This was found on an island surrounded by the unholy hybridization of flamingos with alligators.
- The Deseret News has Utah incumbent Senator Mike Lee (R) ahead of challenger and Democrat-endorsed Evan McMullin (I) by about 5 points. While that’s hardly overwhelming, it’s still a hill to climb – but it is climbable. And surprisingly close.
- In Ohio, a poll by Innovation Ohio has Rep Tim Ryan (D) leading lawyer and author J. D. Vance (R) for the to-be open Senate seat currently held by the Republicans. The lead is five points. However, FiveThirtyEight has no listing for Innovation Ohio, so keep that grain of salt handy. This would qualify as at least a minor upset, and probably a major upset, since current seat occupant retiring Senator Portman (R) has won by commanding margins in the past.
- I lost track of the Missouri race, and thus missed the poll in late June from Trafalgar that indicates disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens (R) is basically tied with Vicky Hartzler (R) for the GOP nomination for the to-be open seat of retiring Senator Blunt (R), and Eric Schmitt (R) is in hot pursuit, which is quite a change from a month and a half earlier when Greitens had a 6 to 7 point lead. It’s close enough now that an endorsement from any of the three candidates still stuck in single digits might be enough to push the endorsee into the winner’s circle. No mention of the Democrats, they seem a disorganized lot. Trafalgar gets an A- from FiveThirtyEight.
- In the first Illinois poll for the Senate general election that I could find, Illinois incumbent Senator Duckworth (D) has a nearly 10 point lead over challenger Kathy Salvi (R), who proclaimed herself the only Republican who could defeat Duckworth during the primary. The pollster is Victory Research, which has a rating of only B/C from FiveThirtyEight. Salvi’s challenge is big, but not impossible.
- General sentiment continues to run against Republicans, if this report from Global Strategy Group is to be believed: Supporters of the Republican Party are seen as more prone to violence in pushing their agenda than supporters of the Democratic Party, and those who feel the Republican Party is prone to violence cite January 6th, Trump, and the insurrection at the Capitol. The key? The January 6th insurrection.
- In Washington State Senator Murray (D) has won a second poll, a Crosscut.Elway poll, by 20 points. FiveThirtyEight knows of an Elway Research pollster, and gives them an A/B rating. I do not know if there’s a connection between Crosscut.Elway and Elway Research. While there’s a long ways to go, it appears the Washington Republicans have dug themselves a hole and then started using a credit card.
- I don’t put a lot of credence in “generic ballot” polling, because politics is local, local, local, and quite dependent on the particular candidates’ reputation. But the Emerson College Polling result over the weekend is interesting, not only for it showing Republicans and Democrats virtually tied, when Republicans had earlier had a substantial lead, but also to show the importance of the economy to voters to be decaying (down 7 points to being of primary importance to 51% of those polled), while abortion and crime are tied at a distant #2, and then healthcare, immigration, housing, and Covid-19. Other generic ballot polling has varied wildly over time and pollster, so the essential meaning of this poll isn’t entirely clear, but it does suggest that the economy either isn’t as important as the GOP would like to believe – or voters are happier with the Democrats’ performance than the GOP would have its base believe.
Takeaways? The fried chicken. And Senators Duckworth (D) and Murray (D) seem safe enough, barring a black swan event or incompetent campaigning. Ryan is not safe, but promising, Lee has an uncomfortably small lead, relative to expectations, which may in the future be affected by folks’ perceptions of the former President, and Missouri remains a big question mark.
Perhaps most important, though, is the impression that it’s only just beginning to dawn on the Republican strategists that the January 6th insurrection is a big ol’ anchor around Republicans’ necks. I don’t read right-wing pundits much, as just about all of them are disconnected from reality, appear to be paid propagandists, or at best don’t know how to justify their complaints in a compelling manner. Erick Erickson’s my biggest exposure, and, while he does acknowledge the insurrection happened and he condemns it, he remains convinced, or at least is trying to convince his audience, that the economy is far more important than an attempted insurrection by folks carrying Christian Nationalist, Trump, and Confederacy flags, and no one is paying attention to the Dobbs decision.. He’s been busy celebrating the imminent conservative overwhelming victory, while busily ignoring the actual evidence, with only a couple of exceptions.
But maybe he’s more realistic in his subscriber-only posts and/or his radio show. I dunno, I won’t pay for that.
Earlier updates of dubious morality are here.
