The State of the Union address, or SOTU, for 2026 may be quite predictable, and yet most at variance in the history SOTU presentations. I expect President Trump, who is facing multiple challenges, mostly of his own making, to treat this as a campaign rally rather than a sober status report, because the latter would put him in a very poor light. Wondering about that?
- Tariffs. His loss in Learning Resources was a devastating riposte to his claims of having total freedom to impose tariffs. Don’t take his claims since then that his powers are greater than ever to actually be honest; my read is that he’s desperately trying to patch the leaky dinghy of State, and … he doesn’t know how to patch a dinghy. He’ll address the issue tonight, and it’ll be a repeat of his written claims. SCOTUS blew a hole in his claims and he has no real way to rebut.
- House of Representatives. His slim majority has been shrinking into near-oblivion, and now there’s rumors that Rep Gonzalez (R-TX) may be resigning soon. His policies have led to the GOP House advantage being less than the Senate’s, and if Gonzalez departs then it’ll be temporarily at nothing, though there are upcoming special elections which might help put Speaker Johnson back in the black, so to speak.
- 2020 Election. Will he once again repeat his claims that he won the 2020 Presidential election, “in a landslide!” Sure. It’s part, even the principal glue, binding MAGA to him; its solvent, which he’s desperately fighting, is the Epstein Files. It also may have a function on his religious side, the repetition that prosperity theology uses to get what they want. They think.
- Epstein Files. Bank on hearing how the release of the Epstein Files exonerated him. He’s hoping the great majority of MAGA isn’t going to go through the Epstein Files. He’s not wrong, but contending with those MAGA leaders who will and have gone through them is a major challenge. I’m guessing he’ll spend a good five minutes claiming exoneration.
Don’t tune in to hear how things are going, although when they cast a flattering light on the President, he’ll mention them. Iran may be mentioned, the Gordie Howe bridge, etc.
It’ll all about the President. Not the country.
