If we were to apply the precepts of structural demographic theory (SDT)[1], developed from observations of various agrarian societies, to the current American situation, we’d be looking at 50 to 100 years of warfare, both overt and covert, as the various groups desperately battle to impose their iron vision of government[2] on Americans, as well as climb, or retain their position in, the social order.
Termination would occur if one side was victorious, such as 1979 Iran’s Islamic Revolution, leading to a theocracy in that case; or enough of the leaders either die, naturally or violently, or renounce their common position that compromise is evil. In the former case, the victory could come almost immediately; the latter case is usually many years.
Will Americans take fifty years to be rid of the various leaders, overt and covert, who battle for supremacy? America is no longer the agrarian society which existed until World War I[3]; the technologies we’ve developed since World War I may serve to accelerate our passage through the disintegrative phase and return to the integrative phase of SDT. But these technologies are highly dangerous, as anyone comparing modern personal weaponry to a cavalry saber will understand.
Spectacular violence engendered by the arrogant may be the result.
But compromise is the real goal, no matter how purple the various leaders turn at such a blasphemy, and while we’re not there yet, it may be time to start composing plans for compromise. I propose a plan, a first draft, for the Minneapolis situation.
My first observation, and most important, guiding my thoughts on this, is that disinformation is rife. I’m at the point that I feel anything I hear must be double-checked. Even pictures and videos are suspect; even worse, eyewitness accounts are suspect for reasons fair and foul. Perception is a much more fraught business than most might think.
With that in mind, the first principle is to exclude all known sources of disinformation, including, and most strenuously, President Trump. As just one example, he justified the dispatch of ICE agents en masse to Minneapolis on fallacious claims that Minnesota state government was guilty of permitting massive fraud to occur, that the great majority of Somali immigrants were responsible, and that the streets of Minneapolis were in chaos and ruins.
I live in a first ring suburb of St. Paul, across the Mississippi Rover from Minneapolis; family lives right in Minneapolis. I can say that, prior to the arrival of ICE, there was no ruin, no chaos on the streets of Minneapolis. Our worst problem, which occurred during the summer, has been a rash of ten year old children stealing cars and taking them for joyrides. Not ten year old Somalians, just ten year olds. That’s worth a question or two. Otherwise, street crime was dropping, or so it seemed from the TV news.
Fraud? Yes, there’s been fraud. The ringleaders and many henchmen have been arrested, put on trial, and mostly convicted. The leader, Aimee Bock, is in jail, tearful in that way grifters are tearful; it’s noteworthy that she’s not Somalian. And some of the numbers thrown around by the President struck me as quite silly, such as more than $10 billion in losses, although I have to remember this age has $trillion market caps defining large companies. Insofar as the Somali community goes, they have the usual problems inherent in such communities, but at 80,000 living in Minnesota, it’s absurd to lump them all together as fraudsters. It may be as many as a thousand of them, though I’m thinking that’s grossly over-estimating. Ask Aimee Bock, eh?
In what history may later consider to be the first step of a compromise, Governor Walz (D-MN) has appointed a special investigator for fraud in these programs, although darned if I can find his name[4], and Walz has also dropped his reelection campaign, probably ending his elective political career.
In compromise, each side accepts remission of certain positions, trading off until an acceptable aggregate position is constructed. Acceptable is an interesting word; sometimes it applies to the primary participants, sometimes to other parties, such as, in this case, political independents who are outraged, justifiably or not, by the chaos. Compromise is an art form, in my view.
I was disgusted by Vice President Vance’s patronizing speech he gave while visiting Minnesota earlier this week, as seen below.
I’m thinking of a more egregious speech, which I couldn’t find, but this will do.
He tried for the disappointed parent effect, but, for those who’ve been watching and thinking, he came off as the ignorant and, yes, arrogant asshole who really needs to sit down, shut up, and listen if he’s in earnest about settling national tensions. National tensions which I suspect are going to drown Republican candidates running in States that are not solidly Republican in November.
That said, with the President disqualified from a meaningful role in the construction of a compromise, the VP might be representative of, uh, his side of things. Here’s some proposals:
- Remove all ICE agents from Minnesota, with exceptions below. Chaos erupted when ICE arrived and began unacceptably sloppy, brutal operations. An occasional mistake involving an immigrant or refugee due to administrative errors is understandable; abducting naturalized US citizens based on racial profiles is absolutely unacceptable; abusing children, as reported yesterday, is simply beyond the pale.
- If Minnesota law enforcement requests it, a number, set by Minnesota law enforcement, of ICE agents will be present and available for use. It is undeniable that a number, probably small, of immigrants, legal or otherwise, and aliens are violent and/or involved in the drug trade, and ICE can be helpful in that respect, especially given the current understaffing of Minnesota law enforcement.
- ICE will act only in concert with Minnesota law enforcement. Attempted imposition of Federal control, implied by abrogation of this clause, is illegal, unconstitutional, and certain to cause more chaos.
- Acknowledgement that the protest in Cities Church was wrong, and an apology from those arrested (see link). Sure, pastor David Easterwood may work for ICE as well, and maybe Cities Church doesn’t seem the most Christian of churches, but that doesn’t pardon the intrusion. It used to be that homes and employers were sacrosanct, but now we get doxxing and swatting and protests at the homes of officials we don’t like. Should we smile at a neo-Nazi protest at Temple Israel next? At Catholic protests in a local Baptist church? Down this path lies violence, with bitter death at the end. Stop it with the endless harassment.
- An examination of the fraud in Minnesota government programs. Already underway.
- Remove ICE agent Greg Bovino. He doesn’t seem to have an official rank. He’s already been caught lying about an alleged lack of cooperation by Minnesota law enforcement, allegations thoroughly and effectively refuted by Department of Corrections Commissioner Paul Schnell, as acknowledged by VP Vance. Further, he made a ridiculous comment, in response to accusations concerning the young boy, that ICE was very qualified to take care of the boy. It reminds me of the school teacher who claimed he knew more about parenting, despite not having children of his own, than the parents of the kids he was teaching. He was hooted down. Does Bovino make a habit of kidnapping children? Finally, he seems to have a history of lying, if we’re to believe this Federal judge.
- A re-examination of “sanctuary cities.” We are a nation of Law, not of Man, and certainly not of Feelings. Are sanctuary cities legal, illegal, or just marketing? If they are illegal, then why shouldn’t we repeal such, ah, declarations, and if that leaves citizens unhappy then they should work through their representatives to … have debates. Maybe unhappy citizens need more information, more meditation on the matter, more debate. And, if at the end of all that, they still think the nation would benefit from better laws, then pursue those changes through the usual routes. And be ready to accept that your fellow citizens may disagree and outvote you. Such is democracy. Yes, I know the Left may be outraged at me spitting in their holy water. I’m an independent, and I don’t care. I think a lot of conservatives are outraged at sanctuary cities, and if that’s a violation of the Law, then we need to talk about it and do something.
OK, I’m going to wrap this up here, not because the list is complete, but because I’m tired of typing. I’ve now read someone else is dead in Minneapolis due to ICE gunfire. Early reports are that he was armed, so I’m inclined to think ICE may have been justified, at least partially. Still, this wouldn’t have happened if they hadn’t been maliciously dispatched by President Trump.
Stay warm and stay safe, folks.
1 My understanding is, at best, fragmentary, derived from the books for the lay reader Secular Cycles and War and Peace and War, as well as the first chapter of the more technical Ages of Discord; I have not read the balance of that last, despite the fascinating content, due to a lack of time and hand surgery. Professor Turchin is listed as the author of all three, with co-author Sergey A. Nefedov for Secular Cycles.
2 And reap the rewards, in some cases. Or perhaps all cases; some, such as the medical grifters of the right, are fairly explicit in their expectations of material and social advancement, while others may be more covert.
3 A very short history may serve to contextualize the situation, which I engage in more for my own benefit than my reader’s:
Following the collapse of existential enemy Soviet Union, America entered a short phase of bubbly euphoria as it appeared capitalism reigned supreme; the cherry on top was the development of the Web. This concealed the rents in the fabric of American society, but wouldn’t have been a problem absent the ambitions of both right and left.
But they weren’t absent. As long ago as the 1960s, Senator Goldwater (R-AZ) observed the obdurate ambitious pastors who were invading the Republican Party, and he forecast some rough weather ahead based on the implicit arrogance of thinking the Divine was backing them. As an old agnostic myself, I think there’s arrogance in even believing there IS a divine, given the absence of evidence. And that arrogance is a real problem.
But the left has an intellectual arrogance of its own. Steadfastly ignoring or minimizing the burden of the savagery and failure of the Soviet Union, embracing the softer socialism of Scandinavia, from the early days they purveyed environmentalism, socialized medicine, to modern day theories of gender and sex. Each subject alienates or attracts the middle; but, as I’ve noted many times before, the style of arrogant imposition, lacking respect for liberal democracy and missed by many pundits, makes American independents deeply uneasy, even if they can’t connect that to formal American political theory.
The sad part is that the failure to advance certain issues, such as climate change, due to the arrogance of either side, may destroy civilization. But that’s a topic for another day.
4 And, no, I’m not thinking of First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson, credited with uncovering much of the fraud. He worked for the U.S. Attorney for the District of Minnesota, and abruptly resigned something like two weeks ago, in the same manner as a lot of senior members of US Attorneys office. Perhaps he was asked to be dishonest or abuse his powers. Maybe Walz could hire him.
