The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates

What’s out lying in the backyard? You go look, I’m curled up in a chair. Meanwhile …

• The Cortez (D) vs Laxalt (R) contest in Nevada has been one of the closest in the nation. And then along comes the pollster University of Nevada-Reno, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, and they award a 52% to 39% lead to … Senator Cortez. With a margin of error of … it’s not entirely clear.  ± 4 points. A sudden jump from a dead heat to a thirteen point lead? Or is this the Mother of all Outliers? Do they know more about Nevadans than the out-of-state interlopers pollsters? Stay tuned.
• The Florida contest of Senator Rubio (R) vs Rep Demings (D) is another of the hottest contests in the Senate this cycle. But now the University of North Florida, an A/B rated pollster, is giving the Senator a surprising 54%-43% lead, with a margin of error of a largish ± 4.7 points. Notable: “The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF political science professor. “Florida has become a red state; it will likely take an exceptionally weak Republican candidate for Democrats to win statewide — and Rubio is not a weak candidate.” Rubio’s weakness on immigration legislation nearly a decade ago suggests otherwise, and his responses to recent events have been nearly as bad as Georgia candidate Herschel Walker’s. If Demings is blown out, Democrats nation-wide had better take a close look at themselves. Or is this just another outlier poll?
• Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) is either profoundly put-upon by nefarious characters, to borrow my Arts Editor’s phrase, or he doesn’t believe in self-restraint. Why do I say this? Here we are, less than two weeks out on Election Day, and another woman has claimed that Walker pressured her into having an abortion years ago. The timing of the accusation is certainly suspicious, but on the other side of the pivot is Walker’s history of sincere, steadfast mendacity. Simply typing that sentence should convince every Georgia voter to either vote against Walker or stay home; the blot on their honor in the event of an actual vote, not to mention the fortunes of Georgia in the US Senate, are too hideous to contemplate. In the area of polls, A rated Monmouth College is out with their latest poll, giving Senator Warnock (D) a 49% to 44% lead if I do my math properly, with an unusually large margin of error of ± 5 points. Notorious GOP-optimistic pollster Rasmussen Reports, still B rated, has Walker ahead of incumbent Senator Warnock (D) 48% to 43%, with a margin of error of ± 3 points. This is outside the range of most other pollsters’ numbers. We may be experiencing the Night of the Outliers, folks. Anyone tracking Roger Corman’s activities these days?
• Kansas‘ list of resources doesn’t seem to include polling – yes, there was one, see the link – but a recent article on Democratic challenger Mark Holland can be dug up with a minimum of effort. Notable, besides his optimism: “We don’t need to apologize for being Democrats,” Holland told Steve Kraske in an Oct. 11 interview on KCUR’s Up To Date. “We have a better message on health care, a better message on public education, a better message on wages, a better message on guns, a better message on women’s rights.”
• In Pennsylvania’s Senate debate, Dr. Oz’s (R) response to a question concerning how to regulate abortion has fallen with a thud to the floor, or at least so Democrats believe. Oz’s statement? “I don’t want the federal government involved with that at all,” Oz said. “I want women, doctors, local political leaders letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves.”
  Republicans are convinced that Lt Governor Fetterman’s (D) difficulties with audio processing, stemming from his stroke, have convinced swing voters that voting for a snake oil salesman is a better choice than a dedicated public servant. GOP-aligned Insider Advantage follows through by giving Oz a rare lead in their recent survey, 47.5% to 44.8%. Insider Advantage’s B rating is better than SSRS’s C rating, which we saw on the last update giving Fetterman a six point lead. Which is the outlier?
• Alabama still has no polls that I can find, but pastor Will Boyd (D) believes he has a chance against Katie Britt (R) in this conservative state where they use accusations of being ISIS supporters against each other in the primaries. Boyd explains his optimism in this News19 report from last month. Notable: But Boyd, the former college professor lists reasons for his optimism. It starts with voter enthusiasm, he says. He told News 19 that national polling data shows voter enthusiasm is on the side of Democrats. It seems unlikely. But how can we predict if someone stole all our goats there are no polls?
• Hey, finally Illinois gets another poll, this time from Emerson College, which is A- rated. Senator Duckworth’s (D) lead is down to 10 points, 49% to 39%, meaning challenger Salvi (R) still has a hill to climb in this last week and a half or so.
• North Carolina is another hot Senate race, but not outlying here: Marist Polls, A rated, has the race as a dead heat at 44% among registered voters, but a four point lead, 49% to 45%, among those definitely planning to vote, for Rep Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D). Notable, because they say so: Among independents, Beasley receives 40% to 39% for Budd. A notable 17% are undecided. A 31-point gender gap exists, with a majority of men (53%) favoring Budd and a majority of women (51%) favoring Beasley.

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