Another Incoming Volley?, Ctd

A reader remarks on the report of a whistleblower complaint concerning the President’s tax returns:

The best thing that could happen is if those 6 years of tax returns were released to the press. Even if his base didn’t care what those forms said, they’d provide endless opportunities and resources for journalists to investigate other related things, and just keep those “hits” coming. Eventually some of the public will be swayed.

Unfortunately, the longer it takes, the more it looks like a political hit job rather than legitimate critical concerns regarding his activities and how they violate the Constitution.

He’s Not The Lone Villain

I’m a little puzzled by Megan McArdle’s plea to Democrats:

“Don’t make it hard to be good.”

By this, he meant that a repentant scofflaw should be offered kindness, not your residual anger. If you want kids to do the right thing, make being good more pleasant than the alternative. Corollary: Democrats, you should impeach only if yougenuinely want to remove the president from office, not just to position yourselves for 2020. And because you’ll need 20 Republican senators to accomplish that, you should make it as easy as possible for conservatives to join the effort.

Don’t shower invective on conservatives; if anyone must be denounced, let it be Trump and Trump alone. Greet each new convert to Team Impeachment with a warm “Welcome, brothers and sisters!” rather than a grudging “What took you so long?”

Trump is not the problem. Trump is the symptom, the symptom of a soul-destroying rot at the center of the Republican soul. The tendency of Republicans to talk to themselves, thus confirming their positive biases towards themselves, is a key part of the problem.

If the Democrats, in the name of expediency, refuse to put the blame on unrepentant Republicans, then what have they gained beyond one convicted President and a new President Pence? Is there any gain worth having?

Going back over the last, oh, 25 years, it’s not hard to point at numerous individual Republican activities that were not caused by Trump, but presaged him.

  • Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) urging the Republicans to give up cooperative, responsible governance in preference to making the Republicans “win”.
  • Impeaching a President over a blow-job.
  • The gross financial irresponsibility of the three Republican-controlled Congresses of the aught-years, which served to put on display Republican hypocrisy concerning budgetary responsibility.
  • Mismanagement of the economy in the belief it’d be self-regulating, i.e., Glass-Steagall repeal.
  • Refusal to work on the children of immigrants problem, which resulted in Obama’s “Dreamers” solution.
  • The embarrassment and humiliation of the letter written to Iran by most of the Republican Senators during JCPOA debates.
  • The utter mendacity surrounding the passing of Justice Scalia and the refusal to consider a candidate recommended by Republicans, Judge Garland Merrick. While Senator McConnell (R-KY) may have been the leader of that particular emission of bald-faced lies, it wasn’t just him, nor was it then-candidate Trump, but instead it took the concerted effort of all the Republican Senators to deny the nation the wisdom of a Justice for more than a year, break the Constitution by not fulfilling their duties, and then laughing about it later.

Welcome them within open arms if they disown someone they palpably haven’t like for his entire Presidency, their little pawn that has been so satisfactory when it came to judicial selections, regulatory actions, and tax reform (which has been such a disaster)?

No, it’s a systemic problem in the heart of what passes for American conservatism these days, and ignoring it by patting on the head disaffected Republicans who’ve finally admitted that Trump has abused his position at this late date will do a greater disservice to the Nation. Only by making our dissatisfaction and disappointment with their behavior, ideology, and even theology (think: craven Evangelical behavior) apparent can we hope for necessary improvements.

A little salty sandpaper on their open wounds is only appropriate. Otherwise, it’ll just keep on happening.

Another Incoming Volley?

I see Bloomberg has some anonymously sourced news concerning the tax returns of President Trump:

A key House Democrat said he’s consulting lawyers about whether to make public a complaint by a federal employee about possible misconduct in the Internal Revenue Service’s auditing of President Donald Trump.

The complaint raises allegations about “inappropriate efforts to influence” the audit process, House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in August. Neal told reporters on Friday that a decision on releasing the complaint depends on advice he receives from lawyers for the House of Representatives.

The release of such a complaint could bolster Neal’s lawsuit seeking to obtain six years of Trump’s tax returns, which he filed in July after the Treasury Department rejected the committee’s request. Neal has said he needs the returns to ensure the IRS is following its policy of annually examining the president’s returns.

Assuming this is true, will Trump’s base care? For most issues, I’d say not. However, in line with the Revolutionary War’s antecedents, it’s a long and hallowed tradition for Americans to bitch & whine about their taxes – and be utterly resentful of the elite who take advantage of loopholes seemingly written just for them.

If, indeed, there’s a whistleblower complaint alleging Trump tried to use the Presidential office to interfere with an audit to his advantage, that might put a stake in the heart of his cult. It doesn’t need to become part of the impeachment inquiry and/or proceedings, but it simply becomes a very important chunk of concrete tied to Trump’s neck, and possibly the piece that breaks him.

And, again if this is true, this is all self-inflicted damage.

In Case You’ve Ever Wondered About Those Sauropods

Those are the big dinosaurs, the herbivores who wandered about on four legs, didn’t have holes in their bones, and didn’t turn into chickens. But didn’t you ever wonder if they stepped on their fellow denizens of the primordial Earth?

The answer appears to be Yes! From the paleorXiv server, the abstract of Under the feet of sauropods: A trampled coastal marine turtle from the Late Jurassic of Switzerland? 
by Christian Püntener, Jean-Paul Billon-Bruyat, Daniel Marty, and Géraldine Paratte:

Recent excavations from the “Paléontologie A16” project brought to light thousands of dinosaur footprints and numer-ous turtle remains from the Late Jurassic of Porrentruy (Swiss Jura Mountains). While most fossil turtles (Thalassochelydia) were found in marly layers that were deposited in a coastal marine paleoenvironment, the dinosaur (theropods and sauropods) tracks were found in laminites that were deposited in a tidal flat environment. Despite extensive exploration, very few fossils were found in these dinosaur track-bearing laminites. On one occasion, a sub-complete turtle shell (Plesiochelys bigleri) was discovered within the laminites, embedded just beneath an important sauropod track level. The state of preservation of this specimen suggests that the turtle died on the tidal flat and was quickly buried. This is the first evidence that these turtles occasionally visited tidal flat paleoenvironments. Moreover, the particular configuration of the fossil turtle suggests that the shell was possibly trodden on by a large sauropod dinosaur.

The actual paper is here. They suggest the turtle was already dead when trampled, and I do hope so. Not so much intellectually interesting as morbidly fascinating, I know. However, given the size of a sauropod foot and how the turtle compares to it, that was a large turtle.

Time Passes, Or Is It Geography Doesn’t Reflect Density?

President Trump appears to be defiant in the face of the Impeachment Inquiry:

Chris Cillizza of CNN objects:

“Try to impeach this” is obviously a dare based on the image, which purports to show just how much support this President had in 2016. But impeachment has zero to do with how popular (or not) a President is or was.

Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution sets this bar for impeachment:

“The President, Vice President and all civil officers of the United States, shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.”

Nowhere in that is the word “popular” mentioned. Nor is “won a lot more counties in 2016” referenced.ce greatest Economy in the history of our Country, entirely rebuilt our Military into the most powerful it has ever been, Cut Record Taxes & Regulations, fixed the VA & gotten Choice for our Vets (after 45 years), & so much more?

It’s also worth noting that the Executive, aka Trump, must work WITH Congress to achieve many of these objectives, and by and large has failed to do so; his most noteworthy achievements; the Tax Reform of 2017, which has resulted in immense Federal deficits, and the filling of many federal judiciary seats, both required cooperation from parts of the legislature. While the latter is merely dubious in its uplifting of right-wing zealots to the judiciary, virtually regardless of qualification, the former has already begun to show its ill-advised nature in terms of the aforementioned deficits.

Cillizza also addressed the population density question with a map, but I like this map from World Map better:

Note the concordance between density and Democratic victories in Trump’s map. But this one from Mark Newman of the University of Michigan is even better, as it depicts how the country voted in 2016 and manipulates the geography to fit the voting patterns:

It removes the distortion introduced by our wildly changing population density. But, even more importantly, the fact that it’s from 2016 should be important:

The country has had experience with Trump as President, and given his chronically low approval ratings, it’s becoming clear that impeaching the President isn’t an overwhelming project for the Democrats. Steve Benen provides a useful graph Quinnipiac polls:

As for Quinnipiac, just last week, it found 37% of Americans endorsing Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, while 57% disagreed. The results are quite different now.

American voters are divided on impeaching and removing President Trump from office, 47 – 47 percent – closing a 20-point gap from less than a week ago, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. In the poll released on September 25th, voters said that the president should not be impeached and removed 57 – 37 percent. […]

While voters are split on impeaching and removing President Trump from office, a slim majority of registered voters do approve of the impeachment inquiry opened by the U.S. House of Representatives 52 – 45 percent. Approval includes half of independents, who are split 50 – 45 percent on the inquiry.

Given the speed at which voters’ attitudes are changing, President Trump may be spitting into the wind.

Pundits and experts have suggested the impeachment inquiry may take months. I think may see the end of this far more quickly, depending on how loose Trump’s lips become, how much fortitude he wants to display in the face of self-inflicted disaster, and whether or not the Republican Party finally regains its sanity. Indeed, it may occur so quickly it blows the clothing off of his allies in the punditry and Congress. What will tomorrow bring?

Belated Movie Reviews

No, you did it!

The Inner Circle (1946) gets off to a quick start, introducing us to private detective Johnny Strange. He’s looking for a secretary, but as he’s dictating an ad to the local newspaper, a woman walks in and takes the job, and she’s a woman who matches his somewhat chauvinistic requirements in just about every way. Moments later, she’s answered the phone and has a job for him, so off he charges to meet a mysterious client with a mystery job.

The client, clad all in black, takes him to a house and shows him the body of her husband, shot and gone. Please get rid of it, she asks, but Strange isn’t stupid, so when turns to call the cops, she clunks him upside the head and makes her own arrangements. But as she sheds her black clothes, a witness notes what’s happening.

When Strange awakens, the police are just walking in, the wife is nowhere to be seen, and conclusions are being drawn and quartered before Strange can keep up. It doesn’t help that the victim is a radio personality and gossip-monger who didn’t have a wife. But two days later, the coroner’s jury has bought the story, concocted and sworn to by his secretary, that it was self-defense. Strange is free.

Even if Strange doesn’t remember it that way.

He’s curiosity-driven, and, picking up a clue or two at the Fitch mansion, he begins to put the story together. Meanwhile, that aforementioned witness makes contact with the faux-widow, looking for a penny or two, as he didn’t much care for Mr. Fitch, either. But now the faux-widow is getting a little worried.

Eventually, it’s a radio version of the gathering of the suspects as they broadcast, in admirable fidelity, four scenes from recent days, from which Strange claims he can deduce the identity of Fitch’s killer. Is it the high-society girl? How about the other one? The mobster? The singer with the voice of an angel and the attitude of the devil?

And how will Strange prove it?

The head feints come in a hurry in this short little mystery, but unfortunately little effort is made to make any of them believable, and that’s too bad. A little time, some thinking about it, and that school of red herrings could have been baked into a compelling whodunit (and, no, Wikipedia, this is not noir).

As it is, it’s pleasant and fun, but not serious enough to be memorable.

Two Data Points Isn’t A Trend, Ctd

Remember Rep Chris Collins (R-NY), who was indicted on insider trading charges prior to the 2018 elections? NBC News is reporting that his innocent plea may not survive the week:

Rep. Chris Collins, R-N.Y., has sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office stating that he is resigning from his House seat, a source familiar with the matter tells NBC News.

Collins’ resignation comes ahead of his expected guilty plea Tuesday to charges relating to insider trading, according to documents filed in federal court Monday. His resignation will become effective once his letter is read on the House floor during Tuesday’s pro-forma session.

Collins, the first member of Congress to announce his support for Donald Trump’s presidential bid, is scheduled to appear for a “change of plea” hearing in a Manhattan courtroom at 3 p.m. Tuesday. He pleaded not guilty to insider trading and several other charges when he was first indicted in 2018. Experts say the hearing means he is likely changing his plea to guilty.

The reputation of the current crop of Republicans is blackened just a little bit, especially since Collins is a Trump supporter (TrumpScore: 99.3%, which is astounding to my mind). In fact, his >cough< superior TrumpScore even stains Trump himself, since one can assume Collins has been modeling himself on Trump.

I don’t actually know how Collins’ seat will be filled, but my guess is that it’ll be an appointment by the Governor, followed by a special election. The Governor, Andrew Cuomo, is a Democrat, so unless there are special rules concerning how to fill an empty seat, we can expect a Democrat to be appointed.

And then? New York’s 27th District has been Republican for a while, but Collins won the 2018 election, when under indictment, by .3 point, or roughly the skin of his teeth. How will a ‘clean’ successor do against a specially appointed incumbent? It’s hard to say.

But there’s definitely some opportunity here for the Democrats.

Calls To Resign Watch

The Connecticut Post is the first I’m aware of:

This is an impeachable offense. Republicans spent Wednesday arguing there was no explicit quid pro quo, but there is seemingly no line the president can cross that would inspire them to put the public good ahead of politics. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, joined by the entirety of Connecticut’s congressional delegation, has called for impeachment proceedings, and that process must now begin in earnest.

The proper next step for the president is clear. He should resign. He has repeatedly proven himself unfit for office and appears to view the presidency as a position meant to benefit himself personally, not as one that must represent the interests of an entire nation.

It’s good to see they recognize that it’s not just Trump who’s fatally flawed, but the entire GOP. It simply sharpens the point. Their shame, even if they vote for conviction at Trump’s impeachment trial, will be great for letting this go on for so long.

But – to be fair – way over on the other end of the spectrum, and perhaps exhibiting his lust for prestige, position, and power to an untoward degree, Presidential advisor Pastor Robert Jeffress has his own opinion, delivered in a Fox News interview, for which I’ll use Crooks And Liars for a partial transcript:

“I think it’s hard to take Nancy Pelosi’s call to prayer seriously. I mean it reminds me of a pyromaniac with a match in hand about to set fire to a building saying, ‘Please pray with me that the damage I’m about to cause isn’t too severe.’ I mean if you’re really sincere about that prayer, then put down the dang match.”

“[I]mpeachment is the only tool they have to get rid of Donald Trump and the Democrats don’t care if they burn down and destroy this nation in the process,” …

“If the Democrats are successful in removing the president from office, I’m afraid it will cause a Civil War-like fracture in this nation from which this country will never heal.”

A load of hooey. A sober analysis would ask what the results might be depending on the evidence and arguments presented at the impeachment and the trial. Sure, if Trump is getting shafted, there’d be a sizable segment of upset people. But if the evidence is overwhelming does he still think a Civil War fracturing will follow?

Or will the American people, exercising their wit and wisdom, kick Trump and, tragically for Jeffress, Pastor Jeffress to the curb? All we’d lack is Mark Twain to deliver the final, poetic kick to the nuts.

No, the problem with Pastor Jeffress – and why his prating should be ignored – is that he has way too much skin in the game. He has, as I said, power, prestige, position, all things that this agnostic knows Jesus Christ would have despised. And now he’s defending it in the face of not only alleged, but apparent multiple abuses of executive power. His willingness to continue to back Trump in the face of severe moral failings, not to mention Trump’s intellectual limitations, disqualifies him from any consideration of his ramblings.

Surrounded with the best? No, Trump seems to attract the worst.

The Flip Side Of Tactics

While perusing a post concerning President Trump’s ill-advised demand that the DOJ investigate Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA), Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, suddenly the phrase Little Adam Schiff popped into my mind. A little research confirmed that, indeed, President Trump had denigrated Rep Schiff at one time, and, according to The Blaze[1], used Little pencil-neck Adam Schiff as well.

Funny thing about nicknames that are denigrative. They’re used to indicate the assumed superiority of the speaker, his or her dominance over the target. President Trump is notorious for using nicknames to denigrate his opponents, from Lyin’ Ted Cruz to various Democratic politicians.

This works out fine if you win. But what will Trump do if he is, in fact, impeached? In Trump’s narrow mind, Schiff isn’t performing oversight activities, as that activity has no meaning in the private sector from which Trump hails and is, metaphorically speaking, cloistered in. For Trump, Schiff is attacking him, and if Trump is, in fact, successfully impeached in the House, then Little Adam Schiff will have won.

President Andrew Johnson

Evading conviction in the Republican-controlled Senate will be a treacly counterstroke by Trump as well, since Schiff loses nothing if the conviction doesn’t occur. Trump’s legacy, weak as it is, will be marred with an impeachment on it for all history to review; he’ll join Nixon, Clinton, and Andrew Johnson with that black mark, and Trump only admires the latter. It’s not good company he’s keeping, although he may try to spin it his way.

But all those Democratic nicknames will come back to haunt him, as they triumph over him in a way he’ll never be able to overcome. So if the House does pass Articles of Impeachment, Trump will indeed begin to boil.

After all, he’ll have lost to Little Adam Schiff.


1 The Blaze features this little come-on:

Ditch the fake news ==> Click here to get news you can trust sent right to your inbox. It’s free! [link removed]

And thus, in general, is an untrustworthy news site. However, in this particular case I believe we can accept its quote of Trump as true.

The Current Price List

The Tampa Bay Times happens to know the price list if you need access to Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and you’re corporate – or have deep pockets.

Golf in a foursome? $25,000.

Golf one-on-one with DeSantis? $100,000.

A 10- to 15-minute meeting? $25,000.

A dinner event? $150,000.

One hour of an “intimate and high dollar” gathering? $250,000.

Paying for access to powerful politicians is hardly new. President Bill Clinton famously allowed top donors to stay in the Lincoln Bedroom at the White House during the 1990s. President Donald Trump’s acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney once bragged, “If you’re a lobbyist who never gave us money, I didn’t talk to you. If you’re a lobbyist who gave us money, I might talk to you.”

But internal documents from DeSantis’ campaign committee provide a rare peek into the inner workings of the main political operation behind Florida’s top elected official — someone who is often talked about as a potential 2024 presidential candidate.

The money would be paid in the form of donations ‘… to the Republican Party of Florida, which [chair of DeSantis’ political committee Susan] Wiles described in a memo as “interchangeable” with DeSantis’ political committee.’

The privatization of government, one might say, where only those with deep pockets and the favor of the King Governor can hope to benefit. To be fair:

“It would be false and grossly unfair to Gov. DeSantis to assume that any of the ideas proposed in this memo were ever implemented,” [chair of DeSantis’ political committee Susan] Wiles told the Times. “In fact, Gov. DeSantis should be commended for upholding the highest standards of ethics during his campaign and during his service as governor of our state.”

Doesn’t that sound familiar? But …

In the Jan. 20 memo to Strum, Wiles said that DeSantis and the first lady approved the “aggressive” fundraising plan. Casey DeSantis, a key member of DeSantis’ inner circle, intended to play “an integral role in many of these activities,” Wiles added, including events for supporters at the governor’s mansion and dedicated time for thank you calls.

Maybe not exactly illegal, but so likely to result in poor governance that it should be simply called corrupt, with Governor DeSantis landing directly in prison.

Too bad it won’t happen.

Belated Movie Reviews

Is it still a parade if it’s in Venice?

Venetian Bird (1952) plays as a slice of life for private detective Edward Mercer. He’s in Venice a few years after World War II, hired to find one Renzo Uccello by a Paris legal firm, but we’re never sure why, even if the ever more implausible story of a reward for a saved life is offered – and it doesn’t seem to matter, as the mystery of Uccello quickly consumes our attention. Mercer advertises for information in Venice, which leads to a quick contact and then, in a ridiculous mistake, the loss of his man as he fetches a drink for him.

But now he has a name, and that leads him to the galleria where Uccello’s unknown wife, Adriana, works on tapestries, and the sad news that Uccello died in a German bombing of a local village. Mercer decides to visit in order to be thorough, and discovers the local sculptor was the mayor at the time of the bombing, and helped remove Uccello’s battered body, among many, from the collapsed hotel. Mercer’s eye is caught by some of the better sculptures, and the former mayor confesses that they are the work of his assistant, a better sculptor than himself, who was taken away by the Germans near the end of the war.

But Mercer nearly gulps down his cigarette: one of the sculptures looks like it is the model for the tapestry he had seen at the galleria where the widow works.

The twists continue as the Chief of Police becomes involved, as do his men, and soon we come to an unexpected denouement: the attempted assassination of an up and coming political leader, which will be pinned on Mercer.

And this is credible because Mercer may have been involved in a similar situation years ago.

This moral ambiguity pervades this story’s major characters, and lends it a realistic edge. Mercer is tired of the whole business of seeing blackness and evil all around him; his friend, Rosa, is a world-weary ex-pat who can never seem to find the right man, but she’ll rouse herself one more time to help Mercer escape the police, despite her own suspicions of his role as assassin; Adriana the widow, offered the opportunity of redemption from her dubious life of crime, turns away in doubt. Hell, even Casana the tourist photographer leads a second life as an undercover policeman.

This realism, in turn, complicates the story, but not overly; that is, the complications are organic and feel right. This makes it an interesting morality tale. It’s not perfect, of course, and not as compelling as other stories of its genre, such as The Maltese Falcon (1941), but it kept our attention and kept us wondering, not only what was coming, but what had come before. If this is to your taste, you could do much worse.

And This Guy Wants To Be A Senator

Corey Lewandowski, former campaign manager for the Trump campaign and, reportedly, a Senate hopeful in Virginia for the seat of Senator Warner (D), had better hope that Senator Warner, or whoever succeeds him as the Democratic nominee for Warner’s seat, doesn’t see this video of Lewandowski testifying to the House Judiciary Committee. He’s under fire from the Committee’s consultant counsel, Barry Berke, who is slowly pinning Lewandowski down and ripping off his metaphorical wings concerning Lewandowski’s mendacity.

You know Lewadowski realizes he’s in trouble when he resorts to the logical error of claiming something totally different from what Berke is trying to get him to admit, which is that he lies whenever it suits him:

What I’m saying is that, when under oath, I’ve told the truth. Whether it’s before special counsel, or the House Judiciary Committee, or the House Intelligence Committee on two separate occasions, or the Senate Intelligence Committee, every time I’ve raised my right hand to God, I’ve sworn and told the truth. [My transcript from below cited video, roughly at 5:15.]

It’s quite the video, watching Lewandowski squirm like a bucket of Slime as he tries to avoid admitting that he’s lied to the public on multiple occasions. He tries to hide behind God, as if he’s only obligated to tell the truth when God has been invoked, he tries to hide behind the Mueller Report, he tries to blame the media for his dishonest ways (as if the media doesn’t represent the public during such interviews!), self-promotion, and, well, his own faulty memory of his own activities.

It really begs the Virginia GOP to answer the question of how important honesty is in their candidates. I mean, I wouldn’t trust this guy so far as I could throw him.

But that Trump, who claimed he would and did hire the best, thinks this guy is, or was, the best, is an appalling thought.

Schadenfreude?

David Von Drehle notes a potential multiplication of President Trump’s woes:

… it is intriguing that Fox News added a veteran politician to its rather compact board of directors earlier this year and placed him in charge of nominating future board members. Paul D. Ryan, former House speaker, has as much reason as any conservative Republican in America to nurse a gigantic grudge against the president. To have him advising the new Fox News leadership on strategy and future directions cannot bode well for the aging star of the Donald Trump Show. …

Arguably, Ryan was the face of the GOP’s future, but after just two years of carrying water for Trump, the budget-busting boor shredded Ryan’s credibility as a fiscal hawk and dented his reputation for decency. In 2018, he declined to run for reelection.

So Ryan has clear eyes regarding the fates of any who linger too long in the Trump embrace. Vanity Fair magazine’s resident Fox News-watcher, Gabriel Sherman, quoted an unnamed executive at the channel as saying: “Paul is embarrassed about Trump, and now he has the power to do something about it.” [WaPo]

If Ryan was the face of the GOP’s future, it would have been a bust based on his performance as Speaker, but I take Von Drehle’s point. If Trump’s primary propaganda horn is suddenly turned against him, he’ll be badly hobbled. Would his base cling to him if their favorite news media was suddenly documenting his mendacity, his incompetence, and even his damned laziness (an important point in the Midwest, and if he thinks he can win Minnesota, I’m predicting he’ll lose it by at least 10 points, and more likely 20 – Minnesota farmers are not a happy lot, and the Minnesota Republicans are well known for big talk, but no matching walk)? I’m guessing an even split.

This should be quite interesting. If Fox News turns against him and suggests he’s incompetent and unworthy, it’ll be an echo of one of Trump’s biggest motivations – to be accepted as one of the elite of New York City. He may cling to the Presidency just out of spite, rather than resign and flee the country.

Better Than A Poke In The Eye …

Oh, wait. This IS a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Source: Harley-Davidson

If there was any doubt that Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) was going all-in on an electrified future, the U.S. motorcycle leader just dispelled it by unveiling three prototype pedal-assist electric bicycles designed primarily for urban riders.

As it prepares to officially launch its high-performance LiveWire electric motorcycle next month, Harley is making clear this is no longer your father’s motorcycle company. It has a new vision about how people will get around tomorrow, and it intends to adapt to fit within it.

Yet, as is seemingly always the case with Harley-Davidson, the question of how well its new offerings might be received in the marketplace depends heavily on how much they’ll cost. [Rich Duprey, The Motley Fool]

But the very idea of adapting to the new climate realities is anathema to President Trump and many of his allies, and thus this is the return volley, the sharp stick in the eye, for Trump’s attack on the company in 2018.

Harley-Davidson is one of the great iconic, cross-cultural brands of the United States. As much as conservatives would love to embrace it as its own, the truth is that riders of all political stripes have adored the brand for decades. It’s decision to embrace, rather than ignore, the findings of science when it comes to climate change, marks a cleaving between themselves and the climate-denying conservatives who’ve supported Trump – and leaves those right-wing extremists (for, in truth, they do not satisfy the definition of conservative) just a little bit weaker when it comes to their American credentials.

For Harley-Davidson, this is a two-fer: a new product line they hope will be embraced by younger generations, while slyly kicking Trump and his allies in the nuts.

And for Trump, not only has this venerable brand refused to swear allegiance to him, personally, by moving some manufacturing to Europe, but his intellectual assertions are repudiated by this product line offering. His Administration’s shameful refusal to work and lead on the climate change problem – potential disaster, let’s not mince words – has another spotlight shone on it, showing the irresponsibility of putting a limited business leader and man into a political leader’s position.

The Next Unexpected Move

Donald J. Trump has been, in some respects, like famed Detroit Lions running back Barry Sanders, well known for putting on a virtual dance when cornered in the backfield, knowing the perfect moment to burst forward, elude his would-be captors, and make a big gain. His secret was doing the unexpected, moving the feet, feinting, dodging, and having the patience to let his tacklers go the wrong way while he went the right way – for him.

Similarly, the speedy decay of President Trump’s position in the White House may mean his end is near, but it may also mean we’ll see Trump try something new. For instance, try this on for size:

  1. He resigns in favor of Pence.
  2. Pence proactively pardons him for any federal crimes he might have committed, much like Ford did for Nixon.
  3. Trump, now free of the leadership responsibilities, continues to campaign for 2020.

Of course, he’d face some question marks. For example, several state GOP primaries have been canceled on the theory that the incumbent shouldn’t have to face challenger, even though there’s three. Does a President who resigned under pressure deserve the courtesy of a free victory in those states, or will they have to hurriedly reinstate those primaries?

And, of course, would the Republican base stick with him? Resignation, no matter how much he cries that he was forced to do so due to Democratic tricks and unfairness, is a big red flag that even the base would have to consider. Would the power of the cult continue to overwhelm their sensitivities, or would some of them wake up? Naturally, most independents would write him off, but he might still make a go of a run.

And that’d make for quite a Presidential contest. Hell, he might even go Independent and shatter the Republican Party, as it’d have to run one of Walsh, Weld, Sanford, or Pence. Pence, the weakest candidate, would have the greatest advantage as a sitting President, so there’d be a lot of internal writhing.

Is any of this likely? No. I think. But Trump has traditionally thought outside of the box, and he may think, like Hitler thought with the invasion of Russia, that he can make this work. The pundits have speculated the impeachment and trial may take months, with outcome uncertain. Trump could easily yank the rug out and change the entire future contest.

Just like last time.

Belated Movie Reviews

One Body Too Many (1944) starts out strong, but peters out with the appearance of some ill-considered farce. Cyrus J. Rutherford, mogul, has died, and his heirs have gathered for the reading of the preamble of his Will. Through this useful mechanism, we learn his opinions of, and probable motivations for, various relations and servants. My favorite was of his niece: “I despised your father as a fool, but you appear to have rather better intelligence and regard for your uncle …”

It’s a nice setup, as he stipulates that he be buried “under the stars,” as he is astrologically inclined, and if this fails to occur, then the bequests that are contained in his Will, unrevealed as yet, “will be reversed.” We have hints of motivation between family members and a pair of servants who may have put rat poison in the coffee, and even a lawyer who suppresses Rutherford’s opinion of himself, a good situation for conflict, all in a big old house with secret passages. Perhaps not a classic for the ages, but a good old romp. Just to sharpen the setup, the lawyer calls a detective agency to provide a guard over Cyrus’ body, but the guard is ambushed at the front door and put out of the way.

Into this stumbles Albert Tuttle, insurance salesman, who’s initially mistaken as the guard. Set on selling life insurance to Rutherford, terrified of dead bodies, bad weather, beautiful women, and being sunk into ponds full of koi, he’s the farcical, romantic element which spoils the beginnings of what could have been a good whodunit.

Not that there were no other problems. Characters are a little too cut and dried, and alternatives to good old greed are not really considered, and this particular print had a number of technical problems. Still, the addition of farce was a poor idea, and makes it hard to do much more than acknowledge that we sat through this jarring little shadow thrower.

Word Of The Day

Overweening:

  1. presumptuously conceited, overconfident, or proud:
    a brash, insolent, overweening fellow.
  2. exaggerated, excessive, or arrogant:
    overweening prejudice; overweening pride. [Dictionary.com]

I used it here yesterday. Interestingly enough, there’s actually ‘weening‘:

verb (used with or without object) Archaic.

  1. to think; suppose.
  2. to expect, hope, or intend.

I wish they’d shown how to use it in a sentence. Dictionary.com admits to no underweening.

One Data Point Guarantees Nothing

I hope former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA) is sweating, because this statement is a trifle ridiculous:

Nonetheless, many in Trump’s world say an impeachment fight will benefit the president politically. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, a Trump ally, predicted impeachment proceedings would backfire on House Democrats just as they did on House Republicans when he led the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and was accused of overreach.

“The Democrats have been sucked into a cul-de-sac where they will, from Trump’s perspective, run around chanting, ‘Impeach!’ ” Gingrich said. “I think that the president is very comfortable. It irritates [him], but he’s very comfortable strategically with what’s evolving.” [WaPo]

With all due respect to the Republicans of Gingrich’s era, they basically prosecuted a man for blow job. It may have been accompanied by some abuse of power, but the abuse itself was trivial.

And the American public saw that.

There is nothing trivial in the allegations of abuse of power by President Trump. It is the task of the Democrats, and whichever Republicans join them, to communicate the gravity of these abuses, and the clarity with which they can be seen.

Gingrich, the quitter (he resigned from the House as Speaker after his Party did relatively poorly in the midterms of 1998, and shortly thereafter gave up his seat), continues to think this is a game with little consequence for the nation. But he’s wrong, and I hope the rest of the nation, and Congress, figures that out.