Democracy In Crisis? Ctd

Back in 2016 I professed concerns about the survival of democracy, especially if it is not given both competent people to run it and a proper advocacy. It is both disturbing and reassuring to see the President of the United States shares similar concerns:

This is a defining question of our time: Can democracies come together to deliver real results for our people in a rapidly changing world? Will the democratic alliances and institutions that shaped so much of the last century prove their capacity against modern-day threats and adversaries? I believe the answer is yes. And this week in Europe [during the President’s trip], we have the chance to prove it. [WaPo]

Although my concerns are more granular: can the citizens of democracies drop their delusions, learn the new information technologies, and retain their sanity in the face of the chaos and mendacity of the autocracies? As I said in 2016:

The real key for a democracy is honesty. That’s where it all begins. As we saw in the last election, between Trump lying every time he opened his mouth, and deceit flooding the Internet, and naive Internet denizens actually believing sometimes unbelievable crap, we are stuck with a government led by a highly inexperienced politician who is busy populating his proposed leadership team with similarly inexperienced zealots.

The question is whether we can survive and compress Turchin’s disintegrative period, or will we find ourselves in a Civil War which reduces the population to the point where we can tolerate the delusional? Unfortunately, advancing technology makes it harder to withstand the delusional, as improved information, communications, and military technology make it more difficult to ignore them.

Change Is Bad

Or at least guys of Senator Manchin’s (R-WV) age would affirm. Consider his defense of the Senate filibuster:

The right to vote is fundamental to our American democracy and protecting that right should not be about party or politics. Least of all, protecting this right, which is a value I share, should never be done in a partisan manner. [Charleston Gazette-Mail]

That’s a nice start.

During my time as West Virginia’s secretary of state, I was determined to protect this right and ensure our elections are fair, accessible and secure. Not to benefit my party but all the people of West Virginia. For example, as secretary of state I took specific actions to establish early voting for the first time in West Virginia in order to provide expanded options for those whose work or family schedule made it difficult for them to vote on Election Day. Throughout my tenure in politics, I have been guided by this simple philosophy — our party labels can’t prevent us from doing what is right.

Ah, credentials! But, in this case, the credential card is designed to distract from the realities of the situation.

Democrats in Congress have proposed a sweeping election reform bill called the For the People Act. This more than 800-page bill has garnered zero Republican support. Why? Are the very Republican senators who voted to impeach Trump because of actions that led to an attack on our democracy unwilling to support actions to strengthen our democracy? Are these same senators, whom many in my party applauded for their courage, now threats to the very democracy we seek to protect?

Uh oh. Are there specific objections to the bill? How does it favor any group over another? Or does it simply make it easier for qualified voters to exercise the franchise?

Unfortunately – for Manchin – he wants to rely on a proxy, always a tricky business, for measuring the worthiness of the bill: How much Republican opposition is there to the bill. This, in turn, exposes some questionable assumptions:

  • That Republicans will put Country over Party;
  • That Republicans believe all citizens should get the chance to vote;
  • That Republicans are free of dangerous delusions concerning the Democrats;
  • That Republicans are not under mortal threat to vote in certain ways;
  • That any given Republican, knowing the filibuster will be upheld, will still vote against the filibuster;

And there’s more, but I’m bored with picking nits. All of the above may be verified through consultations concerning recent history.

But we’re not finished here, because Manchin really exposes himself:

With that in mind, some Democrats have again proposed eliminating the Senate filibuster rule in order to pass the For the People Act with only Democratic support. They’ve attempted to demonize the filibuster and conveniently ignore how it has been critical to protecting the rights of Democrats in the past.

Manchin distracts from the real point with that second sentence; indeed, he conveniently ignores the fact that many of those Democrats have formally retracted their support for the filibuster.

And the real point?

As everyone knows, it takes 60 votes under current Senate rules on the filibuster to invoke cloture.

This means that 41 members of the Senate control the business of the Senate that doesn’t fall into the categories of financial or confirmation of judicial or Cabinet nominees. As there are 50 Republican members, this means that 41 Republicans outvote the 51 Democratic members of the Senate (Vice President Harris is considered a member of the Senate for voting purposes on tie votes), which is in direct contradiction of Manchin’s first paragraph, above.

And renders his position arrant nonsense.

From a historical point of view, the filibuster isn’t a hallowed part of the Constitution; it’s an experiment. An experiment which is proving to be less and less effective as the composition and temperament of the Senate changes over time.

If Manchin cannot clarify what he finds objectionable about the For The People Act – beyond the title, of course, but legislative titling is just a peeve of mine – then he should vote for it. If Republicans will not vote for it, and he thinks that matters, then he’s not fulfilling his responsibilities as a United States Senator, and should consider resigning in shame.

And it’s really too bad. Long time readers will understand why I like this point:

As such, congressional action on federal voting rights legislation must be the result of both Democrats and Republicans coming together to find a pathway forward or we risk further dividing and destroying the republic we swore to protect and defend as elected officials.

Because I believe governance is difficult and needs contributions from many, I like the sentiment. But I recognize that contributions must be honest, and I am no longer convinced that Republicans are honest. There have been multiple admissions of guilt on that front, from Gingrich to Lee to McConnell; why should I believe such dubious characters as these have changed?

No. In better voting procedures, they see their policies and politico-religious tenets, which are diminishing in plausibility and popularity, dragging them to defeat. Better to constrict voting possibilities and scream lies about fraud than risk defeat.

Manchin speaks in fine words, but they clothe intellectual chaos. Enough, Manchin. Either admit you do not believe in the sanctity of the vote, or change your mind.

Stroke Counterstroke

Long time readers know I view the Russian invasion of the Crimea, followed by the increased output of oil by the United States, and the interference in the 2016 and 2020 elections, as a series of maneuvers in an undeclared war between Putin’s Russia and the United States.

So astute readers will no doubt being asking Why was there little to be seen in the 2016 – 2020 period, beyond American warnings of attempts to interfere in the 2020 election?

Because in Donald J. Trump, President Putin had a patsy with whom it was better to treat politely as Trump labored to keep Putin, widely rumored to have a hold on Trump, happy. Certainly, top secret information flowed from Trump to Putin, and it started virtually from Day One. How else did Putin benefit?

Ask a Russian expert, not me. I can pick out the obvious stuff, such as top secret information and the opportunity to sell Russian arms to former American ally Turkey. But what else could there be? Back to the real story:

But Trump only lasted a single term, and, regardless of his ceaseless whining, he’s not returning. It only makes sense, therefore, for Putin to get in the next counterstroke while President Biden and his people work to unwind the foolishness we saw from Trump and his people.

And what is the counterstroke?

Ransomware. CNN/Politics provides a terse summary of recent events in an alarmingly titled article, “Ransomware attacks saddle Biden with grave national security crisis“:

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a congressional hearing on Monday that Biden would make clear when he saw the Russian leader that “states cannot be in the business of harboring those who are engaged in these kinds of attacks.”

His comment came after Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm Sunday warned that “very malign actors” had the US in their sights after attacks on a pipeline, government agencies, a Florida water system, schools, health care institutions and, even last week, the meat industry and a ferry service to millionaire’s playground Martha’s Vineyard.

“Even as we speak, there are thousands of attacks on all aspects of the energy sector and the private sector generally … it’s happening all the time,” Granholm told Jake Tapper on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Alarmingly, the former Michigan governor said that foreign hackers have the capability to shut down the US power network, and counseled firms against paying ransoms demanded by hackers.

Fortunately, it appears that at least some American officials recognize this as a war:

Maine Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, warned that the US was now reaping the consequences for failing to respond sufficiently boldly to past attacks by China, Russia and North Korea.

“We have been a cheap date. And you can’t defend yourself simply by bobbing and weaving and patching. The adversary has to understand they will pay a price, there will be a cost for attacking the United States or for attacking our critical infrastructure,” King said, also on “State of the Union.”

And others, sad to say, don’t:

Unlike after the attacks on New York and the Pentagon in 2001, the new threat is exposing fractured US political unity. Republicans were quick to seize on the aftermath of the recent hack on the Colonial Pipeline that sparked gas shortages, panic buying and long lines at the pumps last month to suggest Biden was weak and had lost control. Ex-President Donald Trump, who is seeking a political comeback, claimed Saturday that cyberattacks showed lost respect for US leaders since he left office.

Such political opportunism raises doubts over whether Biden would be able to unite Washington around him, if he needed to muster a counter-attack from a major breach of US cyber defenses by a hostile foreign power.

Trump was “strong” enough to deter attacks? Highly doubtful. The people he nominated for important positions were amateurs, at best, who often were opposed to the purposes of the agencies they headed. The last Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe (R-TX), had no experience in the area, and was rejected once by the Senate for a history of mendacity on the subject. One can only imagine then-President Trump putting the squeeze on then-Majority Leader Senator Mitch “Moscow” McConnell (R-KY) to get his patsy approved on the second try.

No, Putin’s move with ransomware is designed to give the Republicans, who’ve forgotten where their loyalties, not to mention their best interests, lay, the opportunity to attack President Biden, trying to make him look bad.

Nevermind that when Trump was faced with a challenge, he retreated into magical thinking and endless lying.

It’ll be interesting to see if President Biden, and his Press Secretary Jenn Psaki, are up to the challenge of portraying this for what it is: the latest move in an undeclared war between autocratic Russia and democratic America.

Do the Republicans have any idea which side they should be on?

PS Don’t put too much faith in this report. Post-event recovery is not much of a discouragement.

It’s Beginning To Feel Like Jello

A somewhat tardy issue of NewScientist (15 May 2021, paywall) informs me of yet another strategy in the process of forming for cryptocurrencies:

Cryptocurrencies based on owning a large number of hard discs, rather than using computer processors, could offer a less energy-intensive alternative to bitcoin and might even make it cheaper to build data centres – although one is already causing soaring demand for hard discs that is disrupting supply chains. …

… rival currencies [to Bitcoin] are emerging that instead make use of large numbers of empty hard discs, a concept known as proof of space.

Because hard drives are less energy-intensive to run than processors, proof-of-space currencies are touted as being more environmentally friendly. However, demand for one such currency, Chia, has become so high that some Asian countries, such as Vietnam, are reporting shortages of hard discs. The same phenomenon occurred with graphics cards, which proved to be extremely efficient at mining certain proof-of-work cryptocurrencies. Currently, around 3 million terabytes of hard disc space are being devoted entirely to mining Chia, enough to store 3 billion movies.

“Proof of space” is defined on BitcoinWiki:

Proof-of-space (PoSpace), also called proof-of-capacity (PoC), is a means of showing that one has a legitimate interest in a service (such as sending an email) by allocating a non-trivial amount of memory or disk space to solve a challenge presented by the service provider. The concept was formulated by Dziembowski et al.

in 2015. Proofs of space are very similar to proofs of work, except that instead of computation, storage is used. Proof-of-space is related to, but also considerably different from, memory-hard functions and proofs of retrievability. (The work of [?] is titled proof-of-space, but is in fact a memory-hard proof-of-work.)

After the release of Bitcoin, alternatives to its PoW mining mechanism were researched and PoSpace was studied in the context of cryptocurrencies. Proofs of space are seen a fairer and greener alternative due to the general-purpose nature of storage the lower energy cost required by storage. Several theoretical and practical implementations of PoSpace have been released and discussed, such as SpaceMint and Burstcoin.

Which seems to be missing a few words here and there. Basically, the miner must provide proof that they can, or perhaps have, dedicated a certain portion of static memory to the mining operation.

And the unanticipated result, according to NS:

Jason Feist at hard drive manufacturer Seagate says the company is experiencing strong orders and that staff were working to “adjust to market demand”.

He also suggested that these new cryptocurrencies could provide a way for companies building large data centres to offset the cost by turning them over to mining. “Chia, and similar technologies such as Filecoin and Sia, show potential ways businesses can turn their idle infrastructure into ongoing revenue,” says Feist.

Sometimes it’s difficult to diagnose desperation in engineers and scientists, but I’m beginning to wonder if that’s what we’re seeing here. Remember Proof of Stake? It was supposed to replace the original Bitcoin strategy, Proof of Work. Now, in Proof of Space, we have a different way to use up resources.

If you wish to don your paranoia bowler hat, note that Chia, the cryptocurrency company behind this scheme, is China based, which supposedly disapproves of cryptocurrencies. Indeed, a later NS (non-magazine) article notes:

Chia, a cryptocurrency intended to be a “green” alternative to bitcoin has instead caused a global shortage of hard discs. Gene Hoffman, the president of Chia Network, the company behind the currency, admits that “we’ve kind of destroyed the short-term supply chain”, but he denies it will become an environmental drain.

I have to wonder if China benefits from driving an artificial need for disc space.

In any case, this hopping from solution to solution to solution for a functional part of cryptocurrencies really makes me wonder if this is the Achilles’ Heel of cryptocurrencies. I’ve expressed the thought before: Currency is a human construct and may require human, not algorithmic, management.

The future should be very interesting in this area, but I’ll not be risking any of my money in it, I think.

That Darn Climate Change Conspiracy, Ctd

From 0 to 2 in one day. At the beginning of the day, zero was the number of contributions that peat had made to the climate change discussion for me, and now it’s up to two. First, Clare Wilson in NewScientist (29 May 2021) notes that it will soon become illegal in Great Britain to sell peat for home composting purposes:

Source: thebacklabel

THIS month, the UK government announced that peat-based composts would no longer be sold to home gardeners by 2024. But some say the ban should happen sooner and also encompass peat’s use by plant nurseries, which is under consultation but not definitely going to be included.

It is ironic that gardeners, who tend to care about the wider environment as well as their own personal green space, often buy peat-based growing media, which is bad for the planet. I have done it myself out of habit and convenience.

Commercially available peat compost is usually made from peat dug out of lowland bogs that form in high rainfall areas of northern Europe and Canada. It makes a wonderful growing medium for new plants because of its ability to hold air and water and retain nutrients.

Yet peat bogs are a precious and finite resource, taking thousands of years to form out of partially decomposed moss residues. When we drain and rip up the bogs, we lose unique ecosystems and release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Later in the day, WaPo had a more detailed article on the matter, including a citation of Minnesota folks draining wetlands for ag purposes. Money quote:

Long before the era of fossil fuels, humans may have triggered a massive but mysterious “carbon bomb” lurking beneath the Earth’s surface, a new scientific study suggests. If the finding is correct, it would mean that we have been neglecting a major human contribution to global warming — one whose legacy continues.

The researchers, from France’s Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences and several other institutions across the globe, suggest that beginning well before the industrial era, the mass conversion of carbon-rich peatlands for agriculture could have added over 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. That’s the equivalent of more than seven years of current emissions from the burning of fossil fuels for energy.

“Globally [peatlands] are only 3 percent of the land surface but store about 30 percent of the global soil carbon,” said Chunjing Qiu, a researcher at the laboratory, a joint institution supported by French government research bodies and the Versailles Saint-Quentin University, and the first author of the study published Friday in the journal Science Advances.

The next time you buy growing medium for your petunias, check that the bag does not say peat.

Band Of The Day

This is a bit hardcore:

From the group’s website:

NǽnøcÿbbŒrg VbërrHolökäävsT (pronounced “Nanocyborg Uberholocaust”) is an extremely underground band that plays a dank, bleak, light-void music commonly referred to as either “ambient cosmic extreme funeral drone doom metal” or “post-noise”. Originating from the frostbitten heart of Antarctica in a South Pole Research Center, Dark Dude and Wavanova—two scientists who also happened to be musicians—realised one day they shared a common interest in drone, ambient, and experimental music, as well as that they were both in possession of a bass guitar and amp. The two soon planned to venture to the exact South Pole, the bleakest, coldest place on Earth, and record what would become NǽnøcÿbbŒrg VbërrHolökäävsT’s first album, The Ultimate Fate Of The Universe.

“Ambient cosmic extreme funeral drone doom metal.” Ya gotta like it.

 

And What Is It Really?

The conservatives – or far-right fringe, more accurately – has been using the woke, or critical race theory (CRT), as a boogie man for keeping their base together, a tactic that’s hardly a reason to be worried about CRT for someone from my perspective, which is an independent centrist. I tend to view the far-right as a dishonest pack of grifters mixed with a few deadly earnest types, whose motivations are not connected to reality.

But when someone I respect as a thinker expresses alarm, then I have to start wondering.

First, what is CRT? That question has been bothering me, and when WaPo recently published an anodyne article on the subject I read it with interest. This seems a good summary:

This way of thinking “compels us to confront critically the most explosive issue in American civilization: the historical centrality and complicity of law in upholding white supremacy,” some of the founding scholars wrote in 1995 in “Critical Race Theory: The Key Writings that Formed the Movement.”

While critical race theory does not have a set of doctrines, its scholars say they aim to overturn what they characterize as a bond between law and racial power. Critical race theory holds that race is a social construction upheld by legal systems and that racism is banal and common. Under this framework, George Floyd’s killing and Black Americans’ higher mortality rate from covid-19 are not aberrations, Bridges said.

“Critical race theory is an effort really to move beyond the focus on finding fault by impugning racist motives, racist bias, racist prejudice, racist animus and hatred to individuals, and looking at the ways in which racial inequality is embedded in structures in ways of which we are very often unaware,” said Kendall Thomas, co-editor of “Critical Race Theory: The Key Writings That Formed the Movement.”

But Andrew Sullivan expresses alarm (paywall, I suspect) at what he sees in the practice of CRT:

The genius of liberalism in unleashing human freedom and the human mind changed us more in centuries than we had changed in hundreds of millennia. And at its core, there is the model of the single, interchangeable, equal citizen, using reason to deliberate the common good with fellow citizens. No ultimate authority; just inquiry and provisional truth. No final answer: an endless conversation. No single power, but many in competition.

In this open-ended conversation, all can participate, conservatives and liberals, and will have successes and failures in their turn. What matters, both conservatives and liberals agree, is not the end result, but the liberal democratic, open-ended means. That shift — from specifying a single end to insisting only on playing by the rules — is the key origin of modern freedom.

My central problem with critical theory is that it takes precise aim at these very core principles and rejects them. By rejecting them, in the otherwise noble cause of helping the marginalized, it is a very seductive and potent threat to liberal civilization.

Am I exaggerating CRT’s aversion to liberal modernity? I don’t think I am. Here is how critical theory defines itself in one of its central documents. It questions the very foundations of “Enlightenment rationality, legal equality and Constitutional neutrality.” It begins with the assertion that these are not ways to further knowledge and enlarge human freedom. They are rather manifestations of white power over non-white bodies. Formal legal equality, they argue, the promise of the American experiment, has never been actual equality, even as, over the centuries, it has been extended to everyone. It is, rather, a system to perpetuate inequality forever, which is the single and only reason racial inequality is still here.

And much more, as Sullivan explains himself completely. It’s worth a read if you have a subscription, or are willing to pay a few bucks to see an honest critic’s concerns on one of the intellectual pushes of the last couple of decades.

In conjunction with this, it’s worth one other observation on my part. It’s quite possible that CRT advocates, explicitly or implicitly, point at liberal traditions of government, identify them with the United States government and the fate of the black community, and proclaim liberal modernity, to use Sullivan’s terminology, implicitly racist.

But there’s two problems here. The first is the common logical problem of conflating causality with correlation. But the second is more important, and that’s ignoring a fact of political life:

While the United States may proclaim liberal modernity as its goal, it has not achieved it. There is no identity relation between the two.

It’s undeniable that many of the constitutive States of the United States have demonstrated illiberal behaviors since the Founding, since the American Civil War, the Great War, World War II, Korea, Vietnam. To conflate those behaviors with liberal modernity is to say that black is white, 1 == 0, pick your oxymoron. To take the irrational hatreds and illogical supremacist behaviors of even high officials of the United States, which are clearly at odds with liberal modernity, and condemn liberal modernity based on that shallow reading of history, is to commit an intellectual error.

And to yell that this very attempt at debate demonstrates just those unacceptable attitudes is intellectually disastrous, and will lead to an unpleasant terminus for those who follow that philosophy to its end.

If, indeed, the suggestion that at the heart of CRT is an aversion to debate and the liberal modernity is, in fact, true.

I suspect we’ll find that CRT is a spectrum of opinions, on one end quite reasonable and rational, and at the other end the ideologues hang out, hamstrung by broken understandings of history and humanity. I look forward to seeing how this plays out.

Artist Of The Day

The robot Ai-Da:

Can art be created by that without self-agency? From … I assume the creators of Ai-Da:

The role and definition of art changes over time. Ai-Da’s work is art, because it reflects the enormous integration of technology in today’s society. We recognise ‘art’ means different things to different people.

Today, a dominant opinion is that art is created by the human, for other humans. This has not always been the case. The ancient Greeks felt art and creativity came from the Gods. Inspiration was divine inspiration. Today, a dominant mind-set is that of humanism, where art is an entirely human affair, stemming from human agency. However, current thinking suggests we are edging away from humanism, into a time where machines and algorithms influence our behaviour to a point where our ‘agency’ isn’t just our own. It is starting to get outsourced to the decisions and suggestions of algorithms, and complete human autonomy starts to look less robust. Ai-Da creates art, because art no longer has to be restrained by the requirement of human agency alone.

I am deeply suspicious of that statement, yet I am hesitant to address it. Are these random mechanical impulses? Is unintentional art art? Is it unintentional? Or is it anthropomorphication (type that three times fast!) to inflict human standards on a non-human entity?

Ai-Da’s website is here.

The Autocrat Dance

Metin Gurcan of AL-Monitor details the dance of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, now that his supine ally Donald Trump has been decisively rejected by the American electorate:

In a TV interview June 1, Erdogan conceded that his dialogue with Biden “has not been easy” thus far, unlike his “very peaceful and easy-going” phone diplomacy with Trump. Referring also to the terms of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, he said he “had never experienced such tension” with the White House, putting the blame on Biden for recognizing the Ottoman-era killings of Armenians as genocide.

Nevertheless, the row over the S-400s remains the most pressing, with Ankara still scrambling to find a solution that would satisfy Washington. It has floated several options, including the so-called Crete model – a reference to the Greek Cypriots’ controversial purchase of S-300 missiles from Russia in the 1990s, which ended up in storage on Greece’s island of Crete.

There are signs that Erdogan might propose a new formula to Biden — to deploy the S-400s under US control at the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, without any Russian involvement in their operation and maintenance. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed this week that Ankara would have “100% control” over the systems and no Russian military experts would be present in Turkey.

Ankara’s approach to the issue continues to strike many as superficial. With all that chatter on how Turkey would be the only one pressing the on-and-off button, Ankara has sounded as if it is a vacuum cleaner at stake and not a sophisticated missile system and, no wonder, failed to convince Washington.

I remain fascinated with the backsliding Turkey, which had achieved secular nationhood in the early 20th century, only to return to autocracy in the Islamist Erdogan. He appears to be a fixture in Turkey now, and Turkey is suffering for it – I have not commented on it, as I’m no expert on Turkish affairs, but I cannot help but notice the parallels between autocracies, including the foul-ups attributable to leaders with more ambition that competency – and who think they’ve been touched by the Divine.

And what of the future?

Mehmet Kocak, a columnist for the pro-government Islamist daily Yeni Akit, for instance, argues that bilateral ties are doomed to deteriorate further, recalling that Biden, in an interview before his election, advocated support for Turkey’s opposition to defeat Erdogan. Despite those remarks, “President Erdogan congratulated Joe Biden on his election and offered to open a new chapter in bilateral ties, but that, too, has remained unreciprocated,” he writes. According to such isolationist Islamists, any dialogue with Washington would be futile.

Biden’s clear-eyed view of the importance of democracy will leave Turkey in the cold so long as the leaders of America emerge from Biden’s camp – unless the citizens of Turkey kick out the Islamists who hated Mustafa Kemal for nearly a century. I don’t see that happening, as the Islamist’s advantage over the advocates of a secular government – namely, “In Allah’s name!” – seem insurmountable until those uttering that phrase are shown to be irredeemably corrupt.

That won’t be happening. Kemal only successfully instituted secular power because the Islamic Ottomans, who ruled Turkey until then, had failed utterly in World War I. A disaster of comparable proportions would be necessary in Turkey today to convince the populace of mistake of permitting the religious to institute religious governmental power.

Word Of The Day

Agonic lines:

Another common explanation for the Bermuda Triangle rests on magnetism. The Earth’s magnetic North Pole isn’t the same as its geographic North Pole, which means that compasses usually don’t point exactly north. Only along what’s known as agonic lines, which line up magnetic and geographic north, are compasses truly accurate.

One agonic line runs from Lake Superior down through the Gulf of Mexico near the Bermuda Triangle. One theory holds that mariners, usually accustomed to accounting for a discrepancy in their compass readings, may make mistakes when very near to the agonic line that lead them astray. Paired with the often shallow waters of the island-strewn Caribbean Sea, navigational errors could lead to boats running aground on hidden shoals. [“The Bermuda Triangle: What Science Can Tell Us About The Mysterious Ocean Region,” Nathaniel Scharping, Discover]

The Bermuda Triangle: Another example of a good myth that can’t be held down.

Or drowned.

Dishonesty As A Tool

Erick Erickson has an interesting observation to explain former President Trump’s popularity with the base:

“If you elect us, we will repeal Obamacare,” Republicans claimed in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016. Each victory brought a goalpost shift. Ultimately, the GOP never got rid of Obamacare. The same happened with Planned Parenthood. Despite Republican control, reconciliation processes that bypass the filibuster, and Republican presidents, Planned Parenthood funding remained.

Republicans are used to the kabuki theater their politicians engage in. The stylized performance, boastfulness on the campaign stage, and campaign ads and mail pieces inevitably lead to impressive speeches and theater in Congress before the inevitable and foreordained failure to keep promises. The epilogue is excuse making and blame.

Republican voters fell for it repeatedly and ultimately both caught on and empowered one man to burn it all down. Donald Trump, in 2016, got elected and did force through some changes to Obamacare and then, by executive order, finally took on Planned Parenthood. The enduring loyalty the Republican base has for Donald Trump can best be understood as Trump kept his core promise — to fight back and gut the Republican established [sic] that both denied its own existence and perfected ritualistic kabuki theater always designed to impress and always designed to fail.

I do remember speculation from twenty years ago that the Republicans were stringing single-issue voters along with constant promises concerning their issues of concern, chiefly abortion. It’s worth noting that Erickson is silent on another issue that animated the conservative base: gun control. The current lax laws, regulations, and Constitutional interpretations certainly would contaminate his thesis if he were to permit his reader to think about them.

And, if he did, then he’d be back to admitting that his fellow travelers have lost their way, having fallen in love – sort of – with a chronic practicioner of mendacity. This he’s come perilously close to doing several times, and I don’t read much of his material.

But his observation is an interesting factor in this soap opera we call American Politics.

I’m a little more skeptical of his prediction, though:

Democrats are engaged in the kabuki theater of foreordained defeat right now. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Joe Biden are promising to bring HR1, the Democrats’ progressive largesse of a voting reform package, for a vote. The filibuster is in the way so they are pledging to scrap that too. …

Ask yourself one question — do Democrats want federal taxpayer dollars funding the campaign of QAnon sympathetic Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene? HR1 would require federal dollars subsidize political campaigns. Do you really think Democrats who vilify Greene at every opportunity want to fund her campaign? HR1, written largely by progressive activists, is a grab back of many unworkable and publicly unpopular proposals. But progressive activists love them all.

Look, I’m not privy to Democratic plans, and while I’m an interested observer of Senate politics, I really am a bit clueless when it comes to questions that are mystifying even professional observers, such as the almost forced naivete of Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ) when it comes to the results of the current phone-it-in-filibuster, much less the abolition of the traditional majority wins rules of the Senate, as designed by the Founding Fathers.

And I’ve noticed that Democratic propaganda can get a little hysterical as well.

But in evaluating Erickson’s claim, I know a few things:

  • Erickson tends to get a lot of predictions wrong;
  • He forgets that Greene’s district is, by last measurement, deep red, and probably still is despite the January 6 insurrection and Greene’s absurd antics since her election, so giving her money is a no-op in great scheme of national politics;
  • The particular provision he frantically points at could easily be a negotiations sacrifice;
  • He’s once again forgetfully – maybe – morally equating the Democratic political machine with the Republican machine, omitting the observable fact that the latter is lead by Mr. Mendacity and has such dubious fourth-raters as Gaetz, Greene, Boebert, Gohmert, Gosar, Hunter, Collins, Bachmann, McConnell, Ryan, and many others as either current members of Congress, or felonious alumni. While the Democrats doubtless have a few malcontents in Congress as well, they’re neither as numerous, it appears, more discrete – or they change parties when they must, like this chap.

So I’m a little doubtful that the Democrats are leading their base on. It could be true. But I think the Democratic base is not nearly as well trained to swallow rank nonsense as the Republicans.

And this made me hoot with laughter:

Democrats will inevitably have hell to pay from their base as Republicans did. The difference between them and Republicans is Trump was actually far closer to mainstream America than the far left. That gives the GOP one more advantage moving forward even if the press and Democrats cannot admit it.

It’s one of those irrelevant remarks that is both false and insulting to the American electorate. The Great Liar has little relation to the voter in the trenches.

Word Of The Day

Ashlar:

Much of the Inca’s work on Machu Picchu, though impressive, is inconspicuous. Ken has estimated that 60 percent of the construction is underground. But what first strikes the visitor is the exquisite stonework of the city’s most elegant buildings. Without mortar, using a technique called ashlar, the Inca fit finely carved granite stones together with such precision that a piece of paper cannot be inserted between them. Bingham called one side of the Temple of the Sun, a long stretch of perfectly spaced rectangular rocks, “the most beautiful wall in South America.” [“How The Inca Built Machu Picchu“, Cody Cottier, Discover (May 18, 2021)

An example:

Source: Wikipedia

When The Divine Reaches Down With A Lesson

A bit of guilty schadenfreude on my part, I fear:

When another boat began circling their vessel in a lake on Memorial Day weekend, a group from Washington assumed they were trying to signal support for their gay pride flags.

But then someone on the other boat flipped a middle finger and yelled something about “gays” and “flags,” a passenger on the boat said. So the group started recording in case the situation escalated.

It did — but not how they might have expected.

Moments later, the other boat burst into flames, forcing its passengers to jump into the lake — and leaving the victims to become rescuers as they filmed a moment that turned into a viral video this week. [WaPo]

Sadly, I fear the Divine’s attempt at a teachable moment was a flop:

“The passengers were quite rude, shouting over us, ignoring my [inquiries] about their well being when on the 911 call and smoking a Vape pen on our boat without even so much as asking if they could; several passengers of our boat have asthma,” Robbie told The Post.

Eventually, police arrived to extinguish the flames. The rescued boaters left to jump on a friend’s vessel without saying thank you, Robbie said.

Haters with no class, I fear.

Lazy Voters

When I was young, I thought term limits were a good idea.

I’ve since changed my mind. For years now I’ve suggested that losing accumulated experience for no particular reason other than length of tenure seemed like a waste of hard-won skills and talents. If a member of Congress is unworthy, then the voters should recognize that and kick them out. That is the job of the voters, after all, and term limits is a usurpation of the voters’ rights.

I say this as a lead-in to this reporting:

Norm Ornstein, a political scientist at the American Enterprise Institute, says term limits might bring in younger senators — but also politicians less interested in legislating and more interested in advancing themselves. That means the real power effectively ends up in the hands of staffers and lobbyists.

He points to California, which enacted state legislature term limits in 1990 and in 2012 modified them to create a lifetime maximum of 12 years.

“The whole idea was to channel ambition in a different way: If you’re only there for a limited period of time, you’re going to be more focused on doing the right thing,” he says. “The reality is exactly the opposite: What ends up happening is you channel ambition in exactly the wrong way. There is less interest in institutional preservation or maintenance. Why would you do something that benefits an institution that you’re going to be leaving? You want to do something that has a big splash now so that you can use it to move to your next job.”

Ornstein is concerned about the loss of institutional memory and relationships (especially in the Senate) if members would be limited to two terms. Critics of term limits point to Ted Kennedy, who served 46 years and did most of his important legislation during his last terms. Or they cite Bob Dole and Joe Biden, who did significant work throughout very long careers. [WaPo]

I might also note that in a term-limit world, there is less motivation to become better at your job, since it’ll be disappearing soon enough. If we want a really amateur Congress, then term limits is the way to go. Then, for the conservative reader, the ‘deep state’ becomes ever more important.

Back To Tradition, Ctd

For those who wondered, in the race to replace former Rep Deb Haaland (D-NM) after her move to Secretary of Interior, the winner is Melanie Stansbury (D-NM).

On Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury easily defeated Republican state Sen. Mark Moores by 25 percentage points in a special House election in New Mexico for Interior Secretary Deb Haaland’s old seat. [FiveThirtyEight]

This suggests that the observed thesis of her opponent, Mark Moores (R-NM), that Stansbury backed weakening law enforcement & punishment, aka fear-mongering, did not prove effective. Still, it’s worth considering the alternative hypothesis that independents are not willing to trust Republicans regardless of their opponents, but as FiveThirtyEight points out that this is the fourth special election of the cycle, and that, if anything, traditional margins are exaggerated in both directions, it’s probably more wishful thinking. The New Mexico district is heavily Democratic and voted hat way. The Republican tactic didn’t work in a Democratic district. It tends to say fear-mongering is ineffective, at least in New Mexico’s liberal districts, but generalizing to competitive districts nation-wide is probably premature.

They’re Not All Jerks

Rep Peter Meijer (R-MI) over the weekend:

I can only hope the ears of Greene, Gohmert, and a few others caught fire.

Humor Is Destructive

Nature is reporting on he long term results of a scientific hoax tool:

Nonsensical research papers generated by a computer program are still popping up in the scientific literature many years after the problem was first seen, a study has revealed1. Some publishers have told Nature they will take down the papers, which could result in more than 200 retractions.

The issue began in 2005, when three PhD students created paper-generating software called SCIgen for “maximum amusement”, and to show that some conferences would accept meaningless papers. The program cobbles together words to generate research articles with random titles, text and charts, easily spotted as gibberish by a human reader. It is free to download, and anyone can use it.

By 2012, computer scientist Cyril Labbé had found 85 fake SCIgen papers in conferences published by the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE); he went on to find more than 120 fake SCIgen papers published by the IEEE and by Springer2. It was unclear who had generated the papers or why. The articles were subsequently retracted — or sometimes deleted — and Labbé released a website allowing anyone to upload a manuscript and check whether it seems to be a SCIgen invention. Springer also sponsored a PhD project to help spot SCIgen papers, which resulted in free software called SciDetect. (Springer is now part of Springer Nature; Nature’s news team is editorially independent of its publisher.)

Sometimes it seems like the world is collapsing into chaos, doesn’t it? And why does it have to center on my field?

… the researchers identified 243 nonsense articles created entirely or partly by SCIgen, they report in a study published on 26 May1. These articles, published between 2008 and 2020, appeared in various journals, conference proceedings and preprint sites, and were mostly in the computer-science field. Some appeared in open-access journals; others were paywalled. Forty-six of them had already been retracted or deleted from the websites where they were first published.

Maybe humans shouldn’t be allowed to do anything that requires being responsibility.

Just A Random Thought

It occurred to me today that to apply the adjective amazing to anything a Divinity allegedly does is a gross misunderstanding of what it means to be Divine.

That is, nothing a Divinity does is amazing.

Because, for a God, that amazing thing is everyday.

So Divinities are not amazing.

I See GoFundMe Accounts In Their Futures

Over the weekend, the Democratic contingent in the Texas Legislature used a last resort measure to abort more restrictions on voting by the GOP:

Texas Democrats on Sunday night used every parliamentary tool at their disposal to effectively kill a bill that would add new restrictions to elections in the state, ultimately staging a walkout to prevent a vote from being held before a midnight deadline. [NBC News]

How bad are the restrictions? Steve Benen thinks they’re fairly awful:

Republicans in the Lone Star State went to great lengths to craft a bill, negotiated in secret, that attacked the franchise in a multifaceted way, making it more difficult to cast absentee ballots, while curtailing early voting, banning drive-through voting, empowering partisan poll watchers, and even discouraging Texans from transporting voters to polling places. The common thread tying together nearly all of these provisions was an unsubtle attempt to make it harder for Black and Latino voters to participate in their own democracy.

What’s more, Republicans also included provisions to make it easier for state judges to overturn election results, inviting future electoral crises. For all intents and purposes, the proposal was designed to move Texas away from democracy itself.

Without having read proposed legislation myself – and perhaps gotten a law degree and a degree in philosophy – it’s hard for me to say if they’re awful or just bad. However, in view of the circumstantial evidence of

  1. no evidence of systemic fraud;
  2. a GOP full of doubtful characters;
  3. a GOP which didn’t even bother to craft an agenda for the 2020 elections – they literally took the 2016 version and stamped 2020 on it, from what I’ve read;
  4. a GOP committed to its own infallibility, meaning modifying its policies is now considered anathema

I’m inclined to believe these are the actions of a Party that, not knowing how to appeal to an increasingly skeptical electorate, and convinced that its political tenets are holy and good – and, in some ways, that’s a literal belief, not an analogy – is becoming frantic to shape the rules to favor it and its agenda, rather than sell its agenda to the voters – and modify it as necessary.

I wouldn’t take the assertions of such pundits as Erick Erickson that the Democrats are engaged in hypocrisy too seriously, as he wishes to see this somehow equated to a filibuster. But let’s stipulated to it. Then we realize that when in the midst of a game in which the rules are not changing, one does not put aside a tool or rule just because it may be repugnant in another arena or context. Crippling oneself is not a virtue.

Finally, I found King Governor Abbot’s (R-TX) reaction a trifle autocratic:

Democrats vowed to continue to fight a Texas bill that would add restrictions on voting as Republican Gov. Greg Abbott threatened to cut off funding for the Legislature if they do so.

“I will veto Article 10 of the budget passed by the legislature. Article 10 funds the legislative branch,” Abbott tweeted Monday. “No pay for those who abandon their responsibilities. Stay tuned.” [NBC News]

While fans of hardball politics may argue that the Emperor Abbot is perfectly within his rights to call a special session and threaten the pay of the legislators, they forget that legislatures are not paid to kow-tow to the Governor; they are paid to exercise their best judgment. Financial coercion is a corrupt approach to politics. The Democrats chose to pay the cost of terminating the Legislative session prematurely, meaning certain of their legislation was not given final votes, in order to abort voting restrictions that they consider beyond the pale.

Abbot and his cronies didn’t get what they wanted? Tough shit, buds. The Democrats played the game by the rules and the GOP should just swallow the rocks they were handed. Calling a Special Session is just as pathetic as Trump whining, without evidence, that the election was stolen from him.

Punishing legislators for doing their jobs is corruption.