Category Archives: Uncategorized

Our second visit to this year’s edition of the Minnesota Fringe Festival yielded these two shows:

• Juliet & Juliet: Improvised Shakespeare is a delightfully goofy improv show. The two leads take contributed themes and ideas and try, more or less successfully, to weave them into a mini-play set in Shakespeare’s time and language. Nothing serious here, but certainly fun.
• The Untold Myth of Medusa, The Musical; Part 1 retells the story of Medusa before she was saddled with that mess of snakes, coming up with the abuse of a brave woman. Painfully preachy in parts, badly sung in others, it appeared to me to be more of a graphic lesson of the dramatic disasters that occur when attempting to integrate the logic of humanity with the logic of the gods; or, a lesson in never interacting with the oversexed, under-challenged gods.

As uneven as a Fringe experience should be.

Reading Erick Erickson’s occasional missive on how “God has this, don’t worry,” and then to read the following ca sometimes jar one’s teeth in one’s head:

2024 began as a referendum between two deeply disliked men, one of whom is an incumbent with a bad economy and his predecessor who had a great economy until a global pandemic undid it. 2024 is ending with everyone remembering they hate Trump and not knowing who Kamala Harris is. Trump can still win it, but he seems intent on reminding people they do not like him while ignoring Harris’s record. His latest comment won’t cost him the election. They will just keep him from gaining ground and rebuilding momentum less than 100 days before the election.

It’s a stampede of six-legged horses, isn’t it?

• Polls show Biden is not disliked, but instead old enough that people began to worry that he couldn’t do the job. It’s an illustration of the tragedy of growing old.
• OK, he may have Trump right as being disliked, but the MAGA base might argue it. Or they might not.
• The fantasy that we exist in a bad economy that, until this last month, had a record setting low unemployment rate continues; meanwhile, third party evaluators see the United States as having a world-leading economy.
• Trump didn’t rescue the economy from disaster in 2017, but rather rode a roaring economy, inherited from Obama, while boasting he’d created it. Obama, cleaning up after the Republicans as usual, gave him a lovely gift.
• Erickson skips the question of Federal debt, which jumped under Trump and his 2017 “tax reforms”:

  What’s that you say, Biden’s debt went up, too? Yes, that’s right! Cleaning up after the Republicans’ clownish behavior, aka Gingrich’s Don’t let them have a victory!, of the previous four years is an expensive business, not in the least helped with “holding the line on taxes.”

• Trump can still win it, really? We’re not talking about a judicious, mature man. We’re talking about a demented narcissist, with acting skills, intent on preparing himself for becoming God’s favorite. while grooving on the adoration of crowds who mistake his actions as that of a successful businessman … which he isn’t. Meanwhile, the general electorate becomes more and more uneasy about him, the disaffected young voters have become fascinated with Harris, the VP selection process of the Democrats heightens the anticipation, while the Republicans have lost that focus, and Republican donors are supposedly yammering for a do-over on the pick, Senator J. D. Vance, whose views on various issues appear to be calibrated for winning nominations from the weirdo-right, not independents.
• And, finally, Trump has assumed the mantle of yesterday. He talks about migrants taking Black jobs, not understanding the segregational aspect’s assumptions are outdated and racist. He still whines about his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, still trying to convince anyone that Biden cheated. He projects his own inclinations on Harris, such as outright cheating and stopping at nothing – see Jan 6, 2021 – to win, rather than letting voters decide who’s better. He lacks a fundamental understanding of why things work the way they work. There’s a reason why his mentor, Roy Cohn, is despised rather than worshiped, and it has nothing to do with Cohn’s supposed sexuality. Some Americans believe Trump is the right way to go, and some of that is due to blunders by the Left.Meanwhile, Harris has sought, and perhaps successfully assumed, the mantle of a bright future. From the economy to justice, she represents what appears to be a way forward that seems, especially to the younger voters who, despite their inexperience, think they see the injustices of today mirrored in the eyes of Mr. Trump and his supporters. There is something to be said for the judgement of those lacking investments in the current societal order.

I do feel sorry for Erickson, because his own misjudgment towards abortion makes the idea of compromise, of even switching sides, completely repugnant. Does he fail to see the utter lack of virtue in Mr Trump and his allies? I would certainly hope so.

But he doesn’t seem to get it. Once in a while he expresses disgust, but that’s about it.

Is this Whack-A-Mole?

The Most Dangerous Game (1932) is a familiar story: nasty bit of work likes to hunt The most dangerous animal!, and that leads to a horrific conclusion …. for someone. In this version, a number of victims have been killed and then deprived of their skins by Zaroff, and when big-game hunter Bob Rainsford lugs himself onto Zaroff’s beach, he finds Zaroff, Eve Trowbridge and her brother, Martin the Alcoholic with the Annoying Voice.

So one loses their skin and another picks up the title Official Victim, but he’s slippery and daring.

But there’s little to really rouse our sympathies. Oh, it’s not like Al Capone is being hunted, but the good guys are really too good. Rather than the Victims becoming victims and maybe losing a few of them because of character traits, it’s really more of someone having the idea of the Big Hunt and forgot to develop it further.

But the dogs are really, really cool. And I enjoyed some of the cinematography more than I should have. So that was a nice positive.

I forgot to mention the Minnesota Fringe Festival started today. We saw two shows at Open Eye Theatre:

• Secrets Under the Christmas Tree: A Deedee Wallaby Mystery by Deft Pictures concerns machinations in a family, of smart strong women and their cloddish, needy husbands. I felt the script needed several rewrites, and more rehearsals, but my Arts Editor thought it clever and it made her laugh.
• 5 x 5 by Transatlantic Love Affair, a sellout, is a collection of five stories told tréteau style by a theatre company with an excellent representation, and even if this felt like it was slapped together at the last moment, it still connects to the audience early and often. We hadn’t seen them in a decade, and they are still excellent. Pay attention to the Fringe rules on sellouts and order your tickets to this one online to be sure you are allowed in.

A bridal dress show, punctuated by my Arts Editor’s exclamations of Oh, exquisite! and Western bridal dresses have nothing on this! She is a former master tailor who ran a bridal shop, so I pay attention.

The Internet and its spawn, the Web, are, in a sense, an irresistible honeypot^[1]. While we fall down “rabbit holes,” numerous firms are collecting out information: credit cards, addresses, purchase information, all used to build personal profiles to sell to those wishing to target you for goals licit and illicit, legal profit to theft.

WaPo’s Michelle Singletary demonstrates general consumer ignorance on the matter:

Whenever possible, push back when companies ask for information they don’t actually need.

Once, as I was picking up some furniture, the clerk wanted to take my driver’s license and scan a copy into the retailer’s computer system.

“No, sir,” I said.

He insisted the information was needed to keep a record of the items that were picked up by customers. Nonsense. I had a receipt. But I was okay with him verifying my identity by eyeballing my license.

There was a long line of customers behind me, visibly annoyed — blowing their breath, rolling their eyes. I told the employee, loudly enough for them to hear, that the store’s policy was unnecessary and that it could expose me to identity theft should their system be hacked. Every piece of information that is compromised helps criminals improve their tactics in targeting victims.

And we see the hacking every day, with notices from vendors announcing the access of information describing you with mind-numbing regularity. Sometimes we receive mail from vendors we’ve never heard of announcing a victorious hack of them, and now our credit card information is floating about in the dark version of the Internet, available for a small fee, and because it’s digital, it can be copied and sold an infinite number of times. The lower prices made possible by the indiscriminate copying entices more and more criminals, like a hive of vicious wasps presented with a ham sandwich.

So where is this going to end? Are there penalties for the security-deficient firms, legal or market, that motivates improved security behavior? Is the problem too difficult to solve?

Or, someday, will we see firms begin to flee the Internet? Will we see a great rush among the non-Amazons to announce that they no longer use the Internet for customer-facing applications, for their financial facets, for even supplier interactions?

Will there ever be a first? Or will the lure of bigger profits continue to keep every firm in line?

¹ Honeypot is a cybersecurity term for one or more systems on the Internet that appear to be loaded with valuable information. They distract a criminal (let’s not glorify them with “cybercriminal”, they’re simply destructive parasites) with faux-information while those hosting the honeypot collect information from the criminal.

I’d draw a person, labeled American Electorate, and a huge mosquito, hovering neck-high, proboscis plunged into the neck, labeled Project 2025.

Maybe it’s too obvious, though.

Lately the pundits have been upset over Mr Trump’s remark at a recent rally, as provided by Professor Richardson:

On Friday, speaking to Christians at the Turning Point Action Believers’ Summit in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump begged the members of the audience to “vote. Just this time. You won’t have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what: it’ll be fixed, it’ll be fine…. In four years, you don’t have to vote again, we’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”

The comment drew a lot of attention, and on Monday, Fox News Channel personality Laura Ingraham gave him a chance to walk the statement back. Instead, he said: “I said, vote for me, you’re not going to have to do it ever again. It’s true.” “Don’t worry about the future. You have to vote on November 5. After that, you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care, because we’re going to fix it. The country will be fixed and we won’t even need your vote anymore, because frankly we will have such love, if you don’t want to vote anymore, that’s OK.”

Reality?

You can approach this as many intellectuals might, employing close reading to discern Mr Trump’s meaning. By doing so, I came to the conclusion that he probably means all the problems that bother the Christian Nationalists will be fixed in four years. The bureaucracy will be gutted, military stripped of non-Christian Nationalist leadership, EPA shrunk or eliminated, etc.

But, of course, that strips context. What context? Mr Trump’s mendacity is legendary at this juncture, to such an extent that his being even close in the Presidential race is a real black eye for America.

So don’t use close reading when evaluating Mr. Trump. I’m sure some intellectuals feel close reading is their strength, but, like reading for QAnon clues about the future, just don’t. It’ll lead you astray and waste your time.

Dicta:

Plural of dictum:

1. : a noteworthy statement: such as
   1. : a formal pronouncement of a principle, proposition, or opinion
      awaiting the king’s dictum
   2. : an observation intended or regarded as authoritative
      must follow the dictum “First, do no harm”
2. law : a judge’s expression of opinion on a point other than the precise issue involved in determining a case [Merriam-Webster]

Noted in “How Samuel Alito got canceled from the Supreme Court social media majority,” Joan Biskupic, CNN/Politics:

Plainly irked by the turn of events, Alito wrote in his final concurring opinion that Kagan’s First Amendment pronouncements amounted only to “nonbinding dicta” that lower courts need not follow.

Such lines between core principles of a decision, or mere dicta, are often fuzzy and the source of disagreement among lower court judges – and even the justices themselves. But, despite Alito’s protest, Kagan had a majority signing her decision, which, at minimum, offers lower court judges a strong indication of the framework the high court majority would use in future online challenges.

The decision is interesting to me because I faced similar issues, albeit and thankfully not in Court, from time to time in the 1980s. One fellow seemed to want me to guarantee his copyright on the poetry he was putting up on my BBS, which I refused. More of a Wild West time.

The cycle continues.

It’s raining polls, or at least it was, but hardhats are optional.

Compaction

The pollsters, possibly motivated by the withdrawal of President Biden and his endorsement of Vice President Harris to replace him on the ballot for next term – it’s not final yet, or, if you’re a Republican, a fait accompli, in its pejorative, yet slightly admiring sense – are heavily polling the battleground states, presumably to see how Harris’ move upwards is affecting voter inclinations for both the Presidential election and the downballot results.

In order to save both time and my hands, which is not a joke after being a touch typist for 45 years, I’ll be skipping the conversational part of reporting numbers, only turning to chatty convo for any analysis I add. The actual number format will be obvious.

Timing

But not Olympic timing. Most of these polls are since President Biden dropped out in favor of Vice President Harris and so constitute some of the earliest measures of Harris’ impact on Senate races.

What Am I To Make Of Fox News Polls?

Fox News is sponsoring polls by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, which has a very respectable 2.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.

For those readers who stay in the comfortable bubble of Fox News, I will connect you with everyone else by saying that Fox News, despite its leading audience size, does not have any respect of those with knowledge of the news. They are known to tilt the news for Mr. Trump’s benefit, by such means as not correcting his misstatements, altered pictures, and with opinion shows that attack political adversaries of Mr Trump’s with false information. Doubt it? Agreeing to a $787.5 million settlement in the case of Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News Network is absolute proof of their guilt and complicity. If you want the true measure of Fox News, and not some flustered But our audience, Our revenues!, ask for their count of Pulitzer Prizes. That’s the true measure of excellence in the journalism sector.

That said, polling results issued by Fox News Polls have won praise from third parties and liberals in the past, while conservatives probably grumble. That a known partisan organization issues accurate polling results is a point for them – and makes them an important component of any attempt to analyze aggregate polling results. And they use somewhat larger sample sizes (people interviewed) than do most other pollsters, which may explain their historical accuracy. Remember all this when noting results from Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research, below.

Enough Chitchat, Eh?

• In Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) continues to lead challenger David McCormick (R-PA?) in all polls: North Star Opinion Research (1.2, right-leaning) 49%-41%, Emerson College (2.9) 48%-44%, The Bullfinch Group (unknown) 53%-42%, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) 46%-39%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 55%-42%. McCormick’s chances, in view of that last poll sponsored by Fox News, are looking dim, but there’s still 100 days, three months, left.
• In Arizona prospective Senate nominees Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Kari Lake (R-AZ) in the Emerson College (2.9) poll 46%-42%. Primaries are July 30, next Tuesday, and I’ll be greatly interested in whether or not Arizona Republicans select Lake or someone else. If it’s Lake or someone off to her right, independents may be more likely to vote for Gallego in November, and the impression I’ve picked up from reports on Lake, former Republican Chair Kelli Ward, and other Arizona Republicans is that they have gone off the cliff. But Lake was reportedly booed at a convention a ways back, a reaction congruent with many positions. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be instructive.
• In Wisconsin Senator Baldwin  (D-WI) leads prospective GOP nominee Eric Hovde (R-WI?) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 49%-43%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 54%-43%, While Wisconsin primaries are August 13, Baldwin does not face a primary challenger, yet. In the Republican primary, wealthy businessman Hovde is facing Rejani Raveendran, a 40 year old immigrant from India who is a single mother of three, a former nurse, and currently a student pursuing a degree in political science – kudos for doing the right thing! – and Charles Barman, who appears to be a chronic candidate. Hovde, in the absence of primary polling, seems to have the most reasonable expectation of winning the primary. But the Fox News Poll result of Baldwin holding a lead in the 50% range makes the Wisconsin race seem close to finished. As the Emerson College result is not far off from the Fox News result, it may be time to take Wisconsin off the list of hot races.
• In Michigan prospective Senate nominees Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leads former Rep Mike Roger (R-MI) in all polls: Emerson College (2.9) 45%-41%, Glengariff Group (1.5) 46%-41%, Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (2.8) 51%-46%, Primaries are Aug 6. The Fox News Poll showing Slotkin advancing into the 50% range against GOP favorite Rogers does not yet suggest the race is over to me, as I’d like to see confirming polls, not to mention the primary, but it does suggest a mountain to climb for Rogers that is much steeper than Slotkin’s. This could all become irrelevant, though, on the day after the primary if either one, both facing opposition in said primaries, loses.
• Missouri Democrats worry about putting candidates through a primary in a limited resource environment, but I think it’s the right thing to do so long as it’s fairly run and transparent. The benefits of sharpening messages and introducing one’s self to voters are simply too important. We’re not talking about a prize at the finish line, but the selection of someone who will make serious governance decisions as well as replace a self-proclaimed Christian Nationalist in the person of prospective GOP nominee Senator Hawley (R-MO). Missouri primaries are August 10.
• In Nevada Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) in the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (1.8), 45%-40%.
• Florida has been absent polling numbers for a while, but the announcement of President Biden’s decision to remove himself from the Presidential race and his endorsement of Vice President Harris has excited younger Florida voters, according to Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). From the same source, Scott is trying to keep the focus on the Gaza conflict, which is a difficult issue. A bit of polling would be interesting.

Summary

Even though it’s early days, some races that were thought to be tight are beginning to look like they are cool or cold. I’d put in that category Pennsylvania (Casey vs McCormick) and Wisconsin (Baldwin vs Hovde). Michigan (Slotkin vs Rogers), an open seat, remains hot, as does Texas (Cruz vs Allred), Montana (Tester vs Sheehy), and Nevada (Rosen vs Brown). Florida may also be hot. West Virginia remains on the cold list as a GOP flip until polling suggests otherwise, and I don’t expect to see that.

Where would I like to see more polls? Ideally, everywhere, but that takes unavailable resources. Since I have the impression that most Democratic incumbents are solid, I’d prioritize all open seats, then all Republican seats, then all Democratic seats. Just because Dobbs is such a huge disruption that even States in which Republicans dominate will be vulnerable to angry women voters.

Tomorrow has Arizona primaries.

Naptime, his favorite time of the day.

Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) is definitely a movie for cult member and the in-crowd. Jokes involving Deadpool’s past, the studios making this movie, even studio heads fly thick and fast. Not to mention jokes concerning  Wolverine and the multiverse.

Which is all very silly and, for those of us not knowledgeable fans, rather incomprehensible.

Still, there are charming bits, including aspirations to make the violence charming. Not quite there.

So don’t see this unless you’re a fan, curious, or like dogs.

Did I say dogs? Forget I said dogs.

And don’t drop a lot of moolah on this one.

Virome:

The human body hosts vast microbial communities, termed the microbiome. Less well known is the fact that the human body also hosts vast numbers of different viruses, collectively termed the ‘virome’. Viruses are believed to be the most abundant and diverse biological entities on our planet, with an estimated 10³¹ particles on Earth. The human virome is similarly vast and complex, consisting of approximately 10¹³ particles per human individual, with great heterogeneity. [“The human virome: assembly, composition and host interactions,” Guanxiang Liang & Frederic D. Bushman, nature reviews/microbiology]

Noted in “The vital viruses that shape your microbiome and your health,” Linda Geddes, NewScientist (13 July 2024, paywall):

“What is interesting about bacteriophages and other viruses in the gut is that every person has their own unique set, with almost no overlap between different people,” says Evelien Adriaenssens at the Quadram Institute in Norwich, UK. One of her interests is understanding where these viruses come from, which she is investigating by analysing stool samples from women and their newborn infants and following them over time. “What we see is that healthy infants are born without a noticeable virome, then, in the first couple of weeks of life, they acquire one, together with the bacteria and all of the other components of the microbiome,” says Adriaenssens.

Fascinating stuff.

An academic effort to track the dissemination of misinformation in such domains as politics and medicine is stumbling, due, I suspect, to the Internet:

From time to time there are reports that the Houthi of Yemen have shot missiles at another ship, and I wonder what they hope to accomplish. Maybe this is it?

Revenue registered by the Suez Canal for fiscal year 2023/24 fell by more than $2 billion, as attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to disrupt global trade and cause rerouting.

Yemen’s Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea region since November 2023, calling the strikes a direct response to Israeli military operations in Gaza after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. [AL-Monitor]

Do the Houthi consider Egypt friend or foe? And I had no idea that they were having that sort of impact on Canal revenue.

When Senator Menendez (I-NJ) was initially indicted on bribery charges in 2023, he was D-NJ. The following Senators called for his resignation at or around that time:

• Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania
• Democratic Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont
• Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio
• Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin
• Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana
• Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
• Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada
• Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
• Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico
• Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey
• Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona
• Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado
• Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
• Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
• Democratic Sen. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii
• Democratic Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts
• Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire
• Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia
• Democratic Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan
• Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont
• Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut
• Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut
• Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois
• Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper of Colorado
• Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia
• Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
• Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois
• Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland
• Democratic Sen. Patty Murray of Washington
• Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington
• Democratic Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware

[Business Insider]

At least them, there might have been more. Now that Senator Menendez is a convict, the following have also called for his resignation:

• Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY)
• Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD)

There may be more on the Democratic side, as I haven’t the time to be obsessive. However, as Steve Benen notes, the Republican side is easier:

In fact, while the list of Senate Democrats calling on Menendez to resign grew — and continues to grow — there was no comparable push among Senate Republicans. GOP senators learned that one of their colleagues had just been convicted on corruption charges, but they made no real effort to show him the door.

Now, I could go on about reasons, maybe they felt a kinship with Senator Menendez, etc, but what caught my eyes is their lose-lose scenario they’ve entered into:

• They’ve claimed to be the law & order party – see Rep Emmer (R-MN) here – but this is no Republican law and order frenzy.
• Perhaps they feel that Menendez did what he was convicted of, which is taking bribes and other abuses of position, but their reaction is So What? That’s what we might expect to see from the Grifting Party.
• Maybe they feel the Democrats have enough rope and will strangle themselves. Unfortunately for them, the Democrats have better leaders and did the right thing – perhaps even prematurely – which should impress observers.
• If the Republicans are worried about insalubrious comparisons between Senator Menendez, Mr Trump, and disparate Republican reactions – does that mean they think anyone outside of the political classes is paying attention? Do they think the average voter will have any knowledge of the Senator’s straits? If so, that’s a surprise.
• Or maybe they just don’t want to tread on Mr Trump’s delicate sensibilities.

I look forward to what may be futile efforts to tie Democrats to the Menendez debacle.

Bibliotoxicology:

Greater awareness has risen recently concerning the phenomenon of “Poison Books”: that is, books containing pigments composed of heavy metals that are known to be hazardous to human health. Mercury, lead, chromium and arsenic-based pigments are generally the elements known to be present in bindings-they’re used to color the book-covering cloth, leather and/or paper- chiefly within the 19th century (largely the 1840’s-1860’s), and most likely of European or American publishing origin. [“Bibliotoxicology,” Doug Sanders, IU Libraries]

Noted in “Old books can be loaded with poison. Some collectors love the thrill.”, Ashley Stimpson, WaPo:

A PAC is a Political Action Committee, which collects donations and uses them to produce political messages and find space in media to place them in front of eyeballs. I think the notorious George Conway, lawyer and NeverTrumper for many years now, has the best name:

THE ANTI-PSYCHOPATH PAC

And that’s all I wanted to say.

This keeps happening, just like last time. Too much morbid fascination, I suppose.

President Biden deciding to leave the Presidential race means what?

Not a great deal for the Senate races. The Dobbs decision is really independent of President Biden, and that’s what will motivate women to vote and to kick some male ass. A President Harris will have the same policies on abortion as does Biden.

That said, Biden leaving the race may motivate a few more Never Trumpers to get out and vote, excited by a Harris vs Trump race.

It’s worth remembering virtually none of these polls were performed after July 21st, which is when Biden announced he was no longer running.

And If Kamala Harris Pins Down The Nomination?

Her impact on the Senate races will depend on the quality of her rhetoric and vociferousness.

What About Public Policy Polling?

With a rating of 1.4 on FiveThirtyEight’s scale of three stars, they seem to be a favorite of Democrat-aligned organizations, such as Clean & Prosperous America and Progress Action Fund. It’s probably a mistake to choose them, though, as that 1.4 is not impressing me.

So how does it look?

• Public Policy Polling (see above) gives Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) an 11 point lead, 50%-39%, over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?). Seems reasonable, if a bit on the liberal side, except that the sponsor is Clean & Prosperous America, a Democrat-aligned organization, so there may be a tilt to this result. Add in the mediocre rating and this may not be worth remembering. And when they polled for Progress Action Fund, the lead shrinks to 3 points, 47%-44%. Meanwhile, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) is harder to judge, as they give Senator Casey a 44%-37% lead. Finally, mysterious but probably right-wing SoCal (unknown rating), working for On Point Politics, gives Casey a large 10 point lead, 50%-40%. The latter poll is sponsored by On Point Politics, a right-wing organization that is still advertising that Trump will defeat Biden in a landslide. Apparently, they were caught off-balance by the idea that things can change over a few months of campaigning, err, Trump will self-destruct per usual, I’ll get this right, Biden would outmaneuver the right with a well-timed withdrawal, as reluctant as he was to do so. I’m not bothering with reading their site, as it feels like a political echo site, but I do have to wonder what they thought Trump could do if the Senate stays in the Democratic column, and possibly even gains a seat or two. I don’t think anyone doubts that the House, packed with Republicans like Gaetz and Greene and Boebert, will return to Democratic control come January.
• Public Policy Polling (1.4) gives Michigan’s Rep Slotkin (D-MI) an 8 point lead, 46%-38%, over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). Once again, the poll sponsor is Clean & Prosperous America, see the Pennsylvania entry, above, for further remarks. Then PPP double-dips for Progress Action Fund and gives Slotkin a ten point lead, 45%-35%, which seems unlikely. EPIC-MRA (2.0) gives Slotkin (D-MI) a three point lead, 43%-40%, over Rogers (R-MI). Primaries are still to come.
• Tit For Tat: Skip the tawdry jokes, please. In Nebraska Senator Fischer (R-NB) has a huge lead over challenger Dave Osborn (I-NB), 50%-24%. Two problems: The pollster is Torchlight Strategies (see here for its last mention), unranked by FiveThirtyEight, and the sponsor is … Deb Fischer. I’m not sure why this poll is even listed by FiveThirtyEight.

  If we take this poll at face value, it sounds like doom, except for this bit:

  More than 75% of the Nebraskans surveyed had no opinion of Osborn, didn’t know who he was or declined to share an opinion of him. Fischer was known to all but 14% of those polled. [Nebraska Examiner]

  That leads to an overextended Osborn claim:

  Osborn’s campaign has said the race is closer than indicated by the Fischer poll. The campaign has pointed to a Public Policy Polling survey from May that indicated Fischer led 37%-33%, with a 3.7% margin of error.

  Dude, this is July, not May. Osborn’s later return shot is a lot like Fischer’s, a poll he sponsored from Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact Research that shows Osborn and Fischer tied at 42%. But who is Red Wave? FiveThirtyEight shrugs. Their web site claims they’re conservatives, but what sort? Impact Research has a 1.5 rating, which is nothing about which to brag, but I believe they claim to Democrat-aligned.

  To summarize, there’s nothing to summarize. Neither poll is worth the bits they’ve consumed.

• Unknown pollster ActiVote is giving Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) an 8 point lead, 54%-46%, over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX). This is out of line with YouGov’s (2.9) recent assessment of a 3 point lead, ActiVote’s sample size was only 400, which seems small for a big state like Texas, and it has a margin of error of 4.9%, which is a bit large. I feel a wave of skepticism coming on, but maybe that’s just me listening to Andrew Sullivan interview Erick Erickson on religious subjects.
• Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) suggests Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) by 4 points, 41%-37%. Seems a bit low. The sponsor is The Telegraph, of which I’m not really aware except that it seems to be an overseas publication.
• In Wisconsin Public Policy Polling gives Senator Baldwin (D-WI) a 51%-43% lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) for Progress Action Fund. This is congruent with the previous poll from Republican-leaning North Star Opinion Research and American Greatness. Mr Hovde does not appear to be making progress against the incumbent.
• Resignation is more honorable than a boot up the butt. Senator Menendez (D-NJ, errr, I-NJ) has announced his intention to resign his seat on August 20th; the delay is presumably to give New Jersey Governor Murphy (D-NJ) time to select a replacement for immediate appointment and retain the Democratic Senate majority. Senator Menendez, as noted in this update, was convicted on all counts resulting from a Federal bribery scandal. This conviction (convictions?) not only may be ridding us of a weak member of the Senate, but also tears the legs off the Republican talking point that the DoJ has been weaponized by the Biden Administration. The resignation, in response to Senator Schumer’s (D-NY) request that he resign, reinforces the idea that the Democrats, despite other flaws, are still more honorable than the party that sports such names as Gaetz and Greene.Menendez did not address the issue of running for reelection as an independent. He has filed the papers to do so.

  And there’s no tall walls keeping the governor from appointing Rep and candidate for the Senate seat Kim to the seat. Republicans hate that idea, which tells me that, chairs reversed, they’d do it in a second. Still, it is true that California governor Newsom (D-CA) did appoint a caretaker, now-Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA), to the seat of the late Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) when she died last year. Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA) and MLB great Steve Garvey (R-CA) are now running for that seat.

• In Arizona Public Opinion Polling is again double-dipping, telling Progress Action Fund that Rep Gallego (D-AZ) leads election-denier and former newscaster Kari Lake (R-AZ) by three points, 50%-47%, while telling the PAC Clean and Prosperous America that Gallego’s lead is seven points, 49%-42%. There were fewer voters in the former poll, so its margin of error will be larger, although whether or not that’s significant is beyond me. My guess is that the sponsors have different parameters for adjustments. Primaries happen July 30, and while Gallego has no challengers, Lake faces adversaries for this open seat, occupied by the retiring Senator Sinema (I-AZ, formerly D-AZ).
• Democrats may dream of defeating Senator Hawley (R-MO) of Missouri, but when the strongest news is that probable opponent Lance Kunce (D-MO) has outraised him, $2.8 million to $1.8 million, it’s not a convincing sign, because money flows easily over State borders.

As always, much of the above data derives from FiveThirtyEight.

My excuse is that I was on vacation when Rep Emmer (R-MN) suffered this mental breakdown:

Emmer: Donald Trump stands with the people and the police, our men and women in blue, not with the criminals and rioters. pic.twitter.com/WnHrKWI1Qf

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 17, 2024

Emmer: Donald Trump stands with the people and the police, our men and women in blue, not with the criminals and rioters.

Donald J. Trump:

Donald Trump says the rioters who assaulted police officers in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot are “warriors.” [Los Angeles Times]

Will his constituents recognize his condition and move on to someone else? This is one way to earn a Landgrebe nomination.

Naturally, VP Harris will now be the victim of attacks, mischaracterizations, and all that sort of thing. Here’s Erick Erickson, trying to keep the herd together:

Democrats publicly say that Donald Trump is a threat to democracy. Privately, many Democrat politicians do not believe it. Privately, many of them see Kamala Harris as a weak candidate and a threat to their own ambitions. If Harris were to win in 2024, she’d be the incumbent running for re-election in 2028. That would put Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and plenty of others far out of office and out of the spotlight by the time 2032 rolls around.

Do you really think they want Harris to win? Really?

First, she’s weak or she’s a threat, but both is deeply unlikely.

Harris is also a deeply flawed candidate. Here’s the New York Times from 2020. …

In October 2023, Harris tried her fourth reboot as Vice President. But by then, the New York Times noted that Democrats were beginning to question whether Harris should be replaced. Yes, less than a year ago, Democrats were speculating that Biden should oust Harris. …

On the one-year anniversary of her tenure as Vice President, the BBC ran a story titled, “Kamala Harris one year: Where did it go wrong for her?”

Politico declared, “There is dysfunction inside the VP’s office, aides and administration officials say. And it’s emanating from the top.”

But Erickson’s dealing in rumors, many from years and years ago. Again, Harris is either weak or dangerous, but she’s been receiving a master class in politicking from demonstrated master President Biden, and she’d already graduated into an advanced program through her years in the Senate.

Erickson wants us to believe Harris a weak, divisive candidate, and maybe he’s right. But right now, very early in the game, it all sounds like malicious rumor-mongering from someone who realizes his own master criminal Party leader is something of a joke.

And what will the electorate care about the internal workings of her campaign, anyways?

For all that President Biden seems to have been forced, by the opinions of his fellow Party-members, to a certain degree this may have been his most sagacious political maneuver ever. Consider this (vague) timeline:

1. Mt. Trump is shot. He shows a bit of gumption, no doubt due to being a blowhard.
2. Rep Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) proclaims …
   

   “President Trump survives this attack — he just won the election,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) told POLITICO in a brief interview shortly after the shooting.

   I’m sure some Trump supporters credit God for his survival, although exactly which one would not be clear.

3. Mr. Trump appears at the RNC and delivers a speech that could have advanced his cause, but, by all reports, his initial attempts to call for unity collapsed into an unsurprisingly selfish, all-about-him replay of all his false claims. Opportunity blown, as his connection with much of America is tenuous.
4. Still, President Biden loses a point or so. Points are precious, as they’re generally hard to gain in this political era.
5. Yesterday, President Biden removes himself from the ticket in favor of Vice President Harris. And … Mr. Trump is so yesterday.

Yes, intended or not, this is how to jerk the focus of the media away from Mr. Trump and place it on the Democrats and their presumptive nominee, VP Harris. She’s already attracting a tidal wave of donations, and a summary of her expected strategy is devastating: prosecutor versus felon.

Polls are ambivalent, but if Harris can turn in a credible performance, day after day, I expect independents will gradually begin shifting to Harris. Trump, after all, is an ugly character with multiple felony convictions and a reputation for sexual assault and, via Dobbs, endangering women. The trick will be to get men to quit gravitating towards an idiot, which is a male tradition, and either not vote, or vote Harris.

This balance of this campaign should be unique.

I’m not sure where my Arts Editor came up with this – probably FB – but it makes me laugh.

President Biden.

President Biden announced he’ll be retiring from the political scene in November, and not standing for reelection. He has endorsed Vice President Harris for the Presidency.

My sympathies to President Biden. He’s had a unique political career: Representative, Senator, former Presidential candidate rejected for alleged plagiarism, vice president to one of the most highly rated Presidents, and then President, but now for only a single term. He’ll be highly rated by historians in fifty years, especially in the context of two of the worst Presidents, Bush and Trump. It must be disappointing to have to leave the race after an unfortunate debate performance against a determined loser like Trump, especially in light of a term fill with accomplishments.  For those who’d dispute that claim, just remember: cleaning up after Trump and his Republican Congress, determined to bankrupt America, is an expensive proposition in terms of inflation, but the alternative was even worse.

Perhaps his recent Covid diagnosis and symptoms are also affecting him.

I had reluctantly concluded he was the best candidate back in 2019/2020, but was concerned about his age, and that’s caught up with him. I had hoped that he’d make it through this self-inflicted crisis, convinced that as voters began comparing the two Presidents and what they’re saying, they’d realize that Trump is a demented old man, allied with flying nutcases of many varieties: Proud Boys, Nazis, Evangelicals, all with their own delusions of why they should be in charge.

Not that all of Biden’s allies are sensible. One or two don’t seem to know how liberal democracies work. But Biden’s record of a recovering economy, return to world leadership, effective support of Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, all dangerous but necessary enterprises, speaks for itself. I believed he would put his boot right up Trump’s ass in the end.

Vice President Harris, I guess it’ll be your boot up his ass. I’m confident you can do that.