An Unarmed War

Alexander Vorontsov on 38 North summarizes the current situation and ponders the future of the United Nations:

Being in contact with a wide circle of international experts professionally studying Korea, I am assured that I am not the only one frustrated by renewed attempts by the UN, presented as the main agent of justice and peace in the world, to impose a de facto economic embargo on the DPRK, a state with a population of 25 million people; in essence, it is an unarmed war.

If the habit to discriminatorily punish “bad guys,” selected by the “stakeholders” in the UN’s elite at their own will persists, the majority of the ordinary members of the UN General Assembly may rebel and start asking rather sticky questions: if such a practice becomes standard, what will become of the UN itself?

How did we get to this point, using the UN in such a provocative way? In my mind, it is very simple: Washington wants to force Pyongyang to start talks from a position of capitulation, while Pyongyang wants to enter talks from a position of equality. Frankly speaking, this is nothing special or new.

While the popular belief these days is that negotiations with North Korea have never worked, it is important to remember the progress made under the US-North Korea Agreed Framework. For the time the agreement was in place, key components of North Korea’s nuclear weapons infrastructure were irreparably shuttered while the two countries worked toward normalization of relations. Had it been kept in place, it might have found a suitable way to deal with issues of cheating. But its abrupt end made subsequent efforts to negotiate difficult to start, with mistrust high on both sides, leading to the complex and dangerous situation we are in today. In order to get back to negotiations now, which most stakeholders seem to want—conditions for talks would need to be seriously discussed.

The US-North Korea Agreed Framework was signed in 1994 by the Clinton Administration, and foundered in 2003 during the Bush Administration. Will GOP aggression work well with the North Koreans, or will it just piss them off? Hard to say.

What’s Really Under Attack?

As London recovers from another terror attack, it’s worth asking ourselves what those who are directing these attacks are trying to accomplish[1]. While these stabs at the vulnerable citizenry have little direct effect, the real question regards the veiled goals of the directors.

In other words, what do these extremist fear the most from the West, and are therefore trying to change?

Religious extremists, seems to me, always have as their putative goal a societal adherence to the most extreme version of their religious tenets, whether or not they can actually be found in their sacred tomes.

And the Western countries, such as Britain? To lesser and greater extents, they have left such societal rules behind. While I could spend all day enumerating such instances as gay marriage, I’d prefer to abstract it to a rational approach to justice. At one time we used the Biblical rules to run our societies and called them just, but that led to chaos and death; now we try to use reason to define our justice, and if that leads to results that dismay some of our citizens, I must say that most adjust admirably. One example is that of gay marriage, and watching much of society adjust to the idea that our gay members should have the option of marrying those they love has been an inspiration and a pleasure.

But for those who believe in a very strong version of God, the extremists, this is repugnant. Thus, they wish the rule of God, as decreed by the clerics; the West is transforming from the rule of God to the rule of Law[2]. In our particular case, the extremists see their favored ordering of society endangered by the West.

Not through direct attack, necessarily, but through the very existence of those principles of the West.

Why? Because they are attractive. Because they promise peace. They, perhaps even more importantly, demonstrate prosperity.

The Magna Carta, an early attempt at Constitutional Law.
Source: BritRoyals

Speaking abstractly, any principle is a good principle in that it leads, eventually, to a positive outcome for the individual and/or the society in which the individual is embedded; a negative outcome decreases survival and reproductive opportunities, if not directly, then by degrading that society. Sufficient degradation of society by an individual can easily lead to a Pitchforks and Torches ending for the individual pursuing a negative principle (say, I will enrich myself without treating my fellow societal members justly), as his fellows find a way to remove his riches and/or his life.

A set of principles can and should be judged on several metrics. One often ignored is that of robustness, which is to say that as external stressors change, do the principles continue to deliver positive outcomes?

So that was a fairly laborious approach to the question posed earlier in this post, that being (yeah, I almost forgot, too) the goal of those directing these terrorists. I believe they are trying, as with any war, to modify the behaviors of their opponents; in this case, they are trying to subtly modify our very principles. They are repugnant to those directing the fight, and so they make the most logical target of the extremists.

Therefore, while we properly worry about our physical security, we must devote even more concern to our future, as it is formulated, in a sense, by our principles. While I worry about the Brits, as their various Party leaders seem to currently be wanting, that’s their problem. We in the United States have our hands full with an Administration run by an individual from the private sector who has never, and cannot be, troubled to think beyond the private sector. His basic incuriosity, which is much like former President Bush’s, is leading him down the same mistaken path which took Bush (II) into the infamy of authorizing torture. Filling his White House with pretty faces and empty heads, and putting someone reputed to be a white supremacist as well as a follower of Leninist principles – both in opposition to our commonly held set of principles as Americans – the current President has attempted to fulfill campaign promises which contravene American principles.

While I believe his latest attempt to push his Muslim ban order, as the Times of India reports

US President Donald Trump on Sunday slammed London’s Pakistani-origin mayor Sadiq Khan saying it was not the time to be “politically correct”, and touted his controversial travel ban in view of the London Bridge terror attacks that killed seven people and wounded several others.

“We must stop being politically correct and get down to the business of security for our people. If we don’t get smart it will only get worse,” Trump said.

is in earnest, the problem for Mr. Trump is that this has nothing to do with political correctness and everything to do with the principles which have brought us peace and prosperity. I don’t think he, or nearly any member of his Administration, has the capacity to even consider these objections to their proposed set of actions, or why those proposals are ultimately against the law – and anti-American.

The real war is these attacks on our principles, from both religious extremists and the leaders of Russia. They are both in an existential war – because their competing sets of principles, of religious extremism and strong-man rule, respectively, have been doing poorly. It’s our job to show that our principles work better, and in all conditions.

And to better educate ourselves concerning those principles. After all, it is Trump in the White House.



1Assuming, of course, that these aren’t just religiously motivated individuals acting without direction.

2The rule of Man came before either, and consisted of the strong-man ordering of society; changes at the top came through blood-shed, and could be devastating.

Sorry, He’s Not Answering His Phone Right Now

A HuffPo report on Rep Tim Walberg (R-MI) typifies the rank amateurism that seems to be gripping the GOP these days:

Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) told a constituent last week that God can solve the problem of climate change if the global phenomenon truly exists.  …

“I believe there’s climate change,” Walberg said, according to a video of the exchange obtained by HuffPost. “I believe there’s been climate change since the beginning of time. I believe there are cycles. Do I think man has some impact? Yeah, of course. Can man change the entire universe? No.”

“Why do I believe that?” he went on. “Well, as a Christian, I believe that there is a creator in God who is much bigger than us. And I’m confident that, if there’s a real problem, he can take care of it.”

I want to focus on the immaturity of Rep. Walberg. This is not a traditional atheist screed, though, since I’m agnostic; no, I’m looking at this response as if God’s around – and asking myself, why should we expect God to clean up our messes? Because that’s what it is, if a highly subtle and advanced mess, a mess which tests both our technology and our grasp of ethics and morality: in a word, our mettle.

And Rep. Walberg, upon finding there’s a problem we’ve caused ourselves, throws himself on the mercies of God. (To be entirely fair, he’s a climate change skeptic.) Never mind his comment about the Universe, that’s easily just him mis-speaking. But the entire tenor of this remark is that of an irresponsible child, certain that his parents will clean up any messes he happens to make, and therefore not his to clean up.

Two problems. First, we hired Rep. Walberg to work on cleaning these problems up and take on the gargantuan task of preventing future such problems. That is the work of government. That he doesn’t seem to understand this marks him as an amateur.

Second, by behaving like a child, he sets a poor example for those in the party and the general citizenry. He encourages laziness and irresponsibility. And, by doing so in the sight of God, he encourages God to withdraw his favor.

As, if he exists, he has done so often throughout history. Rep. Walberg should be working up a sweat, being a good steward, and not being intellectually and morally lazy.

A New Mummy

Source: Phys.Org

Of the 4 footed, millions of years old variety. On Dead Things, Gemma Tarlach remarks on a find named Zuul crurivastator, a new member of the ankylosaur, or club-tailed herbivores:

The new-to-science dinosaur’s genus name reflects its block-headed, short-snouted resemblance to Ghostbusters’ Terror Dogs. But that vicious tail club inspired its species name, crurivastator, which translates to “destroyer of shins.”

Destroyer of shins. Heh.

Heh, indeed. But this is a specially cool find:

The virtually complete, partially mummified specimen was unearthed in 2014 and is still being prepared. Researchers started at either end (the spectacularly well-preserved skull and tail club) and are working their way toward the middle. In about two years, when the work should be complete, lead author Victoria Arbour of the Royal Ontario Museum and the University of Toronto thinks Zuul will measure about six meters, or 20 feet nose to club.

Stegosaurus Ungulates
Source: National Park Service

Nearly complete, details in place (unlike Stegosaurus, wherein the paleontologists first thought those plates would act like a roof), and even the possibility of recovering proteins. Proteins from an estimated 75 millions years ago.

Makes me feel like a kid again.

And, in honor of my late friend Nancy, who loved to eat dinner with a bunch of computer geeks and listen to them geek out (her eyes would cross and she’d start drooling, she claimed), here’s a bit of tech talk from the academic paper, from The Royal Society:

6. Skull

The skull is complete, missing only the tip of the right quadratojugal horn and the ventral edge of the vomers (figures 2, 3 and 5). The skull has undergone plastic deformation, with some dorsoventral compaction and mediolateral skewing evidenced by the bilateral asymmetry of the skull overall, and flattened, oval orbits [33]. The lateral sides of the snout taper gently towards a squared-off premaxillary beak. Laterally, the skull is relatively flat dorsally, unlike the arched profile of some specimens of Euoplocephalus, Anodontosaurus, Scolosaurus and Ziapelta, but this might result from taphonomic compaction of the skull. As in other ankylosaurines, the antorbital fenestra is absent and the supratemporal fenestrae are obscured. In dorsal view, the skull has a trapezoidal outline. Apart from the three known skulls of Ankylosaurus (AMNH 5214, AMNH 5895 and CMN 8880), ROM 75860 is the largest ankylosaurine skull recovered from Laramidia (table 1).

Learning From Other People’s Mistakes

Andrew Sullivan is perplexed by the failure of the reactionaries to overwhelm all of Europe:

A funny thing is happening to Theresa May’s unstoppable march to a massive new majority in Britain’s parliament: It appears to have stopped. I’d like to think this may have something to do with Trump: He is so repellent to almost anyone in the civilized world outside the U.S., he appears to be weakening reactionism’s appeal in Europe. After the Dutch far right stumbled this spring, and Macron beat Le Pen more decisively than expected, we now see Angela Merkel’s polling having perked up since March. But in Britain, the collapse of the Tories in the polls since the campaign started has been nothing short of remarkable. They began the campaign with a lead of close to 20 points; the latest poll — probably an outlier — gives them a mere 3 percent lead over a Labour Party led by someone (Jeremy Corbyn) slightly to the left of Noam Chomsky. In the poll of polls, Labour has gained 12 points in the last few weeks and the Tories have gone nowhere.

And is it impossible for the Europeans to watch the ugly results of the election of Donald Trump … and say “No fucking way?” Why not? After all, he’s been notorious virtually from the beginning of the Presidential campaign; the actual Presidency is simply the (very noxious) cherry on the top. The ugly incidents, the idiocy in Congress and the White House – I have no doubt the professional watchers in Europe have been relaying these dismaying results to their colleagues in the non-reactionary parties, and the word went out: bloody well vote, none of this crap about not liking your own candidate – take a look at the reactionary candidate and tell me you want him or her running this nation. The way Macron defeated Marine was quite reassuring to those in the United States who’ve never been under the Trump spell; we can only hope our fellow Americans will have such vastly bad experiences that they’ll awaken and regret.

I don’t live in Britain, nor correspond with any Brits, so I don’t know if Andrew’s speculation that Prime Minister May is mismanaging the early election she called – but I do know from readings that she and her cohort seem to be scientifically illiterate, and I wonder if that may have something to do with the apparent disaffection with the government.

It’s too bad the other side also appears to be quite radical, in just that way that political-junkies can be. Otherwise, May might be ripe to be rolled off the log.

That Hole He’s Digging May Collapse On Him

Professor David Wirth on Lawfare discusses Trump’s intention to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on Climate, noting there’s a cooling off period which will push the actual notification off right into the heated part of that wonderful season we’re already stepping into – Presidential election season:

In the context of the Paris Agreement, this structure provides a number of useful insights—all of which, as intended, exert a moderating influence on what might appear in retrospect to have been a rash decision in the heat of the political moment. They may also create quite a bit of unintended discomfort for the Trump presidency.

In terms of politics, this means that Trump’s abandonment of the Paris Agreement, not yet having taken effect and still subject to reconsideration, could well be a live issue during the next presidential campaign. It is not difficult to imagine that the timing of the effect of the U.S. withdrawal could well be a gift to aspiring presidential candidates from both parties, entirely contrary to Trump’s own interest in securing a second term.

Having watched this Administration boot the fumble right down the field, it’s not surprising that they didn’t think ahead here, either.

But in the presence of this incredible string of incompetent incidents, it’s also possible to credibly contend that Trump, along with the most of the GOP, truly believes the assertions of fake news. If so, then polls such as this one (left) from Gallup will not impact their thought processes – or perhaps they’re not even aware of them, seeing as Fox News is seen as a credible source in the White House these days.

Therefore, in the bubble of the GOP, as Andrew Sullivan & many others declared them years ago, they only hear themselves and think that’s the world – and everything else is the production of the enemy, even science. So perhaps Trump thinks he’s doing what the United States wants.

And that’s a useful way of thinking about this, because we can compare and contrast with another hypothesis – that being the GOP is simply out to erase the legacy of President Obama. The ACA is under assault, although watching the passing of the AHCA and the reactions of even GOP Senators puts me in mind of the great rubber hammers of the cartoons. President Obama also contributed to the Paris Agreement.

Now, whether this is endemic racism, not unbelievable given the presence of white supremacists in the White House, or GOP fear of Democrats taking full credit for the improving healthcare situation, as has been rumored, or the religious sensibility (a term I use with hesitant humor)  of the GOP finding it unbelievable that their sworn enemies, the Democrats, could do anything good under the Sun, I don’t know.

Returning to Professor Wirth’s commentary, I found this interesting:

The modest requirements of the Paris Agreement have been largely overlooked during the Agreement’s transformation into a political football.  Much of the Agreement is not legally binding, and those provisions that are involve primarily reporting and updating each country’s voluntarily identified “contribution”—purposely not a commitment that is legal enforceable. The Agreement’s generality and flexibility, in response to U.S. demands and experience with Kyoto, is a principal reason the deal was launched so quickly, less than a year after its adoption in December 2015.

Quite simply, the Paris Agreement puts “America First,” with our domestic policy agenda driving U.S. engagement with the Agreement and not the other way around.  During the lengthy public debate leading to the President’s recent announcement, even the principal negotiator for the United States concluded that the existing agreement could accommodate a relaxation of the U.S. contribution of the sort anticipated by Trump’s recent domestic proposals.

Given this modest description, it becomes more and more a question of “why did you bother?“, just like their persecution of the ACA, than anything else – a ripe reason to go looking for skulking motivations.

For Those Less Than Perfect

Scott Chamberlain on Mask of the Flower Prince has his own list of ten pieces of Mother’s Day music – for the imperfect mother in your life:

Barber: Medea’s Meditation and Dance of Vengeance.  Medea is the star of Western Civilization’s earliest custody-battle-gone-horribly-awry soap opera.  Furious that her louse of a husband is taking their kids to live with a new trophy wife, Medea decides a little infanticide will even the score.  It’s a story with something for everyone in the family.

Cherubini: Medea. A follow-up to the above entry, because sometimes a 12-minute work about a mother killing her children isn’t enough, and you really need a full-blown opera to do the story justice.

He also includes links to the music. G’wan – you know you want to!

Belated Movie Reviews

Hit a home run or I’ll scratch your toenails off!

We ran into an unexpected pleasure. There are certain movies which make our teeth itch; we identify them by how predictable they appear to be, and how good for us they appear to be. Such was the apparent case with Rhubarb (1951), a movie about a millionaire leaving his fortune to his cat, Rhubarb, and how the cat becomes a good luck charm for the formerly failing baseball team he had owned.

Sounds painfully predictable, doesn’t it?

But – at least for those of us fortunate enough to be cat owners – it’s a heckuva lot of fun, watching a bedraggled, nasty stray who hoards golf balls turn into a beloved pet who then transforms yet again into the team owner. Along the way there’s a vicious daughter of the deceased, cut out of the will and jealous of it all, and her clever machinations; the quite naturally terrified bookies and their scheme to negate the good luck charm; the soon-to-be married cat guardian and his sweetie, who is allergic to Rhubarb; and a passel of terrified pooches who’d rather not go toe to toe with the big tomcat.

I think one of the keys to this movie’s unexpected success with us was that the very personality of the cat is key thematic material for the movie – gumption, in a word. The millionaire takes delight in the cat, from his golf ball hoarding and dog chasing days to his independence; not seeing that in his daughter induces him to cut her out of the will. It becomes a running undernote of the movie, not insistently played up, but more a wistful minor key melody of persistence and guts in the face of mild problems. The acting is competent, the plot bounces right along, and the millionaire’s home is just as ridiculously ornate as you might expect.

That and the occasional word play. How can I resist a movie with the following dialog?

Lawyer: But that cat may have been powdered or sprayed with some irritant, such as pepper or mustard!

Judge: Point well taken, Mr. Dill.

I shan’t actually recommend it, but if you run across it one rainy afternoon, you could do worse than give this one a ten minute trial.

Ignorant Bulls In China Shops

Steve Benen on Maddowblog contributes some analysis which fairly well backs up my thoughts on how the failure to train our politicians in the basics of societal sectors is leading to disaster:

That’s not a throwaway line. What we have here is the White House’s budget director suggesting it may be time to eliminate the Congressional Budget Office from existence.

Note, Mulvaney may believe that the CBO score on the Republican health care plan is “absurd,” but he’s offered no competing data. Either the far-right budget chief doesn’t have alternative numbers, or he does have competing data that he prefers to hide out of embarrassment.

What’s more, given that Mulvaney just unveiled a budget plan with a jaw-dropping $2-trillion mistake – a colossal screw-up he says was intentional – perhaps the OMB director should avoid questioning the reliability of others’ budget analyses for a while.

But it’s the broader disdain for objective sources of information that really rankles. I’m reminded of a piece from the Washington Post’s Paul Waldman in March:

This is straight out of President Trump’s playbook, one that tries to convince everyone that there’s no such thing as a neutral authority on anything. If the CBO might say your bill will have problematic effects, then the answer is not to rebut its particular critique, but to attack the institution itself as fundamentally illegitimate. If the news media report things that don’t reflect well on you, then they’re “the enemy of the American People.” If polls show you with a low approval rating, then “any negative polls are fake news.” If a court issues a ruling you don’t like, then it’s a “so-called judge” who has no right to constrain you.

The Teapot Dome Scandal:
Crap like this happens when you’re ignorant, again and again.

And I’m sure Mick, Donald, & most of the company really don’t understand why things are structured as they are structured. The reason is that the government is not in place to make a profit, but to govern, and governing has little to do with how corporations run.

In this particular case, the CBO exists to evaluate proposed legislation in terms of at least the costs, and in the case of the AHCA, how well it accomplishes its putative goal, all in a non-partisan manner. This is just one aid in responsible planning and legislating.

In the corporate world there are other ways to do this – mainly by letting companies try things and if they fail & sink, too bad for them.

That doesn’t work in the government world. There’s little competition, and when there is it must be strictly regulated in order to avoid negatively impacting the citizenry.

So when Mick says,

“At some point, you’ve got to ask yourself, has the day of the CBO come and gone?” Mulvaney said…. He said, “The days of relying on some nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to do that work for us has probably come and gone.”

The proper response is, “No, Mick. Your time has come and gone. It was back in the 1800s. And the CBO was originated to stamp out scum like you.”

Open A Channel

Back on May 24 Slate reported on some more GOP jiggering in government in the realm of “ringless voicemail,” wherein a couple of companies have devised a method for inserting messages into your voicemail without ringing your phone first. While actually not strictly a new technology, the FCC has been asked if this is legal, and the Republican National Committee has weighed in on the matter:

The FCC has been asked to address the legality of ringless voicemail robocalls before. In 2014, a company called VoAPPs filed a proposal similar to AATM’s that asked the agency to “conclude that delivery of a voice message directly to a voicemail box…does not constitute a call.” The FCC hasn’t yet issued a ruling. According to its Friday FCC comment, the RNC’s case for ringless robocalling also rests on the First Amendment. “Political organizations like the RNC use all manner of communications to discuss political and governmental issues and to solicit donations — including direct-to-voicemail messages,” the comment said. “The Commission should tread carefully so as not to burden constitutionally protected political speech without a compelling interest.”

This all leads to the interesting question of when is uninvited political speech appropriate. I cannot help but note the flip side to the RNC‘s First Amendment argument – I cannot be forced to listen to political speech; that is coercion.
However, they may argue that this is not coercion, since I can delete those messages which contain political speech upon identifying them as same. There may be a hole in this defense, though: voicemail is a limited resource, and people will find it objectionable to lose potentially valuable messages when their voicemail is clogged up with undesired political speech. Critical messages may result in lost lives in some scenarios.

So when IS uninvited political speech appropriate? I have no idea if this would fly with SCOTUS, but I suggest we divide the communications channels into three groups: public, dedicated, and private.

Back at the time of the founding, private channels generally consisted of conversation and the occasional couriered message; while there were some mail services available, my impression is that they weren’t available to the average private citizen. Today, they are more varied – the now nearly antiquated post office, e-mail, phone conversations (an extension of the original private conversation), and, I would assert, voicemail, which has traditionally acted as a backup for phone conversations.

A dedicated channel would include theatre, cinema, and allied purposes. The audience attends voluntarily, prepared – presumably – for the content of the communications. It may or may not be political (although I suspect the folks at the RNC and DNC would be quick to think, and even assert, that everything is political, in that queer old way of believing everyone is interested in politics, despite endemic evidence contrary), but it is voluntary. This may distinguish from the public channel in that the audience capacity is quite limited and may pay for the privilege.

The final channel is where I would assert uninvited political speech is appropriate – the public channels. Returning to the days of the Founding of the Republic, this would have consisted of political posters pasted to the walls of buildings (today, telephone polls) and speeches in public spaces, such as taverns, churches, and parks. Today, churches (at least those wishing to retain their tax free status) have been replaced by the technologies of radio and television, as well as the cable and Internet versions of same. These, once again, retain their element of voluntariness – I am rarely forced to listen to the radio or watch the television. In fact, I might argue that the attendance on channels in this category constitutes an invitation to political speech.

The RNC‘s assertion that ruling against them would be a burden is, to my eyes, incorrect. Uninvited political speech on a private communications channel is clearly not a constitutionally protected speech – because it is not invited by the owner of the voicemail. There is no requirement of citizens to listen to every political communications blared out by those seeking power, after all. But the RNC is trying to slip that assertion by when it’s clearly false.

I’m also somewhat bemused, or amused, or even just mused, by this statement:

Ringless robocall technology is a boon to businesses and marketing agencies, expanding the number of consumers they can reach while saving them time, money, and regulatory hassle.

I must wonder about the metric involved. Is it as simple and misbegotten as number of consumers contacted? Is there no attempt to calculate a ratio of consumers positively affected to consumers enraged?  I suspect that this ratio approaches zero rather rapidly, much to the dismay of the users of the technology. If they knew. I suspect there’s no attempt to achieve such measurements, as they might be a little hard and, in any case, would endanger profitability.

Honestly, I see the RNC‘s assertion to actually be a little amateurish – not only from a common-sense point of view, but even from the idea of actually using that technology. But they’ll do what they want to do, and damn the consequences.

Belated Movie Reviews

She’d jump his bones if she could.

Perhaps the worst facet of The Detective (1954) is the overly bland title, which gives little to munch on until the movie is underway and you realize the detective is a certain Father Brown, Catholic priest, which is significant for those who watch the later TV series. This is the introduction, wherein we learn Father Brown is humble yet overly-confident, charming yet exceptionally shy, eccentric and yet a priest.

The attentive audience members will swiftly recognize the genre as being the British comedy-mystery. The details of the plot may mystify and even delight, as when Father Brown slips a man’s cigarette box from a man’s hand into his own (voluminous) sleeve, the victim none the wiser, but it’s clear the end point of this movie will be the recovery of the stolen cross, and, more importantly, the guidance of the soul engaged in high crimes back to the path of … well, whatever it is. It’s difficult to argue with the moral & teaching of the story, but the mouth of wisdom is, to the modern ear, accustomed more to accusations and acknowledgements of various crimes perpetrated by clerics, somewhat untrustworthy; and for those who do trust clerics, there is the urge to advise them to be more circumspect in their selection of authority figure.

The acting is the usual British competent to excellent, the staging is fun, and, overall, it’s an enjoyable movie.

Oh, and I lied. Really, the stage combat was, at best, unconvincing.

What’s Going On Out There?, Ctd

KIC 8462852 continues to dance for us, as NewScientist (27 May 2017) notes:

On 19 May, Tabby’s star began to dim, carrying on its history of strange dips in brightness. Astronomers are scrambling to decipher the mysterious signal from the star, which is 1300 light years away in the constellation Cygnus.

Back in January 2017 Phys.org published a possible explanation for unique phenomenon:

But in what may be the greatest explanation yet, a team of researchers from Columbia University and the University of California, Berkley, have suggested that the star’s strange flickering could be the result of a planet it consumed at some point in the past. This would have resulted in a big outburst of brightness from which the star is now recovering; and the remains of this planet could be transiting in front of the star, thus causing periodic drops.

For the sake of their study – titled “Secular dimming of KIC 8462852 following its consumption of a planet”, which is scheduled to appear in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society – the team took the initial Kepler findings, which showed sudden drops of 15% and 22% in brightness. They then considered subsequent studies that took a look at the long-term behavior of Tabby’s Star (both of which were published in 2016).

They then attempted to explain this behavior using the Kozai Mechanism (aka. Kozai Effect, Lidov-Kozai mechanism), which is a long-standing method in astronomy for calculating the orbits of planets based on their eccentricity and inclination. Applied to KIC 8462852, they determined that the star likely consumed a planet (or planets) in the past, likely around 10,000 years ago.

This process would have caused a temporary brightening from which the star is now returning to normal (thus explaining the long term trend). They further determined that the periodic drops in brightness could be caused by the remnants of this planet passing in high-eccentricity orbits in front of the star, thus accounting for the sudden changes.

Shifting back to current time, Science is reporting something interesting:

The first sign of the star’s recent dimming came on 24 April from Tennessee State University’s Fairborn Observatory in southern Arizona. But it wasn’t until late last week that astronomers were sure it had entered a new dip. It was 3% dimmer than its normal brightness on 19 and 20 May and is now moving back toward normal. “It looks like the dip has mostly ended,” Kipping says. “But … in the Kepler data we saw an episode of multiple dips clustered together over the span of a few weeks.” The progress of the dimming over the past few days also bears a passing resemblance to some detected by Kepler, supporting the idea that the same object is repeatedly passing in front of the star.

Thus the suggestion of debris. It’d have to be an enormous amount.

Just Ask An Animal Behaviorist

A friend points me at this WaPo story in bafflement:

The Trump administration is moving toward handing back to Russia two diplomatic compounds, near New York City and on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, that its officials were ejected from in late December as punishment for Moscow’s interference in the 2016 presidential election.

President Barack Obama said Dec. 29 that the compounds were being “used by Russian personnel for intelligence-related purposes” and gave Russia 24 hours to vacate them. Separately, Obama expelled from the United States what he said were 35 Russian “intelligence operatives.”

Early last month, the Trump administration told the Russians that it would consider turning the properties back over to them if Moscow would lift its freeze, imposed in 2014 in retaliation for U.S. sanctions related to Ukraine, on construction of a new U.S. consulate on a certain parcel of land in St. Petersburg.

Two days later, the U.S. position changed. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak at a meeting in Washington that the United States had dropped any linkage between the compounds and the consulate, according to several people with knowledge of the exchanges.

This one’s easy.

If a cat rolls on its back and shows their tummy, you just know those back claws are ready to disembowel you.

If a dog rolls on its and shows their tummy, he’s showing submission to the top dog.

The Trump Administration makes a lot of noise, but that’s it. They’re a yapping little Yorky, all yip and no bite.

Taking A Run At It In South Carolina

The Washington Post is reporting that the seat formerly held by Mick Mulvaney, now OMB Director, may be in play:

A poll from Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, completed on May 25 and obtained by The Post, has Democrat Archie Parnell down by 10 points to Ralph Norman, a state legislator making his second run at the rural and suburban seat. That’s a six-point bump for Parnell since March, when he began running TV ads, and it’s closer than the margin in Mulvaney’s last few races or the last presidential elections in South Carolina’s 5th District.

Mulvaney, the first Republican to win the district, won his elections while a Democrat was in the White House. In a Trump-era election, ALGR finds Democrats more interested in voting, twice as likely (5o percent to 26 percent) as Republicans to call the election “very important.” Just 42 percent of the district’s voters back the American Health Care Act, which the pollster described as the bill “to repeal and replace” the current health-care law. Fifty percent of voters opposed it.

Just how has this seat swung over the years? South Carolina gained a Congressional House seat in the census of 2010, which more or less rewrote the district maps of South Carolina, according to Ballotpedia. Thus, whereas the GOP often didn’t even run a candidate prior to the census in the Georgia South Carolina 5th, in 2010 Mick Mulvaney (R) defeated the incumbent. In the 2016 election, Mulvaney won by nearly 21 points.

Data from Ballotpedia, chart from Chartpart

So, if the poll results are accurate, Democrat Parnell being down by only 10 points represents a significant move. The special election date is June 20th, giving Mr. Parnell another 20 days to persuade the local independents that he’s worth their vote.

So far, the GOP has held on to what should have been easy seats in Montana and Kansas, but by far smaller margins than expected. The Democrats have picked up some state-level special-election seats which had belonged to the GOP, which is good in that it jars the GOP, but some national level pickups will hasten the collapse and rebuilding of the GOP, and that process must occur in order for the USA to have a healthy political culture.

[EDIT: Changed Georgia to South Carolina 11/5/2017]

Iranian Politics, Ctd

Suzanne Maloney on Markaz gives an overview of the future of Iran with Rouhani as the re-elected President – which is not equivalent to the American Presidency:

In this respect, Rouhani faces a familiar problem. In veering left, he surely helped secure strong turnout—74 percent—and probably swayed many of those who grew disappointed with what the nuclear deal has delivered. However, he also committed himself publicly to making progress on issues where he has only the most tenuous authority and where Khatami, aided by a reformist parliament, ultimately failed to generate meaningful change.

For this reason, his second term begins with an even stiffer challenge than his first. Dashed expectations among some proportion of the public after his first administration threatened his reelection; Rouhani will have to maneuver skillfully to avoid an even more dramatic disconnect between public demands and government achievements over the next four years. At his first post-election news conference, Iranian journalists burst into applause when a questioner advised him to continue behaving as he had during the final week of the campaign.

Rouhani’s rhetoric also cut dangerously close to the bone for the legitimacy of Iran’s ruling system, which remains fixed around the absolute authority of the supreme leader. That will surely not be forgotten, particularly at a time when the prospect of succession looms large. Raisi’s loss will make his speculated elevation deeply problematic, at least if it were to happen before the end of Rouhani’s presidency in 2021. Institutions matter more than individuals in the Islamic Republic, and the primacy of the leader’s office has to be protected. At 77 years old, the timing is hardly within Khamenei’s control, but it’s worth noting that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran’s original supreme leader, survived in office until the age of 86.

It’s all about stabilizing the government.

While Iranians may take pride in their democracy, it is surely a democracy deeply limited by religious requirements, not to mention institutions not susceptible to popular will. Which rings a bell here in the United States, as we think back to the summary sacking of James Comey from the FBI by President Trump. Comey’s removal shines a fiery light on the structural problems of a government which must investigate itself. The splitting of the government into pieces and even sub-pieces – as schizophrenic as that may seem to the nationalist and the outsider – is in reality the stability-inducing outriggers for the problem of corruption. The more ground corrupters must cover, the harder it is to escape the righteous indignation of those of upright character – or at least are not sharing in the booty.

Unsaid, so far, is whether the general citizenry of Iran is ready to serve without consideration for their own enrichment – I truly cannot say. I would have said that a sizable majority of Americans would be willing to do so; the wretched behavior of President Trump, his family, his staff, and the unhappy behavior of many elected GOP government officials, and, of course, those who voted for them gives me pause and wonderment as to whether we, too, are so unready to be a Republic.

When Your Mistakes Interfere With Your Work

Former White House Counsel Bob Bauer on Lawfare covers an unusual approach to the 25th amendment (the one which gives the Executive Branch an option for replacing the President if he becomes incapacitated) – a temporary use while Trump defends himself:

Now the President may and surely will reply that, in pronouncing the Russia controversy to be bogus, he is delivering a judgment in the national interest that, as Commander-in-Chief, he cannot avoid making. A political motivated, contrived scandal serves only to cripple his presidency. It also interferes with major shifts in foreign policy he deems urgent, such as rebuilding a damaged relationship with Russia to allow for collaboration on matters of common interest. So, yes, he might say: he will do what he can to fight off this investigation as a metastasizing attack on his presidency.

The defect in this line of argument is that it ignores his Department of Justice’s conclusion that an independent review of the Russia matter is warranted and required, and a determination along similar lines by a Congress controlled by his own party. The executive and legislative branches are mostly united in the view that the question of Russian interference with U.S. political and governmental processes is not, in fact, bogus, even if much about this Russian activity—including its nature and seriousness—remains to be known.  Moreover, the President’s insistence to the contrary is fatally infected with self-interest. It is hard to credit him with making an independent executive judgment, and whatever conclusion he has reached is not grounded in a thorough exploration of the facts that now falls to Congress and the Special Counsel to conduct.

It seems highly unlikely that the President sees or accepts this conflict of constitutional duty and private interests. But there may come a point when it cannot be denied or ignored.

Perhaps the president, in theory anyway, would have the option of temporarily stepping down under the procedures of the 25th Amendment. He would not do so because he is ill or, in a medical sense incapacitated. He would make a concededly unanticipated use of the Amendment because he has this vitally important duty that he cannot perform while pursuing his personal defense—in the terms of the Amendment, he is “unable” in these circumstances to “discharge the … duties of his office.”

But this choice on his part is unlikely in the extreme. This exceptional conflict will persist, with profound consequences for the course of this investigation and the future of his presidency.

And I think it would be a blow to his ego that he couldn’t really sustain. Despite his continued use of dubious business tactics and the occasional bankruptcy, he requires that everyone thinks he’s wonderful – including himself. Using the 25th Amendment could easily be construed as a failure on his part, although of course a fantasy-prone personality such as his might also make it into a paranoid conspiracy reason – and, indeed, it wouldn’t be out of line to suspect a large chunk of America, the knowledgeable chunk, is quite worried about the damage he and his minions are doing to the United States.

Belated Movie Reviews

The Purple Death was always a little shy.

There’s little punch in The Masque Of The Red Death (1964), a Vincent Price vehicle and retelling of Poe’s classic story. Price is the mad, Satan-worshiping Prince Prospero, who has constructed and followed a logic consistent with Satan having won the battle with God, and now controlling the world. All those in his principality live in fear of his moods, his anger, his retribution; there is little left of the humanity of Prince Prospero, and thus little left to foster a connection to the audience. Likewise, his wife is also a Satanist, and the tension between the two could have been interesting – if either had much humanity left.

Into this mix are brought a young woman by the name of Francesca, who is from a village ravaged by the red death, as well as her fiancee and her father. Prospero constructs horrific scenarios in which the two men might kill each other for his amusement, leaving Francesca frantic, and unfortunately that’s about as far as she ever gets, even though she helps free the men for a brief period.

Prospero decrees a masque, at which various bits of horror take place; our lack of connection to the various party-goers leads to surprisingly little tension, even as one man, costumed as a pig, is hoisted in the air and burned to death. Is this not worth some horror?

Perhaps the problem is the lack of compelling story logic. Francesca appears to be little more than a victim, rather than a tool for goodness; the men are hammers in the forge of this plot, with nary a tic between them.

In any case, Prospero discovers that Satan is still subordinated to Death, and there’s little Satan can do about it for Prospero’s sake. Death is detached, ruthless, regretless, and Prospero’s master never appears to protect him. In the end, we are left with merely the sight of several Deaths, assembling for conversation and reportage, before resuming their duties as masters and slaves.

And, sadly, Price fails to burn this castle down.

Israel And America, Ctd

The Trump storm continues as now the hard line Israeli right fears Trump may actually force them to accept a two-state solution with the Palestinians. Ben Caspit comments on AL Monitor:

There’s talk on the Israeli political right of a “done deal” between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. According to senior members of the HaBayit HaYehudi party, one of Netanyahu’s main coalition partners, the deal has been clinched. Netanyahu realized that he has no choice but to go along with the president’s grand quest for Israeli-Palestinian peace, or at least to play along and hope that the Palestinians are the ones who derail it. …
On May 27, some 15,000 left-wing Israelis held a rally at Tel Aviv’s Rabin Square to demand a resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and adoption of the two-state solution. Herzog was the keynote speaker, followed by a surprise message from Abbas to the demonstrators: “Our hand is extended in peace that is created between those who are brave.”

A day earlier, Channel 2 television reported on a poll indicating that Netanyahu and the right had picked up significant political mileage from Trump’s visit to Israel last week. Nonetheless, the poll also included an amazing and significant finding according to which 47% of Israelis still support the two-state solution. After eight consecutive years of Netanyahu rule, the number of Israelis who favor this solution is significantly greater than the number who reject it (39%). The only possible interpretation of these findings is that Israelis would be willing to buy into such an arrangement if it were adopted by someone from the political right. Right now, that someone is Netanyahu. In the dilemma between clashing head-on with Trump or embarking on a diplomatic process with the Palestinians, Netanyahu is highly likely to opt for the latter.

It may turn out that a measure of unpredictability brought on by ignorance and amateurism will be the key to getting a treaty done between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and, if so, Trump will certainly wear the mantle of achievement with some pride – although I doubt this is an anticipated victory, much less entirely palatable to the more conservative and far-fringe portions of his backers, particularly those of the End-Times category.

It’s more along the lines of a plague-ridden family member. You can’t shut him out or shoot him, so you do whatever you have to in order to give him shelter. And Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on doing precisely that. But this will be a fascinating high wire act for him, between the oblivion of signing a treaty and the pressure from Trump to do so. Because how far could Trump go?

He could try to remove all foreign aid to Israel.

Word Of The Day

Conterminous:

3 : enclosed within one common boundary : the 48 conterminous states
[Merriam-Webster]

Noted in a Letter to the Editor, NewScientist (20 May 2017):

The past and the present become conterminous – there are no boundaries in the experience of time. Especially in the late afternoon and evening, the person with dementia often becomes confused in the midst of “sundowning”. [Bob Kahn]