If you’re not sure which way the election will break come November, here’s a couple of graphs to consider. I don’t know why Gallup doesn’t do this as a graphical time series, but I’ve done it for you; go to the link for table format or to retrieve all the data they have available, as I limited the data to last December to August.
It's apparent that the Republicans have suffered a collapse of support not seen by the Democrats, and the jump in Independents tells us where those former Republicans went. But are those folks who now consider themselves Independents still voting Republican?
No, it seems the presence of numerous extremists among Republican candidates, not to mention the fourth-raters who've flooded the primaries, have alienated some more of the Republican moderates, as well as persuading previously Republican-leaning independents to be willing to vote Democratic, at least for this cycle.
I continue to believe the Democrats, with some careful messaging and hard work, can pick up, net, anywhere from two to eight Senate seats. The House, where gerrymandering is a usable tool, may not see much of a Democratic uptick, or may even seen Democratic losses. Ironically, while Democrats would lose political power in Congress, Republicans would lose something far more important in this scenario: the lesson that they are under the control of fourth-raters who literally have no strategy for governance; they seem to believe that a seat won is the goal, not implementing wise governing policies. Names such as Jordan, Gaetz, Greene, Gosar, Gohmert, Boebert, Cawthorn, and so many others should not be considered to be leading lights, but instead leading contenders for the metaphorical trebuchet.
Gerrymandering protects the incompetent, the extremist, the politician in it for the power of the position.
But, to get back to the point of these graphs, it appears the rightward surge of the Republican Party is fueling an opposite reaction of moderate conservatives considering voting Democratic. That Red Wave is threatening to turn Blue.
