THEY’RE NOT CHESS PIECES, ALTHOUGH SOME WOULD LOOK GOOD CARVED OUT OF WOOD
President Trump, in his desperation to treat Republican Senators like his personal chess set, may be dooming his midterm results, instead.
Trump on Wednesday told rally-goers in Georgia to “call John Thune” over the Senate GOP’s inability to pass a partisan election bill, known as the SAVE America Act, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday said the president’s patience with the South Dakota Republican is “running out.”
But if Trump’s rhetoric is meant to drive Republican voters to the polls this fall — and some allies believe it will only increase ahead of November — it does little to change the reality in the Senate, where the SAVE America Act still doesn’t have the votes to pass. Instead, many Republicans on Thursday came to their leader’s defense, acknowledging an unwinnable standoff between the president and their 53-seat majority.
“This idea that he can just command members of the Republican conference to get in line is just a fantasy. So I think it’s unfair,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who ran against Thune for majority leader in 2024 and then lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger earlier this year. “I don’t know who it was that sold the president on this idea, that this was obtainable, but it’s creating a circular firing squad for Republicans.” [Politico]
President Trump may view this as a matter of political survival. If the Democrats win Congress, he may believe they’ll impeach him, and, if so, a conviction in the Senate would result not only in his being barred from the Presidency, but also in the resumption of legal proceedings against him at both State and Federal levels, up to and including imprisonment. Furthermore, investigations may resume, and if the rest of his family has been involved in nefarious deeds in the pursuit of money, they, too, could find their freedoms endangered.
But let’s take this a bit further. As a self-proclaimed billionaire, he’s made it clear that he views himself as a superior human who shouldn’t be subject to the same rules as us mere hoi-polloi. Now, it’s not unknown for folks to band together around some shared characteristic, even when they don’t like certain members of the group, because they view that shared characteristic as more important than their personal dislikes.
It’s not unlikely that such a group, bonded by their immense wealth, would become very concerned if Trump’s freedoms were endangered, because that would imply their own vulnerability to government restrictions. What would happen then? Open warfare? Covert warfare? Assassinations?
And will any of this elaborate conspiracy theory occur? I still see the Democrats flipping the House; their chances in the Senate are much less, and even if they do take the Senate, persuading enough Republicans to convict their President seems unlikely, as Tillis, Cassidy, and Cornyn will have been replaced, although listing their replacements could lead to some interesting scenarios.
But, in general, GOP Senators are becoming quite unhappy with the President. The President may be forced into unexpected concessions under threat from GOP Senators post-election. The horse-trading may become a spectacular sport.
FUTURE REALITIES HANGING OVER THEIR HEADS
All of which leads up to the dawning realization among the GOP faithful that their understanding of the American world is perhaps not up to snuff.
Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.
A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.
The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections. [WaPo]
The dangers of the epistemic bubble, eh, the mistake of talking only to ideologically similar folks? Yes, although the Democrats have problems of their own, such as immigration and autocratic inclinations.
It’s far too late for new Parties supplanting the old, but maybe in 2028.
AND NOW THE MAIN EVENT
Last week’s main event was held in Paris. Paris, Texas. It was called the Ephemera Championships, and the trophy was constructed of solidified invisible ink.
- Michigan is a center of Senate campaign activity in this issue, as open seats often prove to be.
- First up is former Rep Mike Rogers (R), presumptive nominee of the Michigan Republicans, and, well, I’ll call it his big, monarchical mouth:
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers has found a new reason for Michiganders to open their wallets: He wants them to help protect Elon Musk from congressional accountability.
In a fundraising appeal sent Saturday, Rogers warned supporters that Democrats would use control of the Senate to subpoena Musk over his role in the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which carried out sweeping cuts across the federal government.
“When you stand with my Senate campaign today, you are directly shielding Elon Musk,” Rogers wrote. He then asked for an “immediate, urgent contribution right now to protect Elon and save America.” [Detroit Metro Times]
Monarchs are, more than often, shielded from most forms of accountability. Just call Rogers a King George lover. See if he twitches. While Republican voters may consider all Democrats unacceptable, independents should see this as a profoundly un-American statement, and vote for someone other than Rogers.
- CNN has a subscriber article entitled, In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat. The Republican is former Rep Rogers, and that Democrat is Abdul el-Sayed, one of the two remaining Democrats in the Michigan Senate primary. Is it a ploy or an unvarnished opinion? The latter, I suspect.
- Third, Governor Whitmer (D-MI) is in the endorsement sweepstakes and has endorsed El-Sayed’s primary rival, Rep Haley Stevens (D), for the Michigan Senate seat.
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On The Issues: Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI).
I don’t generally pay attention to polls from Glengariff Group, owing to their poor evaluation results when FiveThirtyEight was still around, but I was intrigued by their latest poll in Michigan. It’s not a direct comparison of the intra-Party rivals in the Democratic primary, but more of a message to primary voters: Rep Stevens (D) has a 46-45% lead, within the margin of error of ±4.0 points, over presumptive Republican nominee and former Rep Mike Rogers (R), but Stevens rival Abdul El-Sayed (D) trails Rep Rogers, not Stevens, by 10 points, 49%-39%. If we assume Glengariff slanted their results, then this may be another sign of the coming rift between progressives and moderate Democrats. However, the fly in this conspiracy ointment is summarized to the right & above: Rep Haley’s position strikes me as more progressive than moderate, even though she’s described as the moderate and El-Sayed as the progressive.
- First up is former Rep Mike Rogers (R), presumptive nominee of the Michigan Republicans, and, well, I’ll call it his big, monarchical mouth:
- The Maine Democratic Party Senate nominee is officially Troy Jackson. For whatever “official” is worth, as Graham Platner was also official, having won the primary. If Jackson is as volatile as described, we may yet see another nominee from the Maine Democrats. If such happens, I may have to make vaguely insulting comparisons to the process of replacing former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
- The appointment of Trump-endorsed Darline Graham (R-SC) to her late brother’s South Carolina Senate seat, and her reported interest in the primary for the next general election in November, has not yet resulted in the clearing of the field. Perhaps she’s seen as a weak candidate in this context.The primary special election is scheduled for 11 August.
- In Texas pollster Texas Public Opinion Research gives James Talarico (D) a 45%-40% lead over state AG Ken Paxton (R), with a margin of error of ±3.4 points. I wonder if Senator Cornyn (R) would do better?Perhaps Texas Public Opinion Research should put former Governor Ventura (I-MN) on their Board of Directors, as he was adamant that politics is not a horserace, and yet there it is:
Paxton v. Talarico Horserace
- I don’t see much out of Montana, so GQR, which had a respectable, if not amazing, rating from FiveThirtyEight, is worth reporting. They give US District Attorney Kurt Alme (R) a 41% share, Seth Bodnar (I) 27%, and Rep Bankhead (D) 22%. Bankhead’s name recognition is abysmal at 63% and, until she repairs that omission she’ll not have a chance. Two other polls from other pollsters have similar numbers. These numbers speak for themselves, but it’s not simple to predict those of tomorrow.
THAT IRRITATING LAST WORD
Montana will not be flipped unless Bodnar drops out, and Maine is slowly fading from Democrats’ hopes. Still, there’s plenty of time for something to happen.
