I’ve been watching but not talking about the most important races this cycle, those in the Senate, mostly for lack of time. I consider them the most important because the Senate confirms nominees to government positions, and if Biden wins the Presidential election, but Senator Mitch “No” McConnell (R-KY) is still the Majority Leader after the election, then Americans are in for a miserable four years.
That said, I’m not presenting a detailed analysis of the polls. moddesttraveler on The Daily Kos has a roundup of recent polls, and The Daily Kos‘ Morning Digest of political news also presents a fluid view of the races. I think, absent an unforeseeable disaster, we can expect the Senate to swing to the Democrats, and I would be disappointed if it’s not a 55 (including the two Independents) – 45 advantage.
Who still seems safe among Republican candidates? Incumbent Tom Cotton (R-AR), with no opponent, remains a shoe-in, so long as his shoe doesn’t have a hole in it. Idaho doesn’t seem to have any polls, so it’s impossible to be definitive, but it appears incumbent Jim Risch will breeze in – unless challenger Paulette Jordan has a hidden constituency.
It’s hard to see how Mitch McConnell himself will fall, although with 18 days left, there’s still time for him to stumble.
Polling for the Louisiana seat of Republican Bill Cassidy doesn’t seem to exist, but it’s one of those jungle elections, where a runoff with the top two will occur if no one reaches 50%. This style favors the incumbent, Cassidy, so I feel he has little to worry about. Senator Sasse (R-NE), who has been strategically criticizing President Trump, should have no troubles keeping his seat, nor should James Inhofe of solidly conservative Oklahoma, nor Senator Rounds (who?) of South Dakota.
And then there’s the surprises, which could go south for incumbents with the few days left and Trump’s amateurism coming to the fore. Senator Hyde-Smith (R-MS) is reportedly in an unexpectedly tough battle with Mike Espy (R-MS). Could Cassidy be in trouble as well? How about the Tennessee race for Lamar Alexander’s seat, who’s retiring? Will incumbent Cornyn fall to Heggar in purple Texas, after leading all this time?
This will be an agonizing three weeks for those Republican incumbents who are tied to Trump’s delusions.
