The results of the third and final gubernatorial contest of 2019 are in, and the Democrats have now won two out of three. All three contests were in Deep South states, so what does Louisiana’s result have to say about the future of the Republicans in the great State of Louisiana?
Approaching this as I did with Kentucky, again I suspect the quality and reputations of local candidates are more important than their ideological labels, although the latter does play into the game. First, some charts. Keep in mind that Louisiana runs a jungle primary for its Senatorial and gubernatorial elections, which can result in highly fragmented votes. If no one wins the primary with > 50% of the vote, it proceeds to a runoff for the top two candidates, and so it can appear that a candidate has beaten their opponents by large margins when it’s not really true from a Party perspective.
And, once again, I have chosen to show vote totals rather than percentages as a way to judge the magnitude of interest in the contests.
While there’s been a declining general interest in the runs for the Senate, perhaps reflecting the quality or reputations of the candidates, it appears the Republicans have been making gains and taking control of late.
Much like Kentucky, Trump’s victory margin in Louisiana appears to reflect a long term trend for the State.
And, yet, when it comes to the governor’s seat, the Democrats have gained control.
This may all come down to the candidates. In 2015, Democrat Edwards, a lawyer with state house and military experience and traditionally conservative credentials, beat Republican Senator Vitter, damaged by scandal; Edwards won again yesterday against political novice and millionaire businessman Eddie Rispone. Coming into the contest, Edwards had high approval ratings from the state’s residents; Rispone, without experience, had President Trump, who endorsed him several times and visited the state for a campaign rally.
It was a close contest, but Edwards wins. Does it mean the Democrats have a bright future in the Bayou State? I think it’ll all hinge on the quality of their candidates, which is good for politics, for local races, but when it comes to the Presidential, it’ll be more difficult to judge. Was Clinton that awful a candidate? Maybe she was. Or maybe the Republican effort to tar her as awful was successful. Trump reportedly has approval ratings in excess of 50% in Louisiana, which sounds positive and roughly in the ballpark of the 2016 election.
We’ll just have to wait and see.
