The Cliff’s In Sight! The Cliff’s In Sight! Don’t Let Them Catch Us! Faster!
(New Minnesota Viking Slogan?)
Any Thoughts On The House?
Not really. Once, maybe twice I’ve mentioned I expect a Democratic pickup of roughly forty seats, despite brave Republican speculations on strengthening their current minuscule majority.
But now Fenris Hero on Daily Kos suggests that Mr Trump’s reference to a “little secret” that reassures Mr Trump may actually turn into an advantage for the Democrats standing for office:
NBC did some research on issues and how voters react to them. One of the biggest losers is 2020 election denialism. Democrats have been hammering away at this issue, and the GOP has loudly refused to exist within the bounds of reality. While this was viewed as a side show to most voters, Trumps own words could draw this front and center. Most voters rightly don’t want anything like the 2020 election chaos occurring again. Trump has just not so subtly promised that he intends to rekindle that chaos with the help of a GOP House. Every GOP House candidate is now potentially a vote to try and ignore the results of the 2024 presidential election.
It’s an interesting speculation, particularly if Mr Trump decides to try to use it to boost his campaign. A forty seat wave, if this is true, might be an underestimate.
And it may boost some Democratic candidates for Senate as well.
Viva Something!
- A high quality pollster, or so history suggests, polls Montana: Emerson College (2.9) gives challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) a three point lead over Senator Jon Tester (D-MT), 51%-48%. There are two questions appertaining to this poll: 1. Does Emerson College’s position on the spectrum of results from high quality pollsters for 2024 as being on the right end, at least my impression thereof, mean that Emerson College is underestimating those voters inclined to vote for the the Senator? 2. Does the general polling problem, observed over the last couple of years, of underestimating the Democrats’ final count by several to many points in special elections and abortion-amendments country-wide, apply to this election? I’d rate this election a toss-up.
- Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) has only a 1+ point lead over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?), 46%-44%, according to pollster Suffolk University (2.9), working for USA Today. Suffolk’s 2.9 rating is certainly impressive, which simply makes me wonder even more why their poll, beyond obvious practical reasons, has a sample size of only 500 likely voters, and thus a rather large margin of error of ±4.4 points. Is confidence in these results justified?
- The delightfully named St. Pete Polls (2.4), sponsored by Florida Politics, has Senator Scott (R-FL) up by three, 49%-46%, over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) in Florida.
- Who’s ahead in Texas? Depends who you ask. GBAO Strategies (a miserable 1.2), and sponsored by candidate Rep Allred (D-TX), has the race as even at 46%, but a poorly rated pollster with a biased sponsor is obviously a dubious source of information. Why does Politico cite it without qualifiers, then? Bad organization! Go lay down by your dish!
Meanwhile, The New York Times/Siena College (top of the heap 3.0) finds Senator Cruz (R-TX) with a four point lead over Rep Allred, 50%-46%. Besides the obvious clash with the Emerson College (2.9) finding of a single point lead in the previous Texas update, NYT/Siena has seemed to be on the conservative side of the high quality pollster spectrum throughout the 2024 campaign, much like Emerson College. Or is it just me and my delusions? We’ll find out in the 1+ weeks, depending on how fast votes are counted.
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On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).
If you’re a registered voter in Nebraska, then The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) gives Dan Osborn (I-NB, Democratic Party-endorsed) a one point lead, 47%-46%, over Senator Fischer (R-NB). But for likely voters, the lead flips to Senator Fischer, 48%-46%. So it appears tight. The question for the hesitant Nebraska voter is whether you believe a hard right extremist like Senator Fischer (see right) will be abashed by a close race, or whether Nebraska simply needs to replace her as not representing Nebraska values.
- Next door in Missouri, Senator Hawley is damned (R-MO) by The New Republic:
Missouri Senator Josh Hawley is treating his home state of Missouri like a flyover state, according to a new report that shows just how rarely the hawkish Republican lawmaker returns there.
Records of Hawley’s taxpayer-funded travels reviewed by St. Louis Magazine revealed that the Missouri Republican has traveled between Washington, D.C., and the Show-Me State only 33 times between March 2019 and January 2024—an average of six times per year.
Many of Hawley’s trips were short: Eight of them involved Hawley hightailing out of Missouri after less than 48 hours. More than half the time, Hawley was traveling home around the holidays, which tended to be longer stays. Hawley’s longest trip home was between April 1, 2020, and May 1, 2020, around the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Someone remind me: When did The New Republic gain the power of damning? This seems like weak tea to me, but perhaps Missourians will disagree.
- In the allegedly tight Senate race in Pennsylvania, some folks at Politico think Mr Trump just shot himself in the foot with the Latino vote. It’s behind a paywall, but TonyDem4life on Daily Kos provides the meat of the matter here. Will there be a poll reflecting a change in judgment? There may not be enough time, excepting, of course, the only poll that matters.
This may be the object lesson in why supporting a dementia patient in hopes of manipulating him after he wins is an unwise strategy. Of course, President Putin and other interfering foreign citizens are relatively safe from blowback. But how about Republican elected officials? How many will retain their positions and the respect of their constituents in the near future? Are we beginning to see the final exhaustion of the ideological weaponry that’s been keeping Republicans afloat all these years?
At The Bottom Of The Bin
Trafalgar Group (0.7), InsiderAdvantage (2.0), Patriot Polling (1.1), and North Star Opinion Research (1.1).
The Conclusion And Its Meal
We’re down to the last week, and it’s hard to say how many more worthwhile polls are going to show up. Add in the fact that the arthritis in my shoulder is bad enough to require surgery, and I can’t guarantee anything more in this thread, although I’ll try if material comes available.
Otherwise, stay —
