Briefly getting back to the Covid-19 epidemic, this particular bit of statistics is a useful reminder that Covid-19 is not the flu:
it helps to think about what Covid has done so far to a representative group of 75,000 American adults: It has killed roughly 150 of them and sent several hundred more to the hospital. The vaccines reduce those numbers to zero and nearly zero, based on the research trials.
Zero isn’t even the most relevant benchmark. A typical U.S. flu season kills between five and 15 out of every 75,000 adults and hospitalizes more than 100 of them. [The New York Times]
A death rate, in the current medical knowledge and services context, that’s more than 10X the flu’s death rate.
This is in the context of every single vaccine so far announcing results eliminates death as an outcome, which is a very good result indeed.
I assume you would agree that any vaccine that transforms Covid into something much milder than a typical flu deserves to be called effective. But that is not the scientific definition. When you read that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 66 percent effective or that the Novavax vaccine was 89 percent effective, those numbers are referring to the prevention of all illness. They count mild symptoms as a failure.
“In terms of the severe outcomes, which is what we really care about, the news is fantastic,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said.
Chins up, folks, and stay vigilant until you’ve had the jab + 3 weeks.
