Not much is making it through the congestion clogging my brain as I undergo the bi-annual head cold which is my doom, but through all the analyses of the Qassim Soleimani killing I haven’t seen anyone talking about how Iran really might respond.
I mean, they can run around screaming for revenge, kill some Western aid workers, and be done, or launch an attack on an American naval vessel, but this doesn’t really get to the heart of the matter: What does Iran really want to accomplish?
If you shrug and say, Hurt America badly!, well, that’s rather dodging the question. Anyone who’s played a thoughtful, competitive game is well aware that analyzing your opponents methods in the context of their goals is of vital importance. And when you Hurt America badly!, you have to define what that means. Or, more accurately, what the leaders of Iran might mean by that.
Of course, a military response is visible and satisfying, but the riposte from the American military might be devastating to the Islamic Republic of Iran – after all, a visible sign that Allah is not on your side could be dispiriting to the masses – it could even foment revolt. And, in the end, the United States can always build a new ship or replace a few dead troops, tragic as it may be to say. Our resources are amazing.
But we’re the Great Satan, so I wonder if Iran’s leaders are getting together to think about this more deeply. They might ask themselves, What has hurt the United States the most over the last couple of decades? And I fear their answer might be this:
Donald J. Trump in the White House.
If they come to that conclusion, we may see a response designed to rally American support behind the worst President the United States has had the misfortune to have in office. Another four years of Trump? More division, polarization, mistreatment of refugees and immigrants, more encouragement of rabid racism.
Over the next six months, historians may trace the future of the United States, not Iran.
