They just keep dancin’!
Vice found a recording of Ohio GOP Senate nominee J. D. Vance advocating married couples exhibiting domestic violence stay together, made during a talk at Pacifica Christian High School. This is a test, but not of Vance. It’s a test of his opponent, Rep Tim Ryan (D), and Ryan’s allies, because there’s a lot of nuance going on here. Vance himself grew up in a violent family, and wrote about it in Hillbilly Elegy, so he has first hand knowledge. His response to a request for comment has, I think, some subtly incorrect logic to it – he’s confusing a dependent variable for an independent variable, which alters the character of the article, and the final conclusion. But I do have to respect his first-hand knowledge, although I think the imposition of a one-size-fits-all rule such as his “marriage is sacred and therefore divorce shouldn’t happen” is a basic mistake. But if Ryan or his allies try to make this into a campaign issue, they may end up alienating a significant fraction of the electorate who still believe in the sacredness of the institution of marriage. All it takes is respect for that view, even if you think it has limits. Will the Democrats figure this out? Will Vance have to try to bait them into a trap?- Wisconsin’s embattled Senator Johnson (R), fighting for his political career, has “signaled” support for same-sex marriage, presumably in a bid for some independent votes this November. Then he voted against a Veteran’s health care bill that he had earlier voted for; it had been returned to the Senate for “technical reasons.” Sounds like he got confused, and, as I’ve mentioned before, the Senator appears to be suffering from dementia.
- Alaska’s Juneau Empire: “Add another unusual poll number to U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s history of them, as a survey published Monday states her net job approval rating has increased by 22% since President Joe Biden took office.” Noted Murkowski-hater Donald J. Trump appears to be headed for disappointment this November.
- In Missouri NBC News may have the reason for Greitens fall in the polls: “A super PAC aimed that’s [sic] been attacking former GOP Gov. Eric Greitens is outspending other groups and candidates ahead of next week’s Senate primary in Missouri, and it appears to be driving down Greitens’ standing in the race.” My question: if the winner isn’t Greitens, will the winner be to the left or the right of Greitens? And will he engage in violence if he loses?
- The latest AJC poll for Georgia shows Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) by 3 points. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver has 3% support in the poll, and may split the Republican vote if he persists. A-rated SurveyUSA gives Warnock a commanding 9 point lead in their latest poll. Pundit Erick Erickson still believes in Walker. I remain of the opinion that voting for Walker is a sign of either the ignorance or the political depravity of the Georgia electorate.
- Senator Kelly (D) of Arizona has the formal support of the very small moderate Republican group Republicans for Kelly. Will it be possible to tell if it has any effect on the overall vote? My guess is that the winner of the Republican primary will be so extreme that Kelly will win the general election without too much difficulty, but it’s only a guess.
- Finally, Republican base enthusiasm for a party that seems to be run by a pack of dubious characters, as measured by small dollar donations, may be substantially less than Democratic base enthusiasm for their own candidates. I’ve seen this mentioned in several sources, here’s WaPo. If a good measure, it suggests the Democrats may not be losing control of the House or the Senate in November, errrr, January, oh whatever’s the proper month. I continue to think that seven Republican Senate seats are in danger, Democrats may have one or two in danger. We’ll know more when more primaries are completed and polls conducted after that.
Previous prancing here.
