Dumped On His Ass

Long-time readers will recall that I’ve chewed on Aussie Prime Minister Scott Morrison (Liberal Party) for his general reliance on God over science and his admiration for former President Trump.

Well, now it’s former Prime Minister Morrison.

In this parliamentary democracy, the Liberal Party lost enough seats to the Labor Party and a host of independents that Morrison is out as PM, and those independents are the story of the election:

Morrison not only lost seats to Labor but also lost a swath of seats to a group of female independents who adopted the color teal — a blend of Liberal blue (to signal they were economically conservative) and green (to signal they were progressives on climate change and the status of women.) The “teal independents” won seats in wealthy parts of Sydney and Melbourne that had long voted Liberal — including that of Morrison’s deputy, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. [WaPo]

2021 Australian fires. Source: YCNews.

That independents concerned about climate change won in the heart of Liberal-land, the wealthy parts of Sydney and Melbourne, signals that the threat of climate change to human civilization is beginning to penetrate all the level of Australian society.

And while the obvious question is How far is the United States’ Republican elites behind the Australians?, a more interesting question is whether or not the United States, out of frustration at the elites of both parties, forms one or more new parties that return to an embrace of science and rationality while discarding rigid, even alien, ideologies and theologies.

It’s a tall mountain to climb, but I’m beginning to wonder, given the problems the Democrats keep inflicting on themselves in the face of wonderful political opportunity, if we may see that hypothetical party transition to reality. The Republican problems are increasingly becoming self-evident, especially if you, like I am, are in the process of political analysis of the Senate races this year. Refugees from both parties could join this third party, and it could become a mover and shaker.

If it’s in sync with American independents.

Belated Movie Reviews

Ready to take on Ebirah, eh?

Ebirah, Horror of the Deep (1966)? What can it be? Why don’t we get to see Ebirah in the deep, but only at the surface? Does it keep a messy domicile? Are there human bones – shish kebabbed, to judge from Ebirah’s habits on the surface – scattered about?

And who are these classic Japanese villains running around on the island? They’ve kidnapped an indigenous tribe from another island, or at least some of them, and conveyed them to their island to make … Ebirah-repellent?

Maybe go to a different island, instead, and live in peace there? Or does Ebirah have a grudge against the bad guys?

And then there’s this pack of rescuers – not of the tribe, mind you, but from modern-day Japan, looking for the brother of one of them. Another is a lock breaker and the original thief of the boat, from whom the others thieved the boat. Our morals need a boost.

And then there’s guest star Godzilla, clomping his/her/its way through the landscape, aping for the camera, as it were. OK, it was supposed to be King Kong, but Godzilla had to step in at the last moment while King Kong attended to his mistress. Or financial matters. The record’s a bit cloudy on the matter.

And, just for fun, there’s yet another guest star. Ebirah’s outnumbered, but, see, it has this big ol’ claw. Yeah, the shish-kebab claw.

It’s all a mess, but it moves right along and almost makes a sort of sense. In a way, it’s another anti-nuclear story, but so subtle that it may not affect today’s audience, at this far remove from –

Oh, wait. Ukraine. Maybe it is relevant.

So it’s a bit of fun, a good pace on it, and a kaboom at the end is threatened. Maybe we care. Maybe we don’t. But, in today’s weather here in Minnesota, the thought of residing on a warm, South Pacific island is quite alluring.

Go for the island and the views!

And can you imagine the Disney ride? Wheeeeeeeeeee– gulp

Twisting The System

In the GOP primary contest for the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, contested by Mehmet Oz (aka Dr. Oz of television fame), David McCormick, a businessman who is another Trumpian devotee, and Kathy Barnette, who claims to be a Trumpian while discarding the actual former President, the first two candidates are locked in quite a battle at the ballot box, while Barnette did not do as well as expected. In fact, the contest remains undecided.

And Trump is trying to game the system:

Ex-President Donald Trump is injecting his democracy-damaging fraud claims into a new election cycle, urging his friend Mehmet Oz to simply declare he won a too-close-to-call race for the Republican Senate nomination in Pennsylvania — a key state in Trump’s desperate bid to steal the 2020 election.

The cliffhanger contest between Oz and David McCormick, another claimant to Trump’s legacy, is the marquee race from Tuesday’s round of primaries — and carries calamitous echoes of 2020 election controversy and ill omens for 2024. [CNN/Politics]

Oz has not, to my knowledge, taken that advice, but a number of pundits are outraged. What struck me, however, is how this is really an attempt to take part of our electoral system away from the folks who are tasked with, and measured by, their partisan-less vote counting, and move that part of our system into, at best, a partisan operation, and, at worse, into the camp of a party involved in the contest.

Trump attempts to camouflage this by claiming the process is already rigged, as we all know. Here’s Trump on this race:

The usual sloppy thinking. France is a magnitude smaller than the US in terms of voting population. Less obvious is the spirit of volunteering in the two countries, which would certainly affect the number of volunteers available; interference and security concerns; monitoring concerns; requirements for overseas voting by military personnel and how they handle it.

And here Trump wants to discard the votes of Republicans that don’t meet his criteria, i.e., didn’t vote for Oz.

In the end, he wants his people to count the votes, to move vote counting under his control. Sorry, dude, it just doesn’t work that way.

And that’s the most important part of this race.

And Why Is That Relevant?

Colorado gubernatorial candidate Greg Lopez is in search of a way to help Republicans win in this heavily Democratic state, and it involves getting rid of the one-person one-vote paradigm and replacing it with an electoral college approach of peculiar character. He’s got it all worked out:

Lopez said his electoral college plan would weight counties’ votes based on their voter turnout percentage to encourage turnout.

“I’ve already got the plan in place,” Lopez said. “The most that any county can get is 11 electoral college votes. The least that a county can get is three.” [9News]

Onwards to the exceptionally dubious summation by Lopez:

“It’s not about one-person, one-vote,” Lopez said at the May 15 campaign stop. “It’s about true representation.”

It conveniently ignores differences in population, doesn’t it? If you’re in a ten person county, your vote will weigh far more than if you’re in a one hundred person county.

Then there’s that pesky winner-take-all stipulation implied in the proposal. A candidate wins an important county by a single vote and they get all the electoral votes. This is representation how?

It’s not, is it? Just a poorly thought out scheme to grab power.

9News, of course, analyzed how such a system would have changed the last election, for what it’s worth:

9NEWS analyzed how Lopez’s proposal could have impacted the results of the 2018 gubernatorial race. In lieu of details on the plan from the Lopez campaign, 9NEWS sorted the 2018 county turnout percentages in the gubernatorial race and sorted then into as equally-sized tiers as possible, assigning 11 electoral votes to the highest turnout tier and three electoral votes to the lowest turnout tier.

Under Lopez’s plan, that governor’s race would have been a runaway win for Republicans, who lost the actual race by double-digits when each vote was weighted equally.

Democrat Jared Polis defeated Republican Walker Stapleton by more than 10 percentage points. Lopez’s electoral college plan would have swung that race for Republicans by nearly 30 percentage points, resulting in the equivalent of an 18 percentage point victory for Stapleton over Polis.

And this dude is the best that Colorado Republicans can manage for the governor’s seat? They’re just crumbling into dust, it seems.

Another Fracture

We’ve been seeing numerous Republicans exit the party as it skids to the right, but now, apparently, the fractures may be on the right.

Although I’m also inclined to read this as the whimpering of an immature and power hungry twerp:

“I am on a mission now to expose those who say and promise one thing yet legislate and work towards another, self-profiteering, globalist goal,” [Rep Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), defeated recently in a primary] wrote. “The time for genteel politics as usual has come to an end. It’s time for the rise of the new right, it’s time for Dark MAGA to truly take command. We have an enemy to defeat, but we will never be able to defeat them until we defeat the cowardly and weak members of our own party. Their days are numbered. We are coming.” [Maddowblog – I’m not going to link to the unreadable original Instagram post.]

While this could end in blood for certain Republican Party members that have displeased Cawthorn, I hope not. Cawthorn needs to go find an obscure job and just drop out – it’s clear that he’s not suited to politics or high responsibility.

Incentivizing Going Over A Cliff

Reading this:

The Oklahoma Legislature passed a bill Thursday that would ban nearly all abortions, the latest and most severe in a string of anti-abortion measures approved in the state in recent months.

Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, is expected to sign the measure, HB 4327, which would prohibit abortions after “fertilization” with few exceptions, making it the most restrictive such law in the country. It passed the Republican-controlled House by a vote of 73-16. [NBC News]

It’s hard for me to avoid the impression that the Oklahoma legislature is trying to engage in one-upmanship. In other words, rather than incentivizing wisdom in governance, someone has said The winner will be the one who can be most extreme in casting out abortion!

Which seems despicable to me.

Extremism has been incentivized by the Republicans for half a century and more, and that’s what we’re getting: cartoon characters in State and Federal legislatures.

Or just file this under Toxic Team Politics, yeah?

It’s Not Numbers That Are Impressive

Public Opinion Strategies‘ Glen Bolger, a top Republican pollster, on former President Trump’s strategy when it comes to endorsements:

“I don’t know whether he is letting emotion rule his decision making or if he is getting bad advice,” explained Glen Bolger. “But it seems like he is picking candidates who are pretty weak, and that’s not a place — when you’re trying to be kingpin — where you want to be.” [Raw Story]

But, for the audience Trump seeks to please, numbers are not of primary importance; they want good stories. I say that as, to borrow a phrase from my sister, a story junkie myself.

If Trump can endorse a nobody and elevate that nobody to electoral victory, he gains not only the undying gratitude[1] of the recipient, now riding on high, but he adds to his personal story of the Midas touch. The iconic example is Ron DeSantis, then an obscure backbench member of Congress, who entered the race for Florida governor and is widely credited with winning it by attracting Trump’s endorsement through artful and plentiful appearances on Fox News.

If Trump were better at it, his prestige would be higher. But he’s not all that good at it. In some cases, he’s stepped on the one step too far for the GOP base, domestic & sexual transgressions. See Charles Herbster (R-NE), for instance, beaten in the Nebraska primary for governor despite Trump’s endorsement amidst allegations of Herbster sexually harassing various women, or, worse yet, Sean Parnell (R-PA), endorsed for the Pennsylvania Senate race and forced to withdraw over domestic incident accusations, even though heartily denied.

Other failures are less obvious: Incumbent Senator Luther Strange in Alabama springs right to mind. I do not recall any particular transgressions, but Trump-endorsed Strange lost to Judge Roy Moore, who was then beaten by Democrat Doug Jones in the special election.

But the point is that Trump is trying to build a brand. He doesn’t do it very well, witness his poor picks, and other picks just go awry. He’s not the kingpin that Bolger believes he aspires to be. But I think Bolger has the story wrong.

As it were.


1 Not really. See, again, Governor DeSantis, now a man making the noises of a 2024 rival of Trump’s.

Government Regulation Can Stop Crap Like This

Thinking back to when I read Reason Magazine, they never pointed out that government regulation, effectively implemented, can stop crap like this:

As downpours intensified on 23 April on the outskirts of Bogotá, Colombia, toxic foam from an adjacent river started engulfing the Los Puentes neighbourhood.

Fluffy white froth emerged from the water and was whisked up by the wind until it reached a height of 5 metres and blanketed cars and roads, says restaurant manager María Morales. Eventually, it crept through the windows of her kitchen, forcing her to close the business.

Though the scenes may resemble a harmless giant bubble bath, the residents know better.

“If it were normal foam, the kids would love it,” says Maria Chacue, who has had a hard time stopping her 22-month-old son from playing in the toxic chemicals, which include compounds from soaps and detergents. “But it’s not normal. It’s so polluted.”

Environmental officials blame the heavy rains driven by the La Niña weather phenomenon, which have flooded much of Colombia in recent weeks. As the Bojacá and Subachoque rivers converge in the lower river basin near Los Puentes at high speeds and volumes, they churn up the underlying contaminants. [“Toxic foam from polluted rivers causes health problems in Colombia,” Luke Taylor, NewScientist (14 May 2022, paywall)]

The Cuyahoga River fire, aka, if inaccurately, the Lake Erie Fire.
Image: Cleveland State University Library via WYSO.

Of course, the United States has seen such abuse, although with different manifestations. In 1969, the heavily polluted Cuyahoga River caught fire; the link on the right has a story on the resulting Clean Water Act.

But the point is, if you consider yourself to be anti-regulation, that picture on the right is what you’re enabling.

A Boulder Falling On A Highway, Ctd

The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll is out and contains what some might think is preliminary evidence of my contention that the Democrats will find strength in the supposedly imminent ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade:

Democrats also got a boost on which party Americans want to control Congress. By a 47%-to-42% margin, this survey showed voters would cast their ballot in favor of a Democrat in their local congressional district if the election were held today.

For Democrats, that is a net increase on the so-called congressional ballot test of 8 points from last month’s survey, when 47% said they would vote for a Republican, as compared to 44% who said they would vote for a Democrat. Those numbers were within the margin of error, but it was the first time in eight years that Republicans had done that well on the question in the Marist poll.

The question is whether this spike for Democrats lasts. [Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll] sees reason to believe it might.

Yes, will the spike not be a spike? In a poll with a margin of ± 3.9% for adults and 4.1% for registered voters, there’s lots of room to bounce around, so I’d like to see several polls in a row before I might believe that there’s some proof that the upturning of Roe has electoral legs.

Keep in mind that this has the most visibility in Presidential and Senate races; the House, which is vulnerable to gerrymandering, will only reflect such legs if independents in the few swing districts go out and vote.

Keep an eye on the polling.

Currency Always Has Costs, Ctd

On a slightly lighter note concerning cryptocurrencies comes this news from the recent primary in Oregon:

Speaking of the Democratic establishment getting one wrong: Biden aside, the party more broadly didn’t fight too hard for [Rep. Kurt Schrader of Oregon]. But a PAC affiliated with House Democratic leaders did spend $1 million on a candidate in the neighboring 6th District, Carrick Flynn. Flynn is trailing state Rep. Andrea Salinas, 38 percent to 19 percent.

That investment in an apparently losing candidate, though, pales to Flynn’s biggest benefactor: cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. His Protect Our Future PAC spent more than $11 million on Flynn — a stunning sum for one out of 435 House seats — and it appears to have failed badly. [WaPo]

Two days later and the numbers for Flynn haven’t changed much. It’s astounding that someone would spend that much money during primary season to boost a candidate. Sure, some of that money might leak over to the general election as well – that is, if Flynn had won. But he lost, and badly.

Proof, I suppose, that some votes, and voters, cannot be bought. Even with the mystic value of cryptocurrency. There’s a corollary in that mass of sheep-doo somewhere, but I’m not digging for it too enthusiastically. It’ll be covered in doo.

And in other news, the Middle East appears to be getting enthusiastic about crypto-everything, if I’m to believe this slightly mystifying fragment of an article in GDN Online:

MANAMA: A Saudi-Bahraini family business that hosts the Bahrain Comic Con has become the first in Bahrain to accept cryptocurrencies and NFTs as payment. Salman Bukhari, managing partner at Dallah, told the GDN in an exclusive interview that he and his brothers decided to be early-adopters of the trend that’s sweeping across the world .

I couldn’t read anymore unless I registered, and I didn’t feel like incurring any more spam, so I guess I won’t be learning how an NFT (non-fungible tokens) can be used for payment. After all, an NFT is going to vary in subjective value over time. Only when buyer and seller agree on a price is a value briefly fixed. That makes payment in NFTs, at best, cumbersome.

Very odd.

Earl Landgrebe Award Nominee

In what seems to be a desperate bid for attention, Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) is gaining a second Earl Landgrebe nomination on basically the same subject as the first oneexpungements:

FIRST ON FOX: House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik and more than two dozen of her colleagues are supporting a resolution to “expunge” former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment – as pro-Trump Republicans push to rally voters ahead of the midterms.

Rep. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., is leading the resolution, which would apply to Trump’s 2021 impeachment in the wake of the attack on the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters. It’s similar to a previous resolution Mullin introduced on Trump’s first impeachment, which concerned him allegedly withholding military aid from Ukraine in exchange for political favors.

The Daily Beast first reported on the existence of the more recent resolution. But the support for it by Stefanik and other Republicans, including House GOP Conference Vice Chair Mike Johnson, R-La., was not revealed until Wednesday. And although it will not pass the Democrat-controlled House, it underscores Republicans’ continued support for Trump nearly 16 months after he left office. [Fox News]

The prior nomination was for Rep Mullin’s sordid attempt to expunge the record of Trump’s first impeachment.

And is this an example of his continued support for Trump? Steve Benen remarks:

… Mullin — who also happens to be a U.S. Senate candidate in Oklahoma — …

There’s one real clue: a kid desperate for the attention of Daddy. And who else is in the race to replace the retired Senator Inhofe (R-OK)? Why, former Trump EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt (R-OK), he who was chased from government with so many scandals nipping at his heels that I lost count! An embarrassment to the nation and to Trump, and at least the latter didn’t acknowledge it.

So Mullin’s feeling worried, eh? Let’s all scream for Daddy now!

Ugly Developments

AL-Monitor reports India is no longer planning to export wheat once current commitments are met:

Wheat prices rose significantly today following India restricting wheat exports — a move that could affect Egypt in particular.

Chicago wheat futures rose around 5% today to $12.40 per bushel, which is the highest price since 2008. The index is considered a benchmark for wheat prices worldwide. A bushel corresponds to roughly 35 liters.

The price increase followed India banning wheat exports over the weekend, citing the risk of food shortages. India was only responsible for about 0.5% of wheat exports in 2020. However, India is one of the biggest wheat producers in the world, and has considered exporting more wheat amid the Russian war on Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia are top wheat exporters, and the war has disrupted global wheat markets.

What’s left unsaid here? With the usual caveats about international messaging and nationalist leaders – and India’s Prime Minister Modi is about as nationalistic as they come – the immediate question is Why is India worried about their own wheat production?

Is climate change hitting them now? I know that quite a few years ago, when I was there on a work trip, the monsoon failed, endangering various crops; another time, it rained when it wasn’t supposed to, ruining the mango crop. One or two events are too little for conclusions, but if they’re having trouble growing enough food for themselves because of weather or other problems, is this signaling more problems heading our way?

Exacerbated by Putin’s War?

I’m not looking for food prices to drop any time soon. And, I’m sure to the dismay of domestic natalists, we may see the American birth rate edge down even further as prospective parents take a look at the price of food, which acts as a proxy, imperfect as it may be, for the plenitude of the food supply, and decide to hold off, or not have children at all.

While I appreciate Biden’s position vis a vis Putin’s War, his restraint in not hitting Putin harder – including putting troops in Ukraine – may end up hurting the world long-term, as Ukraine is a major food exporter. Russia’s ruination of Ukraine will not be remedied in a year, or even five. It may take ten or more, depending on the determination of Russian troops to salt the land, so to speak.

That’s Entertainment, Baby

The youngest member of what I’m calling the Young Right-Wing Crazies Caucus, Rep Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), faced a primary opponent last night in his first try at reelection … and lost. From CNN/Politics:

The result is by only a few hundred votes, but reportedly Cawthorn has conceded rather than wrestling violently for his position.

Which is odd.

Steve Benen summarizes the blunders that leaves the 26 year old looking at unemployment starting early next year:

It’s difficult to rank each of Cawthorn’s many scandals, screw-ups, and failures — the list is not short — but one recent incident was largely responsible for derailing his career. As regular readers know, the congressman appeared on a podcast in March and was asked whether the TV show “House of Cards” is realistic. He said he couldn’t help but marvel at the “sexual perversion” of his older colleagues, adding that his congressional colleagues had invited him to orgies and done cocaine in his presence.

House Republicans will tolerate an astonishing amount of misconduct, but this crossed a line: Cawthorn making up nonsense about them was seen as a bridge too far. The North Carolinian conceded that much of what he’d claimed was “exaggerated” — he also claimed not to know “what cocaine is” — but much of the GOP was underwhelmed by his explanation and turned on him with a vengeance.

It’s not hard to visualize this young man, faced with a question out of the entertainment world, and with a background of saying outrageous and possibly false things, jumping at the opportunity to be, well, entertaining. After all, this is the Age of Entertainment, as I occasionally remind friends. He was just going with the flow of his age group.

And lying had not hurt him before, no?

It all ties together with his immediate concession to his opponent, too. The last few weeks have seen his more senior colleagues, outraged at his infamous charges, working against him. Winning this primary, and almost certainly the general election, would result in a position of isolation, with only the other members of the Young Right-Wing Crazies Caucus, plus a few nuts-loose Representatives such as Gosar, etc, to keep him company.

Maybe.

I suspect he welcomes this loss, or should. He may have trouble finding a new political position, presumably as ‘consultant,’ but look for him to try. He might even resign from Congress before then.

And maybe reconsider his role as ‘entertainer.’

Get A Load Of History, Dude

Just dump it in the front yard, yeah?

Erick Erickson thinks he knows what’s wrong with America. See if you can guess what his solution might be:

Our country doesn’t have a partisan problem, a political problem, a social problem, an economic problem, or any other problem as big as the spiritual problem we have.

In the absence of God, Americans across partisan lines have turned to government and celebrity for their gods. They have gone off to worship idols.

Indeed? And somehow Erickson has forgotten about all the intra-<place your favorite religion> violence that has occurred over the centuries? Protestant on Catholic on Protestant, for example? Even peaceful Hindus experience violence over such things as the invasion of Western customs. Imagine getting beat up because someone thought you were celebrating Valentine’s Day. (According to the Times of India article I read while in India 20+ years ago, it was actually a birthday party that happened to fall on Valentine’s Day. Poor guy.)

Religion is the source of much, but not all, violence. There’s nothing like an obscure theological point that some power-seeking person chooses to hang their hat on and start a fight over, that often turns deadly because each side is convinced that the Divinity is on their side. Concerning a Divinity for which they have no objective proof.

And, of course, Erickson ends his rant in the worst possible way, and, as a lawyer and intellectual, he knows better:

We need Jesus, not partisanship. We should expect our President to do anything but say that. Our leaders have failed us on all sides. They’ve led us to idols and performance art on social media.

Sheer, shameful pandering to the audience. This is how to solidify the base – don’t give them a reason to question, play to their biases. And he knows that, besides the fact that a good chunk of the United States isn’t Christian, and many of those that are know this, the President can’t do that. A President, in his official capacity, cannot advocate for a particular religion. Even if prosecuting him would be dicey, he’d immediately lose support right across the spectrum.

And does Erickson want to be told he should convert to Catholicism, if Biden were to choose to go full Jesus?

I won’t presume to prescribe for what ails us, because I think it’s a complex problem involving religion, intellectual laxness, arrogance, and the insane reach of the Web, but I do think that prescribing the source of many bloody wars as a solution is a bit of … well, self-delusion or pandering. Take your pick.

That Anti-Immigrant Shrieking

Every time I run across another reference to Rep and GOP leader Stefanik (R-NY) refusing to see a connection between her comments on immigration and the reported motivations of the Buffalo mass murderer (alleged, of course), to wit, replacement theory, which is best summarized as “The Democrats are letting all those non-white immigrants in in order to replace us Republicans!”, I simply want to scream.

I want to scream,

Immigrants are neither liberal nor, for that matter, conservative by virtue of their being immigrants!

Seems obvious, no? But it’s not just a theoretical wave of the hand, meant to trick naive Republicans into denouncing a murderer who acted on a message which should be confined to the far-right fringe, but is actually advocated by Fox News personality Tucker Carlson – or so I’m told. No, no, no – which applies to taking Carlson seriously or my point as theoretical.

One of the factors that has made the Democrats position less stable than they’d like is that certain immigrant groups, such as Latinos originating from socialist, or so claiming to be socialist, nations don’t want to be in a socialist nation again. Ask former Cubans in Miami. Heck, I know a former Cuban, I should ask her. The point being that they came here seeking freedom to work, freedom to live, and a word they associate with a less salubrious environment is thrust upon them.

Similarly, there are other Democratic ideologies that are known to grate on immigrants’ nerves – with Latinos, again, the entire LatinX replacement for Latina and Latino is a well-known friction point.

And then add in a certain thread of autocracy that seems to run, ever so delicately, in the Democrats. We’ve seen it with their botching of the transgender issue. They seem to have grown a tendency to want to impose their views, large and small.

And, to some extent, that’s a governmental operational characteristic. But when it comes to public policy, it shouldn’t be.

Oh, sure, when faced with the fourth-raters that make up the opposition, it can be hard to have a serious discussion. The last time what passes for conservatives tried to have a discussion – the gay marriage issue – they were positively creamed. Nowadays they find some nasty word to scream and otherwise refuse to engage.

But that doesn’t make the Democrats look any better. When 25% of the gay community votes conservative, you can bet that the Democrats and their left wing has a problem.

But neither left nor right seem to understand that immigrants are neither liberal nor conservative, which is odd.

Pricing Ourselves Out Of Smart

CNBC reports on a local company’s analysis of kids and college:

More than two years into the pandemic, nearly three-quarters, or 73%, of high schoolers think a direct path to a career is essential in postsecondary education, according to a survey of high school students.

The likelihood of attending a four-year school sank from 71% to 51% in the past two years, ECMC Group found.

High schoolers are putting more emphasis on career training and post-college employment, the report said. ECMC Group, a nonprofit aimed at helping students find success, polled more than 5,300 high school students five times since February 2020. …

Even before the pandemic, students were starting to consider more affordable, direct-to-career alternatives to a four-year degree, said Jeremy Wheaton, ECMC Group’s president and CEO.

The rising cost of college and ballooning student loan balances have played a large role in the changing views, but “they [students] are more savvy than we give them credit for,” Wheaton said. “They are aware of the jobs that are in high demand.”

But is that the way to run a society? Kids are rarely aware of their potential, even encumbered as it may be by upbringing, environment, hormone-driven bodies, and other barriers to achievement.

But, then again, those jobs in high demand are, in part, critical or close to critical to society. Who’s to deny them the opportunity to serve society in such a capacity?

Nor is college necessary at age 18; in fact, in some may consider it a detriment, given the fact that the brain is not yet completely wired in virtually everyone at that age. However, I wonder about the importance of stress, such as the stress of college, in facilitating the proper wiring of the brain. It seems unlikely that the wiring aspect of brain development is immune to outside influences.

In the end, we may see universities reaching out with special packages emphasizing the liberal arts / civic responsibilities that may not have reached these adults back in high school – if, in fact, they were taught at all.

And that’ll be yet another node of the culture wars.

Currency Always Has Costs, Ctd

It’s been a bit of a scramble in the arena of selling cryptocurrencies to the general public, public relations-wise, over the last month. WaPo covers a couple of points:

Yet that digital coin, a type of crypto known as a stablecoin because it aims to keep its price at $1, has been in free-fall this week. TerraUSD, or UST as it is known, was priced as low as 30 cents on Wednesday and was trading around 40 cents Thursday evening (crypto trades around the clock).

It isn’t clear yet what sent UST into a tailspin. But the cratering of what had been the third-largest stablecoin by total market value points to a wider reckoning for a hype-fueled asset class that is deflating as dramatically this year as it inflated in 2021.

It gets worse.

A sell-off over just the past seven days has erased more than a quarter of the value from the global crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap. Most dramatically, UST’s sister coin, Luna, lost almost all of its value in the past week, all but wiping out most people who had invested in it.

And they’re not supposed to be investments for most people. They’re supposed to be currencies. Yes, words matter. The fact that Luna can fall to zero suggests it, and its brethren, are not immune to manipulation.

But here’s what worries me:

Institutional players have overtaken retail investors on Coinbase [the largest U.S.-based crypto trading platform], for example. Mom-and-pop traders accounted for a third of the volume on the platform last year, down from 80 percent in 2018, according to new research from Morgan Stanley. And Wall Street firms continue edging into the sector. Goldman Sachs in March executed its first over-the-counter trades of bitcoin options; BlackRock last month announced it is investing in the stablecoin company Circle Internet Financial.

And if everything goes kaplooey?

Remember Long Term Capital Managment? Maybe not. Back in 1998, this hedge fund, using work by several Nobel Prize winners, went right over the ol’ financial cliff, after some initial successes. But when many of us expected the wealthy investors who were using it to become more wealthy to, instead, lose their shirts, well, let’s have Wikipedia tell us:

LTCM was initially successful, with annualized returns (after fees) of around 21% in its first year, 43% in its second year and 41% in its third year. However, in 1998 it lost $4.6 billion in less than four months due to a combination of high leverage and exposure to the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 1998 Russian financial crisis. The master hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Portfolio L.P., collapsed soon thereafter, leading to an agreement on September 23, 1998, among 14 financial institutions for a $3.65 billion recapitalization under the supervision of the Federal Reserve. The fund was liquidated and dissolved in early 2000.

Which leads to this question: If these big institutions cited as becoming movers and shakers in cryptocurrency find it suddenly becomes little more than rainwater in an asbestos gutter – will they be running to the Federal Reserve or the Federal government, gnashing their teeth, beating their breasts, and wailing to be bailed out?

How big is that going to be?

And how are these institutions going to learn to stop being foolish if their fingers aren’t burned? I know, I know, Lehman Bros was the sacrificial lamb in 2008, meant to learn them darn competitors of their’s.

Will the banks have to eat those losses if they occur?

And that’s what I fear in light of this, from the WaPo article:

Tyler Gellasch, founder of the nonprofit Healthy Markets Association, said traditional financial institutions have missed too many years of booming crypto values to be dissuaded from the crypto market now. “Concerns over fraud, volatility, and regulatory uncertainty kept many traditional financial firms on the sidelines for the boom in digital assets,” he said. “After several years of missing out on the profits, many in traditional finance have just recently committed to getting involved in digital asset markets. I’ll be surprised if they immediately U-turn now. They’ve committed too many resources to figure out how to offer something to their customers.”

If that’s not emotional manipulation, I don’t know what is. At best, it’s foolish. At worst? Use your imaginations.

Belated Movie Reviews

All I can think is that Anguirus, the dude on the right, was on testosterone shots. I mean, he never had a chance. – Words of famous Godzillaologist.

Godzilla Raids Again (1955) is the follow up to Gojira (1954), the original Godzilla movie, and is an inferior sequel. A pilot employed by a fishing outfit to guide big fishing trawlers to big schools of fish runs into engine trouble while out working, and manages to set the seaplane down in a bay of a relatively rocky island. As his partner comes to his rescue, Godzilla hoves into view on the island, and is engaged by a giant ankylosaurus, later to be named Anguirus.

The distraction of Godzilla permits the aviators to escape in the rescuer’s seaplane, but, to the dismay of the Japanese authorities who thought Godzilla had perished in Gojira, Godzilla is sighted closing in on Japan. Near Osaka, Godzilla’s attraction to light is used to lure him back out to sea, but an unfortunate accident involving escaped convicts and an oil refinery spoils the plan, and Godzilla stomps up on shore to enjoy his bonfire. His pleasure is disrupted when Anguirus emerges from the sea as well, and attacks again, but this time Anguirus has overreached, and Godzilla wins the day, returning to the sea covered in glory. Blood. Whatever.

Next sighted in some rich fishing grounds, the fishing company and the Japan Self Defense Forces combine their resources to hunt the recalcitrant kaiju. Will they succeed? Or will Godzilla run rampant?

And what about the love subplot?

While Godzilla remains mysterious, it’s not the terrifying What’s he got against us? mysteriousness of Gojira. It’s more along the lines of Oh, not Godzilla again. Who the hell knows what it is this time. Who has the can of RAID bug spray? Maybe that’ll OOPS —

Anyways. The jet pilots seem a little incompetent, while Godzilla appears ill-equipped to deal with fake avalanches, so why is he on an icy island, rather than his usual stomping grounds of Tokyo some South Pacific island where the living’s good? The romantic subplot is sort of nice, but I’m not sure how it ties into Godzilla’s activities, so it was a little distracting.

In sum, it’s disappointing. The terror of Gojira is lost, replaced by a puzzled frown.