NAKED POLITICS AND ITS REPULSIVE FIELD
Many Americans have an innate sense of fairness, and are often repulsed when politicians attempt to manipulate the system in a manner that might be considered improper. When I saw this in WaPo,
Supreme Court clears path for Louisiana to redraw map in redistricting fight
with this content
… I had to wonder how many moderate Republicans and independents will, in reaction to naked Republican power-hoarding, withdraw their support from extremist candidates and either not participate, or protest-vote for independents or even Democrats. This may stir up non-participating voters as well, as neighbors and family add this element to their attempts to bring those non-participants out to vote.
Backfire? Maybe, maybe not. It’s a difficult consequence to predict, and perhaps obviated by the gerrymandering that stirs it up.
You! You Don’t Have The Defiance!
Some Democrats are dissatisfied with Senator Schumer’s (D-NY) party leadership, according to this MS NOW report:
Schumer first recruited [former Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown] to run for the Senate two decades ago, and the former senator remains the party’s strongest prospect in a state where Democrats have long struggled. His nomination reflects Schumer’s calculated strategy of backing candidates with proven crossover appeal, such as former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper.
But that cautious formula has sparked blowback from progressives who argue that Schumer has misread the political moment.
Schumer “has an idea of what voters want that’s stuck in 1996,” Amanda Litman, co-founder of the progressive group Run For Something, told NOTUS, adding that he is “deeply removed from the anger that people feel.”
It’s an aphorism that the power-hungry blow up things in order to get the attention that’ll let them scale the heights, and accusing your party leadership of being ineffective is certainly one way to boom things.
But is it justified? Senator Schumer, in alliance with Speaker Pelosi (D-CA), beat the crap out of President Trump in his first term; since then, Speaker Pelosi resigned as Speaker, and has announced her retirement from the House at the end of this term. Part of her power came from being Speaker, so if the Democrats can continue a well-documented rally of special elections into the November general election, Schumer should be able to ally himself with presumed Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Such an alliance, as natural as it sounds, can be unusual, as Senators often see themselves as apart from their brethren in the House. Some Founding Fathers even based the governmental structure they developed on that prediction.
But Schumer may have limitations:
The limits of Schumer’s approach were on display last week in Maine. Gov. Janet Mills, whom Schumer recruited to challenge Sen. Susan Collins, dropped out of the primary after failing to keep pace with the fundraising of populist newcomer Graham Platner. It was a stinging defeat for the Democratic establishment, which had hoped Mills’ executive experience would neutralize Platner’s grassroots momentum.
The question is whether this is an unbreachable wall, or a mistake suggesting a problem in his judgment that can be corrected. The latter is one of the features of being an adult.
On the other side of the equation are the progressives yammering for power, as embodied by Litman, from the above quote. Long-time readers are well-aware that I view the strategy of transgender advocates to advance their cause to be profoundly flawed, contributing to the Republican victory of 2024, and creating a group of independents who view the Democrats and the left with deep, if not always perceptive, skepticism. Since then, it’s not been clear to me that progressives recognized and corrected their mistake; nor do Democrats, although Governor Newsom (D-CA) and Rep Moulton (D-MA) have made noises that at least indicate some awareness of this sinkhole of a blunder.
Add to that a progressive inclination towards being a purist, much like the far-right, and I have doubts about the judgment of progressives. I could be wrong, sure, but that’s how I’m reading this today.
Following in their Footsteps
The sand is about a foot deep and conceals many creatures that want to nip at your heels. Run.
- This is not a good look for a Senate candidate:
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Royce White is subject to a no-contact order after a Minnesota judge ruled there was credible evidence of threats of harm toward his ex-wife and one of two children they have together.
In court filings, White is accused of making numerous threats and being both physically and verbally abusive toward his former partner and their teenaged son. He refutes the allegations and is appealing judicial findings in the case, telling MPR News on Thursday the order is a “substantial miscarriage of justice” and “excessively punitive.” [MPR News]
It being Minnesota, Mr. White (R), no relation, had little chance of beating either Lt Governor Flanagan (D) or Rep Craig (D), who I perceive to be the leading Democratic candidates, assuming he’d won his primary – and that’s no sure thing. Now his chances are even less. Primaries are Aug 11. Minnesota GOP Chairman Alex Plechash might be well-advised to focus on the gubernatorial race, which features Minnesota House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R) and may be winnable due to Governor Walz’s (D) ill-handling of the fraud in food assistance, and ignore the Senate race, which lacks distinguished names on the GOP side.
There’s also a bad look for MPR News here. Refutes is emphatically not the right word, since no evidence is offered, nor court order cited; denies, or a synonym, is the appropriate word. Hire back your copy-editors, management, they make you look smart!
- Kansas may, or may not, suddenly have a race on its hands. Entering into a Democratic primary mostly made up of inexperienced names of no familiarity, with the exceptions of state Senator Patrick Schmidt (D) and city council (Wellington) member Michael Soetaert (D), comes the Rev. Adam Hamilton:
The pastor of the largest United Methodist Church in the U.S. launched a campaign Thursday for the Democratic nomination for a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas, upending the race in a normally Republican state as the GOP’s small majority seems less secure than it was a year ago.
The Rev. Adam Hamilton enters the race as a potentially formidable candidate, though it appears likely that at least a few of the eight other, lesser-known Democrats who previously launched campaigns would remain in the Aug. 4 primary. The winner will face incumbent Republican Roger Marshall, who aligned himself closely with President Donald Trump in his first run for the Senate in 2020. [AP]
Rev Hamilton has no experience with electoral office, but he does have this:
Hamilton, 61, has a national following among mainline Protestants, and he’s built his Church of the Resurrection over the past 35 years in the Kansas City area with about 22,000 members — giving him a base from which to tap volunteers and donors.
Unless he has a poor local reputation, I expect he’ll win the primary. If he can also win the support of Kansas Democrats, he’ll have a shot against Senator Marshall (R), who will bear the burden of being an avid Trump supporter. Kansas has had a Democratic governor for a while, and that may give an added boost to the Democrats, assuming Gov Kelly (D) doesn’t commit an unforced error. The combination of a Democratic governor (her On The Issues summation is unavailable, but captions as Moderate Liberal) and a cleric who seems unlikely to be a lefty extremist may play very well against Senator Marshall (R), rated as a Hard-Core Conservative, if Kansas voters disapprove of the circus playing out in our Nation’s capital.
Looking at FiftyPlusOne, I see a poll by Tavern Research, an unfamiliar pollster, so their result showing Rev Hamilton leading Senator Marshall is untrustworthy at present. It does suggest Rev Hamilton at least has a chance.
- Speaking of Senator Schumer’s party leadership – it’s up in the intro section, I’ll wait while you look – it seems a candidate for the to-be-open Michigan Senate seat thinks Schumer’s endorsement is a disastrous burden to bear:
… Michigan Senate hopeful Mallory McMorrow pivoted to social media to remind voters of her defiance, noting she was “the only candidate in this race” who said she would not support Schumer as Democratic leader. The Michigan state senator is currently locked in a brutal three-way primary against former health official Abdul El-Sayed and the Schumer-backed Rep. Haley Stevens. [MS NOW]
I have to wonder how many voters pay attention to party leaders, although I suppose President Trump is a larger than life leader for a lot of voters. The problem for politicians, and folks in many others walks of life, is that their circle includes many that are just like them. Soon enough, something that is significant to them and their group, but insignificant to others, leaks out because they forget they’re not necessarily talking to their group. Social media being what it is, and the fact that it’s quoted, suggests this wasn’t a private communication, but of a public character. So this announcement may have little impact.
In other news, former Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has endorsed Rep Stevens.
Recall that Emerson College, on the last report, had Stevens down by 9 points. Will this continue? The Michigan primary is 4 Aug.
- In Kentucky, Rep Andy Barr (R-KY) has received President Trump’s endorsement, and receiver of Elon Musk’s largess, Nate Morris, has dropped out of the Republican primary. The name Musk is not magical. Will Trump’s name be a drag on Barr? Maybe not in Kentucky.
Primaries are 19 May. Barr should win his primary. In the Democratic primary, Charles Booker was last reported to have a lead, but polls are scarce.
- Emerson College has a poll out showing Massachusetts Senator Markey (D) has a 37% – 32% lead over Rep Moulton (D). It appears progressives’ allergy to Moulton doesn’t apply to all likely Democratic primary voters, and I’m surprised Senator Markey’s in trouble, as incumbents are rarely in trouble, and Senator Markey is not, to best of my knowledge, plagued by crippling scandals. In the last report I noted University of New Hampshire Polling gave Markey a comfortable lead, which was 46% – 33%. Has the passage of less than a month changed voter preferences that much? Or has one of these highly respected pollsters made a mistake?
- Last Tuesday the winners of their primaries in Ohio were former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) and incumbent Senator Jon Husted (R). The latter, unopposed, gathered nearly twice as many votes as did the former. Democrats were bored with the contest? Sherrod took nearly 90% of the ballots, so there’s little question that he’s the selection. But can he win after this paltry primary turnout?
- In Georgia two polls by dubious or unknown pollsters agree that Rep Collins (R) leads by around 10 points in the Republican primary, but Undecided is still a larger percentage of the likely primary voters.
- A University of Houston poll is giving AG Paxton (R) a 48% – 45% lead over incumbent Senator Cornyn (R) in the Texas Republican primary run-off. Such a tight race must be giving President Trump the night sweats, as he has yet to bestow an endorsement. Democratic nominee James Talarico probably feels he can beat either one the Republicans.
- In Virginia Public Sentiment Institute suggests that Senator Warner (D) will easily defeat any of the Republicans registered in the primary. Problem is, I have no idea who Public Sentiment Institute might be.
- Finally, this message from Lauren Egan of The Bulwark sounds quite unlikely:
THE MERE SUGGESTION that Democrats could win the Mississippi Senate race this cycle can produce dismissive eyerolls. (Trust me, I’ve seen it often enough from my editor.)
But as I’ve been talking with party officials and operatives over the past few months, no race is as regularly mentioned, or elicits as much excitement, as this one. They argue that circumstances are converging to flip a state that Donald Trump won by a 23-point margin: There is a charismatic Democrat [Scott Colom] at the top of the ticket, the state’s large black population is being mobilized, and there is a generationally weak Republican incumbent. As longtime Democratic strategist James Carville, who lives part-time along Mississippi’s Gulf Coast, put it to me: “It would take a unique set of circumstances, but we just might be operating under a unique set of circumstances.”
Uh huh. My last known relative living in Mississippi died almost a decade ago, and I’ve not visited since I was a kid, so I’m not really qualified to judge the atmosphere down there. Show me a respectable poll. And keep that mad humidity OFF of me.
A DREADED WORD
There’s a word, lethal to majority political parties, that’ll cause their balloons to deflate with a hideous racket. It’s being noised about by a traditional American corporation:
Whirlpool has a word for what’s happening to its business. Two, actually, and both of them are “recession.”
On the company’s first-quarter earnings call Wednesday, CEO Marc Bitzer and North America president Juan Carlos Puente both reached for the same term to describe what the war in Iran has done to U.S. appliance demand. Industry shipments fell 7.4% in the first quarter, with March alone plunging 10%. “This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods,” Bitzer told analysts.
Puente, describing the segment’s results, said the North America business experienced “recession-level industry contractions, with discretionary demand down approximately 15%.” [Fortune via yahoo!finance]
This adds to the pressure on Republican politicians, on the ballot or not. This is especially so because, unlike many recessions that are difficult to trace, or are due to legislative actions best blamed on a small group of legislators, this one is due to the actions of the American President and his legislative allies who, being unprepared amateurs who thought the job of President and/or legislator will be easy, instead are discovering governance, unlike being critics as many were beforehand, is bloody hard.
Will the American electorate give them the benefit of the doubt and not punish the Republicans?
I doubt it. The current crop of critics, regardless of political position or lack thereof, has not failed to make its critiques of President Trump’s actions heard, whether it’s to call tariffs a domestic tax, predict mass layoffs of Federal workers will lead to government inefficiency, bombing Iran will run counter to the goals of the President, or any of a host of other actions. The Republicans have repeatedly backed him, too, and that makes them …
CULPABLE.
Yes, the Democrats do have a collection of problems. Much like the Republicans, they seem to have lost their guidebook to how democracies work, anointing Kamala Harris in, admittedly, a bad circumstance, lying vociferously concerning President Biden’s mental health (again, kudos to former Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) for trying to get the word out), and using vicious bullying tactics when advocating for the transgender, rather than following American tradition by starting a debate on the subject.
But the Democrats also have a lot of competency when it comes to American governance, even if some of their policies are questionable. This makes them a logical, if distasteful, choice, and I think many Americans will make that choice.
