Sometimes you stir the pot and, rather than sinking the paper boat in the cup, a dragon sticks its head out, spouting fire:
Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, said that if Iran manages to take control of the Strait of Hormuz permanently, it would be a “colossal win” for the country.
“It’s a massive strategic win, given that Iran has demonstrated that it can close the strait,” Brew told MS NOW. “It’s a huge financial win.”
Brew added that if Iran gains long-term control of the strait, it would be more powerful than it was before the Trump administration attacked it. Iran’s parliament passed a law to begin charging “tolls” of up to $2 million per ship, which could mean as much as $100 billion in annual revenue — or the equivalent of Iran’s current annual oil export earnings.
“It’s not innocuous,” Brew said, referring to the protocol announced on Thursday. “Iran has passed legislation and is now claiming to be coordinating with Oman in establishing joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.” [MS NOW]
Classic stupid amateurism, and, considered from what we knew before Trump’s War began, we knew some sort of unexpected consequence would emerge.
To be honest, regime change, despite the President’s frenzied claims, has not occurred. If it had, then the change from one American Administration to another could be called regime change. The same theocratic/fascist structure is in place in Iran, but some of the faces have changed and its more savage than before. No regime change.
But Iran is not Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. His successor was one of idiot sons, all of whom are now dead, and the organizing principle of Iraq was I want power, and that’s really about it. Iran’s leaders put together a governmental structure and succession planning that had been well thought out – no argument possible, methinks, because we’re seeing it work in real time.
You have to wonder if Trump and his minions looked at Iraq and came to the consensus that a war with Iran would be just like Iraq, only they’d be smarter and not stick around for the post-war draining of the swamp.
And now analysts think the Iranian leadership is learning, gaining, and are worthy of being judged colossal winners. I understand that Idiot Trump is threatening them with horrific disaster if they don’t stop controlling the Straits of Hormuz. My guess is that nothing truly horrific will come of it.
He tried to bully folks who bullied back and have an advantage over Trump: their existential nightmare is worse than his. He just loses reputation and then dies of old age. The Iranian leadership faces massacre by their own citizens, with their families at risk for being their families. They’re cornered rats, essentially.
Trump is foundering on the rocks of Iran, or so will many pundits claimed. But his incompetence to the job has been obvious from the get-go.
He’s been foundering on the rocks of amateurism.
