We were just plowing the road and this popped up. Honest!
- Madison Horn (D) has secured the Democratic nomination for the Oklahoma Senate seat and will be facing incumbent Senator Lankford (R) in the regularly scheduled Senate contest. My apologies for implying Horn had already won the nomination in the above link, which was false; she actually ended up in what appears to have been an acerbic runoff. Don’t confuse this with the contest to fill the retiring Senator Inhofe’s (R-OK) seat, held at the same time, with Rep Markwayne Mullin (R) vs former Rep Kendra Horn (D). And Madison Horn’s chances? Low, but not zero. Throw us a
bonepoll! - Dueling polls in Pennsylvania: A rated Emerson College Polling gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a four point lead over rival Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), 48% – 44%, which is well below the margin most other polls have suggested, and also clashes with The New York Times report that the NRSC has cut bait on the Pennsylvania race. Meanwhile, B/C-rated Franklin and Marshall College Polling has given the Lt. Gov. a nine point lead, 45%-36%,, more in line with other polls. What does it mean? Possibly ideological groups of voters are refusing to answer pollsters, or are answering dishonestly. This has been suggested by Erick Erickson as a reason to distrust polling. And the polls did get the recent New York District 19 special election wrong – but the Democrats won when the Republicans were favored. It’s all still unsettling, though.
- In Missouri Eric Schmitt (R) has an eleven point lead, 49%-38%, over Trudy Valentine (D) according to a poll by Saint Louis University and YouGov. Neither joint-conductor of the poll seems known to FiveThirtyEight, so it’s hard to say how serious this poll should be taken, but Missouri is considered very conservative these days. Valentine has quite a hill to climb, but that was a given going in. The last time a Democrat won a Missouri Senate seat, though, was due to a foot in a pothole having to do with abortion. Will Schmitt follow his predecessor? Will Valentine try to bait him into such a mistake? Stay tuned.
- The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) is canceling nearly $10 million in Arizona and Alaska ad reservations. This must raise further questions, but exactly their nature is not clear. Why? SLF is controlled by Senator McConnell (R-KY), who may be considered the strongest of the traditional Republicans still in a powerful position, what with the apparent failure of Rep Liz Cheney (R-WY) to gain the nomination of the Wyoming Republicans to her seat. The Arizona nominee is the Trump-endorsee Blake Masters, who has little else beyond that endorsement but whatever financial resources of billionaire Peter Thiel is willing to give him. Trump’s dislike of McConnell may be moving into legendary territory at this point, while I’m not sure about Thiel. We could be seeing an effort by McConnell to drain resources and, eventually, prestige from Trump by withdrawing financial support from a candidate associated with Trump who was doomed from the get-go. And the official explanation? “The McConnell-backed super PAC’s strategic change is in part a reaction to its massive $28 million commitment in Ohio, where GOP nominee J.D. Vance is facing a strong challenge from Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).” Yes, it would be a major blow to Republican prestige to have not just one, but two, Democratic Senators from the supposedly reddish Ohio. Heck, those voters might learn that Democratic Senators are better than Republicans! McConnell is a tactician, but not a strategist; Trump is just a bum who got lucky once. Their mutual dislike and antagonistic maneuvering could lead to a smoking pile of rubble in the Republican camp come November.
- Yes, Alaska was also mentioned, above. I’ll go with the common wisdom on this one: incumbent Murkowski, McConnell’s endorsee, appears to be easily beating Trump endorsee and extremist Tshibaka, as well as the other two candidates in this ranked choice voting (RCV)-based race, so there’s little point in sending her money. RCV is biased towards moderates, and that’s Murkowski to a T.
Previous snert here.
