A while back I expressed disbelief at Russian statistics concerning the Covid-19 outbreak. That was almost 4 weeks ago. Since then, their statistics have gotten worse:
From 43 to 1000+ fatalities in almost four weeks isn’t the worst possible showing, but it’s a little worrying, especially if the numbers aren’t necessarily trustworthy, as WaPo confirms:
Testing throughout February and most of March was handled by a single lab in Siberia, meaning that most covid-19 cases across Russia’s 11 time zones were being wrongly classified as pneumonia, bronchitis, flu, etc. It didn’t help that authorities criminalized the spread of “false information” or that they arrested a prominent doctor for challenging official statistics as she tried to deliver masks to an impoverished rural hospital.
Now, as social media users are sharing videos of ambulances lined up for miles waiting to deposit patients in overcrowded Moscow hospitals, it’s no longer possible to claim that all is under control. The Russian health-care system was already struggling with a number of chronic health conditions (tuberculosis, heart disease, alcoholism, etc.) and many public health experts worry that the pandemic might bring matters to a breaking point. Russia is also one of the rare countries that’s simultaneously coping with low life expectancy and a graying population, making it particularly vulnerable to covid-19. Putin’s tendency to delegate decisions on pandemic policy to regional governors might help insulate him from political fallout in the near term, but it is unlikely to lead to a well-managed policy over the longer term.
And …
On April 20, 500 people in Vladikavkaz violated a local lockdown order to protest against the lack of reliable information on the spread of covid-19, and protests have also taken place in Rostov and smaller cities that do not typically register big opposition demonstrations.
While no real threat to Putin, this may compound the problem. The deal to cut oil production may be a relief for Putin, even if it blunts his drive to control oil markets.
On a related point, this is why amateurs like George Gilder and Robert Epstein are nothing more than troublemakers when it comes to data analysis. The data worlds they deal in may seem dirty, but the honest fact is that their worlds are spotless compared to the epidemiologist, whose data sources, at the best of times, are flawed due to lack of skills or warning, and when it’s not the best of times, flawed due to political expedience.
