If you simplify reality and assume that every driver has an N chance of having an accident – say, hitting and killing a pedestrian – then it seems likely that increasing the number of drivers and trips will end up killing more people.
And that seems to be the salient conclusion of this National Bureau of Economic Research report:
While ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft provide convenient transportation and flexible job opportunities, a new study suggests that these benefits may also come with a number of costs. Fatalities among automobile occupants and pedestrians, gasoline consumption, and traffic congestion have all risen since the ride-hailing services were launched in 2010, while public transportation ridership has fallen.
There are lots of caveats, of course – correlation vs causation, other factors such as smartphone distractions, and they think accident rates might go down as drivers gain experience.
I doubt it. I cannot help but note that ride hailing does not result in a reduction of trips, but in an increase in trips, speaking intuitively. Contrast this to mass transit, such as buses and subways, where there’s one driver responsible for far more passengers.
Of course there’s going to be more accidents with ride hailing.
Perhaps Uber, Lyft, and all the others should be subject to an additional tax to recover the productivity of those who are killed by them.
