So much blah. You’d think we’d run out. Here, you can have some of mine.
- In the ever-popular Arizona race, Suffolk University gives incumbent Senator Kelly (D) a 49.0% to 42.2% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). Suffolk is rated B+. Kelly’s lead has been all over the map, but this seems like a solid, middle of the road number. Meanwhile, in a bit of an echo, A rated Marist Poll suggests Senator Kelly (D) is leading 51% – 41% challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) signals that Masters is unsalvageable may prove correct, but I would like to see Kelly with a fifteen point lead with less than a month left. Notable remark: Among independents, Kelly (51%) receives majority support and leads Masters (34%) by double digits. A 19-point gender gap also exists. While a majority of women (55%) support Kelly, men divide (47% for Kelly to 46% for Masters). These are the remarks that I’d expect to doom Masters.
- But Pennsylvania could be even more ever-popular. Or was it more broken? Anyways, A rated Marist Poll gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 51% – 41% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R). While it’s disappointing that so many Pennsylvanians think the TV celebrity with a long history of promoting snake oil deserves a position in the Senate, at least the number sounds right. Notable other finding: When thinking about midterm elections, 40% of Pennsylvania adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind. Preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%) follow. Which speaks to my observation that democracy is like sex: if you’re getting some, it’s not at the forefront of your mind. If you’re not getting it, it’s the only thing on your mind. On the other hand, A rated Fox News‘ latest Pennsylvania poll for the Senate race shows Lt Governor Fetterman (D) leading Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) 45%-41%, a statistical dead heat. Which leads to the inevitable question: Why the difference between two top ranked pollsters? I suspect the thumb on the scales at Fox News for conservatives is stronger than that at Marist. It is, after all, Fox News, although A rated is A rated. We’ll find out whose adjustments are more accurate in November. B rated InsiderAdvantage has a similar result, 44.8% to 41.7%, again within the margin of error.
- Senator Lankford (R) of Oklahoma has received former President Trump’s endorsement. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Probably good for Lankford at the moment, but by the time Election Day has rolled around, it could be very, very bad. Nyah, who am I kidding? He’s an incumbent conservative in a highly conservative state. So far as I know there’s no blemish on his record; he seems to be a back-bencher.
- A rated Siena College gives Rep Ryan (D) a 46% – 43% lead over J. D. Vance (R) in Ohio with a margin of error of ±4.4 points. This state has become one of the hottest Senate battlegrounds, which suggests to me that the Ohio’s natural conservatives are confronting the extremist conservative views embodied in Vance, principally the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the proposal of a national abortion ban, and an opposition to divorce, and are beginning to have doubts about them. If Ryan can avoid a faux pas, he may snatch a victory here and make the Democrats two-for-two in Ohio Senators.
- In Kansas, Governor Kelly (D) has picked up another endorsement from a Republican, in this case former Governor Mike Hayden (R-KS). So? So, if Hayden is widely respected in the state, this may compel some Kansans to re-examine their views on the Senate race of incumbent Jerry Moran (R) and Mark Holland (D) and, perhaps, change their minds. Holland has a long ways to go, and must grasp after every bit. But I don’t know enough about Hayden’s reputation in the state to guess if he’s influential or not.
- Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut continues to sport a large lead, this time 53% to 40%, over challenger Leora Levy (R), in a Hearst/WFSB poll. Notable: Levy, a Republican National Committee member and long-time party fundraiser, was not recognized by 36% of likely voters and 21% had no opinion of her. Among those who did, 18% were favorable and 23% unfavorable. Apparently she’s having trouble getting her message out, or she’s not campaigning just yet. But it does suggest some fallow ground to till.
- Polls are surprisingly scarce in Illinois, and my DuckDuckGo searches keep showing me a link to how Senator Duckworth (D) has a lead but has “soft” support. Maybe that’ll disappear with the A- rated Emerson College Polling result of a 19 point lead for Duckworth, 50% – 31%, over challenger and “I’m the only Republican who can defeat Tammy Duckworth in the fall!” claimant Kathy Salvi (R), which is a highly unfortunate echo of the former President and current endorser. As this is a 9 point fall for Salvi from the only other poll, she’s definitely moving the wrong way very quickly. Notable: President Joe Biden has a 49% job approval among Illinois voters, 44% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Important? I think so. Duckworth’s 2016 victory margin? Roughly 15 points, so her current lead is not a surprise.
- Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to have an almost-comfortable lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 49.6% – 41.2%, according to B+ rated Suffolk University. A little higher and I’d be willing to say that Hassan seems assured of winning. But what are New Hampshire Republican voters thinking when they nominated Bolduc, and then select him in the poll? Reminds me of the time my conservative Uncle Bill, up for a visit from Illinois, asked me why the hell that “dingbat” notorious Minnesota Rep Michelle Bachmann (R) kept getting reelected. I had to say I had no idea.
- A- rated Public Policy Polling gives Senator Murray (D) a 52% – 40% lead over challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington, suggesting Republican hopes of flipping this seat are in tatters.
- B/C rated Fabrizio/Anzalone (aka FabrizioWard + Impact Research aka ALG Research – so confusing), for AARP Wisconsin, is giving Senator Johnson (R) a 51% – 46% over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) in Wisconsin. with a ±4.4 point margin of error. Notable: Both [candidates] are viewed unfavorably by 50% of voters, with Johnson’s favorable rating (48%) a bit higher than Barnes’ (43%). Johnson’s disrespectful treatment of voters should turn off citizens; I don’t know why folks don’t like Barnes, but I don’t live there. Then again, A- rated Public Policy Polling has this race tied at 47%.
That bag of old, tepid coffee grounds may be found here.
