Monthly Archives: March 2026

Long-time readers are aware of my fascination, healthy or not, with Professor Turchin & his colleagues’ work in structural demographic theory (SDT). One of the themes of their books on the subject is the struggle of those who are members of elite overproduction, which is a fancy way of saying that the population of the elite classes of a society tends to balloon in relation to the non-elite members, until those who must perform the work are insufficient to keeping the elite in the luxury to which they feel entitled. The struggle encapsulates the conundrum faced by children of the elite who discover they are to be ejected into the lower classes: perhaps they are not inheriting a title of nobility from their parents, or the fortune necessary to be recognized as a member of the elite classes; or whatever defines a member of the elite class in the contextual society.

A not atypical response to an impending downgrade in position is violence. Internecine wars, assassinations, that sort of thing. See Turchin & Nefedov’s SECULAR CYCLES for an authoritative overview. The point is that, for many humans, their position in the social order is so important that accepting a societal demotion, to maybe have to work for a living, is simply not acceptable.

So what brought this on? We’ve been watching The Sounds series recently, and what rocked my world was a scene in Episode 6 in which Tom, an alcoholic who has cheated on his wife and killed someone, is negotiating with his wife in the time-honored way of alcoholics in Western society, to not be booted out of the marriage. It was most painful, and I’m sure social workers and psychologists were shivering in recognition at his behavior, and his wife, a strong-will person herself, confronting the problem of knowing when to trust this person to which she’s been married for quite a while … and when not to.

But what really got my attention was not Tom’s, the alcoholic, arguments concerning trust, but when Tom, who comes from an elite family but, unexpectedly, will not be inheriting the family business, abruptly shouts, I’m not going to be poor! I shan’t reveal more in order to avoid the traditional spoilers accusation, but it made me shiver to realize that, for him, retaining his social position, as signified by wealth, was more important than the trust of his wife. That extra motivation made me wonder if the storytellers are familiar with SDT, because that frantic obsession and focus on wealth reminds me of some members of today’s society.

And it’s not a bad little series, if you’re looking for something to watch.

I receive email from moveon.org and other such organizations requesting signatures on demanding this and demanding that. I used to sign, but no more, which is good as demanding just seems like a poor word choice, although I have no suggested alternative. Getting all het up in a frenzy over petitions doesn’t seem to have much effect on our amateur Administration of incompetence, as it seems motivated by solely by money, and backed by clerics of Senator Goldwater’s horrified description.

What will? This guy, for example:

[John Bartman, a corn and soybean farmer,] criticized the president for gutting the U.S. Agency for International Development, which historically had purchased billions in food aid from American farmers.

“Right now, there’s 33 million people in Sudan who are suffering severe hunger,” he said. “And if those people at USAID were able to take our grain that we have, that billion bushels of wheat that’s just sitting there in our ending stocks right now, and give that flour to overseas, that would make a huge difference. It would give us a leg up and [help us] be able to make some money as a farmer, and we’d be able to have soft power again.”

Bartman added: “We would be the good guys in the world again — and maybe wouldn’t be in Iran right now.” [MS NOW]

Right there, from a farmer, we see opposition to the destruction of USAID by the arguably illicit DOGE, opposition to Trump’s War, advocacy for soft power, which is an approach to international relations involving foreign aid and persuasion, often loathed by the amateur set on the far right, and empathy for people in a country that our crass, obdurately amateur President calls a shithole country, quite in opposition to the best features of Christianity.

This interview is easily accessible by one of the backbones of the President’s support, the rural communities, and you can bet it’s being passed around. It’ll make people think.

Whether or not this will make farmers vote Democratic is an open question, given the blunders of the left; I could see a new political party appealing for their votes. But I think a substantial portion of the rural communities will realize, if they have not already, that the President, and all his loyal minions, have lost contact with the core concerns of the rural communities, much like the Democrats. Did they ever? Or was the rural community deemed a collection of suckers by the far-right extremists? I don’t know.

Where will this go? Hard to say. Those farmers who’ve found prestige in their Republican membership will stick to it, blinded by that prestige, even as their economic well-being begins to fray, and the central motivation of avarice reveals itself through corruption. Gains in prestige both satisfy and generate hunger for greater increases – and, –ahem– surely what worked before will work again.

But some will figure it out and abandon the Republicans.

Doc, you parked the plane in the factory! Again!

The Diamond Wizard (1954; Brit., The Diamond) is a run of the mill crime drama, featuring the theft of new American coinage. Now in Britain, it is laundered through the device of financing the creation of synthetic diamonds using a new process devised by Dr. Miller; the plan is to sell the diamonds as natural for a whole lot more.

Dr. Miller is an innocent inventor, and thus he’s kidnapped and forced to work for the thieves. Miller’s daughter, Marline, happens to work for the police, so when she becomes alarmed, she discovers that her father is suspected of being a criminal himself. Between American Treasury agents who find her attractive and thieves who consider her ineffectual, she becomes a victim herself, held in the abandoned factory where the diamonds are being manufactured.

By large, dangerous machinery.

But such machinery … well, let’s not give the game away. The characters try hard to reach reality, but remain trapped in their 2-D world, and the more nuanced consequences of being a criminal are largely unexplored. There are clever bits, but here I am, a month out on writing a review, and not remembering the plot very well at all. I am thus led to conclude this was unmemorable.

But still a bit of fun.

As an addendum, Wikipedia tells me this movie was filmed in 3-D. This was a surprise to me, but if you have the facilities, it might be worth tracking down a 3-D print of the film.

Two bad guys continue to mouth off at each other:

In his first purported public comments since his appointment, Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the vital channel through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows.

On Truth Social, Trump said keeping Iran from having nuclear weapons is “of far greater interest and importance to me” than the cost of crude.

Iran is also warning of more attacks. [CNN/World]

Much like the Bush II Administration, Trump is hiding behind a lie to justify Trump’s War: No one else is agreeing that Iran has nuclear wars arms. Don’t let his mendacity, no matter how much he raises his voice, mislead you and your fellow citizens into the material and spiritual disaster that is war. That this war is based on lies just makes it worse.

For the goat enthusiast, some more data: the Union Leader of New Hampshire (paywalled; via Maddowblog here) reports a Stunning upset … for a Democrat in a Republican district. Bobbi Boudman (D-NH) has defeated Dale Fincher (R-NH) in the special general election for NH District 7 by four points, which Steve Benen reports went for President Trump by thirteen points.

Ballotpedia is not yet listing results and may be waiting for an official result to be issued. This link should be updated when that happens.

At this juncture, there’s little enough of insight to mention any longer. There have been no changes of seats in the Republican direction, while the Democrats have, by now, quite a full kitty. If I were a Republican up for reelection I’d be very nervous. Some parts of the country are more volatile than others, so it’ll depend on where you live & run.

In general, though, I don’t wonder at the allegiance of Republicans to Trump. Most of them have their prestigious positions because of Trump and his connection to the MAGA slice of the electorate, not because of any connection they personally have forged. I don’t know if they didn’t try to forge one, or tried and failed. But there’s been remarkably few defections in the face of imminent disaster.

Long time readers may recall Kari Lake, a former broadcaster in Arizona, as well as failed Senate and gubernatorial candidate in the same State, and Trump devotee. Her latest political job was as Director of Voice of America where she laid workers off and tried to dismantle the Voice, and, well, her losing streak continues:

Press freedom organizations are celebrating the court decision invalidating Kari Lake’s tenure at Voice of America and nullifying the mass layoffs she ordered last year.

Reporters without Borders’ Executive Director Clayton Weimers, said the Saturday evening ruling “confirms what we knew when we first filed this lawsuit almost one year ago: that Kari Lake and the Trump administration acted unlawfully in gutting Voice of America (VOA). There is still more to unpack in this decision and work to be done to ensure VOA’s journalists get back to work. Beyond the immediate implications of the decision, this case is proof that fighting for press freedom matters.”

Lake, a former local news anchor and failed gubernatorial and Senate candidate, had tried to dismantle Voice of America, the U.S. government-funded international broadcaster created during World War II to provide news to a global audience, particularly to countries with little to no press freedom. Lake left her position as CEO on Nov. 19. [MS NOW]

Why is this important? Principally, it’s the judiciary once again stepping up to the plate and invalidating the President’s actions. Each such action brings the dubious decisions of Judge Cannon, who infamously worked to slow and stall Special Prosecutor Jack Smith’s prosecution of the then-former President, and, separately, several SCOTUS decisions which continue to appear to be politically influenced, into a more stark and condemnatory focus. We can also deduce that Lake continues to make questionable decisions simply by working for Trump.

The judge is Royce Lamberth, a Reagan appointee.

Steve Benen expresses confusion over President Trump’s habit of giving everyone in sight … shoes. The Herald News has the story:

Have you ever imagined what it’d be like to spend a day in the president’s shoes? Well, for Trump allies on Capitol Hill, that aspiration isn’t as far-fetched as one might think.

In fact, a recent report from The Wall Street Journal details that President Trump has been gifting his favorite shoes, the Florsheim Cap Toe Oxfords, en masse to White House advisors, agency leads and seemingly anyone who finds themselves in the Oval Office with the salesman-in-chief (read: leader of the free world).

Welcome to the Hollywood universe that resides in President Trump’s head. I have no idea why he picked inexpensive Florsheim shoes, but it appears that he’s a vision in his head of all his men looking … the same.

In this Colbert video it looked like Trump was wearing the same shoes, too.

Can his signature blue blazer and red tie be far behind? A universe run by Donald Trumps?

This isn’t a joke. Given his pathological narcissism, it’s very possible he’s trying to populate his universe with himself. Psychologists must be planning to write many, many papers on this particular behavior. And, beyond the tie and blazer, what would follow that?

There’s been some reports that President Trump will determine when his goal of the unconditional surrender of Iran has been achieved. In accordance with his pathological narcissism, he feels that he must be in control of this, and for … I hesitate to say good reason, but it’s logical in context.

1. Iran is not likely to unconditionally surrender anytime soon. While the general citizenry may have many members in favor of said surrender, they don’t make the decisions. The government is the dominant social prestige ladder in Iran, bringing many material and psychological advantages to members; and it requires a putative belief in Allah. So long as the leaders decree no surrender, and enough folks agree they speak for the clerics and the divine, Iran’s defenders will fight; and Iran’s military, honed in the Iran-Iraq War, has a reputation and capability worth respecting.
2. If my reader has consumed The Art of War, by Sun Tzu, they may remember this, paraphrased: An aggressor, in order to win, must crush their enemy and achieve all of their goals; a defender must merely survive. So long as Iran can give Trump the finger, he has not won. He must protect his ego, it’s what his psychosis demands, and if that means he must redefine unconditional surrender, he will until he can quickly achieve that definition and remove himself from a situation that threatens to destroy him, even if only psychologically. I think the Iranian government understands this, and thus we see the CNN headlines Iran’s new supreme leader is still nowhere to be seen and Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say. The longer Iran pulls the American nose, the greater Iranian prestige, not so incidentally damaged by the losses of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the earlier loss of General Qasem Soleimanito an American drone strike, once the war is terminated and Iran, perhaps temporarily under American control, gets control back. Trump is perceived as their enemy, and they’ll happily humiliate the bully; it brings them prestige.
3. The selection of the son of the late Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is congruent with the above theme: defy the bully. Trump tried to decree he would select the leader, and he was ignored. He’s reached for the stars and was kneed in the groin by the Iranians. But there’s more going on, I think. I expect the Iranians are eager for a ground invasion, as that’ll give them more and more chances of inflicting defeats and deaths on the Americans. Enough losses and the Iranians will hope Americans will toss Trump out of office; as that would be a healthy move on our part regardless of Iranian desires, they might get their wish. My wish is we should do it before any more American lives are lost.
4. The mining of the Strait of Hormuz also serves as an attack on Trump, as jumps in the price of oil will be blamed on him, and not unfairly.

This war could become a long and painful tragedy. If Trump backs off too quickly, his tender ego will suffer damage, so he won’t leave immediately. But suppose an Iranian drone takes many lives, then Trump might feel it necessary to execute a ground invasion, and we’ll risk being in Iran for years.

This does not look good. MAGA had better run Trump out of the White House or they risk their own severe damage. MAGA pundits had best meditate on that doom.

Remember the tempest in a teacup that leapt onto our screens when President Trump used the bully pulpit to pretend he knows anything about pregnancy and pain-killers? Well, here’s the other end of the controversy:

They found that orders for Tylenol – also known by the generic names acetaminophen and paracetamol – were 10% lower than predicted for pregnant emergency department patients aged 15 to 44. And outpatient prescriptions of leucovorin for children aged 5 to 17 were 71% higher than expected during the same study period, late September to early December.

Researchers observed no similar shifts in comparable medications, suggesting the changes were directly tied to the briefing. [AP]

While there are certainly caveats, in the end it’s one of those incidents in which you have to ask if these people really deserve the label ‘thinking creatures.’

The Iranian government knows how to deal with bullies, perhaps because they’re bullies themselves:

• Iran’s new leader: Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei the country’s next supreme leader, state media reports, following the killing of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. US President Donald Trump previously said Khamenei’s son would be an “unacceptable” selection. The announcement came hours after Israel launched fresh strikes which hit oil storage sites in Tehran. [CNN/Politics]

Bullies are never appeased, they just take more and more. President Trump will no doubt be puzzled by this selection, since he – in his mind, the biggest bully on the block said it could not be so, so it shouldn’t be – doesn’t have a sophisticated understanding of how the world works. He thinks he’s the biggest, so he wins. All those other enemies don’t matter.

But Iran’s government understands that knuckling under will make them dirt under the fingernails of Trump, and that’s unacceptable for a country that’s been more or less united for 1900 years. Not to mention a religious psychosis as big as most of its enemies’, which is the source of the iron in their backbone.

So don’t look for the new Khamenei to roll over and play dead on Trump’s say so. Iran will continue fighting until it’s been reduced to rifles and rocks, and even then former leaders with no future will retreat into inaccessible areas and try to become guerillas. In the process, Trump’s international reputation will degrade and he’ll be known as a buffoon. Well, that’s already common. I need a better thesaurus, maybe.

And Big Law (a name for a collection of law firms that work with the largest of companies), Paramount/CBS, and other institutions who calculated it’d be more profitable to make deals with Trump the Bully than defy them will not learn, not learn until their sources of revenue dry up and the boards in charge of the CEOs fire them for making the biggest mistake of their careers. For some such institutions, such as Paramount/CBS, that may never happen, as boss David Ellison and his father, Larry, have too much money to be fired, and thus that institution may be doomed. But in the area of Big Law, we’ve already seen such discharges occur. Look for more. Don’t invest in those corporations with CEOs that made that egregious error, unless they find a way out of it.

Drama queens in charge of military units. Lovely. Put them on the front lines, eh?

US military commanders have been invoking extremist Christian rhetoric about biblical “end times” to justify involvement in the Iran war to troops, according to complaints made to a watchdog group.

The Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF) says it has received more than 200 complaints from service members across all branches of the armed forces, including the marines, air force and space force.

One complainant, identified as a noncommissioned officer (NCO) in a unit that could be deployed “at any moment to join” operations against Iran, told MRFF in a complaint viewed by the Guardian that their commander had “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ”. [The Guardian]

Yeah, we hear this time after time here in the States because we’re the refuge for religious lunatics. No offense to all the other religious folks. But this sounds like everyone who thinks God talks to them, or who’ve deciphered a mathematical code, or had a vision from demons. Nothing comes of it, and in those rare cases where someone asks if they’ll be returning the donated money and items, the answer is a resounding NO.

Someone should ask them what it would take for them to give up their beliefs. I’d love to hear the answers. Most answers would be rank “NOTHING…”, since that’d be a fall from social position unacceptable to their egos.

President Trump’s need for Hollywood drama is going to be expensive:

Senior Republicans privately expect President Donald Trump’s administration to request tens of billions of dollars for the Middle East conflict and other military needs from Congress in the coming days, with some GOP lawmakers hearing estimates that the Pentagon is spending as much as $2 billion a day on the war.  [Politico]

It’s not just the money, but the hardware expenditures, as interceptor missiles take a while to produce. In fact, President Trump is trying to encourage higher production:

President Trump said major defense contractors have agreed to quadruple the production of “exquisite class” weaponry following a meeting Friday at the White House.

“They have agreed to quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry in that we want to reach, as rapidly as possible, the highest levels of quantity. Expansion began three months prior to the meeting, and Plants and Production of many of these Weapons are already under way,” the president said in a post on Truth Social.

The executives of BAE Systems, Boeing, Honeywell, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon were at the meeting and another huddle was scheduled two months from now. [The Hill]

Although I’m guessing it’s so he can fire off more missiles at the Iranians; he’s not worrying about attacks from other nations. After all, what’s another foreign war or three?

Yes, The Environment Is Degrading Rapidly

True on so many levels, but we’ll stick with the political. Between dismaying jobs reports (“U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%“, and that’s my bold), an Administration entering a terminal phase, a war only thought desirable by fundamentalist evangelicals (Andrew Sullivan, paywall), the frantic clinging to tariffs by a President who has already been rebuffed on the subject by SCOTUS, and now news that President Trump’s erstwhile ally President Putin may be feeding military intelligence to Iran, Republican Senators up for re-election must be feeling the pressure, especially at open campaign stops where irate citizens, possibly jobless and hopeless about the future, with children in the military and facing a war where government officials with names like Hegseth and Trump are careless of the lives of those in the military, and not under the Senate’s control.

Look for tensions on the campaign trail to continue to rise as even safe Republican seats become endangered.

And Then To Particulate

Continuing the cereal, coated in milk to help the gravel go down easily.

• • Much to my shame, I missed the March 3rd primary results in Arkansas. Incumbent Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) won his primary, as did bankrupt farmer Hallie Shoffner (D-AR), both in convincing manner. However, Cotton’s vote count was roughly twice that of Shoffner’s. Unless a poll says different, I expect Cotton to coast to victory.
  • Rep Crockett (D-TX), who lost in the Democratic primary for the Texas Senate seat to James Talarico (D-TX), demonstrates proper behavior:
    

    Crockett called on the party to unite behind Talarico heading into what is expected to be a top race to watch this fall.

    “With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win,” she said. “I’m committed to doing my part and will continue working to elect democrats up and down the ballot.” [NBC News]

  • Emerson College has polls for Georgia. In the Republican primary, Rep Collins is only outpaced by Undecideds, 30%-40%. Maybe it’s too early in the political season, or maybe Republican voters are as unimpressed by the extremists as I. Rep Edwards has a long ways to go at 16%, and retired football coach Derek Dooley’s only at 10%. Meanwhile, the shark playing the accordion in the background is incumbent Senator Ossoff (D), who has everyone beat but has not broken the 50% mark. Not that he has to….
  • Pan Atlantic Research may claim multiple decades of work, but I’ve not heard of them and neither has Wikipedia, which is suspicious. But their results for Maine seem more sensible than other polls; they have Graham Platner (D) in the mix, but not dominating as did polls from other organizations. Unfortunately for Pan Atlantic, those other organizations consist of the outstanding pollster University of New Hampshire, which has Platner with 30+ point leads (see the earlier link to Maine). The thing about future forecasting is you don’t know who’s wrong and who’s right until the label future becomes invalid….
  • Senator Daines (R) of Montana suddenly withdrew from his primary and announced his retirement, in an unusual manner that he has confirmed was planned. He took those actions only minutes before the primary filing period closed, thus denying other politicians of the two major persuasions the opportunity to file for the primary based on the changed circumstances; apparently minor party members and independents can file regardless. Steve Benen has more details here. It appears the front-runner is now the US Attorney for Montana, Kurt Alme (R), and he is endorsed by Trump and state officials such as Governor Gianforte (R), for what it’s worth.
    For me, the real question is whether Daines leaving the race will elevate former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar’s (I) candidacy to viability. He wasn’t on my radar until now, but Montanans comfortable with a Senator Daines (R) may not be comfortable with a sneaky Senator Alme (R), and Bodnar does have statewide exposure; I’m not so sure the Democratic candidates have that. I do not happen to know the positions of either Bodnar (a little digging yielded nothing beyond boilerplate) or Alme, and I look forward to hearing of any polls. I did get this from the Daily Montanan:

    Montana’s 2026 Senate race has been considered safely Republican by analysts, but within hours of Daines’ announcement, at least one analyst moved the senate seat into a “lean Republican,” category.

    I’d go along with that.

That’s it for this bowl of Cap’n Crunch. Is that still a serial, or just a novella?

Gerontocracy:

1. government or control (as of a nation or organization) by people who are old
2. [etc, omitted] [Merriam-Webster]

Incidentally, when I was exploring for definitions, both Future Caucus and Teen Vogue had suspiciously similar wording for their introductory definitions of gerontocracy. I mention this not to imply plagiarism may have occurred, but because I recall an incident during the pandemic when Seattle was seeing a partitioning, temporary as it was, and the right decided to smear someone involved in that incident. When I searched on the fellow’s name, a series of right-wing sites appeared, using identical wording in the way Google displays such sample bites. It was maybe a half dozen sites, maybe more, the only exception being The Epoch Times, which had its own negative take on the person. It being a paywalled site at the time, and maybe now, I didn’t explore that particular article further.

Back to gerontocracy, this could be a coincidence, or perhaps Future Caucus and Teen Vogue are controlled by the same owner, who chooses to save money by minimizing what they pay to their starving writers, or both sites take content from the same source and republish under different names.

In any case, gerontocracy is noted in “The Public Fires Kristi Noem,” Ken Klippenstein:

Maybe that’s why Congress is seeing a record-shattering number of incumbent politicians who are not seeking reelection, while a strikingly high number of gubernatorial races are also up for grabs. The House of Representatives is on track to break a record, with some 32 Republicans and 21 Democrats not seeking re-election. The Senate is in a similar retreat, an effect not only of a tired and distrustful public that is sick of the status quo, but one precipitated by earlier clamoring for the gerontocracy to step away.

I’ve noticed the emergence of Senator Gallego (D-AZ) and candidate Graham Platner (D-ME), both youngsters, along with Dan Osborn (I-NE), who are all not in their seventies, nor even their sixties. They are part of a movement to remove the boomers from power, and the latter two are on the campaign trail, as I mention somewhere in this thread.

I had not heard the news that Governor Polis (D) of Colorado, the home state of corrupt former election official Tina Peters (R), is considering clemency for the felon. Anthony Coley is outraged:

Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold and the bipartisan Colorado County Clerks Association sent a joint letter to the governor in January urging him not to release Peters from prison. Also, the Republican district attorney who prosecuted Peters and the state’s Democratic attorney general oppose clemency

“Ms. Peters’ sentence was not harsh by any reasonable standard,” Matt Crane, a former GOP clerk who now runs the Colorado County Clerks Association, has said. “Granting clemency to an unrepentant convicted criminal who deliberately sought to undermine our democratic system would be deeply concerning and risks further eroding public trust in the institutions Americans rely on for free and fair elections.”

Whenever I feel like I may be having a knee jerk reaction, I like to go over the situation again, arguing against the knee-jerk. This time I don’t see any real holes: appeased bullies simply go back for more; the support is bi-partisan; so what if she’s seventy, folks live longer now and she should have known better, so we can assume she committed the crime  for personal gain.

We cling to principle in the belief that it’ll benefit all of us in the end, and Governor Polis needs to cling with both hands and his feet. Sure, Trump may continue to apply pressure. But each time he does, Polis’ defiance will make salient the antisocial, undesirable behaviors on exhibit by the current President, perhaps hastening the necessary impeachment and conviction this country needs.

Keep it up, Guv’ner.

In case my reader has been out of contact with the world today, sort of like me, there’s news that makes it look like the Trump Administration is beginning to, well, fall apart:

President Donald Trump said Thursday on social media he was firing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and would name Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her.

Trump thanked Noem for her service, saying in his Truth Social post she “has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!)” and that she “will be moving to be Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas, our new Security Initiative in the Western Hemisphere.”

He said Mullin would take over the position March 31. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the Trump administration will work to confirm Mullin “as quickly as possible.” [CNN/Politics]

So many questions, to be sure.

Did Senator Mullin (R-OK) know he was the President’s pick for the open position? Or did this appear on Truth Social and he just had to deal? Did / does he know he can’t be both DHS Secretary and Senator?

But we can more or less guess why he was President Trump’s pick – because he projects toughness. He appears to be a large guy, too. It’s all about Central Casting, isn’t it, and we know it because

The spotlight is now on Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin as the Oklahoma lawmaker is poised to take over the Department of Homeland Security following Kristi Noem’s controversial tenure and firing on Thursday.

Mullin, 48, has no law enforcement experience but has been a staunch supporter of President Donald Trump’s policies on immigration and law enforcement. [ABC News]

The Senator has no applicable experience, but he’s ready to storm into one of the most important law enforcement positions in the country and, well, I hope he runs the agency with discretion and attention to the law, but he’s a Landgrebe nominee and that means both lavish devotion to the President and implies a certain haughty amateurism.

Perhaps Trump considers White House aide Stephen Miller, the anti-immigration voice in the Administration, too short and wimpy for the position. I’m quite serious, too.

According to Ballotpedia, Mullin, is still in the Republican primary for his seat, at least as I write this, and I actually don’t think he’ll drop out. His removal from the Senate is not a critical loss, it just means Thune has a smaller margin, and it may even make certain options easier to if Thune decides to become an independent power. But Mullin can still win his seat and resign from DHS at the end of the current term. But it’s also quite possible he’ll decide to stick with the executive branch. The Oklahoma Senate seat is considered quite safely Republican. I expect the margin this time around won’t be big, but it’ll remain Republican.

Was Noem ready for this? There were rumors that Noem was positioning herself to take the Presidency; I have to assume it’s harder for someone in her new, and quite obscure, position of Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas to try for a coup. But maybe that was only a rumor, as coups can be quite difficult.

Is this the first chunk of many to fall off the Administration? There are many irons in the fire that may blow up in Trump’s face.

• Trump’s War. I’m sure Trump expected it to be over with and tucked away by now. He’s even trying to insert himself into the process of Iran selecting their next leader. But Iran, by which I mean Iran’s government, is still defiant, still firing missiles, and forcing America and its allies to expend missile interceptors in defense, which means our stocks are becoming perilously low. If a story concerning low interceptor stocks gets lose in MAGA-land and weather improves, we could see a MAGA-mob in front of the White House demanding a resignation, a profound humiliation.
• Epstein Files. They are infuriating much of MAGA-land.
• Defense Secretary Hegseth. An incompetent who probably promised Trump a quick victory. Now Trump has casualties, military risk, and political risk.
• The White House Ballroom. Trump’s preoccupation, in the face of war, with his Ballroom is a prime symptom of his disabling dementia. A competent Cabinet would have removed him.
• Commerce Secretary Lutnick. He’s reportedly prominent in the Epstein Files.
• Messaging. Are we at war or just indulging in major combat operations? Trump says the former, his minions claim the latter. Only the Senate can save him, it seems, because the comedians are chortling too much.
• The markets are tumbling. Can Trump afford to completely lose Wall Street?

And so much more; it’s a cataclysmic indictment of amateurism. How much longer before Vance and the Minions act?

My primary computer is residing at a computer repair shop, where I hope it’s reparable. Meanwhile, posting will slow or even stop.

The goats are unhappy, mostly because they don’t like elections. Along with various primaries of March 3rd was a special election to Arkansas’ House of Representative, HD-70. This district went to Harris by 2 points, and was won by Republican Carlton Wing by 2 points, 51%-49%, both in 2024.

Wing has since moved on to another job, and the special election to fill the seat was won by Democrat Alex Holladay, by nearly 15 points. The total number of votes cast was roughly 50% of the 2024 election, which isn’t so bad for a special election.

The trend of seats flipping from Republican to Democrats continues, while I’ve heard none of the other direction. Not all seats flip, of course, but quite a number have flipped. Good luck to Mr. Holladay.

Polls, Polls, Polls

If my reader looks for polls, my source this season is 270 To Win.

Systemically Speaking

As Trump’s War continues, Iran refuses to collapse, casualties tragically add up on both sides, other countries become involved, our shortage of munitions becomes more prominent, and other negative news comes out, those Republican Senators who’ve thrust themselves forward put themselves more and more at risk. That said, there’s not many out there doing so; Moody, Risch, and other names are exceedingly quiet, and can be so because the Senate hasn’t done much under Senator Thune.

But this is definitely a risk because all the Republican Senators are tied, strongly or weakly, to this madman of a President. Fortunately for the Senators, the House is responsible for beginning impeachment proceedings, so they cannot be blamed for the failure to start them. That’s heaped quite messily all over Speaker Johnson (R-LA).

And As Time Passes

Here’s the last time the clock ticked. Funny story there – that last one was written over last weekend, when we changed over to March, but WordPress dated it as February 1. And the same thing happened, oh, two years ago? Four years ago?

• The Maine Senate race becomes more and more interesting as Graham Platner (D-ME) gains prominence – and endorsements:
  

  Sen. Ruben Gallego [(D)] of Arizona — who, like Platner, is a Marine combat veteran — said he is backing Platner because he believes he is more electable than the sitting Democratic governor.

  “I think right now what people need and want is authenticity and a certain level of populism that they’re not going to get from Gov. Mills and they’re certainly not going to get from Collins,” Gallego said. “This is the candidate that can win.” …

  Gallego, who won a Senate seat in the swing state of Arizona in 2024 and is a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, joins democratic socialist Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) in backing the insurgent political newcomer. [WaPo]

  Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has endorsed Governor Mills (D-ME).  I get the feeling the youngsters are beginning to eject the oldsters, nation-wide. The Maine primary is June 9, 2026.

• Senator Gallego (D-AZ) has also endorsed (above link) Rep Angie Craig (D-MN) for the open Senate seat in Minnesota and Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI) for the open Senate seat in Michigan.
• The March 3rd primaries in North Carolina have yielded the expected result in the Senate primary races: former Gov. Cooper (D-NC) and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R-NC) will face off in the general election. However, the numbers have surprised me, with Cooper effectively a unanimous victor with 96% of the Democratic primary vote and 758,743 votes (as of this writing, counting continues); Whatley, while crushing his challengers, managed only 64.6% of the Republican primary vote and 403,053 votes total. In fact, the total number of voters in the Republican primary is less than that for Gov. Cooper.

  Is this significant? It’s a mugs game to attempt forecasting general election results from primary results, but it’s worth a gander. While Republicans can be a bitterly fractious lot in many parts of the country, I’ve noticed that doesn’t seem to hold true in North Carolina. But can they find the necessary dormant voters and persuade them to vote Republican in November? That’s a far more difficult question to answer.

• The March 3rd Senate primaries in Texas were strongly contested as the tea leaves were ambiguous.The Democrats have selected Texas House of Representatives member James Talarico (D-TX), who notably defeated Rep Jasmine Crockett (D-TX)  53.2%-45.5%, 1,103,371 votes to 943,168 (votes are still being counted as of this writing; the balance went to Ahmad Hassan). Call it more than 2 million votes.

  The Republican primary is going to a runoff, as none of the candidates reached the 50% mark; the primary had 1.5 million votes. Those promoted are incumbent Senator Cornyn (R-TX), with 42.5% of the vote, and Texas AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) with 40.8% as of this writing; counting continues. Rep Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is out, as he has only 13% of the vote, but presumably that 13% will select the winner of the primary in the runoff.

  Hunt has yet to endorse Cornyn or Paxton, but that will presumably occur after each of the two contacts him to ask for his endorsement. I don’t know if Hunt is looking for anything. However, this paragraph from his campaign site may be telling:

  Wesley has served Texas’ 38th Congressional District in Congress since 2023 and has been a fearless America First Fighter who was the first in the nation to endorse President Trump.

  My bold.

  Senator Cornyn claims to have voted with President Trump the vast majority of the opportunities (I regret the loss of FiveThirtyEight, which kept track of the voting records of Members of Congress and how they correlated with President Trump during his first term). That’s his claim to being far-right.

  AG Paxton filed the notorious pro-Trump lawsuit Texas v. Pennsylvania, which asserted that Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes were invalid because its voting methods were – allegedly – invalid. The suit was not heard due to lack of standing, with Justice Alito dissenting. That’s Paxton’s claim on the President.

  Given the affinity of President Trump for corrupt individuals, I suspect Rep Hunt will endorse AG Paxton on Trump’s advice, as Paxton appears to be one of the most corrupt politicians in Texas. How will this play with Hunt’s supporters? Well, they didn’t vote for either of the promoted candidates on first chance; will they vote for the corrupt AG on a second try, or the guy who has been around since 2002? Stay home and withhold their vote in protest at the youngster, Hunt, not being promoted?

  Or will they even look at Democrat Talarico?

• The University of North Florida has released a poll indicating incumbent Senator Moody (R-FL) dominating her Democratic challengers.

And that’s it for now. Time for a break. Like, going back to work as a good working dude.

[Reposting due to a date of February 1 being observed. Apologies to those who’ve seen this, which was published Monday.]

But Before We Begin

Yes, the war, which I’ll call Trump’s War, will affect the elections to the Senate scheduled for November, but its effects will depend on the temperament of incumbents’ and challengers’ constituents, current or potential, and how they respond to a President dragging us into a war which is costing the precious lives of Iranians, innocent and not, American service people, the lives of Arabian allies, along with munitions which we may actually need more elsewhere, unlikely as most of think that might be. More thoughts on Trump’s War here.

Those responses will be part of this thread, in bundles, as I happen across them. I’m still a working dude.

Last time we were here

In election news is word of certain Republican groups urging the President to declare an emergency and nationalize the voting apparatus. Are they convinced that the courts would NOT tell them to stick it in their ear? Do they really think that the protests might turn violent, including from heavily armed Republicans, if this pack of extremists starts trying to deprive Americans of voting rights? If they’re so concerned about the November elections that they want to try the tactics of fascist losers, I have an impertinent question: Why don’t they try governing wisely, instead?

Yes, yes, my own blog says it’s a lot harder to do than to say, especially for a Party weighed down with incorrect or inapplicable tenets, obdurate in refusing to admit to failures, and apparently unappreciative of the wisdom of H. L. Mencken. Wise people learn from their mistakes; watching the President fulfill his nickname of The Mendacity Machine in order to cover up his blunders, and then such folks as Rep Chip Roy (R-TX) praise him for it, really brings home the potential of a Party-capsizing ass-whuppin’ next November, even if I think the Democrats should be alarmed as well.

The Senate News Slowdown

• The President sucks the air out of the electoral space. Wondering about the lack of news on this thread? The President’s antics tend to overshadow all else. Indeed, he’s now even resorting to what appears to be an unjustified, and possibly illegally declared, war in order to distract the public from his many failures and transgressions. In my opinion. Someone, and I’m looking at VP Vance now, needs to appropriate the President’s The Apprentice signature line and throw it back in his face: You’re Fired! As I’ve discussed before, though, the first hurdle a Cabinet candidate must clear in the Trump era is that they’re too much of a weepy fourth-rater to actually vote to remove the President under the 25th Amendment. (The second is that they have to look like a Cabinet Secretary, i.e., be straight out of central casting.) Maybe you get a pass, Vance.
• No primaries have taken place. And very few polls.
• Is there too much money in politics?
  

  Nearly $100 million has been spent on campaign advertising across the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries [in Texas], including at least $59 million spent by [incumbent Senator] Cornyn and political action committees supporting him, according to AdImpact. The Republican primary is widely expected to go to a runoff. [MS NOW]

  Uh, yes, there is. I think my eyes are watering.

• Endorse or not to endorse, can I do both? It’s also not clear if President Trump has actually endorsed all three GOP candidates for the Texas Senate seat – or none. I apologize if I had it wrong earlier, but Trump is being ambiguous.
• The enduring mystery of Georgia. The previous Senate races in Georgia featured the Rev Raphael Warnock (D) defeating former NFL and college football star Herschel Walker (R) by less than a point in 2022; and, in 2020, David Ossoff (D) defeating incumbent Senator Perdue (R) by 1.2 points. Now Senator Ossoff is facing his first reelection. Georgia is considered to lean Republican, with Republicans holding the trifecta.Where are the Republican heavy hitters I’m expecting to challenge a Senator considered vulnerable?I’m not forgetting or even dissing the two Republican Representatives in the primary, Mike Collins^[1] and Earl Carter^[2], but they are both so far to the right that they’re unlikely to attract the votes of independents.

  Where’s the popular Governor Kemp (R-GA) in all this mess? He’s term-limited in his current job, so he’d have the time, but he’s turned down the opportunity, and is in fact backing, of all candidates, former football coach Derek Dooley, a man who strikes me as a cipher, a man who thinks he sees this Senate race as an opportunity to pick up another trophy, at least so far, rather than do the serious work of governing. Perhaps Kemp is testing the waters for being a quiet power behind the scenes, rather than taking on the grind of an everyday job like Senator.

  So the ongoing mystery is Where’s the serious Republican candidate tailored to defeat Senator Ossoff? Are the Republicans still caught in the trap of The more extreme, the more qualified? Sure, Collins and Carter hold high elective office, but not state-wide offices, meaning their districts may hold enough far-right voters for them to win; or, a point not made enough, is Would they lose in their districts if Georgia were to switch to ranked-choice voting, a system friendly to moderates? In any case, neither is a proven candidate in a State that has been slowly moving towards the Democrats.

  Is the Georgia GOP going the way of the New Mexico GOP, undisciplined, incompetent, and, even, repellent? Or is Collins or Carter a hidden powerhouse that will appeal to independents?

• A University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll in Maine suggests political newcomer Graham Platner (D-ME) holds a lead of 64%-26% over Governor Mills (D-ME) in the Democratic primary for the Maine Senate seat. When I say this seems unlikely, it also means I am not a resident of Maine, so maybe Mainers are sick and tired of old-age politics. Mills is 78 years old.
• In Massachusetts two University of New Hampshire (UNH) polls (here and here) suggest incumbent Senator Markey (D) has comfortable leads over Rep. Seth Moulton (D) and John Deaton (R).
• For New Mexico, Ballotpedia is now stating
  

  There are no candidates on the ballot in the Republican primary at this time.

  It lists Benjamin Luna as withdrawn or disqualified. Give the Democrats their first November victory.

• Right here in Minnesota I’ve noticed attack ads targeting Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), accusing her of voting for funding ICE, an understandably touchy topic. True? False? Out of proper context? I failed to notice the funder of the ads, so I haven’t really a guess as to whether this is one of her primary competitors, or Republicans trying to manipulate the race, thinking Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, the other credible candidate, might be easier to defeat.
• Primaries for North Carolina and Texas are scheduled for March 3rd.

¹ Rep Collins’ On The Issues summary chart is to the right, and indicates the Representative is very far right. I must say, though, that Rep Collins does look like a Senator (follow the link for his picture), for what that may be worth. To the President? Quite a lot. Will he win the President’s endorsement? Still to be seen.

² Rep Carter’s On The Issues summary chart is to the right, and indicates the Representative is very far right. I regret I cannot say Rep Carter looks like a Senator, and for that reason he may not win the President’s endorsement. Oh, yes, I’m quite serious.

Regarding Trump’s War, it looks like maybe the word has gone out to the GOP members of Congress, as seen here in this transcript of Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan, March 1, 2026:

MARGARET BRENNAN: The president of the United States warned the American public that there could be casualties, American casualties. Does that mean the U.S. is putting boots on the ground?

SENATOR TOM COTTON [(R-AR)]: No, Margaret, the president has been clear that what we should expect to see is an extended air and naval campaign that’s designed not only to continue to set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but, most importantly, to destroy its vast missile arsenal, many more missiles than the United States and Israel have air defenses combined, as well as the missile launchers and its missile manufacturing capability.

… many more missiles than the United States and Israel have air defenses combined …? Really?

Then why wasn’t Israel wiped out last year?

What’s really happening? Are we incompetent and Trump is trying to cover it up? While the Administration is incompetent, the military should be mostly OK, even if key commanders have been fired for a perceived lack of loyalty. Unless purges have been worse than I’ve read.

But the Epstein Files persist, and they really do seem to have Trump scared pissless. Does he think he can ride a war until November and use it to manipulate the public to vote Republican?

The next few days, weeks, even months should be interesting.

So we hit them, they hit us and everyone else they hate, and then Israel’s tangled up with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah joins conflict: Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah said it launched “missiles and a swarm of drones” at an Israeli army base for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It’s the first rocket fire by the group since 2024.

What’s next?

Briefings undercut White House claim: Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff that Iran was not planning to strike US forces in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, undercutting the administration’s claim of an imminent threat from Tehran as a reason to launch strikes, according to sources. [CNN, same link as above]

Oh, my. If this is so, then Trump is no better than President George Bush, et al, circa 2003, and his invasion of Iraq on trumped up – excuse me – claims that President Hussein of Iraq had, and was going to use, weapons of mass destruction (better known as WMDs).

Not that the current House GOP caucus is likely to hold President Trump to the law, but I do want to say that if Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) does not want his name associated with dishonor and an utter failure of morality – and even governance – then he had best consider ordering the House’s Rules Committee to begin an impeachment investigation. When word of such an order reaches President Trump the screaming will be cataclysmic, but quite possibly followed by a flight out of town, and then out of the country, by the man claiming to be President and fixer of everything.

Just sayin’, Mike. Mike?

What else? A simple headline will do:

Oil surges and stock futures tumble after strikes on Iran

Well, yes. That’s no surprise in the wake of gCaptain’s multiple reports of the impact of the exchange of weapons fire on the regions shipping. Here’s an early report in which gCaptain is channeling Bloomberg:

Oil and gas tankers are increasingly avoiding the Hormuz shipping strait that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas after the US and Israel bombed Iran, with a large number of vessels holding outside of the waterway while some already transiting have turned back.

Ships reported hearing a radio broadcast purporting to come from the Iranian navy announcing that transit through the Strait of Hormuz was banned, and while there hasn’t been any official communication from Iran on the status of the waterway, most shipowners are taking a cautious approach. The US earlier issued a warning to shipping in the Middle East that vessels in the region should stay 30 nautical miles away from its military assets.

Delivery delays will boost prices. That will profit those producers who can still trade freely without threat, meaning Russia, the primary export of which is oil, and its President Putin must be a bit frustrated, seeing as they are under both sanctions and attack from Ukraine’s sea-going drones.

And by Belgium??

Insofar as stocks tumbling, of course. Investors love predictability; war is chaos. Some investors will go looking for bargains, but the great majority will simply worry about losing money. And what of the computer algorithms that drive some trading? Wars must be an unusual glitch in their data streams, presenting rare challenges.

But this report may be a bit more surprising, again gCaptain channeling Bloomberg:

The ability of the US, Israel and Gulf Arab states to weather Iran’s retaliatory strikes will depend on how many missile interceptors they have — and stocks are most likely dangerously low after intense combat with the Islamic Republic last year.

Tehran’s main means of offensive operations is long-range attacks with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, all of which it launched after Israeli strikes in June 2025.

Unless you’re a missile producer, or work for such an employer, or work in military logistics, you may not think about the cost of a single missile, offensive or defense, and the time it takes to produce them, which I understand takes more than a year for a single missile; we’re not talking about World War II bombers in factories. And what is the potential usage rate?

Defending against such weapons requires an even bigger number of interceptors — typical military doctrine calls for firing two or three at each incoming target to maximize the chances of hitting it. Stocks of missile interceptors could be in danger of running low within days if the intensity of current Iranian attacks persists, according to a person familiar with the matter.

“Missile interceptors are a big concern, particularly anti-ballistic interceptors,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “We are using these interceptors faster than we can make them.”

But does Iran really have that many missiles? Iran’s not a small nation, with a military they understandably keep well supplied, as the Middle East has a very long history of war.

But they’re also corrupt, sanctioned, and near-broke.

If we suffer a successful strike on a naval asset, then we’ll know that President Trump’s frantic desire to divert the public’s attention from his many scandals and public leadership failures, or what might even be his desire to be seen as leading the nation to a glorious victory a la Hollywood, has instead resulted in the deaths of American service members who were ordered into an undesired war under specious reasons – an illegitimate war for the second time this century by a Republican.

While Russia has its own munitions problems and is unlikely to take advantage of a potentially rash draw down by Trump, China is notably on the sidelines. Their problem have more to do with sudden senior officer inexperience and a President trying to slap down potential coups. Not that I expect anything to happen.

But events could get unexpectedly explosive.

NewScientist (14 February 2026, paywall) reports on the latest ambition of Elon Musk:

In the company’s latest filing on 30 January, and also shared in an update written by CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX said it wants to develop vast orbital data centres in space to power AI. “Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization,” Musk wrote, referring to the Kardashev scale, a method proposed by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in 1964 to measure the technological prowess of a civilisation.

Uh. Seems a trifle overwrought.