AL-Monitor reports India is no longer planning to export wheat once current commitments are met:
Wheat prices rose significantly today following India restricting wheat exports — a move that could affect Egypt in particular.
Chicago wheat futures rose around 5% today to $12.40 per bushel, which is the highest price since 2008. The index is considered a benchmark for wheat prices worldwide. A bushel corresponds to roughly 35 liters.
The price increase followed India banning wheat exports over the weekend, citing the risk of food shortages. India was only responsible for about 0.5% of wheat exports in 2020. However, India is one of the biggest wheat producers in the world, and has considered exporting more wheat amid the Russian war on Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia are top wheat exporters, and the war has disrupted global wheat markets.
Image: MapsOfIndia.com
What’s left unsaid here? With the usual caveats about international messaging and nationalist leaders – and India’s Prime Minister Modi is about as nationalistic as they come – the immediate question is Why is India worried about their own wheat production?
Is climate change hitting them now? I know that quite a few years ago, when I was there on a work trip, the monsoon failed, endangering various crops; another time, it rained when it wasn’t supposed to, ruining the mango crop. One or two events are too little for conclusions, but if they’re having trouble growing enough food for themselves because of weather or other problems, is this signaling more problems heading our way?
Exacerbated by Putin’s War?
I’m not looking for food prices to drop any time soon. And, I’m sure to the dismay of domestic natalists, we may see the American birth rate edge down even further as prospective parents take a look at the price of food, which acts as a proxy, imperfect as it may be, for the plenitude of the food supply, and decide to hold off, or not have children at all.
While I appreciate Biden’s position vis a vis Putin’s War, his restraint in not hitting Putin harder – including putting troops in Ukraine – may end up hurting the world long-term, as Ukraine is a major food exporter. Russia’s ruination of Ukraine will not be remedied in a year, or even five. It may take ten or more, depending on the determination of Russian troops to salt the land, so to speak.
