It’s been a frenzy out there, use an umbrella to stay safe from rogue polls….
Debacle: North Carolina
Will the North Carolina embarrassment of nominating Mark Robinson (R-NC) for the governor’s race, in light of his extremism and dubious viewing matter as a fundamentalist Christian, affect the Senate races?
Only among those voters actually paying attention, and, given how busy our lives have become, that’s not a big number.
Still, there will be independents for whom this is a final straw. But don’t try to count them, even if they break the camel’s back, it’ll be small.
And Now For That Frenzy
- kos of Daily Kos has a report on how the Republican’s fixation on Haitian immigrants eating pets, a fallacious claim according to those in the know, may come back to bite them on the ass in Florida.Speaking of Florida, I just learned that Amendment 3 on the 2024 Florida ballot concerns legalizing recreational marijuana, an issue that will certainly lure some otherwise dormant voters to the polls, and as Senator Scott’s reputation for having run a corrupt company, and then for being generally repugnant during his Senatorial term, are quite negative, voters may simply pick the “not-Rick Scott” on the ballot, regardless of their knowledge and/or opinion of his challenger.That said, Morning Consult (1.9) shows Senator Scott (R-FL) continuing to show a consistent lead over challenger former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 46%-42%.
- It did happen before: Pollster GQR (1.9) shows Missouri’s Senator Hawley (R-MO) with a mere four point lead over challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO), 50%-46%. These numbers are in stark contrast to the last Missouri Senate poll I cited, a YouGov (2.9) poll giving Senator Hawley a large lead. Their disparate ratings throw a shadow on GQR’s poll results.Casting more doubt on this result is the fact that the sponsor of this poll is Democratic candidate Mr Kunce. GQR is new to me, but pollsters are known to skew results to make for happy customers. Similarly, pollster Change Research (1.4) is giving Hawley a five point lead, 46%-41%.Finally, a poll I didn’t cite when it came out, as I consider(ed) Missouri a settled issue, is that of Remington Research Group (a very respectable 2.6) from a week earlier than the GQR poll, finding Senator Hawley with an even bigger 52%-37% lead (here’s a link, but it’s not very good).So why am I not discarding the GQR poll? There are too many unknowns. Is GQR willing to skew its results, or is this an honest result? Is this quote trustworthy?
“Hawley and his allies are clearly seeing the same movement in the polls,” a source close to the Kunce campaign told Newsweek on Friday, pointing to negative attack ads targeting the Democrat and increased ad spending by Hawley and his supporters.
Is it important? Are pollsters really having trouble gathering data reflecting the youth vote, as progressives claim and divergences between poll and election results over the last two years suggest, and maybe GQR found a way to reach them?
And what about the race between Senator Fischer (R-NE) and challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) in Nebraska? (Wait, what?) To recap, Mr. Osborn trailed Senator Fischer substantially in a series of dubious quality polls until highly respected YouGov (2.9), sponsored by Osborn, gave the Senator a two point lead, followed by similarly respected SurveyUSA (2.8), sponsored by Split Ticket, giving Senator Fischer a one point lead.
Sure, the analogy isn’t nearly perfect. GQR’s rating is not that of YouGov and SurveyUSA, for example. There were two polls in Nebraska, while only one in Missouri.
But there are also similarities. Republican political establishments in both States are unapologetically hostile towards abortion, motivated as they are by current social structures in their Party to be as uncompromising as possible. This attitude motivates otherwise dormant voters who’ve suddenly lost abortion protections and worry about it – and resent it. And there’ll be an abortion protection amendment on the Missouri ballot, a worthy encouragement.
Finally, Senators Hawley and Fischer have similar profiles when it comes to their political positions; indeed, Hawley’s made positive noises about Christian Nationalism, demonstrating either ignorance or arrogance shocking in a former law professor and current Senator concerning the history and makeup of politics and governance in America.
We’ll have to see more polls before deciding if this is an outlier poll – or a prescient poll.
Incidentally, Newsweek also provides some good context on the previous polls, for which they deserve an earnest pat on the back.
A Short While Later: Emerson College (2.9) has just published a poll giving Senator Hawley a twelve point lead, 51%-40%, over challenger Lucas Kunce. While, yes, Emerson has been trending a little conservative compared to other top pollsters, 11-12 points is quite a gap. Or even, perhaps, the GQR and Change Research polls, mentioned above, are wishful thinking.
- It’s not really worth mentioning: Lake Research Partners (1.2 … ugh) is awarding Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a 47%-43% lead over challenger Rep Allred (D-TX). That link isn’t really worth a click, and Texas Public Opinion Research is using a cut-rate pollster, so who knows if these numbers are good. However, the numbers are reasonable in the light of other polls.And here’s another one now: Morning Consult (1.9) is giving Rep Allred (D-TX) a small lead over Senator Cruz (R-TX), 45%-44%! Now, do you think Morning Consult is worth trusting?
- While it’s not unusual to hear that a politician is ambitious and arrogant, most of them usually figure out how to get along with the folks on their side. This may be another norm that’s breaking up in the Republican Party:
Donald Trump declined to formally endorse Steve Garvey, the Republican running for Senate in California.
“I don’t know much about Steve Garvey. I think he’s made a big mistake because he hasn’t reached out to MAGA,” Trump told reporters as he was leaving his news conference in Southern California. He added: “I’m hearing he wants the MAGA endorsement, but he’s got to call me.” [WaPo]
Not that the Democratic candidate for the late Senator Feinstein’s (D-CA) seat, Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA), is likely to lose, no matter what the Republicans do short of getting God to come on down and endorse Mr. Garvey.
But, you know, good for Mr Garvey and for California for shunning Mr Trump.
- Senator Brown (D-OH), defending his seat in Ohio against challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH), has another foe in league with Moreno: The cryptocurrency industry. The Senator does not seem unduly worried.For processed numbers, Morning Consult (1.9) gives the Senator a small lead of 46%-44%.
- In Minnesota, unknown pollster Embold Research, working for news site MinnPost, gives Senator Klobuchar (D-MN) an 11 point lead over challenger Royce White (R-MN), 52%-41%. A new pollster makes it hard to trust them, but eleven points is not entirely out of line.
Mr White may have more troubles than just a popular incumbent to defeat:
If you ask Minnesota Republicans about fellow GOP candidate Royce White, many are likely to pivot.
White is the only Minnesota Republican running statewide this year, but fellow GOPers are keeping a distance on the campaign trail from a candidate with past legal troubles and known for derogatory remarks, some of which align with conspiracy theories. [MPR News]
It’s hard to win when your Party is half-hearted about your candidacy.
- While Cygnal (2.1) may be a conservative pollster who seems to skew poll numbers, I’ll nevertheless note, in respect of their fairly good rating, that they give Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a mere one point lead, 44%-43%, over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) for the soon-to-be-empty Michigan seat. I’m sure that’s within the margin of error. It’s also a strong contrast to Morning Consult’s (1.9) polling showing a nine point lead for Slotkin in the last update. And then there’s a Quinnipiac University (2.8) poll showing Slotkin with a 51%-46%, or five point, lead, ker-plunk in the middle.
Marist College (2.8) has Slotkin leading 52%-45%, while Emerson College (2.9) has the lead at 47%-42%, and a later Morning Consult poll … this must be a typo, but I can’t verify it … a lead of 51%-37%. What does it all mean? Michigan may still be a tight race.
- Emerson College (2.9) is giving the Democratic candidate for the open Maryland seat, County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), a seven point lead, 49%-42%, over former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD … sort of). Morning Consult (1.9) gives Alsobrooks a bigger lead of 50%-39%, and Public Policy Polling (1.4) give Alsobrooks a ridiculous lead, at least in comparison with better rated pollsters, of 50%-33%. Honestly, I’m not taking that last pollster seriously, but there is a point made by them:
Part of Hogan’s problem is that a fair number of conservatives remain suspicious of him. His favorability with Trump voters is only 54/32 and that’s sending 14% of them over to vote for the Libertarian candidate. Hogan does tighten the race to 52-37 in a head to head but that represents a widening from 48-40 in June as well.
And the MAGA base is suspicious and inflexible. Either you’re bought fully into their world-view, or you are out. Often, right wing pundits will remark that the Republican tent is so big they’re hard to keep together, but, to my eye, it’s shrinking due to furious demands of purity, and we’ve been seeing such demands for more than a decade.
- Hey! Indiana does exist! Emerson College (2.9) is giving the Republican candidate for the open Indiana Senate seat, Rep Jim Banks (R-IN), a 47%-33% lead over Democrat Valerie McCray (D-IN). This is an improvement over the last Senate contest in Indiana, back just two years ago, when Senator Young (R-IN) won by 20+ points. The mountain still seems overwhelming for McCray.
- Suffolk University (2.9) is giving Pennsylvania’s Senator Casey (D-PA) a four point lead, 47%-43%, over Mr. McCormick (R-PA), which must be a bit disappointing for Pennsylvania Democrats. InsiderAdvantage (2.0) is scarcely more encouraging at 49%-44% for Casey, and a 2.0 rating is mediocre. Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is evenly balanced between Republicans and Democrats, or so recent history suggests, so Pennsylvanians will be exposed heavily to the Presidential candidates between now and November. If either has a public meltdown it may affect the Senate contest as well. Finally, Quinnipiac University (2.8) is giving the Senator a much larger lead, 52%-43%, with a margin of error of ±2.7 points. You don’t get to cancel Suffolk with Quinnipiac, Democrats, but you can try to reconcile the clashing results with yoga.A Little Later: SIX MORE POLLS appeared, ranging from the two being even (Washington Post) to a nine point lead (The New York Times/Siena College). Here’s the link, but it’s a dynamic page, I’m here to publish and not drive myself mad with data.
- Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) has two polls in her favor over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?): Quinnipiac University (2.8) gives her a 51%-47% lead, and Frankensteinian Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research (1.7) has the race at 50%-47%. Meanwhile, Emerson College (2.9) also gives Baldwin a lead, this time 49%-46%.
- Senator Warren (D-MA) scoops up some headlines in Massachusetts by advocating for cheap money:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced a half percent cut to benchmark interest rates on Wednesday — the first cut since March 2020. The move was cheered by Wall Street as a boon for the economy and will help make mortgages, car loans and business loans more affordable.
While a half percent cut is considered large, the Senator from Massachusetts wanted more. Warren, along with two senate colleagues, sent a letter to Powell’s office on Monday ahead of the announcement, advocating for the Fed to cut rates by three-quarters of a percent. [WBUR]
If Senator Warren is trying to backseat drive for Mr Powell, perhaps she should volunteer to join the Fed the next time an opening comes available.
- Rhode Island gets its first Senate race poll since their primaries from University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2.6), and it shows Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) leading challenger Patricia Morgan (R-RI) 51%-33%. That’s not so much a mountain to climb as a walk to the Moon, and I doubt I’ll be mentioning this race again unless the black swan comes by.
A number of polls were ignored, since New Mexico, New York, and others do not appear to be in doubt. Feel offended? Visit FiveThirtyEight yourself.
Stop looking for polls!
