Category Archives: Uncategorized

Remember the huge Foxconn campus that was to be developed in Wisconsin? The one where people were kicked out of their homes in order to make room for it? I think former Governor Scott Walker (R-WI) and his cohorts in the Wisconsin legislature, current and former, are trying to forget about it, because it appears to be an epic fail. The Verge leads off with this spectacular opening:

HOPES WERE HIGH among the employees who joined Foxconn’s Wisconsin project in the summer of 2018. In June, President Donald Trump had broken ground on an LCD factory he called “the eighth wonder of the world.” The scale of the promise was indeed enormous: a $10 billion investment from the Taiwanese electronics giant, a 20 million-square-foot manufacturing complex, and, most importantly, 13,000 jobs.

Which is why new recruits arriving at the 1960s office building Foxconn had purchased in downtown Milwaukee were surprised to discover they had to provide their own office supplies. “One of the largest companies in the world, and you have to bring your own pencil,” an employee recalls wondering. Maybe Foxconn was just moving too fast to be bothered with such details, they thought, as they brought their laptops from home and scavenged pencils left behind by the building’s previous tenants. They listened to the cries of co-workers trapped in the elevators that often broke, noted the water that occasionally leaked from the ceiling, and wondered when the building would be transformed into the gleaming North American headquarters an executive had promised.

Granted, The Verge isn’t a Trump-supporting news source, but this is both interesting and unsurprising.

Foxconn would spend the next two years jumping from idea to idea — fish farms, exporting ice cream, storing boats — in an increasingly surreal search for some way to generate money from a doomed project. Frequent leadership changes, a reluctance to spend money, and a domineering corporate culture would create an atmosphere employees described as toxic. Many of the employees The Verge spoke with have since left the company, and all of them requested anonymity out of fear of retaliation. It has been a baffling ordeal for the people who thought they were building the Silicon Valley of the Midwest — “Wisconn Valley,” Walker called it — all the more so because so many others still believe the vision.

“All people see is the eighth wonder of the world,” said an employee. “I was there and it’s not real. I mean, it’s not. This is something I can’t talk about ever again, because people think you’re crazy, like none of this could ever happen. How could this happen in the US?”

That’s not a hard question to answer. For a political party full of arrogant third-raters, this is one of those reality moments when an entire group of people are shown to be naked – no matter how certain they are that they’re the Chosen of God.

Such people aren’t hard-nosed realists. Those who buy into one delusion often buy into many. But this ending to the “Wisconn” (to use Walker’s name) fantasy will surprise very few outside of the Party. They turned out to be just a bunch of goofball provincials who thought they knew something. Plus – if you’ll recall – President Trump, who falls into the same category.

Our era’s Teapot Dome scandal, as summarized by Professor Richardson:

… a number of senior administration officials and lawmakers from both parties are worried that the White House is fast-tracking a business deal worth billions of dollars in what is essentially a no-bid contract to a company associated with Republican operatives, including Karl Rove. The company, Rivada, wants to lease the Department of Defense’s mid-band spectrum. This spectrum is wildly valuable for the 5G market, the next-generation mobile network. Pentagon leaders are opposed to the deal since the military uses that spectrum, and they say they have not been able to study the effect of commercial use of the spectrum on military readiness. Pentagon lawyers say the White House has no authority to sell or lease its spectrum. Lawmakers of both parties oppose the deal. One senior official told CNN, “Something is really fishy about this.”

That, folks, would be known as a gusher for all the investors in Rivada, and it sounds like they’re trying to tickle that trout into their net, doesn’t it? This is emblematic of the mistake of thinking government is a business. It is is not, it is simply government, responsible for safeguarding the citizenry. When people with dollar signs in their eyes try to run it, this is what happens.

They think it’s a feast.

It’s time to get out and vote for professionals, the serious people who understand that government isn’t the enemy, but the servant of the people. It’s not a cave full of riches, but a place to serve honorably. It’s incidents like this which symbolize the debasement of the right: the prosperity churches, the relentless talk of money by Trump, and the loathing of procedures and norms developed over decades to stifle corruption.

And explains why so many moderate Republicans are endorsing Biden for President.

Nice fun:

h/t BS

After the Judiciary Committee, led by Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC), recommended the confirmation of Amy Barrett to SCOTUS, Steve Benen remarked:

But as part of this morning’s proceedings, Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) thought it’d be a good idea to deliver a little speech about how convinced he is that Republicans “did the right thing” by engaging in this obvious and ongoing abuse.

The South Carolinian began his remarks by reflecting on the events of 2013, when he and other GOP senators — in the minority at the time — refused to consider any nominees for the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, regardless of merit or qualification, because the president was a Democrat.

Senate Democrats responded by restoring majority rule to the process, and Graham this morning insisted that Republicans were the victim of what transpired. Reality makes clear he has this backwards.

The committee chairman proceeded to brag about voting for both of then-President Obama’s first two Supreme Court nominees, conveniently skipping past his treatment of Obama’s third.

All of which led to these comments:

“Now we find ourselves in a situation where qualifications no longer matter. It’s about holding open seats to have them filled after the next election, and we’ve lost sight that the individuals being nominated matter. I think they do matter.”

Graham then went back to patting himself on the back for a job well done.

To be sure, the Democratic members of the Committee boycotted the hearing. Still, I can’t help but think that one of those Senators might have been better served by playing a recording of Senator Graham pledging to not confirm a Justice if primaries have started for a Presidential election.

And then a follow-on statement would do nicely:

You, sir, are a hypocrite and a liar. I hope I never have to work with you again, because you are not trustworthy, and you bring dishonor upon your name and family.

I say this not in anger, but in sorrow, for at one time you held the best interests of the United States at heart, but now you are merely a power-hungry minion of President Trump, and that is no good thing.

Followed by a stalking from the chamber.

I like a little drama with my politics.

This isn’t going to do any of our careers any good. Here, drink this poisoned tea, it’ll lift your spirits.

The Gorilla (1939) starts off nicely enough as reports of murder and mayhem committed by man and gorilla crowd the local newspapers, and Stevens, who must do something lucrative but we don’t know what, receives a threatening phone call, followed by a note pinned to a maid’s collar as she reads Shakespeare to herself in bed by someone with a very hairy arm: Stevens will die soon.

But then he hires three detectives, and the plot takes a swirl down the ol’ toilet bowl as they turn out to be Marx Brothers wannabes. Stevens’ niece shows up, fiancee in tow, and she’s the heir to … something. The imperturbable butler (Bela Lugosi) must be responsible for something, lurking like that and appearing to become invisible, yeah? And who’s this dude demanding money, and the other with the badge and suave smile?

It’s all painfully incoherent, and while I liked the maid – she’s given the zingers – she’s not enough to save a story that depends on magic and the audience’s inability to keep track of all the plot holes.

Blech.

Lunar libration:

Most of us learned in school that the same side of the Moon always faces Earth. That’s not entirely true. The Moon actually wobbles back and forth, rocking and rolling as it elliptically orbits Earth. These lunar librations allow us to “peek around the edges.” Over time, up to 59% of the lunar surface can be observed from Earth. [Spaceweather.com]

Steve Benen puts the Hunter Biden story in context:

As Rachel noted in last night’s A block, in the not-too-distant past, if the United States saw an authoritarian leader try to prosecute his domestic rival ahead of an election, we’d help lead an international coalition to denounce such corruption. Now, this is happening here.

The fact that this is happening out in the open makes it all the more extraordinary. If an investigative journalist had uncovered a private White House memo in which Trump quietly urged the Justice Department to prosecute his opponent to help him win re-election, it would be on the front page of every newspaper in the country. It would likely become a presidency-defining scandal.

But in 2020, there is no private memo to uncover: Trump, indifferent and incapable of shame, took the message to a national television audience. The Republican incumbent, for the first time in American history, is openly and desperately trying to turn federal law enforcement into an appendage of his campaign.

Which moves me to wonder: will Donald J. Trump become the first American President to be marched off in disgrace, in handcuffs?

Look: If Giuliani is shown to be little more than creating false evidence, fed to him by the Russians, under orders from Trump, it’s not unreasonable to consider Trump to be a co-conspirator in leveling false accusations of a crime. And that’s a Federal crime.

Our law enforcement agencies are supposed to enforce the law against all citizens, up to and including the President, and while he may get a little leeway when it comes to parking his car illegally, serious felonies such as this one may be enough to tick off someone like FBI Director Christopher Wray.

And I can’t help but notice that Attorney General Barr remains silent. Sick? Embarrassed at discovering the walking mass of corruption to which he’s become associated?

Preparing an indictment against … Trump?

My recommendation to President Trump? Flee to Switzerland sooner rather than later.

Yesterday we got some very light snow, which made for a couple of nice pics.

Today, the Snow Gods dumped on us. I was too busy shoveling to bother with pictures.

When chronic lying is subjected to enough intense examination, it begins to shake apart like a flywheel with a bad part that’s being run way out beyond spec. More literally, this whitehouse.gov transcript demonstrates it to a T:

THE PRESIDENT: Look at the dedication. Yeah, my doctors have already given it. You know, my doctors have given more information than has been given on any human being in the history of the world.

Q But have not given that detail, Mr. President.

Q Mr. President, can you tell us why — what your campaign strategy seems to be to call Biden a “criminal”? Why is that?

THE PRESIDENT: He is a criminal. He’s a criminal. He got caught —

Q He was the Vice President of the United States.

THE PRESIDENT: Read his laptop. And you know who’s a criminal? You’re a criminal for not reporting it. You are a criminal for not reporting it.

Q I’m asking your strategy.

THE PRESIDENT: Let me tell you something: Joe Biden is a criminal, and he’s been a criminal for a long time. And you’re a criminal, and the media, for not reporting it. Good luck, everybody. Have a good time. Have a good time.

He references no crime, he references no evidence. What little “evidence” has been presented by his allies appears extremely improbable and dubious. So he tries to skip over that part and accuse the media of being criminal as well.

And then, true to his transactional nature, he wishes that same media a good time.

This is a guy who’s discovering that chronic lying is falling apart in the face of determined fact-finding and reporting. For a man who has more or less successfully employed this strategy for most of this 70-odd years, this must be dismaying. But it’s all he knows, so he flails along, discrediting himself more and more.

Erick Erickson, far right pundit and purveyor of email, has allied with some group called The First, who is also now sending me emails. While I was intending to mark them as spam, it actually turns out they’re useful for getting the latest misleading stories from the right, such as this:

What’s Up: Possibly the biggest story of the last two weeks in the 2020 campaign swirls around Joe Biden, his son Hunter, and claims that the former VP’s son was peddling access to his father and charging millions of dollars to entities in foreign countries. Democrats have floated the theory the entire thing is a Russian disinformation campaign. Today, the Director of National Intelligence debunked that theory.

Quote: “‘Let me be clear, the intelligence community doesn’t believe that because there is no intelligence that supports and we shared no intelligence with chairman Schiff or any other member of Congress that Hunter Biden’s laptop is part of some Russian disinformation campaign,’ he continued. ‘It’s simply not true.'” — DailyWire.com

The First take: Monday’s “October Surprise” is one we believe Rep. Adam Schiff and the Democrats will not appreciate. DNI John Ratcliffe’s shooting down of the Dem’s latest attempt to push the Hunter Biden story off the front pages is not just big news, we believe it to be one of he most consequential stories of the 2020 election. We suggest you follow the timeline in the bonus story below.

Notice the adroit separation of the man from his title, and in reverse order:

Director of National Intelligence in the first paragraph.
John Ratcliffe in the third paragraph.

The responsibility of the sober citizen in the Internet Age of Disinformation is to check one’s source. That evaluative phase not only includes facts, but how they weave together.

Let’s begin with what I’ve pulled out. Start with the fact that the selection of words is an integral part of communications – and emotional response control. When it comes to Director of National Intelligence, or DNI for short, that’s really an impressive title, isn’t it? Even if you don’t know that the intelligence community is supposed to be non-partisan, it should be apparent that the intelligence community provides facts and analysis to our leaders, who then take actions based on them.

Yeah?

Well, ideally, yeah.

But, uh (you say), who’s the DNI? Oh, yeah. John Ratcliffe. OK, now that I’ve connected those dots, who’s he?

Former Rep John Ratcliffe (R-TX).

Former rejected nominee for DNI John Ratcliffe.

Partisan John Ratcliffe, with a TrumpScore of 92.5%.

Liar John Ratcliffe.

So much for the trustworthiness of the DNI, and thus do we explode the assertions that are supposedly foolproof.

All of a sudden, The First’s pushing of the story seems less dignified, even frantic. You gotta remember, the GOP, with names such as Trump, Pruitt, McConnell, Ernst, Sasse, and many others of like dismal reputation in the leadership, is burdened with people who have proven themselves mendacious and dishonorable.

“Declining conservative membership“
Gallup

Therefore, it’s necessary to paint the Democrats as being the same. If the Republicans find themselves as the only party with a bad rep, they may continue experiencing membership loss, they might even have a schism and find a second, more credible conservative party, devoted to real conservative principles, such as honesty and competency, taking them out of the limelight.

But if they can paint the Democrats as being just as corrupt, then maybe they can survive as a credible national force.

And doing this in an honest manner isn’t even a factor. The mud need only be applied, and if it requires a corrupt DNI, so be it. I’ll bet it doesn’t even sting their conscience any longer.

So, when evaluating this bit of mud, it’s best to ask:

Do you trust a highly suspect DNI, or the honesty and stated policies of Joe Biden?

We had our first snow of the season today, and another is due tomorrow. So let’s erase those sweat-inducing thoughts from our minds …

The Chief Justice strikes again:

Mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania — a critical state for President Donald Trump’s reelection chances — will be counted if they are received within three days of Election Day even if they do not have a legible postmark, the Supreme Court ruled Monday.

Four justices dissented from the order, signaling that the court was equally divided, with Chief Justice John Roberts siding with the court’s three liberals.

The ruling is a loss for state Republicans who sought to require that only ballots received by Election Day be counted.The highly anticipated order could set the tone for other pre-election challenges and highlights the fact that once again Roberts has moved left to side with his liberal colleagues in an area where he has a very conservative record. It also comes just two weeks before Election Day and intensifies the Supreme Court confirmation battle over Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who could well prove to be a deciding vote on election night challenges. [CNN/Politics]

While the other conservative Justices look like they’re taking orders from the Republican National Committee, Chief Justice Roberts appears to believe in being independent. That the liberal wing appears to be solidly in lock-step is obviated when the Chief Justice joins them.

While the accession of Barrett to the Court, apparently inevitable, will diminish the Chief Justice’s role, it won’t eliminate it. He can still argue for the positions he prefers, writing stinging dissents which signal the legislature concerning future law.

Another article discussing nervous Democrats who insist on remembering 2016 in the wrong way:

The polls are once again delivering feel-good boosts to Democrats: Joe Biden beats President Trump by 10, 11 or 12 points nationally, depending on the day. His edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin averages eight. Propeller-heads promise better than 4 in 5 odds of a new president next year.

But then the partisans remember they have been here before, four years ago this week. The conflicting emotions can be overwhelming.

“I am feeling anxious and trapped between a sense of unbridled optimism and sheer dread,” said Abington Township, Pa., Commissioner Bill Bole, who like many Democrats never thought Trump could beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and was stunned when he did. [WaPo]

It’s easy to be overwhelmed with the emotions of past shocks, but it helps, in situations like this in which a repeat is feared, to concentrate on the substantive differences between last time and this time. Here’s what I’ve found useful:

1. Now voters know Trump. He was an unknown quantity last time. Now, his conduct and lack of honesty are well known.
2. His conduct gives voters ammunition to use on Trump voters. If you know a Trump voter, ask them if they’re religious, and if they are affirmative, then ask them to explain how their religion can possibly excuse them voting for a brazen and chronic liar. If not, I’m sure you can find another approach that uses that shitload of documented lies to crack open some daylight. The trick is to be prepared and anticipate retorts, prevarication, and other maneuvers by people desperate to bypass their own morality in order to vote their fears and/or avariciousness.
3. News organizations are smarter. A lie is now called a lie by reporters. The good ones tell readers their source for identifying the lie, so the reader can verify it. In 2016, too many readers just swallowed the lies whole, since they were not warned and they accorded with the biases, hidden or not, of the audiences.
4. Americans are smarter. Clinton was burdened with multiple lies told by Republicans and Russians. This time around, Democrats, moderate Republicans, and independents, all disgusted by the mendacity of a Republican leadership made up of third-raters, have learned to take in the news warily. The recently Hunter Biden article in the New York Post, a Rupert Murdoch property, has already been revealed to have dubious origins and a ridiculous story-line. QAnon cultists may point at it with enthusiasm, but the rest of us, on due consideration, will just shake our heads and disregard it.
5. Biden isn’t Clinton. It’s not fair to Clinton, but the Republicans had built a bad reputation for her over decades. Biden was not regarded as a threat after two impotent Presidential runs, was left alone, and now he’s on a roll.

I realize this won’t help the chronically nervous, but this is how I view it – optimistically, even if I’m disappointed in so many of my fellow citizens in buying into such terrible mendacity.

Curtilage:

But with the rise of the knock and talk have come more and more cases testing the boundaries of the consent on which they depend. Sometimes, officers appear with overbearing force or otherwise seek to suggest that a homeowner has no choice but to cooperate. Other times, officers fail to head directly to the front door to speak with the homeowner, choosing to wander the property first to search for whatever they can find.

This Court addressed the second sort of problem in Florida v. Jardines, 569 U. S. 1 (2013). There, the Court recognized that a home’s “curtilage,” the area immediately surrounding it, is protected by the Fourth Amendment much like the home itself. [592 U. S. ____ (2020), Associate Justice Gorsuch]

It took the Trump Campaign a month to figure it out, but reality concerning Minnesota – that is, that 17 point lead for Biden – may be setting in:

The Trump campaign slashed another $1.1 million in reserved ad time in the Minneapolis-St. Paul TV market this week (initially $1.25 million, now $129,000).

Initially reserved 812 ads, now airing just 49.

Continues a six-week trend.

— Theo Keith (@TheoKeith) October 16, 2020

And perhaps that means the avalanche of commercials will stop.

Trump recently made a joke about leaving the country if he lost, as I predicted he might. Keep an eye on Air Force One, starting in January.

I had heard that Biden planned to increase taxes on those making in excess of $400,000 a year in order to begin cleaning up – once again – after the Republicans’ financial mismanagement, as well as cover the costs, both necessary and the fruits of mismanagement, of the pandemic, but rather than run over to Biden’s website, I can conveniently point at Kevin Drum, who confirms it using the analysis American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank:

In 2021, everyone under $400,000 pays lower taxes, while the top 1 percent pays about $100,000 more in taxes. By 2030, every income group pays slightly higher taxes (about $50 per year at the median) while the top 1 percent pays $134,000 more.

The effect of all this on economic growth is essentially zero. AEI estimates that Biden’s plan would produce a minuscule reduction in GDP over its first decade and a minuscule increase in GDP during its second decade.

In other words, Biden has told the truth about his tax plan. How refreshing and unusual in the Trump era.

Sounds fine and dandy, doesn’t it?

But I’m actually a little unsettled. No, I don’t have an odd sympathy for the plight of the top 1%. My thought isn’t financial, it’s moral:

Elections should have consequences.

Now, I’ll also argue against myself and suggest that the imminent confirmation of Barrett to SCOTUS is a reproach to this group, the ongoing tragedy of the mismanaged Covid-19 pandemic a lesson for that group, etc etc.

But the truth of the matter is this:

We are all responsible for the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency.

For the outraged Clinton-supporting reader – such as myself – let me explain. We can partition the US population by their actions in the 2016, and how that makes them culpable for the ongoing disaster of the Trump Administration:

1. Voted for Trump: You actively voted for someone who had already revealed themselves as a business failure, an inveterate liar, and a worse than average reality-show actor (or performer, if I am to take my Theater Arts professor’s definition of acting vs performing to heart, for Trump has only one role he can perform). You should have known better. If you embraced some single issue to justify that vote, you should be heartily morally embarrassed.
2. I never vote. You, sir or madam, are a shirker of your civic responsibilities. It’s time to dump the Me-me-me attitude and participate. Remember, the right to participate in the selection of our leaders, even as illiberally implemented as it was initially (i.e., white landowners only), was one of the most important points of the Revolutionary War. And, by not voting, you enabled Donald Trump’s election.
3. I couldn’t stand Hillary, so xyz. I hear this from time to time, as if it’s necessary that your candidate is someone with whom you could sit down and have tea & crumpets. It’s great if you do, but when it comes to national leadership, competency is far, far more important than your need for personal admiration of your chosen candidate – and a little bit of research would have shown Clinton had that in spades, while Trump’s true competency is in lying. Just a wee bit of research. The only out I would give this group is that if they raised questions of corruption in the form of the Wasserman-Schultz scandal.
4. I voted Clinton, why are you penalizing me? Because – and I include myself here – you didn’t do enough to persuade everyone else to vote for Clinton, the highly endorsed and highly competent candidate, over Trump, the already-evident chronic liar, cheat, incompetent, and mediocre actor. We didn’t pay attention to those who are discontented, fearful of a future that doesn’t seem to include them, and felt the Democrats had betrayed them. Granted, some problems are of herculean girth, such as single-issue voters who don’t understand they are the scourge of America, rather than its saviors. But more effort might have saved us from this giant blot on American honor.
5. I couldn’t vote, yet, so why penalize me? Think of it as a salutary lesson about shirking serious research and participation. Or, too bad, life is unfair and not in your favor this time (to borrow from Calvin & Hobbes).

Given that Trump and his enabling Republicans have left the nation with some monumental debts, and while acknowledging the top 1% have a lot of ways to avoid paying taxes, I think it’s necessary that all the tax-paying citizens of the United States should see an increase in their tax bill, and its source should be labeled. Sure, the Republicans would scream, but, by screaming This isn’t fair!, the Democrats can point out exactly how it IS true and fair.

We could call it the Trump Redemption Surtax, just to make it clear that this is a consequence of the 2016 election. And it would help pay off the mountainous Republican-sourced debt we are now carrying a little bit faster.

On the run from the repository of Ancient Evil Artifacts. Please return if found. Answers to the name ‘Tootsie.’

The Curse of Sleeping Beauty (2016) uses a contemporary setting to deliver a visually affecting but, in the end, punchless horror story to the audience. Thomas Kaiser, an unsuccessful artist, is tormented by dreams of someone named Briar Rose, a beautiful woman dressed atavistically, who tells him that, in his world, he must find and kiss her in order to rescue her. Waking from these dreams is an adventure reminiscent of the phenomenon called sleep paralysis, a mental state in which the dreamer thinks they are awake, cannot move, and a horror has entered their bedroom.

Thomas finds himself heir to a property named Kaiser Gardens, as his uncle has reportedly killed himself. Unfamiliar with the uncle and the property, Thomas arranges a visit. Soon he discovers, in a plot mechanism similar to that of Dr. Who’s crying statuary, that mannequins are pursuing him and his realtor, Linda Coleman, a woman who has her own set of issues with Kaiser Gardens. They escape the house with the help of a paranormal expert, Richard Meyers.

A little research suggests that Kaiser Gardens’ hidden rooms may hold Briar Rose, and they return, appropriately armed. While Linda and Richard distract the veiled monster of the house, Thomas’ Big Kiss is planted on Briar Rose’s cheek, and, in shameless literary foreshadowing, the Briar part of the name becomes more important than the Rose. And then the movie peters out, presumably hoping for a sequel or a TV series to leap out of the hidden rooms of Kaiser Gardens and save their collective financial asses.

Yeah, the story was weak. Any careful consideration reveals some big plot holes.

The visuals weren’t bad, but the characters were mostly unsympathetic, and for those who like to look for morals in their stories – like me – they came up mostly empty. “If you uncle committed suicide, then play not with his legacy” lacks that pithy punch you want out of a story.

If you like monstrous mannequins, this may be for you, but otherwise there’s not much going on here. Go watch Grimm instead.

The Lincoln Project and VoteVets present:

It occurred to me last night that the various state Bar Associations may have a role to play in the upcoming elections. We’ve been warned that if Trump finds himself on the short end of the electoral stick he may sue, claiming electoral fraud.

But such litigation must take place at the state level because that’s who is responsible for administering the election. Therefore, local lawyers must be employed to file the papers.

I suggest that the state Bar Associations should send out a reminder to all members that bringing suit without objective evidence of a mislead is a transgression against the professional standards of the profession, and that could lead to their disbarment, and thus their ability to earn a living as a lawyer.

Any lawyers out there want to confirm or deny the accuracy of my suggestion? Or even that it’s already happened?

Some pics taken from the car by my Arts Editor:

Georgia GOP leaders are very concerned about the race for the seat currently occupied by appointed incumbent Senator Loeffler (R-GA) and Rep Doug Collins (R-GA):

And this week, Sen. Kelly Loeffler took her move to the right to a new level: Touting the endorsement of a controversial House candidate from Georgia who has promoted the QAnon conspiracy and had been denounced by other Republicans before winning the GOP nomination in her race for making bigoted and racist comments.

“No one in Georgia cares about the QAnon business,” Loeffler told reporters defiantly, after pulling up to the event in a Humvee and sporting a baseball cap, with congressional candidate Marjorie Taylor Greene by her side. “This is something the fake news is gonna continue to bring up — and ignore Antifa.”

Loeffler, an appointed senator and one of the richest in Congress, has been in a race to the right with GOP Rep. Doug Collins, an intraparty battle that has prompted deep Republican concerns that it could splinter the vote and help Democrats sweep Georgia and take the Senate majority.

It’s a scenario that GOP leaders have been privately fearing for months — and one they had sought to avoid at the beginning of the year. In private, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had counseled his top lieutenants and even President Donald Trump to ensure the party would unite behind one candidate and avoid a messy internecine battle that could imperil the crucial Senate seat, multiple GOP sources told CNN. [CNN/Politics]

And, while I expect the internecine battle to get even worse as a consequence of the call-them-liberals-and-eat-them culture currently dominant in the GOP, as I’ve previously discussed, I see no mention of the other possible effect of the two candidates’ frantic run to the right:

How many Georgia Republicans will finally have had enough and walked away?

That alienation may be the real pivot upon which Pastor Warnock’s campaign will turn, the math that may have been missed. From QAnon to their intimate clasp to Trump’s campaign genitals, some will love it, but others may be disgusted.

All Warnock has to offer is his stock in trade: moral leadership.

I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that, absent any unexpected developments, Warnock may win outright in November, much to the shock of the two GOP candidates.

Kudos to Kiwis:

A coronavirus sceptic who confronted New Zealand’s deputy leader on the campaign trail was met with a blunt response when the lawmaker called him a flat-Earther.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters was taking questions from a crowd at an election event in Tauranga this week when he was asked to prove that Covid-19 existed.

“We’ve got someone who obviously got an education in America,” Peters said, referring to the man’s apparent North American accent.

Peters continued by citing the mounting U.S. death toll from the virus — over 215,000 — and the rising case numbers around the world.

“And here is someone who gets up and says:’the Earth is flat’,” he added.

“Sorry sunshine, wrong place.” [Courthouse News Service]

Outside of the occasional earthquake, New Zealand continues to sound closer and closer to heaven on Earth.

Law Professor Michael Dorf of Cornell analyzes Justice Thomas’ recent rant concerning Obergefell v. Hodges:

… prohibitions on conduct often affect belief. We like to think of ourselves as rational, as deciding what to do based on what we think, but the process frequently works in reverse. Considerable psychological research shows that we form our beliefs based on our actions. That phenomenon partly explains the role of ritual in inculcating religious beliefs.

It also partly explains why racist religious beliefs are much less common today than they were before the passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. In earlier times, religion was frequently invoked to defend slavery and later Jim Crow. The belief that the Bible authorizes slavery or mandates racial segregation was never outlawed and could not be outlawed consistent with the First Amendment. Still, that belief has almost entirely died out because actions based on it have been forbidden.

Accordingly, Justice Thomas is not wrong to think that legal protection for same-sex marriage could affect religious beliefs about same-sex marriage. Were he not so intent on waging the culture war, his statement in the Davis case might have been the occasion for a useful discussion on the subtle relationship between conduct regulation and religious (or other) beliefs. Unfortunately, however, on the Supreme Court as in other areas of our public life, subtlety is in short supply. [Justia]

I’m not even sure it’s irrational to think that lack of expression of a belief leads to the withering of that belief. We’re not creatures of contemplation, we’re creatures of action; indeed, I’m not sure a species composed primarily of the former could exist. What motivates action? Belief. Whether it’s belief that there’s a tiger in the shrubbery and it’s time to pull out the spear, or that God hates having Jerusalem occupied by non-Christians, and so it’s time for another Crusade, it’s belief, whether absolute or statistical, which is motivational.

Concomitant to this is the idea that belief is allied with good outcomes. When a belief’s required actions are suppressed, it is reasonable to believe that undesirable outcomes will occur; when they do not, then that belief properly suffers attenuation and extinction. Consider racial segregation: its gradual outlawing in public life did not lead to predicted long-term chaos. There have been no race wars, despite frantic, murderous efforts by madmen, and efforts to stir the pot by those who think their position in society is endangered. Public disruptions, in fact, can be traced to ongoing segregation, the racism behind segregation, and the injustices which flow from such despicable beliefs. And racism and segregation as valid ideas have completely lost their validity in intellectual society; those who continue to advocate for them are held in disrepute. The belief has been shown to be false, and we’re in that chronological space in which it’s dying out.

Place this in the company of the far-right fringe’s commitment to societal stasis, its fear of change, embodied in the oft-heard (in far-right land) worries about the erasure of the “American way of life,” and Justice Thomas’ rant is not irrational. Lacking expression, religious beliefs wane (and thus the protests at the temporary banning of in-house religious services during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite their identification as a common site for spreading the pathogen) in the absence of divine retribution. I don’t mean to say that Justice Thomas, or anyone else, is aware of this, as then it’d be plausible to argue they are religious frauds, and while some are, I don’t care to trod that road right now. But changing an underlying belief will lead to changes in actions, and that’s frightening for the rigid, the timid, and for those whose position in society depends on those underlying actions.

I’ve been watching but not talking about the most important races this cycle, those in the Senate, mostly for lack of time. I consider them the most important because the Senate confirms nominees to government positions, and if Biden wins the Presidential election, but Senator Mitch “No” McConnell (R-KY) is still the Majority Leader after the election, then Americans are in for a miserable four years.

That said, I’m not presenting a detailed analysis of the polls. moddesttraveler on The Daily Kos has a roundup of recent polls, and The Daily Kos‘ Morning Digest of political news also presents a fluid view of the races. I think, absent an unforeseeable disaster, we can expect the Senate to swing to the Democrats, and I would be disappointed if it’s not a 55 (including the two Independents) – 45 advantage.

Who still seems safe among Republican candidates? Incumbent Tom Cotton (R-AR), with no opponent, remains a shoe-in, so long as his shoe doesn’t have a hole in it. Idaho doesn’t seem to have any polls, so it’s impossible to be definitive, but it appears incumbent Jim Risch will breeze in – unless challenger Paulette Jordan has a hidden constituency.

It’s hard to see how Mitch McConnell himself will fall, although with 18 days left, there’s still time for him to stumble.

Polling for the Louisiana seat of Republican Bill Cassidy doesn’t seem to exist, but it’s one of those jungle elections, where a runoff with the top two will occur if no one reaches 50%. This style favors the incumbent, Cassidy, so I feel he has little to worry about. Senator Sasse (R-NE), who has been strategically criticizing President Trump, should have no troubles keeping his seat, nor should James Inhofe of solidly conservative Oklahoma, nor Senator Rounds (who?) of South Dakota.

And then there’s the surprises, which could go south for incumbents with the few days left and Trump’s amateurism coming to the fore. Senator Hyde-Smith (R-MS) is reportedly in an unexpectedly tough battle with Mike Espy (R-MS). Could Cassidy be in trouble as well? How about the Tennessee race for Lamar Alexander’s seat, who’s retiring? Will incumbent Cornyn fall to Heggar in purple Texas, after leading all this time?

This will be an agonizing three weeks for those Republican incumbents who are tied to Trump’s delusions.