Remember the three 2019 gubernatorial elections? Louisiana’s is a “jungle primary to a runoff,” where the runoff is skipped if anyone wins the jungle primary with more than 50% of the vote. Emerson College Polling is reporting Governor Edwards (D-LA) is not only easily ahead of the two Republicans who appear to be splitting the conservative vote, but doing well enough he might win outright in the primary:
A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%)
If this holds true in the actual primary, then it would indicate a substantial loss of support for Trump, who won the state by 20 points in 2016, and that his endorsement of the two top Republicans is either ineffective, or possibly a strategic error in that it didn’t give clear direction to Trump voters as to who he prefers.
Conclusions are always tentative when proxies are being evaluated, and one must remember Edwards is the incumbent, so none of this is final, but it’s certainly interesting in what it says about Trump support.
