Unbelievable stamina in these polka dancers, I gotta say. Oh, we’re talking political races? Not nearly as much fun.
- The next televised January 6th hearing is scheduled for today. There’ll be more than a few candidates wondering if the news will be damaging to them – or their opponents.
Republicans are tipping their hand that, if they win control of the House, they plan to blow up the government if President Biden doesn’t signoff on their legislation, and this may swing more votes to the Democrats. They must remind voters of the costs to them of a non-functional government. While this is more House than Senate focused, it helps bring into high relief the extreme methods that extremists, given partial power, may employ to achieve their ill-considered goals. Like, say, depriving Ukraine of support in their existential war with Russia.- Georgia, the most popular State in the Union, features a Quinnipiac University Poll, A- rated, showing Senator Warnock (D) still leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), and by a hefty 52% – 45% gap, with what appears to be a ± 2.9 point margin of error. On the other hand, the most recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative poll gives the Senator only a 46% – 43% lead, within the margin of error of ± 3.1 points. Apropos nothing in particular, if you take Erick Erickson’s denigrative comments concerning the Senator seriously, then the Georgia race may be even more broken than the Pennsylvania race, as Walker’s mendacity and gibberish is surely unworthy of a vote, while Erickson insists on believing that abortion is baby-killing, and therefore Warnock is a fake Christian. Sigh.
- According to Politico, Senator Lee (R) of Utah has asked for the endorsement of fellow Utah Senator Mitt Romney (R), which seems a bit pathetic. He must be seeing his close ally, the former President, going down in flames, and is worried he’ll get caught by his flight scarf as he tries to jump out the cargo hatch of the Trump Airliner. Rumor has it that Romney turned him down, which should be no surprise, given the mutual antipathy of Romney and the former President. Close allies need not apply?
- I understand Senator Kelly (D) and challenger Blake Masters (R) of Arizona recently had a debate. It must have gone poorly for Masters, because OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, now gives Kelly a shockingly large 46% – 33% lead, and Libertarian (that’d be ‘L’) Marc Victor (L) gains a huge 15% of the vote. I confess to not seeing the debate, of course, so I can only guess that conservative independents, perhaps horrified at Masters’ performance, now favor Victor. Still, like good science, I wait confirmation by independent pollsters. I must say, though, that, in November, if Victor were to manage a second place finish, leaving Masters in third, the schadenfreude cast towards the former President and his minion, Peter Thiel, might overwhelm the magnetic bands protecting the Earth from infernal cosmic rays, killing all of us. But it’d be worth it.
- The first poll of the California Senate race is in, and unsurprisingly SurveyUSA, A rated, gives Senator Padilla (D), appointed to fill VP Harris’ seat when she resigned to join the Executive Branch, a 22 point lead over challenger Mark Meuser (R), 56% – 34%. Not only does Meuser not have much time to erase a tremendous deficit, his opponent is past the 50% mark. He’ll have to change a lot of minds and get all the undecideds. Seems unlikely. Incidentally, this race and poll covers both the special election, for the term lasting until January 3rd, 2023, and the general election, for the term starting January 3rd. A comparison to Harris’ 2016 election would be apples and oranges, as Harris beat another Democrat in the general election.
- Louisiana’s first poll is also in, conducted by A- rated Public Policy Polling, and gives Senator Kennedy (R) 53% of the vote, while in second place is Luke Mixon (D) with 16%. This result, if repeated in November, would permit Senator Kennedy to avoid a runoff, as this is a jungle primary state. Impressive? Kennedy won with slightly more than 60% in 2016, so he’s not improved on previous performance – but unlikely to lose this time around, either. Just to force a runoff, Mixon would have to persuade 4% of the Kennedy portion of the electorate to change their minds, or at least stay home.
- Nevada’s Senator Cortez Masto (D) may be back in the lead, according to B+ rated Suffolk University, 45.6% to 43.6%, ahead of challenger Adam Laxalt (R). Call it a dead heat, maybe even a dry heat. It’s Nevada, after all. But if the next poll, if there is one, shows Masto’s lead growing, it’ll suggest she’s connected to the Hispanic community successfully. That’s an utter necessity for her.
- Remember Democratic-aligned pollster Center Street PAC giving Rep Tim Ryan (D) an improbably large eleven point lead in Ohio? B+ rated Cygnal just gave his opponent, J. D. Vance (R), a two point lead of 46% – 44%. Our signal has improbable amounts of static. Ahem. That was inadvertent, I assure you. Anyways, there is a catch here, much like with Center Street PAC: Cygnal is characterized as a GOP polling firm, by a web site named American Greatness. I suspect the real answer lies somewhere near the middle of that range.
- The latest Sooner Poll, C+ rated, shows Senator Lankford’s (R) lead in Oklahoma over Madison Horn (D) has shrunk to 52% – 40%. In the prior poll, Horn’s portion of the poll was only 35%, while Lankford’s was still 52%, so that’s a 5 point gain, leaving Horn still with quite a mountain to climb. Or will Oklahoma voters be negatively impressed by Lankford’s plan to strip away drug price benefits that were just passed? I think a 12 point lead, including 2 that have to be convinced to leave Lankford, is too hard to do in three weeks or less, but the game isn’t over just yet.
- The Sooner Poll also covered the Senate special election contest in Oklahoma between Rep Mullin (R) and former Rep Kendra Horn (D), and Mullin’s lead has shrunk from 12 points to 9 points, 51-42. Mullin’s number shrank by a point, which is not adequate – five would be better. Can the former Representative pull the upset? I doubt it, I doubt it strongly. But, again, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility.
Here’s the smoking hole in the Earth from the last time I did this. Sorry ’bout that.
