Since the last update …
- Wisconsin Senator Johnson (R) was apparently involved in the January 6th insurrection in that he was asked to deliver two slates of fake electors to VP Mike Pence (R) during the ceremonial count. A Pence aide told Johnson’s aide to not make the delivery. When asked about this on Wednesday, Johnson pretended he was on his phone. How this will affect the general election remains to be seen.
- Also in Wisconsin, the previously mentioned large number of GOP challengers to Senator Johnson in the primary have shrunk to one, Doug Schroeder. Some test polling by Marquette University indicates Johnson is down by only modest amounts to the most likely winners of the Democratic primary.
- In Missouri, candidate and disgraced former governor Eric Greitens’ lead in the Republican Senate primary has the Republican leadership thoroughly spooked, to the extent that they’re trying to sabotage it. Which is not unprecedented, I feel sure. I think the part the Republican leadership is missing is that someday soon, due to the toxic team culture they’ve long engendered, they’ll be replaced by Greitens lookalikes.
- Congress has managed to pass a modest gun bill. Its significance for the Senate elections? Now Republicans cannot be credibly accused of ignoring the deaths of children in favor of their ideology, or so they think. It’s important to note that of the fifteen Republican Senators who voted for the bill, only two, Young of Indiana and Murkowski of Alaska, are up for reelection, and of these two, only Murkowski is running a real risk. Four of the thirteen remaining Senators are retiring at the end of this Congress, which I believe is all the Republicans who are retiring, and so they’re not endangering their careers. The remaining nine face, at worst, a delayed reaction in two+ or four+ years, unless the extreme step of a recall is orchestrated by the far-right gun rights absolutists. Those Republicans who voted NO and are up for reelection will face uncomfortable questions over the matter, as will Young and Murkowski over their YES votes, and the importance of that will vary from State to State.
- With regards to those Republicans voting YES on the gun bill, it may be worth tracking their political donations over the next few years to see if there’s any impact.
- Roe v Wade was overturned. While I haven’t, and won’t, read the opinion, because I’m tired of being irritated with Alito’s broken logic from last time, I will note that conservatives are trying to calm the waters. I don’t know if it’s working, but after reading Erickson’s piece (partial – I won’t listen to him) and O. Carter Snead’s forced, shallow piece, I doubt many pro-choicers will be convinced. But it may have quite some impact on some close Senate races if non-political independents who normally don’t vote are so infuriated that they turn out and vote. This may or may not show up in polling, and it may simply not occur. But there is potential.
