You’d think they’d tire of the sausage-maker of news.
- Progressives would like to believe the Florida matchup between Senator Rubio (R) and Rep Demings (D) is now even, but both cited poll sources are strongly progressive, so the grain of salt is large.
- Attempts to weaponize the mysterious Republican urge to not cap insulin prices for privately insured individuals may be alluring, but a strong message shouldn’t try to communicate a complicated thought.
- In Connecticut, incumbent Senator Richard Blumenthal (D) now knows his Republican opponent. Leora Levy is a Trump endorsee and won yesterday’s primary by 10 points. However, her political experience is, as one might expect of a Trump-endorsee in a blue state, extremely limited. Will a far-right extremist appeal to Connecticut independent voters? Back in May, Emerson College Polling, rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, gave Blumenthal a 16 point lead over Levy – but that was months and months ago. Time for another poll to see if intervening events have had an effect on Connecticut voters.
- In Vermont, Democratic Rep. Peter Welch won the Democratic nod to replace retiring Senator Leahy (D), winning more votes in his primary run than all the Republicans running in the Republican primary put together. Welch’s Republican opponent will be the inexperienced Army veteran Gerald Malloy, who only won with a plurality. I want a poll, but I expect Welch to cruise to victory in this blue stronghold.
- In Wisconsin, Tuesday’s primary yielded the expected Senate result: incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) vs Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D).
- Arizona’s Senate race now has its first poll since its primary last week, and it shows incumbent Senator Kelly (D) with a shocking 14 point lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters. The pollster is Center Street PAC, a new pollster, so it’s hard to assess whether or not they are credible, even as I’ve run across them repeatedly for this year’s races. Arizona is known to be tracking more to the left, at least since the passing of Senator McCain (R) in 2018, but a jump like this on general principle is unlikely. I suspect that Masters and his backers, former President Trump and Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, all known extremists, are personally responsible for this poor polling result. I look forward to a poll from a known and A-rated quantity, such as Fox News or SurveyUSA, on this race, and for now cannot consign this race to be safe for either party. But it may turn out that Senator Kelly owes Masters’ two backers a Thank You! note or two.
- While the Republican hysteria over the Mar-a-Lago FBI raid has a number of factors, for Senate races there has to be some highly credible worries that the former President will act like a black hole in terms of potential damage to the empty shell of high morality Republicans like to project, as well as the very real and tangible damage that may occur for all Senatorial candidates who are perceived as tied, or allied to, the former President and his agenda, fragmentary as it is. Indeed, for one or two of them, this event may be the incident that pushes them into political oblivion; contrariwise, for any Democratic Senators up for reelection that were in trouble, few as they seem to be, this may be the lifeline that they climb to safety.
- The boomerang issue of the election season? Republicans love to portray themselves as law & order types, but, ya know, tax law is law, too. So why are the Republicans outraged at the idea of increasing funding for the Internal Revenue Service? This is the question that can bother quite a few voters, if it’s presented properly – and I’m sure the Democrats will so present it. Are Republicans trying to protect their patrons, as well as themselves, from tax investigations? They’re trying to stir up the ol’ fear thing, but the IRS has already stated that anyone making less than $400,000 will not have an increased chance of investigation.
The relentless flood’s predecessors are here. Your fellow audience members are below.
