The turning of Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of restaurants and other food services to the Kremlin[1], as well as the leader of the Wagner Group, a mercenary band fighting in Ukraine, and, according to Wikipedia, owner of groups accused of interfering in the 2016 and 2018 American elections, on President Vladimir Putin is a grave new step in Russia’s evolution, and not necessarily a welcome step. Prigozhin is unlikely to inspire a popular revolution against the current effective form of government in Russia; instead, he appears to be attempting to establish control over the military facilities in Russian cities:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to punish those behind an “armed uprising” after the head of the Wagner private military group launched an apparent insurrection, claimed control of military facilities in two Russian cities — Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh — and warned that his troops could head for Moscow. [CNN/World]
And, of course, Russia has an immense nuclear arsenal.
Speaking of which, it’s not beyond imagination that Putin, if finding Prigozhin out of the reach of conventional means, decides to resort to nuclear weapons to put down this attempted coup. In that case, everyone in the nuclear chain of command becomes potential coup plotters, as using nuclear weapons on “the motherland” will not sit well with them.
Putin may fall to the classic internal plot.
And, for those convinced that Putin and former American President Trump shared, and continue to share, links, this must be provoking intense speculation as to how Trump’s Russian ties will change, and how that will echo throughout what passes for his business and political empires. And it’s worth wondering if the fall of Putin might affect his view of the generic autocratic head of state, which has been famously positive.
This may mark an inflection point in world history, and not necessarily a positive inflection.
