Professor Turchin’s Secular Cycles, his and Sergey Nefedov’s review of structural demographic theory and how it applies to several case studies of agrarian societies, comes in two parts. The first is the integrative phase, where land is cheap, the hinterlands are empty but populating, the non-elites are in demand and growing, the elite is small, and prosperity is stable or increasing.
The second is the disintegrative phase, in which prosperity is declining for the non-elites, the elite is overpopulated and fighting among themselves, often existentially, to retain their positions, land is ruinously expensive for the non-elite due to overpopulation, famine may be rampant, and the hinterlands are emptying out of everyone but wealthy land-owners and their minions.
I think, with all due respect to the fact that we are no longer an agrarian society, that the dominance of the technological facet of our society doesn’t invalidate the application of Secular Cycles to Western Civ, but instead accelerates cycles.
So when I read this passage from Steve Benen, it seemed eerily familiar:
If the GOP bill becomes law [and it has – haw], millions will lose their health care coverage. Millions will be hungrier. Rural hospitals will close. The debt will grow by trillions of dollars. Struggling families will have less money in their pockets. Businesses that rely on immigrant labor will fail.
And the vice president apparently wants the Americans who will be worse off to believe all of these consequences should be seen as “immaterial.” ICE raids matter, the Ohio Republican effectively argued, and nothing else does.
Rural hospitals closing, immigration being choked off. If that’s what happens, the hinterlands are going to be squeezed by removing medical services and labor, and, watching influencers left and right, it’s not hard to believe the elite is under a lot of pressure to grow unsustainably as non-elite scrabble to join the elite, and children of the elite, many or even most not really qualified, try to refuse to slide into the abyss of, well, being mundane.
It’s Turchin and Nefedov’s application of structural demographic theory, albeit on a smaller time scale.
What haven’t we seen so far? Civil war. Violence has been isolated and generally originates with fringe players who believe too earnestly in their ideologies. Erickson would probably disagree,
Our democracy is fine. Progressives are not. They are deeply unwell and talking themselves towards violence.
But as he can’t be bothered to mention the Hortman assassination here in Minnesota, originating with a far-right fringer, we can conclude Erickson is a partisan, not a neutral pundit, and thus loses value as a prognosticator. Still, I think every liberal in the land would benefit from meditating on this paragraph, from the same post:
Instead of looking in the mirror to assess why voters rejected them, progressives have chosen to blame the voter, declare democracy dead, and they will head towards violence to take back what they think is theirs.
I don’t think he gets the Why, only the What. The Why is that the Democrats look like autocrats, just like the Republicans – although I’m hoping the Minnesota brand of Republicans, being the up close witnesses of one of their own shooting up the opposition, will be retreating to more civilized positions.
We shall see.