About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

Shearing The Bumbling Investor?

Josh Barro shares my viewpoint, but far more articulately, on cryptocurrencies:

While I hate the aesthetics of crypto, my complaint here is not principally aesthetic. As someone who is in general more favorable to the social value of finance than a lot of commentators these days — especially on the left but sometimes on the right too — I want finance to be useful, serious, and furthering the production of useful products and services in the real economy.

I want banks lending for the construction of new buildings; equity markets making it possible for the most promising companies to raise funds to build useful products; bond markets making cheap and efficient financing available for public and private activities that will support payment of interest on the bonds. I was a big champion of the Fed’s actions to rescue the financial system in spring 2020 because I know a robust and liquid financial system isn’t just something people on Wall Street like — it’s something that makes it possible to get a mortgage, use a credit card, remain employed at a company, and generally enjoy all the things made possible by a modern economy.

And I am concerned that tens of millions of Americans investing in a stupid market with no such thing as fundamental value — and where prices should not keep going up and up and up, though I’ve grown weary of saying that and watching them do so anyway — is likely to lead to significant financial dislocation and reduced trust in the financial system when a lot of them lose their shirts.

Which sort of reminds me of the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000. Or 2001. Whenever. A lot of people lost money when that pus-filled balloon finely finally blew up, including me.

Barro knows more about finance than I do. Go read him.

More Sculpturing

Continuing the show:

The Jetsons and their pickup truck.

Tasty tidbit time.

A bit of manic music.


I like the detail, but the nod to Disney’s Aladdin somehow irritates me.

Surreal, to be sure. Or your brain on ice cream.

Perhaps They’re Dismayed

Aldous J Pennyfarthing on The Daily Kos has some remarks on Trump’s Troops that are interesting, although I’m not entirely certain who he’s quoting:

Many of the GOP candidates Trump is backing in open-seat races are struggling to raise significant funds as well against better-funded opponents—and every single one of the GOP candidates Trump has endorsed against a GOP incumbent is getting crushed in fundraising, according to newly released campaign finance reports.

Oh, things aren’t going quite so swimmingly for Bone Spurious the Betrayer? Let’s see. Should I take pity on the big, dopey animal or … go in a different direction?

How should I put this? …

Even strong-performing Trump allies are getting lapped in fundraising. Trump-backed Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker raised almost $5.4 million in the past three months and has about the same amount in the bank. That’s a huge haul, but Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock far outpaced him, bringing in $9.8 million in the same time period. Warnock has $22.9 million in the bank for what’s sure to be one of this cycle’s most expensive Senate races.

Every single one of the House candidates Trump has endorsed against a GOP incumbent is getting shellacked in fundraising as well.

Oh, but that’s not all.

Rep. Mo Brooks, who’s running for U.S. Senate with Trump’s endorsement, raised less than $400,000 from October through December, and two of his primary opponents, Katie Boyd Britt and Mike Durant, each have $4 million war chests—double Brooks’ $2 million in reserves.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who voted to impeach Trump last year—thereby rousing his black, bloodless knot of a heart to something resembling movement—has $4.3 million in the bank, or seven times her opponent Kelly Tshibaka’s meager $634,000 haul.

And there’s more, but that’s enough. The interesting question is: Why?

Is MAGA cult members becoming tapped out?

Are they losing interest in politics?

Or are the endorsees simply so repulsive that they can’t attract strong donations?

I’m going for the last, but that’s a case of confirmation bias; I think we’ll have to wait to see what the real answer might be. Regardless, while votes are not usually buyable, they do bring attention to candidates. A failure to attract money is like a corpse not attracting flies: What’s going on here, and do we need to worry about it?

Sheer, But Entertaining, Gibberish

Or “So Wrong She’s Not Even Wrong.” Maybe she’s just desperate to squeeze a bit more cash out of the audience:

Sherri Tenpenny is an influential religious-right anti-vaccine activist who has testified before the Ohio state House, appeared on Charlie Kirk’s podcast, and been a speaker at multiple ReAwaken America events, where she has shared the stage with the likes of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Eric Trump, Mike Lindell, Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, and Alex Jones.

Despite the fact that Tenpenny is osteopathic doctor with no expertise on vaccines, she regularly appears on right-wing programs where she spreads wild conspiracy theories about COVID-19 vaccines.

Recently, she has begun to claim that COVID-19 vaccines are designed to create “quantum entanglement” between those who take them and the internet in an effort to turn humanity into “transhumanist cyborgs.”

“The stated goal is to depopulate the planet and the ones that are left, either make them chronically sick or turn them into transhumanist cyborgs that can be manipulated externally by 5G, by magnets, by all sorts of things,” Tenpenny said during an appearance on “The Stew Peters Show” Thursday night. “I got dragged through the mud by the mainstream media when I said that in May of last year in front of the House committee in Columbus, [Ohio]. Well, guess what? It’s all true.”

“The whole issue of quantum entanglement and what the shots do in terms of the frequencies and the electronic frequencies that come inside of your body and hook you up to the ‘Internet of Things,’ the quantum entanglement that happens immediately after you’re injected,” she continued. “You get hooked up to what they’re trying to develop. It’s called the hive mind, and they want all of us there as a node and as an electronic avatar that is an exact replica of us except it’s an electronic replica, it’s not our God given body that we were born with. And all of that will be running through the metaverse that they’re talking about. All of these things are real, Stew. All of them. And it’s happening right now. It’s not some science fiction thing happening out in the future; it’s happening right now in real time.” [Right Wing Watch]

Ummmm, no. But not “just no.” The need to giggle and even applaud this ridiculous person is a bit overwhelming.

I mean, yes, taking advantage of an audience who doesn’t know what it means to be in a quantum entanglement is desperately unethical and immoral. This is a woman whose moral model is so terribly at odds with that of the vast majority of Americans, political leanings irrelevant, that she should probably be placed under restraints for both her own safety and the safety of others. That’s how bad it is.

But, in terms of communications style, she’s a little like Erick Erickson and his ilk, who I’ve observed using phrases like objective evidence and scientific arguments as if they’re magical incantations. Tenpenny has evidently gathered up some of the terms from one of the least intuitive and most difficult to understand scientific fields out there, thrown them at the side of a building covered in old bubble-gum, and taken what’s stuck in random order in order to bamboozle an audience that may not even have heard of the field, despite the fact that the very computers they use are built on pivotal parts of quantum mechanics.

But, invoking the classic We’re all victims! approach to communications, she declares she was ridiculed, and yet She Was Right! As much as I’d love to be able to writer Ah, if she were only right, but the consequences for reality might be devastating, as in Why did the Moon just become a black hole that’s about to suck us-

While I expect that, someday, her audience will wise up to her grifter tactics and chase her out of town, it won’t be on this one. Much like fake pastors who proclaim themselves prophets because there’s no likelihood of someone listening in on their convos with the divine, she’s wisely kept her path way out where no one else but quantum physicists will tread, and I don’t doubt the audience has already been vaccinated against trusting most scientists. She’ll trip over something else someday in her greed and immorality, but not this grift.

You Really Think So?

More than a year ago, Eitan Hersh published this in The Atlantic:

In the aggregate, the political right is making donations more strategically than the political left. As political scientists have long described, conservative funders such as Charles Koch have spent decades planning for the long term. They have invested in the next generation of state and municipal politicians and organizers across the country. They invest in state legislative lobbying. Understanding the political value of local church groups and gun clubs, they don’t see grassroots organizing as parochial and beneath them. They see it as key to durable control of government. Meanwhile, the biggest and most notable spenders on the Democratic side include Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, who sometimes invest in worthwhile long-term grassroots strategies, but who will be best remembered for together spending nearly $1.5 billion on their own long-shot presidential bids: short-term, top-down, and vain.

And for all their planning and money, what did they get? Long-time readers know the names: Gaetz, Greene, Boebert, Cawthorn, Gohmert, Nunes, Risch, McConnell, Kennedy, and dozens of others. At the Federal and State levels, the far-right conservative donors have discovered that the brethren they funded are a bunch of fourth-raters who think winning a seat was the goal.

And then ring the bell and let their inner-nuts loose.

And so Hersh, or at least his political scientists, should be embarrassed. Winning is merely a stepping stone; the goal is effective and wise governance. The right advocated for absolutist gun rights and now hide out on luxury yachts when the fear of being picked off takes them, they participate in ludicrous lies and hypocrisy about SCOTUS, they believe their broken abortion logic should be inflicted on everyone, and then there’s the 30,000 lies of the former President!

This is not wise investing, is it?

Not that he’s wrong about “rage-donating,” a description of Democratic fund donation “strategy”, which was fun to read. It reminds me that a lot of Americans have thoroughly ingested the philosophy of the private sector, where virtually everything can be bought and sold. Sadly for the Democrats who gave money to long-shot candidates in incredible volume, It Just Doesn’t Work That Way when it comes to voting.

But to suggest that the fact that the conservatives often control the legislatures due to wise investments is to ignore the part that gerrymandering and many other morally dubious strategies have played in the drama of American politics, and, worse yet, to fail to understand the nature of victory. Putting the current pack of half-wits in charge of the legislatures of the nation isn’t victory for the Republicans.

It’s disaster, for the nation and the Republicans.

Sculpturing

Some pics of the recent St. Paul Winter Carnival’s snow sculpture competition. These were taken near dusk, which explains why some are a little gray.

I’m not sure what that might be.

Sorry, dude, but that’s a bit big even for you to lift off the ground.

Lovely.

Didn’t make it to the toilet, did he?

Singin’ the blues.

Sadly, I think this is the last day of display for the sculptures.

And Why Not? It Could Be Fun!

WaPo reports on the latest remarks from former President Trump:

Former president Donald Trump on Tuesday advocated a new focus for congressional investigators: why then-Vice President Mike Pence did not take steps on Jan. 6, 2021, to reject electoral college votes from several states won by Joe Biden.

Trump’s exhortation came two days after he created an uproar with a statement suggesting Pence should have “overturned” the election as he presided over the counting of electoral college votes by Congress.

In a fresh statement Tuesday, Trump offered a more nuanced take on what he would have liked to have seen from Pence, saying he “could have sent the votes back to various legislators for reassessment after so much fraud and irregularities were found.”

And you know what? I think Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) should offer the Republicans the opportunity to form their own Select Panel to investigate the former Vice President.

Make them vote on it.

Watch them squirm.

Because if they vote for it, they stay in the former President’s good graces while shit-canning the former Vice President. He’ll have been implicitly rejected by both Trump and the Republican establishment. His supporters will be mortally offended and never vote Republican again, or at least not for the MAGA-oafs.

And if they vote against establishing such a panel, every NO! vote will be considered a betrayal of  the former President, and both he and the MAGA cult will never forgive them.

And on top of that, every legal expert in the country will tell us that there’s nothing to find. Pence’s role was purely ceremonial. All of the faux-controversy over the votes was finished. The conclusion of such a panel will be that Pence never had the opportunity to indulge in such a betrayal of the nation.

Go on, Speaker Pelosi, Leader Schumer. You know you want to.

And That Raises A Question

WaPo has a report on that mysterious phenomenon known as extreme lightning:

The World Meteorological Organization announced on Monday that it had confirmed two new mind-blowing lightning “megaflash” records. The findings, which come after careful data-checking and rigorous certification processes, include one record event that occurred over the Lower 48 states.

On April 29, 2020, a sprawling mass of strong to severe thunderstorms produced a 477.2-mile-long lightning strike over the southern United States. It stretched from near Houston to southeast Mississippi, a distance equivalent to that between Columbus, Ohio, and New York City.

The record beats out a 440-mile-long megaflash that occurred over southern Brazil on Halloween of 2018.

The WMO also identified a new world record for the long-lasting lightning flash. It lit up the skies over Uruguay and northern Argentina for 17.1 seconds on June 18, 2020, surpassing a 16.73-second flash recorded over northern Argentina on March 4, 2019.

And that question would be: are these phenomena sensitive to climate change?

Clinging With Her Fingernails

In the midst of an ennui affliction, this, from nearly a year ago, made me laugh:

A Missouri lawmaker facing federal fraud charges is learning what legislative exile is like.

Days after Rep. Tricia Derges was kicked out of the Republican caucus for allegedly falsely promoting a medical treatment that could treat COVID-19, House leaders assigned her new office space — in a windowless broom closet.

“Yes, I’m in a closet,” Derges told the Post-Dispatch Thursday.

The cubbyhole, listed as Room 400D, is located in a space near the House gallery, a sometimes crowded and loud corridor in pre-COVID times.

They also moved Derges’ seat on the House floor to be next to a fellow exiled Republican, Rep. Rick Roeber of Lee’s Summit, who was booted from the GOP caucus amid allegations that he abused his children. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]

And is her situation improving? Not recently.

A federal judge has turned down a request to dismiss Medicaid fraud charges filed last year against a Republican state lawmaker from southwest Missouri.

In a decision issued Monday, U.S. District Court Judge Brian Wimes agreed with a December ruling by a federal magistrate that Rep. Patricia Derges’ request for a dismissal was “illogical and frivolous,” as well as “disjointed.”

Derges’ attorney, Albert Watkins of Clayton, had sought a dismissal alleging a witness in the case, U.S. Attorney Shannon Kempf, had directed a Medicaid fraud unit.

In recommending the court reject Watkins’ claim, U.S. Magistrate David Rush said Watkins’ motion was “unclear and unsupported, given the inclusion of irrelevant facts and hyperbole, as well as the lack of clarity and sufficient legal analysis.”

“Given the meandering factual allegations and arguments in her brief, it seems that defendant is attempting to weave an elaborate (and largely, unsubstantiated) narrative, implying that Mr. Kempf (and relatedly, the government) targeted defendant for some nefarious purpose, likely politically motivated, given the timing of her candidacy announcement, swearing-in ceremony as state representative, and the filing of the charges against her,” Rush wrote. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]

The incompetent representing the fraudulent, apparently. I wonder how her spacious legislative quarters worked out. Did she have to cling to that, too?

Quote Of The Day

Certain to cause some outrage:

Critical theory should be treated more like creationism in public schools than scholarship: an unfalsifiable form of religion, preferably banned outright, but if not, always accompanied by Darwin. – Andrew Sullivan, The Weekly Dish (paywall)

Of course, then you’d have to prove that it’s unfalsifiable, and then teach why that’s bad. I’m not sure the first point is yet established, but so far this is an interesting start.

Belated Movie Reviews

We mustn’t be seen together, whoever you are!

Agatha Christie’s 11 day disappearance in 1926 may never be publicly resolved as to its true nature, but it does offer one thing: a gap in the famed murder mystery writer’s life into which speculation may descend, and that is the basis of Agatha And The Truth Of Murder (2018). The author, distraught over her husband’s repeated requests for a divorce, takes on a murder mystery brought to her by a fan: the brutal murder of Florence Nightingale Shore, the goddaughter of Florence Nightingale, to whom the fan, Mabel Rogers, was a companion.

A real life murder, this story is less about the resolution of the murder itself, and more about how the process of solving the murder brings more maturity to Christie. From a better perspective on life and how other people’s lives are lived, and the importance of misleading appearances, to the salience of apparently trivial loose ends, what may have been an emotional breakdown becomes a pivot for Christie to take the next step on her extraordinary life’s journey.

There’s nothing weighty or amazing in this story, but there’s no denying that it is fun, with competent acting and story-telling. You’ll enjoy it if you give it a chance – and like murder mysteries.

They’re Today’s Aztecs

Kurt Andersen has an interesting article in The Atlantic on ritual sacrifice, and how the right’s resistance to vaccination equates to various societies’ use of ritual sacrifice (of people) to solidify ruling structures. While noting the prominent role that belief in the supernatural, formal or informal, plays in ritual sacrifice, more importantly he notes the real goal:

A long-standing theory of human sacrifice, the “social-control hypothesis,” has argued that social elites used it to keep the hoi polloi subservient. But the evidence was scattered and anecdotal, untested by the most rigorous modern scholarship. One big question: What distinguished the cultures that practiced human sacrifice from those that did not? Thanks to a massive historical database of the social and genetic particulars of a hundred traditional societies spread over a sixth of the planet, from the eastern Pacific to Australia and East Asia, in 2016 we got one definitive answer: “Ritual human sacrifice,” an official summary of the research said, “played a central role in helping those at the top of the social hierarchy maintain power over those at the bottom.”

The entire article is worth your time, but I’m not sure if it’s entirely relevant. For example, I don’t know how to work in the role of It’s all a hoax!, especially from those who are on their deathbeds, and still cry our Hoax! It feels like a loose end.

But I enjoyed the article, as I know little about ritual sacrifice.

Not Surprising

Erick Erickson sent out an email blast this morning entitled Will Republicans Blow It? It’s meant to entice recipients to subscribe, as it’s a teaser and a link to his radio show segment on the question, but what little he did write dovetails with my expectations:

I have a well-founded fear that I probably share with a lot of you. If history is the best indicator of future events, this fear may soon materialize. The fear is Republicans blowing it in November.

Sure, Democrats are in a bad spot. Inflation is surging and Biden can’t get anything accomplished. But in order for Republicans to have a chance at taking back both chambers, they need to nominate quality candidates who can win. We’re not seeing quality candidates in an alarming amount of races.

Nevermind the mischaracterization that Biden can’t accomplish anything, as that’s a running line in Republican propaganda with no connection to reality. The real point here is the lack of quality Republican candidates. As I’m a working dude, I can’t go out and evaluate candidates, so I’ll take Erickson’s more experienced view as good information, contingent on other views.

And, as long-time readers will know, this isn’t a surprising development. The Republicans who are, or were, quality people, who took governance seriously, have either left the Party, or have gone into hiding. Many are now independents or are even forming groups dedicated to defeating the Republicans.

Meanwhile, the outliers, the folks who cling to far-right positions such as sovereign citizens, the Democrats are communists, free market absolutism, all regulation is evil, corporate profits are more important than the environment, it’s the End Times, I’m a Prophet and God told me to run, etc.[1], are streaming into the Republican Party. Not just because they’re hungry for power, although that’s certainly true.

But because they can.

Nobody is kicking them out of the Party. The folks who enforced standards, such as the importance of rationality over bigotry, are gone.

Thirty years ago, candidates for the Senate might have included people with degrees in government, perhaps diplomats with extensive foreign or military experience. These days? Football star Herschel Walker, who is literally mentally ill, is considered the leading Republican candidate for the Senate seat that will be decided this November, now held by Senator Warnock (D-GA). Or consider Senator Tuberville (R-AL), a former college football coach with no experience in government.

This is the best they can do? Yes, the Republican Party is truly going down the tubes in the clutches of amateurs who spit upon experts and don’t understand the job doesn’t end when the general election is won.

And the sad part is the Democrats, through their hubris on various issues, may end up losing in November. If Biden doesn’t announce a nominee for Justice Breyer’s soon to be vacated seat before the term is over and Breyer rides off into the sunset, we may see another SCOTUS seat occupied by yet another third-rate Republican legal personality. I think I’ll barf if I have to see Senator McConnell (R-KY) preen once again over his dishonor.


1 I do not include the anti-vaxxers as there is significant resistance to vaccination all over the political spectrum.

Managing The Next Nomination

Much to the relief of many Democrats, 83 year old Justice Stephen Breyer has announced his retirement at the end of the current term. While some folks are trying to put an excessive spin on this, such as Erick Erickson’s interpreting this to mean the Democrats are in big trouble – and not that he’s an old man who’s decided it’s time to move on – I am wondering how the Republicans plan to react to this.

I mean, the Democratic reactions to Kavanaugh and Barrett were fairly hot, even chaotic. Will the Republicans do the same?

In a word, they shouldn’t. I’m not saying they won’t, as a lot of conservative wannabe leaders will see this as a chance to stir up trouble and look like, if only in their minds, leaders. But if the Republican leadership is smart – yeah, I shook my head, too – they’ll keep everyone calm.

Why? Because it’ll impress the independents that the Republicans are the grownups in the room. It won’t be true, of course, as Senators McConnell (R-KY) and Grassley (R-IA) have been dribbling lies about when nominees can be confirmed for years now. But most independent voters won’t be aware of that, while the near-riots and protests and the drama during the confirmation hearings of Kavanaugh and Barrett were loud and, frankly, embarrassing.

The Democrats and the left like to think they’re the adults in the room, and, given the quality of the conservatives these days, they have a point. But their public behaviors have not proven the point; in many independents’ eyes, they’ve been reprehensible. This is where the left falls down: they think everybody’s political.

They’re not. Back in my youth, most everyone wanted to work and then go to bowling league. These days, I’m not sure about the bowling, but having a political discussion hasn’t replaced bowling. A lot of people don’t pay attention to politics, so it’s only the loudest things they remember when they’re forced to think about it – and the Democrats have been both loud and frantic.

If the Republicans are smart, they’ll play that up, because they can’t stop a nominee from being confirmed through brute force. They might stop it by raising valid points about the nominee, if the Democrats are still taking their role in government seriously, but otherwise this is only an opportunity to patch up a Party reputation that has taken some serious damage over the last twenty-five and more years, as they’ve showcased a whole lot of substandard politicians, such as Gingrich, Trump, McConnell, Grassley, Gaetz, Palin, oh this list gets too long so I’ll stop right here.

It’ll be interesting to see how this goes.

It Doesn’t Really Work That Way

Tara Palmeri reports the former President thinks he needs more than one ticket in the endorsement game:

THE DOUBLE DIPPER — DONALD TRUMP has floated the idea of doling out dual endorsements in some of the key midterm races as he becomes increasingly suspicious of his advisers who are pushing competing candidates.

The GOP kingmaker-in-chief has grown so distrustful of all the advice he’s getting from various aides — and so wary of being lured into picking the wrong horse — that he’s floated an idea that would essentially dilute his endorsement.

“He feels like he’s being penned in,” said a person close to the former president, explaining that Trump’s logic is that dual endorsements would mean, “I get two chances to win.”

Another source of Trump’s endorsement apprehension: He isn’t clear about which advisers have significant personal or financial ties to the candidates they’re bending his ear about.

“He’s at times suspicious of the recommendations that people give him when he knows they’re being paid,” an adviser to the former president added. “He’s been asking who is paying who.” [Politico]

“I get two chances to win”? While I’m no statistician – one class in college, thanks for the ‘C’, professor – I do recall that only works with independent outcomes. A primary is not filled with independent outcomes. Because there are a limited number of votes available, the performance of each outcome, i.e., candidate, is inversely related to the performance of the others in aggregate in “first past the post” elections[1].

Which means, as many have already pointed out, that there is a chance, a good chance, that the MAGA vote will split if Trump chooses to endorse multiple candidates. If this happens, then the winner may be damaged goods, not because of their far-right credentials, but because the factionalism in Republican politics has, so far, been quite bitter. MAGA voters decide that if their personal favorite candidate didn’t win the primary, well, they’re not going out to vote.

They may even think the vote was rigged.

Not that this is going to happen. The fallaciousness of Trump’s claim to have two tickets to the lottery, rather than one, is obvious, and I’m sure someone will inform him quickly as to how this all works.

But it’s a consequence of the rank amateurism inherent in Trump and MAGA. He doesn’t get it. That very amateurism may end up blunting the entire movement, disappointing them and driving the base away. It all becomes self-reinforcing. Ironically, he does understand that he’s at the center of corruption, because he wonders who is getting paid off. This is evidence of the way he views the world – it’s all about the money.

Think of it this way, Donald. Your influence is sharply limited. Diluting it just makes it that much less effective.


1 The equivalent statement in ranked choice voting scenarios is considerably more involved, and I won’t take a stab at it.

It’s All Motivated Reasoning

I’ve mentioned Trofin Lysenko a time or two on this blog, most recently here, but now Skeptical Inquirer’s David Robert Grimes has published a lovely article on this walking disaster of a scientist that I really enjoyed:

Lysenko’s 1928 announcement of a new way to hugely increase crop yield, dubbed “vernalization,” was music to the Party’s ears. Inspiring stories of ingenious workers solving practical problems by wits alone were a trope of Soviet propaganda, so this agronomist from peasant origins without any formal scientific training outsmarting a bourgeois scientific establishment was widely embraced. Bestowed with political and scientific awards, he was elevated up the Party hierarchy. Such praise was premature; Lysenko’s lack of scientific training translated into poorly controlled, subpar experiments. Nor was he above bolstering his heroic image with fabricated data.

Still, Lysenko was an unimpeachable Party darling, and the audacity of his claims increased steadily. He insisted that the offspring of seeds treated with his process would inherit wondrous properties, allowing wheat to transmute into barley. This caused consternation to biologists, as it pivoted on Lamarckian evolution. This obsolete theory suggested acquired characteristics of an organism could be passed down to descendants, so a plant plucked of leaves might have leafless offspring. Biologist Julian Huxley pithily observed that “if this theory is correct, it would follow that all Jewish boys would be born without foreskins.”

Bold mine.

And where did it all lead? Not well for his critics:

As World War II consumed Europe, Lysenko began purging scientists who contradicted his grandiose claims. Arrested on overblown charges, his mentor and early champion Vavilov ultimately died in prison from malnutrition. In 1941, Germany attacked Russia, putting Lysenko’s crusade temporarily on ice. At the war’s end in 1945, Lysenko still held dictatorial sway with the Party—but closer evaluations of his work by others began to reveal unjustified and blatantly falsified claims. Apprehensive of his position, Lysenko implored Stalin for support, promising to increase the country’s wheat yield tenfold. Despite ample evidence this was impossible and Lysenko incompetent, Stalin bowed to this much-vaunted genius of the proletariat, bestowing the entire political machinery of the Soviet Union on Lysenko.

But after Sakharov unloaded on him, as I mentioned previously, the Soviet Union dismissed him to dishonor and obscurity, and began clawing its way out of the feverish swamplands of quackery and ideological allegiances into which his ideology had led them:

The state press, which had once heralded his genius, now damned him absolutely. Lysenko retreated into obscurity, dying quietly in 1974. His cult of personality had stifled advances in genetics, biology, and medicine across the Soviet Union. His peaceful end was a stark contrast to that of the scientists whose destruction he had authored in his violent purges. The Lysenko affair was, in the words of scientist Geoffrey Beale, “The most extraordinary, tragic and in some ways absurd, scientific battle that there has ever been.”

And I fear this is what we’re seeing again, only a lot closer to my porch, as the folks who are characterized as anti-vax, or anti-science, might be better considered as alt-world people. They’ve had a taste of cultural power and, if only imagined, social superiority, and damned if they’re going to let a pandemic knock them out of their seats of power. It’s a hoax, medicines pushed by their leaders are effective, the vaccines don’t work or are morally flawed or will kill them. We’ve seen people die of Covid, whispering with their last breath that it is all a hoax, that if only the doctors gave them the real medicine, they’d get better instantly.

It’s all of a piece with the rejection of experts, as advocated by former Speaker Ryan (R-WI), isn’t it? He told the conservative base they could figure out anything, they didn’t need experts, and when an overwhelming problem descended upon them, they sought a magic cure, because that’s what they wanted and Ryan told them they could find it. And then out come the vultures who prey on such people, the latest appearing to be, in an imperfect analogy to Lysenko, the highly credentialed Dr. Robert Malone:

Timothy Caulfield, the Canada research chair in health law and policy at the University of Alberta, said Malone injecting himself into a conversation with the kind of credentials he has, and “cherry-picking rotten data,” was “a worst-case scenario.”

“You have this individual who has all these credentials and this history in the biomedical world, so that looks impressive. And he’s referencing a study that, on the face of it, may look impressive. But you don’t know that the study is fraudulent,” Caulfield said, adding that Malone has “weaponized bad research.”

In November, Malone shared a deceptive video to his Twitter followers that falsely linked athlete deaths to coronavirus shots. The video suggested that coronavirus vaccination killed Jake West, a 17-year-old Indiana high school football player who died of sudden cardiac arrest. But the vaccine played no role in West’s death. The teen died of an undiagnosed heart condition in 2013. [WaPo]

But when Malone says

“Regarding the genetic covid vaccines, the science is settled,” he said in a 15-minute speech that referenced the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and John F. Kennedy. “They are not working.”

It’s red meat for a base hungry for victory over those annoying liberals, and finding Covid doesn’t obey their wishes, their prayers, their earnest demands, not of themselves, not from the movement leaders, such as Trump or Copeland, they’re looking for confirmation of their alt-world fantasy.

The Soviet Union died, in part, from motivated reasoning: where the tires met the road, their technology and social management miserably came up as third-rate. Will the far-right conservatives, such as Trump and Speaker Ryan, who put their narcissism and ideological priorities, respectively, over the opinions of the best trained people available, suffer a similar fate?

And how much damage will their fatally flawed machine do before it’s finally abandoned?

The Next Bubble, Ctd

From CoinMarketCap:

What appears to be a 50% loss in value in Bitcoin. And it’s not recovering as the stock market corrects, surprising some financial professionals:

The stock market sell-off has been pronounced and attracted the most attention in recent days. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 3.9 percent for the week, while the broad-based S&P 500 shed 5.1 percent since Tuesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 6.2 percent this week. But instead of investors pulling money out of the stock market and piling it into bitcoin, the pullback from crypto has been even faster.

“You’d think with the inflation we’re seeing, you’d see the opposite,” said Bob Fitzsimmons, the executive vice president for fixed income, commodities and stock lending at Wedbush Securities. “That’s been one of the selling points for bitcoin, so its correlation to stock prices has surprised me.” [WaPo]

The problem is that cryptocurrencies lack any unique or superior utility, so far as I can see – and, I think, the speculative investors in it would agree. No national entity, outside of El Salvador, is officially backing it, and certainly not any entity with any weight behind it. Because there’s nothing to anchor value in that set of currencies, it flows in and out like the tide, only the Moon controlling that tide is whatever the speculative investors see as positive or negative omens for the industry, and it’s all, so far, ephemeral.

And I think the entire inflation boast is a bit of an empty shirt, because inflation of the money supply is a good thing, in concert with the performance of an economy. Most investors are not aware of all the nuance that goes into the basilisk called inflation, as evidenced by the failure of the monster to appear during the “quantitative easing” of the Great Recession, despite the invocations of the economists & Republicans who claimed to be appalled at any attempts to ease the burdens of that recession. And I’ll readily admit that I’m among those ranks.

But combine the proclamations of the separation of the politicians from the levers of the printing presses with a word ungracefully gaining approbation, algorithm, and I don’t see cryptocurrencies gaining real prominence. This can change: a big country choosing to back a cryptocurrency, an entire industry embracing them while rejecting traditional currencies, these are how a currency gains superior function.

But until that happens, cryptocurrencies will not be a safe place to park spare cash, but rather a chance to watch it all disappear. And I’m not sure it’ll ever happen.

And I say that as a non-financial professional.

Word Of The Day

Wishcycling:

Wishcycling is putting something in the recycling bin and hoping it will be recycled, even if there is little evidence to confirm this assumption.

Hope is central to wishcycling. People may not be sure the system works, but they choose to believe that if they recycle an object, it will become a new product rather than being buried in a landfill, burned or dumped. [“Do you wishcycle? If so, you’re actually not helping to recycle.“, Jessica Heiges and Kate O’Neill, WaPo]

And onwards to unintended consequences:

The U.S. recycling industry was launched in the 1970s in response to public concern over litter and waste. The growth of recycling and collection programs changed consumers’ view of waste: It didn’t seem entirely bad if it could lead to the creation of new products via recycling.

Good intentions and all of that.

Not A Headscratcher

By the way, I’m back from vacation and trying to recover. Insert interjection of your choice here.


WaPo decided to take another look at that phenomenon of being secular and found someone who seems to think they’ve found a flaw:

Another book, “Secularism: The Basics,” out this month from Georgetown University professor Jacques Berlinerblau, focuses on political secularism and argues that while Americans may be growing less religious, their government and courts are becoming less secular. The gap, he says, inflames culture-war debates in areas such as vaccine exemptions, LGBTQ rights and government funding for religious schools. Unchecked free exercise of religion, Berlinerblau argues, deprives religious minorities of equal protection under the law.

And the United States, he says, is way behind in developing a secularism for the current era.

“There has been no innovation in secular thought in 50 years, few new policy ideas,” Berlinerblau said in an interview. “There’s no coherence, no leadership, no central movement. They can’t articulate what they want it to do.”

Well, I would hardly call secularism a coherent movement, since it’s defined by its lack of central organizing principle, aka the divine. Some of the secular simply want the abuse of themselves to stop, some still want the spiritual, whatever that might be, without the organized religion, while others reject the entire basis of the divine, and yet others, such as myself, simply refuse to come to the final conclusion. This last indecisive group are known as agnostics, at least in my mind.

But I think, after some sensibly drawn-out debate on the matter, the secular would come to the conclusion that they would like to see the power structures with which humanity is inevitably saddled to be unavoidably linked with, and measured against, reality.

After all, we look around and see folks swearing fealty to divine creatures for which there is little evidence of existence, and that evidence is dubious in the extreme. We see folks loudly proclaiming one day that Covid is a hoax, or nothing to worry about, and the next day the owner of that big mouth is rushed to a hospital with, yes, Covid. We know people who’ve lost family, friends, and enemies to Covid, and still stubbornly turn their heads to other explanations, then they themselves go to the hospital, barely able to draw that breath necessary to deny the reality of Covid.

And all of that seems most likely to be caused by their emotional need to hold a position of some prestige and prominence. I don’t believe in Covid, and that makes me better! is the implied message. In their community, that marks the Covid-disbelievers as a prominent member. Remember, being an apostate makes you shit, so, along with some other motivations such as retaining friends, even if they’re frightened, they stick to their public beliefs and actions, because that brings them prestige and position.

Do I have data to prove this? No, it’s conjecture, based on the actions and utterances of anti-vaxxers, as well as members of QAnon, and a few other groups that dispute conventional explanations of what we all see. The motivation towards power, prestige, and wealth in human societies is incredibly important and underestimated, especially by those who put great value on facts and truth.

Because they – and ME – tend to be quite naive about anti-vaxxers, those of QAnon, and so many other silly damn groups.

Word Of The Day

Dialetheism:

It feels like common sense to say that all statements must be true or false. Aristotle called it “the most certain of principles”. But is it? Some philosophers hold the radical view that statements can be both true and false, which is called dialetheism. This view is gaining traction among logicians because of the way it can help with paradoxes.

What are we to make of this strange idea? One big problem for dialetheism is that it allows direct contradictions to exist and this leads to a well-known difficulty in logic called the problem of explosion. If it is fine to say it is raining and not raining, then our entire basis for belief and action blows up. [“A new way to solve paradoxes can help you think more clearly,” Professor Margaret Cuonzo, NewScientist (8 January 2022, paywall)]

Book Review: The Shepherd’s Life

The Shepherd’s Life, by James Rebanks, chronicles the lives of three generations of shepherds in the north of England, their days of caring for the flocks of the fell. But just as important as the flocks is the impact of the outside world on this way of life.

Perhaps most interesting to me was the subordination of profit to the importance of passing on values and protecting what is really valued. It’s not held up as some sort of panacea or idyll, as he recognizes its flaws and almost inevitable consequences, but the refusal to worship at the idol of profit in preference to defending a way of running society implies a recognition that tomorrow’s excess penny doesn’t pay for that which is destroyed by its sale. Would that such a mentality existed in the bankers’ world.

While I found the structure a trifle repetitive, I always find a peek into another world enjoyable as well as instructive, and this is very well done.

Recommended.

Everyone Has Their Misperceptions

Out in the political world, it seems everyone has their misperceptions. For example, the Democrats seem unconscious of the damage their botch of the handling the transgender issue has, and continues, to do them. In fact, misperception is the topic of Erick Erickson’s post today, which is both important for both sides, and ironic since he had the balls to write this piece of complete bullshit:

It would also be silly for the GOP to put in office a man who’d be no younger than Joe Biden is now. The GOP has a remarkable bench with deep experience. Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Doug Ducey, Kristi Noem, Ron DeSantis, and Mike Pence all have tremendous experience and all are younger than either President Trump or President Biden. Regardless of what you think about any of them individually, it would be a bit nuts to give up a potential eight years for any one of them for no more than four years for a second Trump term.

With the possible exception of Governor Ducey (R-AZ), who carries around the anchor of having ignored President Trump in his hour of fellatio and thus is probably a lost cause when it comes to capturing the GOP nomination in 2024 – although Erickson would argue differently – ask any one of them about their list of accomplishments and it’s very short, undistinguished, and, in many cases, items will be presented as an accomplishment when they’re blunders. This is especially true of Noem and DeSantis, who bore keen responsibility during the pandemic and did not cover themselves in glory.

And, I might add, this is a repeat of the 2016 Presidential nomination run, where the exact same phrase was deployed, and that huge field of 16 or more candidates was wiped out by then-candidate Trump, a political amateur who then proceeded to blunder away his victory in the general election with bad rhetoric and no follow-through. Erickson, et al, frantically repeating “remarkable bench” doesn’t make it so, just as it didn’t eight years ago. The fact of the matter is that then and now the field was a pack of ineffectual ideologues from the Senate, feel good amateurs from the business world, and incompetents from governors’ chairs, all with no accomplishments to speak of.

I think it’s a bit early, but I suspect in two years we’ll start seeing business leaders stepping into the race and rattling the cages of Rubio, Cruz, and whoever else is in the race, and, if they’re wise, asking what accomplishments to which they can point. The list will be embarrassingly short.

And Haley, perhaps the most accomplished of the lot, will come in fourth.