Rumors of dragons abound, chasing maidens and gophers about. Quite pestilent. In other news, their prey keep running for office.
- Politico has an article on the potentially defective strategy employed by national Democratic organizations insofar as advertising goes for the Senate race in North Carolina.
- Emerson College gives Senator Murray (D) a 51% – 42% lead over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington’s Senate seat race, which are numbers similar to other recent polls. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points.
- In Arizona a CBS News/YouGov Poll shows Senator Kelly (D) leading challenger Blake Masters (R) 51% – 48%, with a margin of error ± 3.8 points. This is a smaller margin that most other recent numbers. YouGov is rated B+.
- A Mason/Dixon Poll has Senator Rubio (R) of Florida leading challenger Rep Demings (D), 47% – 41%. Mason/Dixon is A- rated, so this must be of strong concern for Demings.
- In case you were wondering, North Dakota, Oregon, Hawaii, Louisiana, Idaho, and Kentucky remain unpolled with regard to their Senate races, at least that I can find. Bah.
- There is an overview of Oregon candidates for Senate available, though. I kinda liked the truck driver; the Green Party candidate seemed naive.
- Trafalgar continues to go against the grain by giving Senator Hassan (D) a slim 3 point lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 48.2% to 45.0%, in New Hampshire. Other pollsters are awarding larger gaps, and thus more credit to New Hampshire voters.
- In Ohio, unknown and perhaps suspect Center Street PAC gives Rep Ryan (D) a shocking 49% to 38% lead among “likely voters.” An 11 point lead in the Ohio race is out of line with other pollsters, some of which have shown Vance with a lead. Is Center Street PAC’s methodology flawed, or do they know something that escapes the other pollsters?
- Politico analyzes House special elections and comes up with this: The race in New York’s 19th District wasn’t unique. A POLITICO analysis of turnout data before and after Roe v. Wade was struck down in June shows that voters in rural counties were less motivated to cast ballots than those in more Democratic-leaning suburbs and cities after the Supreme Court decision. Though special elections are not a crystal ball, that could spell potential trouble for the GOP if the trend continues to the midterms in November, because rural voters, who overwhelmingly supported former President Donald Trump, are a key constituency for Republican candidates. As ever, though, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And it raises an important question: why is their turnout lower? Have the rural women, realizing that all forms of abortion, and possibly even medical birth control, are suddenly endangered, but unable to persuade themselves to vote Democrat, simply staying home? One would think that, having “won” the stripping of Constitutional protection of abortion rights via Dobbs, they’d realize now they need to take a second step.
- SDSU (South Dakota State University) Poll, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, gives incumbent Senator Thune (R) a 51% to 31% lead over challenger Brian Bengs (D) in South Dakota. That’s overwhelming and leaves only the shouting, no doubt by former President Trump, who had vowed to have Thune primaried and out of politics, so this’ll be another failure for Trump, even if he endorses Bengs. Not impossible with the Trump Lump of Hatred, but his endorsement power isn’t what he thinks it might be. The only surprise in the poll is that Gov Kristi Noem (R), thought to have Presidential ambitions and be more popular than Thune, is actually in a close race, leading 45 to 42 over challenger Jamie Smith (D). That’s within the margin of error. It’s an idle question, as I doubt Noem’s performance will impact Thune vs Bengs, but did Noem’s poor decisions vis a vis Covid impact this election?
- Peter Welch (D), vying for the open Vermont Senate seat, leads competitor Gerald Malloy (R) by an astonishing 62% – 28% margin, according to the UNH Survey Center, which is rated B-. That’s an abyss in politics, and more fingers than I currently possess. For comparison, the only other poll I’ve found for the Vermont Senate race is by Trafalgar, and has Welch also leading the relatively moderate Malloy, but by less than 8 points. This is a bit crazy.
- This is neither final nor of direct effect for the November elections, but Senator Sasse (R-NE), a former Midlands University president, has reportedly been offered the same job at the University of Florida, and has accepted. There are still a few steps to be taken by the University of Florida. Assuming all goes well, Sasse would resign his seat by the end of the year. Does this have immediate meaning? No. His seat will be filled by appointment by a Republican governor, Pete Ricketts, and the in-fighting in Republican ranks may be quite entertaining if Ricketts is not wisely expeditious. But, eventually, a special election will need to take place, and that will give Nebraska Democrats a chance to make some noise, inspired by Kansas Democrats.
The dead snapdragon news is here. Dragons snapping their fingers, it’s quite a sight, but they’re so competitive that they just can’t get the synchrony right.
