he’s convinced himself of the moral depravity of the Democrats without recognizing Cruz’s reputation as the most hated Senator in the Senate, Scott’s reputation for corruption in the private sector and his willingness to attack Republican leaders, not to mention his failure as a leader of Senate reelection efforts in the 2022, and Fischer? To be honest, I’m not sure if it’s simply her positions that repel Nebraskan voters, or if there’s more to it.

But I believe there’s a chance that all three incumbents may lose. With the loss of the West Virginia seat, Democrats would net two seats.

And Erickson would look bad. Again.

No, I’ve deduced that you didn’t do it, Yank. You didn’t do nuthin’.

Miss Willoughby and the Haunted Bookshop (2021) is a competent murder mystery involving an orphan heiress, Miss Willoughby, living in a pile who is occasionally called upon to solve mysteries. This particular mystery involves a possible supernatural link, and …

… It’s all bloody boring.

I enjoy murder mysteries, but, truth be told, they swarm the bookshelves like locusts. Why? Because they’re not that hard to write, presumably. A good murder mystery really needs something unusual: a neglected theme, a plot twist, something that intrigues the imagination. Agatha Christie mocked the British upper classes, bringing the ethereal creatures of society down to the same level as the barkeep who drunkenly married the wrong woman. Christie was so good at it that, if you weren’t British, you didn’t even realize it unless some college prof told you, or you lived to advanced years and thought about it.

Laurel Hamilton’s Anita Blake series centers around a detective dealing with murderous supernatural creatures with whom she has the occasional sexual attraction. Supernatural adds an interesting twist to the investigations, and the sexual attractions keep the readers coming back.

But Miss Willoughby just doesn’t bring any intriguing twists out to consider. Sure, there’s the supernatural possibilities, but they’re not really well-explored. The sniffing at the upper classes has already been done to death, so to speak. Picking out obscure clues? Mr Holmes has been there. Hey, why has this butler hung around? Oh, we’re not exploring that avenue, eh? Too bad, the lessons implicit could have been useful for informing the story.

In the end, it’s just dull and I fear the acting, as competent as it was, was not that enthralling. Perhaps for younger views – say, those less than forty – this would be a fine and even memorable movie. But it didn’t work for me.

It’s been an avalanche … of Legos … cartwheeling and screaming … about the last report.

Speaking of RMG Research

Napolitan News Service sponsors RMG Research polls. I just ran across this in a Napolitan News Service report:

This Napolitan News Service survey of 781 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 18-20, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc.

First, I really don’t trust online surveys. Maybe the technology has improved, but getting a random sample of honest answers, already a difficult task, sounds even harder when it’s all online and features a bevy of malicious trolls.

Second, Scott Rasmussen is of Rasmussen Reports, and Rasmussen Reports is not rated by FiveThirtyEight. They are listed, but only in the section reserved for pollsters whose performance is so godawful that they’re not worth rating.

So keep that in mind in the future when seeing RMG Research, despite their rating of 2.3/3.

Speaking of Bias

When I state a pollster is known to lean left or right, I generally mean someone in the media has stated so. Most often it’s FiveThirtyEight, which is, I hope, working from solid numbers of previous elections to deduce a result leading to that statement.

When I say observed to lean, I mean that my impression of some of some pollster’s results is that they lean one way or the other in that they diverge from the general range of numbers. This doesn’t address the question of deliberate skew, as that’s a bit impossible in the light – or dark – of a lack of access to “the truth”. Maybe the pollster in question, such as Morning Consult (1.9) or unrated ActiVote, has a better grip on reality than do highly rated pollsters.

Nor does a lean skew all of a pollster’s results. Think deceit, a desire not to be identified as skewing results because they’re trying to persuade voters that the herd is over there instead of over here. After all, despite its irrelevance to democracy, people do want to be part of the majority, and some will change their vote, without reference to their best judgement, just to be able to say honestly that they voted for a winner.

To be clear, there’s no fidelity to democracy in such actions or even desire, but it does happen and, within the context of the emotional needs of a given person, is even rational.

But it’s not honest.

And Now For The Doxie Racing Numbers

• Michigan remains understandably popular, with four five pollsters gathering numbers and, presumably, espresso at the coffee shops. Suffolk University (2.9) is giving Rep Slotkin (D-MI) only a two point lead, 45%-43%, over former Representative and right-wing extremist Mike Rogers (R-MI), which is a bit surprising for a highly respectable pollster. This is in contrast to the previous Michigan update in which Quinnipiac University (2.8) gave Slotkin a five point lead.Emerson College (2.9) is giving Slotkin a 47%-42% lead, much like QU, which is not as tight but still a little close. Morning Consult (1.9), observed to lean left, seems to be measuring some other race with a 51%-37% score, or a 14 point lead for Slotkin. Finally, on the other end of the scale, Rogers campaign-sponsored Tarrance Group (1.6) has Rogers down by only two at 49%-47%.And, at the last moment, top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) has Slotkin up by five, 47%-42%. Some of these polls have margins larger than the gap between the politicians, rendering them statistical dead heats, but Slotkin being consistently ahead renders her the favorite.
• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) thinks Arizona’s Rep Gallego’s (D-AZ) lead over Kari Lake (R-AZ) for the soon-to-be open Senate seat is only six at 49%-43%. Has something changed? A Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research / Fox News Poll (2.8) has Gallego up 55%-42%, which is 13 points, and Marist College (2.9) gives Gallego a 54%-44% lead. These are both well ahead TNYT/SC, suggesting the latter are underestimating Gallego’s support in Arizona. Then again, Suffolk University (2.9) is also calling it a very close race with a result of 47%-41%.
• Montana’s Senator Tester (D-MT) may be in trouble as RMG Research (2.3) measures the Senator as behind his challenger, Tim Sheehy (R-MT), 50%-43%. A previous RMG Research poll gave the Senator a five point lead, suggesting a large swing in Montana. Is it believable? See above, where I discuss issues with RMG Research.
• Senator Casey (D-PA) in Pennsylvania has a lead over Republican David McCormick (R-PA?), according to Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (2.8), of 48%-43%, suggesting a tighter race than some recent polls. RMG Research (2.3) has a similar result of 50%-44% for the Senator, while Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) is a little bigger with a 48%-40% result, and Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research / Fox News (2.8) is giving the Senator a 53%-44% lead. From a Fox News perspective:
  

  In the Pennsylvania Senate race, Democratic candidate Bob Casey has a 9-point lead over Republican challenger David McCormick (53% to 44% among both registered and likely voters).  McCormick has narrowed the gap by 4 points since July when he was down by 13 (55-42%).

  But from my perspective of many polls, this is just confirmation that Casey has built a strong lead, and, minus the unexpected, should retain it. I think Fox News is just trying to apply lipstick to an unpalatable result; that previous result they are referencing was an outlier.

• RMG Research (2.3) shows challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) in Ohio ahead of Senator Brown (D-OH), 46%-48%. Will Ohio citizens discharge a known quantity in Brown, free of scandal, for an unqualified Republican who seems to think that it’s unnecessary to present good arguments, and instead just divide the electorate into bite sized pieces? See above, where I discuss issues with RMG Research.

  Also in the right-leaning camp is unknown ActiVote, who gives Moreno a 51%-49% lead. As those numbers add up to 100%, I have to wonder if there’s no undecideds left in Ohio. Seems unlikely. Also, this is disturbing:

  The poll was among 400 likely voters, has an average expected error of 4.9%, and was in the field between August 16, 2024 and September 22, 2024 with a median field date of September 4.

  400 is quite a small sample size for such a large State, leading to that abnormally large expected error, and the lengthy period of data collection is really not encouraging at all, at least to my untrained mind. I’m really having my doubts about ActiVote. Maybe Lowell Center (2.9) should be encouraged to poll Ohio.

  Finally, Top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving the lead to the Senator, albeit not as large as some, with 47%-43%. This I shall trust a bit more, as the variables are considerably smaller, and the results correlate more with other respectable pollsters, with the singular exception of RMG Research.

• In my last update for Maryland I speculated a dash of scandal might make this a tight race, but so far that’s not true: The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement (2.5) is giving County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), who is the alleged perpetrator of the scandal, a 51%-40% lead over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), which is one of the larger leads I’ve seen for this race. Still, WaPo has a comment:
  

  Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate in four decades and President Joe Biden won here by 33 percentage points in 2020. Yet, Hogan’s track record as a pragmatic, two-term governor with an anti-Trump brand — and a history of pulling off a big upset — has kept the race relatively competitive.

  Until the former Governor concedes, I think this is a race.

• Does this make Nebraska even hotter? Candidate Dan Osborn (I-NE) sponsored a poll by SurveyUSA (a more than respectable 2.8 rating) which finds Mr Osborn now leads Senator Fischer (R-NE), 45%-44%. That’s the first lead I’ve seen, and of course is a statistical dead heat. With many pollsters there’d be concern that the pollster is trying to please their sponsor, but SurveyUSA is too highly rated, in my opinion, to make that mistake. This is in contrast with the last poll I saw, which was Global Strategy Group (1.8) sponsored by the group Retire Career Politicians, aligned with the Independent Party, and gave Fischer a one point lead. While one can argue about a single poll, what is inarguable is that the collection of Nebraska polls over time shows Osborn catching up with Fischer, and now with the momentum. This will be a tense place for the next month.
•  
  

  You thought I was kidding? Far Right Extremist.
  (Senator Ricketts (R-NE) On The Issues summary)

  The Nebraska special election to the Senate for the seat of the former Senator Sasse (R-NE), who resigned for another job, also was polled by SurveyUSA, and the Democrats are not happy here: appointed Senator and far-right extremist Pete Ricketts (R-NE) leads challenger Preston Love, Jr (D-NE) 53%-35%. For that matter, Osborn may be endorsed by the Democrats, but he remains an independent.

• In Florida, unknown pollster The Bullfinch Group is giving Senator Scott (R-FL) a small lead of 46%-44% over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). Too bad the pollster is unrated.
• Senator Cruz (R-TX) of Texas has a four point lead, 49%-45%, over Rep Allred (D-TX), according to Emerson College (2.9). The pollster also notes:
  

  Voters were asked if the current abortion law in Texas, which bans abortion after approximately six weeks of pregnancy, is too strict, not strict enough, or about right. A majority of Texas voters (53%) think the current abortion law is too strict, 31% think the law is about right, and 16% think it is not strict enough.

  If Rep Allred can connect with that majority, he may be able to pass Senator Cruz down the stretch.

• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a lead over challenger Eric Hovde (D-WI?) of 50%-43%, conforming to other polls of Wisconsin.
• In New Jersey, Republican candidate Curtis Bashaw (R-NJ) has a new video ad out, which, according to the New Jersey Globe, opens with
  

  “My opponent thinks that because I am a Republican, I fit into this box. Well, good luck trying to define me. I’m a small business owner who built my hotel company budget by budget. I’ve been with my husband for 22 years. I believe our border needs to be secure and I’m pro parent. And yes, I’m pro-choice, and believe that women, not the government, should decide what’s best for them. I’m Curtis Bashaw, and I approve this message because I believe we need to put principle over politics.”

  I doubt Bashaw will beat Democratic candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) for Senator Menendez’s (I-NJ) seat, but this ad functions as a reminder that using sexual preferences as a proxy for political stance is a mistake, a mistake made by both sides. On the right, homosexuality is frantically rejected by religious elements despite the decades long debate that ended, emphatically, with the acceptance of gay marriage and its related Obergefell v. Hodges SCOTUS decision. On the left, the attempted packaging of all the various flavors of sexual preference into the alphabet soup of LGBT…., and then to bind them together as yet another identity with allegiance to the left, betrays their mistaken understanding of reality, and the beleaguered but continued existence of the Log Cabin Republicans group suggests that, despite the zealous, if arbitrary, rejection of homosexuality on the right, conservative political sensibilities are not tied to sexual preferences. When this imaginary tie is finally denied by the Republicans, then we’ll know that they’ve taken another step back to political respectability.

  Mr Bashaw, along with former governor Hogan (R-MD) and a few others I’ve mentioned in these pages and now have forgotten, may and should be the future of the Republican Party, while current elected officials such as Gaetz, Gosar, Green, Boebert, McConnell, Tuberville, as well as the Trump family and many others, should be ejected from the Republican Party, all for the improved health of the United States.

Final Thoughts

Nyah. I’m too young for that.

Attribution science:

A revolution in weather forecasting could soon see warnings of forthcoming heatwaves, storms or other extreme events accompanied by specific information on the role climate change has played in fuelling [sic] them, as meteorologists seek new ways to bring the reality of our warming planet home to the general public.

Key to this idea is the growing field of attribution science, which involves examining extreme weather events after the fact to quantify the impact of climate change. It involves simulating an event twice, first under real-world conditions and then again in a fictional world where there is no human-caused climate change. The difference between those two scenarios reveals the extent to which rising emissions made matters worse. [“Weather forecasts could warn about events made worse by climate change,” Madeleine Cuff, NewScientist (21 September 2024, paywall)]

That’s a new one.

Seen in Newsweek:

Gallego had 54 percent support among lively voters statewide, whilst Lake had 44 percent. With independents, Lake lagged behind on 32 percent compared to Gallego’s 64 percent.

Just a muscle twitch is good enough.

Who? Them? They went that away.

Gimme that hot foot food…

Didn’t I See A Redfield & Wilton Strategies Poll The Other Day?

No, you saw a bunch of them. If you were looking.

I’ve decided to drop them, though, unless something comes up. I am filled with loathing and hesitancy when I see that name. Some of their polls look right, some radically do not, and, quite frankly, GIGO.

So no more incorporation of their results into my thinking.

Here’s The Rest Of The Herd

• In what I consider to be the most dramatic and unexpected race of the season – no, I’m not talking Marbula One – Senator Fischer (R-NE) is still measured as having a meager one point lead in Nebraska, 43%-42%, over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE). The problem for assessors? The pollster/sponsor is
  Global Strategy Group (1.8)/Retire Career Politicians. The latter is listed by FiveThirtyEight as a partisan group aligned with the Independent Party. It’s a red flag when the pollster, #126 in the FiveThirtyEight ratings, is somewhat weak, and the sponsor is partisan and would benefit from the candidate winning.

  That said, even keeping in mind the press release may be misleading, this statement is interesting:

  … after hearing positive biographies of both candidates, Osborn leads 48-40.

  The pair presses on with a clear partisan message that, nevertheless, may be accurate:

  In response to Osborn’s surge, the Fischer campaign has gone up with their first ad in the last week, an entirely negative message that highlights what is currently broken in American politics. Fischer’s main attack is that Osborn does not support Trump, which underscores how she has completely missed the point of Osborn’s independent campaign. Osborn is not supporting either major party candidate for president, he’s focused on fighting for all working people across party lines against political elites and the party bosses who are crippling our country.

  This may be the most exciting race to watch as we approach Voting Day.

• Maryland, widely considered a solid Democratic property, is also experiencing drama as Gov Hogan (R-MD), the former Republican governor who is quite popular, has made it a race despite the fear & loathing of local and national Republican extremists. But the latest bit of news comes from the other side of the ledger:
  

  Angela Alsobrooks, the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Maryland, improperly took advantage of tax breaks she did not qualify for, including one meant for low-income senior citizens, saving thousands of dollars in taxes on two properties she owned in Washington, DC, and in Maryland.

  A CNN review of property records and tax bills shows that for both properties, Alsobrooks claimed for more than a decade a homestead tax exemption that is meant to apply only to someone’s primary residence, violating state and local tax relief requirements.

  She also improperly claimed a senior citizens’ tax break on her Washington property, cutting the tax bill in half. Alsobrooks, 53, never qualified for that tax break, but her grandparents, who owned the property before her, likely did. [CNN/Politics]

  What the Democrats were no doubt hoping would be a non-event is anything but. Alsobrooks’ response?

  A senior adviser for Alsobrooks told CNN that she was unaware of the problem and that her attorneys are working with both Washington and Prince George’s County, Maryland, to resolve the issue.

  Not totally irresponsible, but perhaps a bit two-faced, as she’s “unaware” but her attorneys are working on it with the jurisdictions.

  So, of course, it’s necessary to ask what happens if Hogan wins. Do the Republicans disown him? As I’ve mentioned before, does he move over to the Democrats, or simply unregister from the Republicans? Or will he function as an exemplar for moderate Republicans and independents, implicitly rebuking the extremists currently in control of the Republican Party?

  This may turn out to be the second most exciting race this season.

• Who is Research America? FiveThirtyEight doesn’t know. Should I believe this unknown pollster or their sponsor, University of Mary Washington Center for Leadership & Media Studies, who I’ve never heard of? Should I take seriously their claim that Virginia’s Senator Kaine’s (D-VA) lead over challenger Hung Cao (R-VA) is only six points, 49%-43%?

  Probably not.

• Is Missouri hosting a possible upset of Senator Hawley (R-MO) by challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO)? Until today, I thought the answer was no. But this news report has made me thoughtful:
  

  Marcellus Williams, who spent more than two decades on Missouri’s death row convicted of a 1998 murder that he says he did not commit, died by lethal injection Tuesday evening after a lengthy and complex effort to exonerate him based on DNA testing issues.

  Williams, 55, was pronounced dead at the Potosi Correctional Center in Mineral Point.

  After two last-minute execution reprieves starting almost a decade ago, momentum to reexamine Williams’s decades-old conviction gathered from unlikely sources, including the local prosecutor from the office that convicted him. Williams received an outpouring of support from legal groups such as the Midwest Innocence Project and a member of Congress. The family of the victim in the 1998 St. Louis stabbing came to oppose Williams’s execution. [WaPo]

  I’m very disturbed that Mr. Williams was executed when even the prosecutors had raised doubts. This sounds like a heartless injustice, the sort of thing that stirs up riots and makes people wonder if they’re next. I know that some Republicans regard such doubts as little more than Democratic attempts to foil death sentences. I think such sentiments have even been expressed by conservative SCOTUS justices. But when the prosecutors say they got it wrong, it seems to me that it should be incumbent on elected officials, regardless of party allegiance, to investigate and delay, if necessary, such irremediable sentences.

  Missouri voters may be similarly upset by the Republicans who run and represent Missouri. And take out their anger on them.

• In Pennsylvania, MassINC Polling Group (a very respectable 2.8) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a seven point lead, 49%-42%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a smaller lead of 47%-42%. Morning Consult (1.9) has a larger lead for the Senator of 49%-40%. These results are congruent with other respected pollsters in previous reports. Interestingly, Morning Consult’s sample size is twice that of each of the other two pollsters, but those pollsters are currently rated far ahead of Morning Consult. Has Morning Consult corrected a problem in data gathering?
• Wisconsin experiences the same three probes as Pennsylvania: MassINC Polling Group (2.8) gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a lead of 52%-44% over Republican Eric Hovde (R-WI?), Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a 49%-46% lead, and Morning Consult (1.9) lead for the Senator is 50%-43%. Results like these are common enough for Wisconsin that I expect Senator Baldwin to retain her seat.
• Unknown pollster ActiVote, which certainly seems to lean conservative, is giving challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) a 51%-49% lead in Ohio over Senator Brown (D-OH). Do I take this seriously? Not on its own. Most other polls give Brown a lead.In other news, Oliver Willis on Daily Kos reports a potential faux pas by Mr Moreno:
  

  Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee for the Senate race in Ohio, told an audience on Friday that many women voters are solely focused on abortion rights. Moreno also said it was “crazy” for women over fifty to be concerned over the abortion issue at all.

  If this is true, it betrays a basic intellectual failure on Mr Moreno’s part to understand why humans band together and have governments: to not only gain safety and enjoy rights, but to ensure those rights extend to other members of the group. Uneven distribution on arbitrary basis results in uproar and disruption for the group, because we band together for mutual and equal support.

  Will this become a drag on Mr. Moreno’s campaign? No. It’s an abstract point and will be ignored or, even, looked upon favorably by those who have put individualism on an altar. Individualism is certainly a part of much of American culture, but, like any right or tradition, it has its limits, and when it becomes a danger to American society, it should be a limited tradition. But this is probably too abstract.

  It’s also important to note that Mr Moreno has abdicated on his responsibility to persuade his target audience of the rightness of his arguments. He is fixated on telling them that abortion no longer matters to the older crowd, implicitly, if ignorantly, admitting his arguments lack the moral force he thinks they have.

• The same ActiVote is giving Florida Senator Scott (R-FL) an eight point lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 54%-46%. The likelihood that the deeply unpopular Senator is at 54% strikes me as doubtful. It’s worth noting that ActiVote’s sample size is atypically, among all pollsters, small at 400 voters, and results in a margin of error of ±4.9 points.

  In other news, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele (R-MD), serving in that role back in 2009-2011, is predicting that Florida will go Democratic in the Presidential race this election, which would end Mr Trump’s ambitions. Whether or not that includes Senator Scott’s seat is not addressed.

• Massachusetts finally has polling, and it’s even respectable! University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6) is giving Senator Warren (D-MA) a 58%-32% lead over challenger John Deaton (R-MA), or 26 points, while MassINC Polling Group (2.8) is giving the Senator a similar lead of 56%-35%, or 21 points, over the cryptocurrency advocate.

  I’ll desist from any more Massachusetts reports unless a black swan is reported to be circling.

• Connecticut, too, has received a poll, from the suddenly prolific MassINC Polling Group (2.8), giving Senator Murphy (D-CT) a 51%-35% lead over challenger Matthew Corey (R-CT). I plan not to report any more Connecticut polls unless that bloody black bird appears.
• Texas gets some polling. First, Morning Consult (1.9) is giving Rep Allred (D-TX) a slender lead over Senator Cruz (R-TX) of 45%-44%. Second, Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (unrated) is giving Senator Cruz the lead at 48%-45%. One pollster is unrated, and the other has a rating that is unimpressive: perhaps reasons not to be excited either way. Still, Allred’s team and voters have a reason to cheer, and that may be what they need. Notably,
  

  But the Dallas Democrat still appears to struggle with name identification as 30% of likely voters said they do not know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him.

  Which suggests Allred still has room to grow his share of the vote, while Cruz’ reputation, whatever it might be, is probably cemented with nearly all residents of Texas.

• And a respectable pollster, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (2.6), shows Minnesota’s Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) leading Royce White (R-MN) 51%-40%. This margin is surprisingly small; I expected it to be double that. Margin of error is ±3.5 points.

In Conclusion …

I’ve fallen a ways behind due to feline illness and unexpected visitors, and this post is big enough already, so here’s the big sloppy mess, plumb in your lap. Another update soon enough. I hope you find it useful.

Anorak:

“Anorak” /ˈænəræk/ is a British slang term which refers to a person who has a very strong interest, perhaps obsessive, in niche subjects. This interest may be unacknowledged or not understood by the general public. The term is sometimes used synonymously with “geek” or “nerd“, or the Japanese term “otaku“, albeit referring to different niches. [Wikipedia]

Noted in “Why are rich people so boring?” Rachel Tashjian, WaPo:

We’ve often talked about the hierarchy and allegiance, despite everything, of the Republican Party. The Charlotte Observer notes that the North Carolina Republican Party has taken it to an extreme with their candidate for Governor, senior member, holder of extremist, disgraceful opinion, and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R-NC):

Then there’s the North Carolina Republican Party, which has not only refused to disavow Robinson, but has even gone so far as to openly defend him. In a post on social media, the NCGOP wrote that Robinson “has categorically denied the allegations made by CNN but that won’t stop the Left from trying to demonize him via personal attacks.”

How disappointing that Robinson’s campaign staff appears to have more integrity than Republican leaders who were elected to serve the people of North Carolina.

Yes, most of Robinson’s campaign staff vamoosed when they were informed of Robinson’s alleged faux-pas. But the Party practiced Party discipline, sticking to what passes for their leaders, and now Robinson’s vote total may turn out to be on the order of the size of the Republican Party in North Carolina. He’s already way, way behind.

And, since Mr Trump endorsed Robinson in glowing terms, that Party allegiance may turn North Carolina blue, as they say, as voters move, albeit reluctantly, away from Republicans, and even to the Democrats.

This is the fruit of a toxic team culture, an exemplar of what I’ve predicted for years: Remove and even disdain such requirements as competency, compromise, and experience, whittle down your metrics to how loud someone can scream LOWER TAXES, LESS REGULATION, Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice, ABORTION IS EVIL … and after a while … WOMEN SHOULDN’T VOTE … and more and more, and, surprise surprise, the incompetent extremists rise to the top.

Now it’s up to the independent voters and moderate Republicans to kick the Republican Party out of power, to punish them for using a toxic team culture.