Peter Olandt is one of the Daily Kos diarists who’ve been covering Putin’s War. This group has been fairly accurate in their prognoses of the Ukrainians and Russians, especially once it became clear that the Russians’ expectations of a one to two week war were so unrealistic as to indicate incompetence. So this off the cuff prediction is really interesting:
There will be no Russian army left in Ukraine by the end of winter. There may be no Russian army left period. Between the mass numbers of Russian soldiers dying from cold, and sudden breakthroughs by Ukraine caused by greater mobility, strategy, equipment, and depleted Russian units, we will finally see the full collapse of the Russian army many of us have been looking for.
I’ve mentioned, once or twice, that China has to be watching this conflict with great interest, as it tells them a lot of things: the military status of their Russian rival, the willingness of the Western powers to stand with countries and territories that may not be essential to Western security, the capability of a fellow autocracy’s military as a lead to their own military’s ability.
And while the obvious target in China’s viewfinder has to be Taiwan, the next target might be, of all countries, Russia. They share a border, over which there has been periodic conflict, and Russia has been considered an influential power, rivaling China’s influence. Both are old, old powers, full of pride and ambition.
So if China has a chance to gain at Russia’s expense, we may see that happen. We’ve seen Russia fruitlessly wave the nuclear dagger about, and China may decide that Russia doesn’t dare use it.
Will anything come of these speculations? Probably not. But if Russia’s entire military, excepting the nuclear arm, is seriously depleted by their Ukrainian adventure, it’s going to be a temptation for China to take some territory they may have been coveting.
Think that sounds nutty? Compare that to Japan maybe putting a military force on the long disputed Kuril Islands. Now that would be nutty.
UPDATE: The protests in China over Covid-19 restrictions, exacerbated with China refusing to use Western vaccines, may act to stop any Chinese aggression – or it may increase the odds of aggression. Why? As a way to distract protesters and silent supporters.
